Archive for Brett Wallace

For a team that is in full on rebuilding mode, it’s a little strange that the Astros infield is likely to be populated by the same players that were there last year. It’s a good thing to some degree because it means they’ve found a few guys who can stick at their position. The only bad news is that the guys they hope will stick at the remaining positions aren’t quite ready for the show yet.

The strength of the current infield is most definitely up the middle. Jose Altuve and Jason Castro had the most fantasy value on the team last year according to both our valuations and ESPN’s player rater. Despite the infield being stagnant, the outfield is going to look a bit different with Dexter Fowler now on the squad and George Springer on the way. That’s going to help the fantasy value of Altuve and Castro. Steamer projects Altuve to score 21 more runs than he did last year and projects Castro for 13 more RBI. Steamer is actually the most conservative of the projection models on Castro’s RBI total. Oliver has him at 78 RBI, and the fan projections have him at 74.

Aside from the shared benefit that will be the improved lineup around them, Altuve and Castro could actually be headed in different directions this year. Read the rest of this entry »

You might think that being “lucky” enough to write about the potentially dreadful Houston infield might be a source of consternation for me. Not quite! At least I get Jose Altuve, who is potentially the only obvious standard-league draftable player on the entire Astros roster outside of maybe Bud Norris and whomever ends up collecting what few saves there might be. Read the rest of this entry »

Brett Wallace was drafted in the first round of 2008, and he subsequently compiled an impressive minor league career line of .307/.381/.491 over 400 games. 315 of those games were at the AAA level for five different teams, and peppered in between was one short and disappointing debut and one long and mostly disappointing season. Brett Wallace could very well be the poster boy for the quad-A label. And yet he was very useful for a period of time in 2011 and his recent performance for the Houston Astros has me wondering if he’s going to make this an annual occurrence.

In his first 31 games in 2011, it looked like the Wallace that many fantasy enthusiasts were waiting for had finally arrived. He had a .353/.421/.500 triple slash with a pair of home runs to go with nine doubles and ten runs batted in. Small sample size mavens were quick to point out his over-.400 BABIP but even when it started to regress, Wallace continued to produce. Over his next 38 games, he hit .287/.396/.417 with another pair of home runs, nine more doubles, and 11 RBI.

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Sitting just 4.5 games out of first place in the NL West (6.5 out of the wild card), it was just a matter of time before the Arizona Diamondbacks did something to fill that gaping hole they’ve had a third base all season. They came into the year with high hopes that Ryan Roberts would be able to duplicate his breakout 2011 numbers. When he failed, they turned to the underwhelming Cody Ransom. When that didn’t work, they tried bringing up Josh Bell. Another bust. They ultimately went back to Roberts, but for just a short time as he was soon demoted and traded and the D-Backs went with minor leaguer Ryan Wheeler while they regrouped and plotted their next move. That moved showed up on Sunday when Arizona announced they had traded minor leaguers Bobby Borchering and Marc Krauss to the Astros for third baseman Chris Johnson. While the move gives the Diamondbacks and improved situation at the hot corner, it may not be so great for fantasy owners. Read the rest of this entry »

Wow. Scour that waiver wire and it’s slim pickins out there, for sure. Trying to find some legitimate help can be a daunting task, especially if you’re looking to pick someone up for an extended period of time. So you’ve got to find the door where opportunity is knocking the loudest. Here are two guys who may not actually be Mr. Right, but can at least be Mr. Right-Now. Read the rest of this entry »

The Houston Astros are headed for the American League West in 2013 in order to provide balance among divisions, and in the process, apparently raise the ire of the Houston faithful. The move certainly has fantasy implications for the Astros pitchers as most research points to fewer strikeouts and higher ERA’s when players move from the NL to the AL. But one player that could be impacted by the move is Brett Wallace.

First of all, you have to admit that it’s a fitting punctuation to Wallace’s travels that his entire team is moving divisions. After being the first selection in the 2008 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals, Wallace has already had three more employers. He was traded by the Cardinals in July of 2009 in a package for Matt Holliday, traded five months later to the Blue Jays for Michael Taylor, and then dealt six months later to the Astros for Anthony Gose. Perhaps he’s run out of geographical locations as a fit and whatever karma he’s carrying decided that his entire team needed a fresh change as well. But I digress. A lot.

It’s not the statistical effect of moving from the NL to the AL that will impact Wallace necessarily — it’s the availability of the designated hitter. So let’s take a brief look at why.

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We’re a third of the through the season, so I’d like to take a look at which players have provided the best production relative to their auction cost in ottoneu leagues…and by extension, probably much of fantasy baseball.  While this is specific to ottoneu, I think this will apply to most of fantasy baseball.

We’ll start today with catchers and corner infielders.  I’ll give you the top three values at that position, plus my pick for the player of those three that is least likely to regress (or, perhaps, the player likely to regress the least).   Avg. Cost is just their current average cost in ottoneu, whereas the “Performed As” number is essentially an measure of what the dollar value would be for performance at this level for an entire season (using the lwts-based FanGraphs Points system; methods description at the bottom).  Expect this to change by season’s end: these guys are all overperforming, and are all good bets to regress to some degree.

