Archive for Brett Anderson

Wednesday’s slate of starting pitchers is not fully set, as there are still no fewer than five teams listing TBD as their starter as of this writing. I have filled in some of the blanks, projecting that Stephen Gonsalves will be the Twins’ primary pitcher and Sam Gaviglio will start for the Blue Jays. That increases the number of widely-available projected “starters” to eight, using a 25 percent ownership rate on Fantrax as a cutoff point.

While most owners are forsaking these hurlers, a few are reasonable streaming options, particularly in deeper formats.
Read the rest of this entry »

As is usually the case, the selection of streamable starting pitchers is much heavier on risk than reward, but there is actually a widely-available starter who looks like a pretty safe bet to help your rotation. It’s Felix Pena, who is unowned in at least 85 percent of the leagues on ESPN, CBS and Yahoo and more than 75 percent of Fantrax leagues. In a column I wrote just last week, I made the case for viewing Pena as Patrick Corbin Lite.
Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

For most teams, the offseason loss of a superstar pitcher like Zack Greinke would be crippling. The Dodgers are not most teams. After posting a miniscule 1.66 earned run average in 222.2 innings in LA last season, Greinke headed within the division to Arizona, with $200+ million coming his way over the next six years. Despite his departure, the Dodgers are the favorites to take down the NL West again this season, holding a six-game advantage in our projected standings.

Obviously, the Dodgers still have Clayton Kershaw. Most teams are not blessed to have even one true ace, not to mention two of them. Still, instead of standing pat, the club reloaded, adding Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda to bolster the rotation. After four disastrous seasons that led many to consider Kazmir’s career essentially finished, the now-32-year-old resurrected his career in a big way, delivering three consecutive solid campaigns. While he’s not the strikeout machine he was a decade ago, Kazmir provides a steady veteran presence in the rotation, averaging over 30 starts in each of the last three years.

The right-handed Maeda is an unknown quantity heading into his first season in America, which led our own Eno Sarris to search for a comp. If Eno’s analysis is sound — and I’ll go ahead and trust that it is, seeing as Eno probably knows approximately 5,386 times more about the game of baseball than I do — the 27-year-old Maeda looks to be an Aaron Nola type. There’s plenty of value to be found in a steady mid-rotation arm with upside, and that’s what he seems to be. (In an interesting twist, Maeda is the only righty expected to make the Dodgers’ Opening Day rotation.)

Read the rest of this entry »

All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some starting pitchers.

Colby Lewis
In his first year back in the bigs, Lewis performed very well. Lewis pitched more than 200 innings, striking out close to a batter an inning. Even though he doesn’t have overpowering stuff, he was able to make hitters miss on a consistent basis.
Crude 2011 Projection: 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s not going to be a sleeper this year, so he’s going to be a fantastic value.

Brett Anderson
Anderson doesn’t make this list because anyone is questioning his abilities, but because of the injury risk involved. He had problems with his pitching elbow multiple times this year, and pitched fewer than 115 innings because of it. His K/BB and GB% were both higher this year, so Anderson’s still got game.
Crude 2011 Projection: 150 IP, 3.20 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. Not because he’s bad, but because he should slip a couple of rounds in drafts, and you can snag him there.

Zack Greinke
Greinke’s year wasn’t 2009esque, but it was remarkably similar to 2008. He topped 200 innings for the third straight year, but his SwStr% (and thus his K/9) decreased, leaving him with less than the 200 strikeouts many were hoping for. But, he did increase his GB%, so it wasn’t all bad news.
Crude 2011 Projection: 220 IP, 3.85 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.15 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. Like Anderson, you should be able to get him a couple of rounds later in drafts. Plus, he may not get more than 10 W’s, once again, in 2011.

Ricky Nolasco
Once again, Nolasco frustrated the crap out of his owners. For the second straight year, Nolasco’s xFIP was far better then his ERA, thanks to a K/BB of 4.45. He’s homer prone, and hitters somehow have the ability to hit him around a bit. But, he’s going to do a great job giving you some strikeouts without a very high WHIP.
Crude 2011 Projection: 175 IP, 4.30 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I’d like to think he’d go a couple of rounds later, but someone will always be willing to take him a little early with the hope that he’ll finally deliver.

