First Basemen for $1: Wallace, Belt & The Mess in Arizona

Right off the bat, I’ll tell you…bargain shopping for first basemen is a risky way of running your team.  In fact, I don’t recommend it at all.  Real success is found in the premier mashers, and I always recommend you draft at least one.  But if your league uses a corner infielder and/or a DH/utility slot, then picking up a super cheap first baseman can turn into a very economical boost in offensive production.

Houston, We Have a Problem…Or Maybe We Don’t:  Brett Wallace

It could be sink or swim this year for the well traveled former first rounder who should begin this season as the Astros starting first baseman.  It’s fair to say that it’s been a bumpy ride for #13 pick in the 2008 draft as he sits on his 4th team in 3 years, been moved across the diamond to first due to a lack of defensive skills, and has failed to show any of the plate discipline and hitting prowess that Baseball America once raved about.  While minor league numbers like batting average, BABIP, and even the often cited wOBA had been solid for Wallace, the only numbers that translated during his 2010 call up with Houston were his unfortunately low walk rate and his far to high K%.

Perhaps the fresh start this year and the “defensive monkey off his back” will enable Wallace to relax a little more at the plate and get back to what he does best, hitting.  It’s unfortunate that Bill James didn’t even include Wallace in his projections this season, and the Marcel numbers don’t look too appealing, but he’s got a golden opportunity right now and, with a strong start, could be worth a buck and bench spot during your draft this season.

More Rookie Love by the Bay:  Brandon Belt

There’s plenty of hype in the Bay right now as Giants fans and beat writers are looking for the team to catch lightning in a bottle two years in a row with their rookies.  Some are even posing the question as to whether or not Belt will be the Giants next Buster Posey, but I’m not getting that worked up just yet.  Belt’s minor league totals, overall, look fantastic:  high walk rate, respectable K%, consistently high OBP/SLG, and rock solid BABIP and wOBA totals.  The small sample size in Triple-A skews the totals a bit, but you can turn to his .372/.427/.616 in the AFL where 14 of his 32 hits went for extra bases to see that he is a pure hitter.

But Belt is sure to start the season back down in Triple-A Fresno this season with Aubrey Huff starting at first base.  However, the chance for a call up in late May/early June could be strong as there are a number of questions that still need to be answered, ranging from a Pablo Sandoval comeback to the performance and production from a left field platoon of Pat Burrell and Mark DeRosa.  Belt is a strong choice for a late round bench spot if you can wait and the potential return value for the dollar spent could be huge.

Desert Storm:  Juan Miranda vs Brandon Allen vs Russell Branyan

I originally had both Miranda and Allen tabbed as late round sleepers, and was pretty excited to steal both of them for a buck late in my drafts.  Miranda was finally out of the shadows that found him lost in the Yankees organization with little hope of regular playing time and Allen was a former White Sox prospect who was just starting to blossom in the D-Backs farm system.  Both have solid power potential and were ready to fight it out this spring with my money going on Miranda to win it.  But Allen would only be held back for a short time as it was only a matter of time before the oft-injured Xavier Nady would need a DL stint.  Grabbing each of them for a buck late in the draft would have been well worth the investment.

But then in walks Branyan with his big stick and even bigger major league resume.  Brutal, in my opinion, just brutal.  Branyan has never been a favorite of mine and save for his one big year in 2009 has done nothing but ruin the fantasy value of others with his ability to sneak his way into a platoon.  If he stays healthy and has a decent spring, he could ruin the values of both Allen and Miranda as it’s highly unlikely that all three will make the club out of spring training.  This situation looks pretty murky for now and, unless Father Time swoops in and puts the whammy on Branyan soon, won’t be decided until mid-March at the earliest.