Catcher, 1B, 3B: Biggest surprises (ottoneu lwts)

We’re a third of the through the season, so I’d like to take a look at which players have provided the best production relative to their auction cost in ottoneu leagues…and by extension, probably much of fantasy baseball.  While this is specific to ottoneu, I think this will apply to most of fantasy baseball.

We’ll start today with catchers and corner infielders.  I’ll give you the top three values at that position, plus my pick for the player of those three that is least likely to regress (or, perhaps, the player likely to regress the least).   Avg. Cost is just their current average cost in ottoneu, whereas the “Performed As” number is essentially an measure of what the dollar value would be for performance at this level for an entire season (using the lwts-based FanGraphs Points system; methods description at the bottom).  Expect this to change by season’s end: these guys are all overperforming, and are all good bets to regress to some degree.

Catcher

Alex Avila, DET Avg. Cost: $1.33 Performed As: $26 Value: +$25

Ramon Hernandez, CIN Avg. Cost: $1.24 Performed As: $22 Value: +$21

Russell Martin, NYY Avg. Cost: $3.86 Performed As: $22 Value: +$18

My Pick: Ramon Hernandez

Granted, I’m a Reds fan, so maybe I’m just a homer.  In truth, I’m not wild about any of these three: I’m not as high on Avila as most seem to be, and I expect Martin to break down any second now.  But Ramon Hernandez is having a second consecutive excellent season with the bat.  His timeshare with the Reds seems to have helped him stay healthy and rested over that span.  His .231 ISO to date would be the best of his career.  While that 23% HR/FB ratio is bound to be much closer to his career rate of 11.6% the rest of the way, it’s still true that he’s shown opposite field power this year that he hasn’t demonstrated since he was in his prime.

He’s not walking much (BB% might actually go up?), but his strikeouts are down.  I think he’s a good bet to finish with a bit better than league average numbers in ~350 PA’s.  Some fantasy owners might not be excited about Hernandez given that he’s a close to a 50% timeshare, but remember that ottoneu caps your two catchers at 162 games total.  If Hernandez can produce at anything even close to what he’s done over the remainder of the season, that’s a heck of an asset to have.

Others: Jonathan Lucroy (+$17), Chris Iannetta (+$15), Mike Napoli (+$14), Yadier Molina (+$12), Miguel Montero (+$10), J.P. Arencibia (+$10)

 

First Base

Gaby Sanchez, FLA Avg. Cost $4.86 Performed As: $41 Value: +$36

Todd Helton, COL Avg. Cost: $1.79 Performed As: $23 Value: +$21

Brett Wallace, HOU Avg. Cost: $2.22 Performed As: $23 Value: +$21

My Pick: Gaby Sanchez

I don’t think Sanchez will post a .401 wOBA by the season’s end.  But I think, he’s a solid hitter who has shown some meaningful improvements.  Most appealing to me is the uptick in his walk rate, and simultaneous down-tick in his strikeout rate.  This is driven by what looks like a change in approach, as he’s swinging at almost 5% fewer pitches than last year.

Also encouraging is the uptick in his HR/FB%, which has jumped from 9% last year to 12% this year.  It’s entirely possible that the power boost is sustainable–it’s pretty modest, and perhaps he’s swinging only at pitches he can handle, resulting in better contact and better power (even if not more contact overall).  I’m not sure if he’ll cross the 30 home run mark this year, but he’s got a shot at it.

Others: Ike Davis (+$20), Paul Konerko (+$17), Justin Smoak (+$14), Juan Miranda (+$12), Joey Votto (+$6)

Third Base

Jose Bautista, TOR Avg. Cost $29.72 Performed As: $109 Value: +$79

Alex Gordon, KCR Avg. Cost: $5.07 Performed As: $37 Value: +$32

Greg Dobbs, FLA Avg. Cost: $1.00 Performed As: $22 Value: +$21

My Pick: Jose Bautista

You’d never pay $109 for a player.  But that’s because you could never reasonably project that a player would perform at the Bondsian levels that Bautista has over a full season.  That said, of the three, he’s the guy I’d most expect to exceed his salary (which is already moderately high) the rest of the way.  I still expect him to regress, and perhaps regress considerably.  But he’s been so ridiculous that a bit of regression would still have him one of the best fantasy players in baseball.  I mean, if nothing else, pitchers are likely to keep pitching around him (38% balls in zone this year vs. 46% league average) for the foreseeable future, so the walks should be there.

THT’s Oliver projects him to hit .274/.382/.579 the rest of the way, while ZiPS has him at .272/.395/.571.  Those seem reasonable, and that level of performance is easily worth $30 over a full season.

Others: Casey Blake (+$19), Chipper Jones (+$15), David Freese (+$14), Chase Headley (+$14)

Methods (you can skip this if you don’t care!): here is what I did to generate the performance $’s.  First, I used average auction values to identify replacement level players at each position, which I defined as players averaging less than $2.  Based on their average production this year, I calculated a replacement level baseline average points per PA or IP at each position (note: there is selection bias here, but this approach worked better than others I tried).  Next, I calculated the extra points per game that players have produced for their owners above those replacement levels.  And then, I used model II regression to calculate an equation comparing average extra points per game to player cost, which allowed me to find an average $ per extra point above replacement players conversion.  Finally, knowing a) replacement production, b) an average marginal points per marginal $ conversion, and c) actual production for each player, I could calculate a “production salary” and compare that to their actual salary.  If you’d like to know more, feel free to ask.