If you have a starting pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 23.

Brett Anderson – In his last six games, Anderson has five Quality Starts and a 3.09 ERA. Yet somehow he is 1-4 in this stretch. Anderson has 28 Ks and 10 BB in 35.1 IP and has allowed just 3 HR. Seemingly past the elbow inflammation that kept him sidelined for nearly two months earlier in the season, make sure Anderson is active this week for his two home starts.

Yovani Gallardo – For his career, Gallardo has a 2.86 ERA before the All-Star break and a 4.73 mark afterwards. This season he has a 7.23 ERA in eight second-half starts. The schedule seems favorable with home starts against the Cardinals and Cubs but Gallardo is just 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA at home this year. Take him out of the lineup if you have any other option.

Edwin Jackson – Since joining the White Sox in early August, Jackson has hurled a Quality Start in each of his five games. He has an 11.05 K/9 with Chicago and has lowered his BB/9 to 1.96. Jackson’s 1.47 ERA may not be sustainable, but his FIP is 2.37 and his xFIP is 2.35 in his brief time with the White Sox. He gets the Tigers and Royals this week, so make sure Jackson is starting.

Wandy Rodriguez – Very little has changed since I recommended Rodriguez back in Week 20. Since then he’s gone 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in four games, with 7 BB and 27 Ks in 28 IP. His turnaround has been remarkable yet he is still active in just 66 percent of CBS Sports leagues. With games against the Cubs and Dodgers this week, there is no reason not to have Rodriguez in your lineup.

Jason Vargas – One of the bright spots this year for the Mariners has been the performance of Vargas, but the veteran lefty has been stumbling lately. In his last three starts he is 0-3 with a 6.52 ERA. Furthermore, Vargas has been a different pitcher away from Safeco Field this year. In road games, Vargas is 2-4 with a 4.95 ERA, nearly 2 ½ runs worse than his home mark. Since Vargas has starts this week in Oakland and Anaheim, give him a spot on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 23 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Jimenez, Lester, Verlander, Oswalt, T. Hudson, Lee, Latos, Kershaw, Liriano, Haren, Lincecum, Hanson, Scherzer, Cueto, Romero, Marcum, A. Sanchez, Burnett, Pelfrey, Hunter, Bumgarner, Kennedy, Niemann, Westbrook, LeBlanc, Chacin, Zimmermann, F. Garcia, Volstad, Figueroa, Arrieta, Karstens, Carrasco, O’Sullivan, Monasterios, Coleman.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 21 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. W, 10 Ks, 3.86 ERA, 1.286 WHIP (2 starts)
Hammel – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 3.86 ERA, 1.629 WHIP (2)
Kuroda – Advised to sit. W, 6 Ks, 5.14 ERA, 1.000 WHIP (2)
Lewis – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP (2)
Richard – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 1.32 ERA, 0.951 WHIP (2)

Today is supposed to be a waiver wire article, but we’ll have plenty of those. For those of you still planning one last draft (and the internal FanGraphs league is one of those), I thought I would present to you my second-ever auction draft. Yes, I’m a noob. But with more mocks and real-life auctions in my review mirror, I’ll be able to step up the auction coverage here at RotoGraphs.

Here are my results, with comments coming after:

Position Player $
C Brian McCann 22
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia 1
1B Adrian Gonzalez 31
2B Brandon Phillips 21
3B Gordon Beckham 17
SS Alcides Escobar 12
CI Paul Konerko 10
MI Chris Getz 1
OF Justin Upton 30
OF Carlos Lee 19
OF Matt LaPorta 4
OF Seth Smith 1
OF Scott Podsednik 1
UT Gaby Sanchez 2
BN Xavier Nady 1
BN Matt Joyce 1
Total Offense: $173

Position Player $
P CC Sabathia 26
P Josh Johnson 22
P Brett Anderson 16
P Roy Oswalt 6
P Ryan Franklin 5
P Ryan Madson 4
P Kerry Wood 3
P Ryan Rowland-Smith 2
P Jonathon Niese 1
BN Ian Kennedy 1

Pitching total: $87

This was a 15-team put on by MDS (MillionDollarSleeper), who I’m sure you’ve seen around the comment boards at this site and others. He brought in an impressive collection of talent including David Goleblahblah, Paul Greco from FantasyPros911, Tim Heany from KFFL, Rudy Gamble and Grey Albright from Razzball, Paul Bourdett from AOL Fantasy Fanhouse, Antonio D’Arcangelis from RotoExperts, Scott Swanay from Fantasy Sherpas, Chris Carbonell from the Starbonell BlogTalkRadio show, Charlie Saponara from FB365, and yours truly.