Catcher

My Pick: Ramon Hernandez Read the rest of this entry »

Right off the bat, I’ll tell you…bargain shopping for first basemen is a risky way of running your team.  In fact, I don’t recommend it at all.  Real success is found in the premier mashers, and I always recommend you draft at least one.  But if your league uses a corner infielder and/or a DH/utility slot, then picking up a super cheap first baseman can turn into a very economical boost in offensive production. Read the rest of this entry »

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Barry Enright – Arizona Diamondbacks (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

He began this year repeating Double-A, which is generally not something you want a 24-year old to be doing. However, Enright dominated in his second go-round in Mobile, as he regained his strikeout rate (8.0 K/9) and did even better limiting walks (1.4 BB/9). But instead of going to Triple-A, Arizona called him up to replace Dontrelle Willis in the rotation. Enright has been solid, with 2 W and a 6.31 K/9 in six starts. His ERA is a nifty 2.78 but both his FIP (3.90) and xFIP (4.68) paint a different picture. The past three seasons in the minors, Enright has a 0.9 HR/9 ratio and this year he has a 0.76 major league rate, so perhaps his talent level is closer to his FIP, which would make him worthwhile. Enright is not a star but he has a chance to give fantasy owners a league average ERA, something not many starters hanging around the waiver wire in August can do.

Logan Morrison – Florida Marlins (owned in 2% of Yahoo! leagues)

With Chris Coghlan going on the DL, the Marlins called up Morrison to become their starting left fielder. With the trade of Jorge Cantu, Morrison has a good chance to stick around even when Coghlan returns, as Coghlan is a former infielder. Morrison has gotten off to a poor start but he is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and is unlikely to continue with a .214 AVG. Morrison will not offer much in SB and he does not have typical power for a 1B. But he is a pure hitter and those in leagues that count OBP should definitely pick up Morrison for the remainder of the season.

Brett Wallace – Houston Astros (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

The 13th player selected in the 2008 Draft, Wallace is now with his fourth organization. Normally that is not a very good sign, as teams generally do not trade top prospects. But at least some of the concern surrounding Wallace was his defensive position and now he is primed to take over as the Astros first baseman. Wallace brings power potential and anyone on the wire who can produce HRs is always a welcome sight. He hit 18 HR in Triple-A this season. Wallace is not the overall hitter that Morrison is but if you are in search of power, he is the better choice for 2010.

For a player taken with the 13th overall pick in the 2008 draft, Brett Wallace sure has spent a lot of time packing suitcases. The Arizona State Sun Devil star was originally selected by the Cardinals, but he was shipped to the A’s as part of a trade for Matt Holliday last July. Oakland then swapped him to the Blue Jays this past off-season in a rare prospect challenge trade, with outfielder Michael Taylor going to the green and gold. And yesterday, the Astros acquired Wallace in exchange for Anthony Gose, a 19-year-old OF prospect just picked up in the Roy Oswalt deal with the Phillies. In Houston, “The Walrus” looks like the heir apparent to Lance Berkman at first base.

Wallace was a third baseman in college, and he mostly manned the hot corner in the minors up until this season. But scouts panned his work there (Baseball America said he “lacks the agility and athleticism for the position”), and Sean Smith’s Total Zone rated him as a poor fielder. The stoutly-built 23-year-old shifted to first base with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate in 2010. It’s not much of an exaggeration to say that Wallace’s value lies entirely in the quality of his bat. So, how good is that bat?

Here’s what Baseball America had to say about his offensive ability prior to the ’08 draft:

Many see the best natural hitter in the West. Wallace has a strong swing with above-average bat speed; his swing path stays in the zone a long time and he has outstanding plate discipline…Those that don’t care for him cite his body and the short careers of players built similarly, such as Bob Hamelin. Wallace’s bat should get him drafted in the first round regardless, and most scouts give him at least above-average raw power grades.

Wallace hit the ground running in pro ball in 2008, putting up a .337/.427/.530 line in 234 plate appearances spent mostly in the Low-A Midwest League (he also logged some time in the Double-A Texas League). The lefty hitter walked in 8.1% of his PA, punched out 19.3% and had a .193 ISO. Wallace didn’t draw a ton of walks and he did benefit from a .400+ BABIP, but it was still a quality debut.

Since then, Wallace has hit well, though it would be difficult to say that he has lived up to the “hitting machine” label often bestowed upon him. Last season, he batted a combined .293/.367/.455 in 600 PA taken in Texas League and the Triple-A Pacific Coast League (for the affiliates of both the A’s and Cardinals). He worked a free pass just 7.8%, while striking out 21.8% and posting a .162 ISO. In 2010, Wallace has hit .301/.359/.509 in 423 PCL plate appearances. Wallace has walked 6.4%, whiffed 21.6% and holds a .208 ISO. It’s worth noting that Cashman Field, home of the Las Vegas 51’s, is a fantastic offensive environment. According to Minor League Splits, Wallace’s park-adjusted line is .287/.349/.479.

Considering Wallace’s limited positional value, I think it’s fair to say that his lumber to date has been somewhat underwhelming. Though BA once praised his plate approach, Wallace hasn’t drawn all that many walks. And that above-average raw power hasn’t really been on full display. It’s not that he projects poorly in the majors, but his secondary skills don’t exactly stand out a position with a cumulative .270/.355/.460 triple-slash in 2010. Wallace could become an average starter at first base, perhaps a tick above that if you’re optimistic. But I don’t see a future offensive juggernaut here.