Given that it was a 15-team league and my second attempt ever, I don’t think I fared so badly. I’d say Adrian Gonzalez for $31 was a little much, but the top-tier first basemen went for closer to $40 and Albert Pujols went for $48, so I think I did okay there. Maybe $10 is too much for Paul Konerko, but Adam LaRoche went minutes later for $15 and I felt (much) better. Things happened a little differently with Alcides Escobar – ten minutes after wondering if I’d spent too much on him, Everth Cabrera went for $4 and I wondered if Escobar’s superior batting average (based on fewer Ks and minor league history) was worth $8. Maybe it will prove to be. Carlos Lee for $19 looks about as bad as he does in a uniform, but the crib sheet I was using from LastPlayerPicked.com had Lee worth $21 next year and I was happy to get the power production with a good batting average for relatively cheap. And as for Scott Podsednik and Gaby Sanchez, who both showed up on my NFBC teams, too: They were cheap. And I think they’ll play almost regularly all year. So that’s something.

On the pitching side, CC Sabathia went for less than Johan Santana ($28), Dan Haren ($31), Felix Hernandez ($33), Zack Greinke ($32) and Tim Lincecum ($41), so I was happy to get my ace for cheaper than most. I also preferred CC, despite his big innings totals, over Ubaldo Jimenez ($26) and Ricky Nolasco ($25) as much as I like the younger pitchers. Lord knows CC has put up big innings totals before.

Once I spent my top-closer money on Brett Anderson, I knew I’d be looking for value in the saves category. Advice from Baseball Prospectus’ Marc Normandin was ringing in my ear (punt saves!), but I decided I’d rather try to field a full team this time. Once he’s healthy, I happen to think that the Indians will want to run Kerry Wood out there at closer to pump up his value for a trade, meaning that between him and Ryan Madson, I think I might have a second closer in there somewhere.

It’s kind of a wonky team and seems devoid of elite, top-shelf talent, but it just might work. What do you guys think?

In terms of pitching attributes, there’s no better blend for starters than high strikeout totals, few walks and ample ground balls. The hurlers who can miss bats, limit free passes and burn worms reign supreme.

Oakland’s Brett Anderson fits the profile. One of the shiny baubles picked up in the December 2007 Dan Haren deal, Anderson ripped through the minor leagues (9.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 56.5 GB%) and made the A’s out of spring training last season. As a 21 year-old with scarce experience above A-ball, Anderson was arguably one of the top 15 starters in baseball.

In 175.1 innings, Anderson struck out 7.7 batters per nine innings, while walking just 2.31 hitters per nine. He remained a strong groundball pitcher in the show, with a 50.9 GB%. The lefty’s 3.61 xFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, placed 14th among starters.

In terms of stuff, Anderson went from good to great during the course of the season. Take a look at his velocity chart for 2009:

In April, Anderson sat 91 MPH with his fastball, with an 82.7 MPH slider. By the summer, he was averaging 93-94 MPH with a mid-80’s slider. Overall, Anderson’s heater wasn’t a great pitch in 2009 (-0.56 runs per 100 pitches), nor was his changeup (-0.47). However, he featured some of the best breaking stuff in the majors.

Anderson’s slider (tossed nearly a third of the time) was worth +2.51 runs per 100 pitches. In terms of overall runs (wSL), Anderson’s +22.2 topped all big league starters. His high-70’s curveball also rated well, though the sample is small considering that he threw the pitch less than seven percent (+0.25 runs/100).

Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X tool has different pitch classifications (his site classifies most of Anderson’s breaking pitches as curveballs). Whatever you want to call his pitches, Anderson showed exceptional control when he spun a breaking ball. He threw both the slider and curve for a strike 65.1 percent of the time (62.7 percent MLB average for the slider and 58 percent average for the curve).

For 2010, CHONE (3.92 FIP) and ZiPS (3.78 FIP) both project FIPs in the high three’s. The FANS are even giddier, envisioning a 3.48 FIP.

As that fan forecast attests, people are privy to Anderson’s talents. But he still might be a relative value entering the season. According to MockDraftCentral, the 22 year-old is, on average, going 35th among starting pitchers. That’s after regression candidate Jair Jurrjens and health question mark Brandon Webb.

The only thing standing in between Anderson and acedom is health. The A’s were pretty cautious with him in ’09, limiting Anderson to 94 pitches per start, but his innings total did increase by about 70 from 2008 to 2009 (it’s closer to 40 if you count his pitching for Team USA and a pair of Triple-A playoff starts in ’08). Given Anderson’s talent and modest ADP, he could be the rare top prospect who’s actually a bargain on draft day.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, we’re doing starters by tiers. Tier one, otherwise known as SP1, was last week. SP2 is below.

Imagine if, on offense, you were just able to pick whomever regardless of position? Or, more correctly, what if there were only two positions on offense in fantasy baseball? Infield and Outfield? That’s what it’s like on the pitching side. So, not surprisingly, the second tier of fantasy starting pitchers looks pretty nice. (It’s also reason #36,978 to draft pitching later!)

All of the hurlers in the first tier could easily end up as fantasy aces next year. Matt Cain and Javier Vazquez were probably even SP1s last year… we just doubt their ability to repeat those seasons. Jake Peavy got a demotion from the first set of pitchers because of his health and move to the stronger league. Yovani Gallardo and Tommy Hanson are young, exciting, and ascendant: pick one of them as your SP1 and follow it up with a possible bounce-back veteran like Cole Hamels, and your likelihood of having two fantasy aces is high.

The next tier just has more question marks. Clayton Kershaw has some awesome pitches, and an equally terrible walk rate to go with them. Jair Jurrjens just had too many stranded runners and too many bouncing balls go his way to trust him to be anywhere as good as he was last year. Wandy Rodriguez has now sustained his excellence two years in a row – but his fastball barely cracks 90 miles per hour, and throwing all those curveballs (almost 40%) has to catch up with you some day, maybe. John Lackey brings multiple question marks (rising walk rate, dropping strikeout rate and innings totals) with him into a new stadium. Chad Billingsley looks like he got a little unlucky last year and may return to grace, but given his walk rate, his WHIP may never be elite.

The final tier includes some semi-controversial pitchers, since we all seem to love Brett Anderson more than his major league numbers perhaps bear out. It could be because of his unique stuff, as Dave Allen showed us a while back in a great post. Then we have numbers that seem to suggest that Ricky Nolasco was very unlucky last year and should be in line for a good season as the luck pendulum swings back for him. We also see two former aces that have ridden injuries to the bottom of the SP2s in Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb. Webb’s injury is a bigger deal because it was in his shoulder, but Oswalt is a slight guy with declining innings totals that has talked of an early retirement.

And then we have the two toughest names to place on this list. James Shields never had plus strikeout rates, and with the walk rate and WHIP rising slowly, you have to wonder if he’ll just always be a high-3s ERA guy that won’t get you much more than 160 Ks. Joining him is fellow low-WHIP meister Scott Baker. Both pitchers actually have okay strikeout rates, good walk rates, poor home run rates, and high-3s FIPs. Their low WHIP makes them attractive, and they are good pitchers. But who do you move off the list to get them on?

The Yankees clinched a playoff berth the other night and the Cardinals’ magic number sits at 1. It’s going to be an exciting October yet again, with some really intriguing match-ups forming in both leagues.

Major pro sports leagues no longer really have offseasons, especially when it comes to coverage. We’ll be here all winter, up to our usual tricks. And if you haven’t already, check out FanGraphs’ beautiful new iPhone app. I’ve been playing around with it all morning and am simply in love. Let’s check out some other sites who are doing great work…

The fellas over at FakeTeams are beginning to look ahead to next season, starting with a breakdown of the Top 10 fantasy pitchers for 2010. The usual suspects top the list: Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia.

Still plugging away in your fantasy league this season and looking for a few spot starters? R.J. White of Fanhouse suggests looking at Bronson Arroyo, who has pieced together 11 straight quality starts, Brett Anderson, who is coming off a 10-strikeout game and Vicente Padilla, who has struggled recently but is facing Washington.

Matt Snyder, also writing for Fanhouse, provides an early preview of the 2010 group of closers. A lot can change in the offseason with free agency and trades, but it’s a nice look into the future.

Rotoworld’s Aaron Gleeman reviews Tim Hudson’s impressive return to action. The veteran right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.56 ERA in five starts since returning from Tommy John surgery and was impressive in damage control Wednesday against the Mets. As Gleeman notes, “His average fastball has clocked in at 90.1 miles per hour after living between 90.3 and 90.9 in the four seasons prior to going under the knife, his breaking-ball velocity is also similar to pre-surgery levels, and perhaps most importantly he’s maintained the extreme ground-ball tendencies that have long keyed his success.”

The Hardball Times’ Derek Carty asks an interesting question, and THT’s Eriq Gardner provides an answer: “What do you think has a greater impact on one’s ability to win a fantasy baseball league: player evaluation or strategy?” It’s something to think about as the 2009 season comes to a close.

Have a question, comment or link to share? E-mail me or find me on Twitter.

Stock Up

Brett Anderson, Athletics

Oakland’s 21 year-old rookie was plenty good during the first half of the 2009 season, but he has ascended into elite territory since the Midsummer Classic:

1st Half: 87.1 IP, 6.6 K/9, 2.78 BB/9
2nd Half: 77.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.21 BB/9

Anderson’s uptick in performance coincided with an increase in velocity:

Anderson’s fastball and slider velocity, by month:

April: 91 MPH for the fastball, 82.7 MPH for the slider
May: 91.4, 82.4
June 92.6, 83.8
July: 93.6, 85
August: 93, 84.2
September: 93.4, 84.2

Anderson’s souped-up fastball hasn’t been dominant (-0.61 runs/100 pitches for the year), but that mid-80’s slider has been deadly (+2.79 runs/100, best in the majors). What makes the pitch so wicked? It may be the unusual depth and bite on the offering. Anderson’s slider drops in the zone 3.4 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. By comparison, the average lefty slider has +1.7 inches of vertical movement (rising 1.7 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin).

Howie Kendrick, Angels

Optioned to AAA Salt Lake in June, Kendrick has returned to the majors with a vengeance. His second-half surge (.385/.409/.594 in 149 PA) owes something to an obscene .430 BABIP, but Howie (or is it Howard?) is hammering the ball with a .209 ISO since the break. Overall, Kendrick has a .344 wOBA and a .153 ISO, both career bests. He’s still a free swinger who rarely draws a free pass (4.9 BB%), but the former top prospect has gradually tightened his zone while making more contact:

2007: 40.1 O-Swing%, 75.6 Contact%
2008: 36.6 O-Swing%, 76.2 Contact%
2009: 32.4 O-Swing%, 80.3 Contact%

(the MLB averages are 25% and 81%, respectively)

Scott Feldman, Rangers

With 5.3 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9, Feldman has been more solid rotation cog (4.59 Expected Fielding Independent ERA) than the breakout ace that his ERA (3.62) or win total (17) would suggest. However, the 26 year-old has undergone one drastic transformation over the past few seasons.

Prior to the 2008 season, Feldman was essentially a ROOGY (Right-Handed One Out Guy), a somewhat pejorative term used to describe righty relievers who get pummeled by southpaw batters. His side-arm motion generated lots of groundballs (58 GB% from 2005-2007), but his opportunities against opposite-handed batters were limited.

He switched release points and jobs in ’08, moving into the rotation. Feldman’s peripherals (4.4 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, 5.25 XFIP) weren’t all that special. In 2009, Feldman has changed his pitching approach. He tossed a fastball 63.5% of the time in ’08, but he has thrown a heater just 44.9% this season.

In place of the conventional fastball, Feldman is relying heavily upon a 90 MPH cutter (thrown 33% of the time). The pitch has been extremely effective, with a value of +2.94 runs per 100 pitches. That figure may be inflated a little by Feldman’s good fortune of balls put in play (the run values are results-based, so a low BABIP or HR/FB rate could influence the pitch values), but that cutter has helped him battle southpaws. Lefties lashed Scott for a .846 OPS in 2008 (17 percent worse than the league average), but just a .623 OPS in 2009 (38 percent better than the league average).

Felipe Lopez, Brewers

Coming off of a pair of tepid seasons at the plate (.295 wOBA in 2007, .320 in 2008), Lopez had to settle for a 1-year, $3.5M deal with the Diamondbacks over the winter. Without question, Felipe was one of the best bargains on the free agent market, accumulating 4.6 WAR between the D-Backs and the Brewers. That production is worth roughly $20-$21M.

Lopez has been fortunate, with a .364 BABIP this year. According to this expected BABIP calculator, the switch-hitter should have a BABIP around .333. That would make his .312/.382/.433 line something closer to .281/.351/.402. That still equates to a wOBA of about .345, besting his work during a nomadic stretch that saw Lopez roam through Cincinnati, Washington and St. Louis. Lopez’s walk rate this season is up to 10.1% (8.1 and 8.2% in ’07 and ’08).

Robinson Tejeda, Royals

When your club can’t see first place with the aid of the Keck Telescopes, September baseball can be a drag. But there is one perk associated with being woefully out of contention: the chance to evaluate players in expanded roles.

Case in point: Robinson Tejeda. For most of his pro career, Tejeda has thrown really, really hard (94.3 MPH in 2009) toward the general vicinity of home plate. However, the former Ranger and Phillie has shown about as much control as Dayton Moore near an expensive, low-OBP position player (5.11 BB/9 career).

So far, Tejeda has taken to the rotation better than expected. In four starts spanning 22.1 innings, Robinson has posted a 24/10 K/BB ratio, with a microscopic 0.81 ERA. The 27 year-old has, of course, been exceptionally lucky on balls in play (.170 BABIP as a starter).

But, Tejeda has retained his velocity battling lineups multiple times (94.5 MPH), while garnering plenty of outside swings (33.3%, 25% MLB average) and posting a low contact rate (73.7%, 81% MLB average). It’s just four starts, so no conclusions can really be drawn. Still, Tejeda at least gives Royals fans something to focus on while waiting for Billy Butler‘s next AB or Zack Greinke’s next start.

Stock Down

Freddy Sanchez, Giants

The Pirates received plenty of backlash from fans and the local press for trading Sanchez, a respected community member and a decent second baseman when healthy, to the Giants this past summer. That venom aimed at the organization didn’t take into account that the 31 year-old might just be breaking down physically.

Courtesy of Sportsnet, here’s Sanchez’s sizeable list of ailments since the beginning of the 2007 season:

Sep 7, 2009: Missed 19 games (left shoulder injury).
Aug 25, 2009: Left shoulder injury, 15-day DL.
Aug 18, 2009: Left shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Aug 2, 2009: Missed 5 games (sore left knee).
Jul 27, 2009: Sore left knee, day-to-day.
Jul 10, 2009: Missed 6 games (back injury).
Jul 3, 2009: Back injury, day-to-day.
Sep 13, 2008: Missed 1 game (eye injury).
Sep 12, 2008: Eye injury, day-to-day.
Aug 3, 2008: Missed 5 games (back spasms).
Jul 28, 2008: Back spasms, day-to-day.
Apr 14, 2008: Missed 1 game (right shoulder injury).
Apr 13, 2008: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Apr 5, 2008: Missed 1 game (right shoulder injury).
Apr 4, 2008: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Oct 1, 2007: Missed the last 5 games of the regular season (shoulder injury).
Sep 26, 2007: Shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Jun 19, 2007: Missed 3 games (flu).
Jun 15, 2007: Flu, day-to-day.
Apr 26, 2007: Missed 1 game (eye injury).
Apr 25, 2007: Eye injury, day-to-day.
Apr 18, 2007: Missed 1 game (left wrist injury).
Apr 17, 2007: Left wrist injury, day-to-day.
Apr 7, 2007: Missed 5 games (sprained knee).
Mar 31, 2007: Sprained knee, 15-day DL.

Shoulder and knee maladies have proven especially troublesome. Sanchez is largely the same aggressive, high-contact hitter with just a smidge of extra-base power. However, he has posted the highest K rate of his career (16.6 K%), and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (89.7 percent) is below the 92-96% range he hovered around from 2005-2008 (88% MLB average).

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees

Chamberlain’s first year as a full-time starter has not gone as smoothly as Yankee fans or fantasy owners would have liked, as the former Cornhusker has posted a mediocre 4.70 XFIP in 146.2 IP. The big righty, who turns 23 tomorrow, has missed a decent number of bats (7.61 K/9). However, his control has lagged behind.

Joba has posted a paltry 54.9 First-Pitch Strike%, compared to the 58% major league average. His hard mid-80’s slider (+0.98 runs/100) and high-70’s curve (+0.3 runs/100) have fooled hitters, but Chamberlain’s 92.5 MPH gas has often been torched (-1.15 runs/100).

The 6-2, 230 pounder’s struggles will likely spur more unwarranted discussion of his long-term role, but it’s important to keep in mind that Chamberlain is still very young and is surely capable of better in the rotation in the years to come. It’s extremely difficult to conjure up an argument for pushing him to the ‘pen.

Nick Markakis, Orioles

The 25 year-old Markakis remains a valuable commodity, but it’s hard not to be let down by his 2009 campaign. Over his first three seasons in the majors, Markakis made steady offensive improvement:

2006: 8.1 BB%, .346 wOBA
2007: 8.7 BB%, .366 wOBA
2008: 14.3 BB%, .389 wOBA

The lefty batter was an on-base fiend last year, swinging at just 18 percent of pitches thrown out of the strike zone. This year, Markakis has chased 23.4% of pitches off the dish. His walk rate has nearly been cut in half (7.5 BB%), with his wOBA falling back down to his rookie level (.345 wOBA). After posting ISO’s of .185 in each of 2007 and 2008, Markakis has compiled a .156 mark this year (again, right around his rookie production of .157).

Fausto Carmona, Indians

In late May, we took a gander at the apocalyptic path Carmona’s career has taken since his banner 2007 season. He pitched 215 frames, posted a sub-four FIP and generated a huge number of worm-burners (64.3 GB%) with his low-to-mid-90’s sinker.

Since that massive increase in workload (he pitched 74.2 major league innings in 2006), Carmona has been a train wreck. He walked 5.22 batters per nine innings in 2008, and has actually shown slightly worse control in 2009 (5.37 BB/9). While still a groundball pitcher, Carmona isn’t posting the same kind of extreme rates (54.2 GB% in 2009). His sinker has gone from a plus pitch to possibly the worst in the big leagues:

Carmona’s runs/100 pitches value with his sinker:

2007: +0.57
2008: -0.15
2009: -2.26

Suffice it to say, that’s a problem when Fausto still tosses a sinker nearly three-quarters of the time (73% in 2009). Carmona’s percentage of pitches in the strike zone has fallen from 51.4% in 2007 to a lousy 44.9% in 2009 (49-50% MLB average). It’s sad to say, but the 25 year-old has turned into the A.L.’s answer to Daniel Cabrera.

Milton Bradley, Cubs

Though some Chicago columnists may claim otherwise, Bradley probably isn’t responsible for global warming, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and stalled health care legislation. That being said, the 31 year-old switch-hitter’s first year in the Friendly Confines has been anything but amicable. The Cubs suspended Bradley for the rest of the 2009 season, though the MLBPA is considering filing a grievance.

If Milton has indeed played his final game this season, he ends up with a disappointing .345 wOBA that pales in comparison to his .405 mark in 2007 and .423 figure in 2008. Bradley was still extremely patient (14.4 BB%), but his pop was nowhere to be found. His ISO, .239 in ’07 and .242 in ’08, plunged to .140 with the Cubs.

Bradley didn’t hit the DL, but he missed time with groin, calf and knee problems. He continued to crush fastballs (+1.21 runs/100) and sliders (+0.85), but he was downright Pedro Cerrano-like against curveballs (-2.84 runs/100) and changeups (-0.85). He’s owed $9M in 2010 and $12M in 2011.