Keeper Conundrums: Starting Pitchers, Part One
All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some starting pitchers.
Colby Lewis
In his first year back in the bigs, Lewis performed very well. Lewis pitched more than 200 innings, striking out close to a batter an inning. Even though he doesn’t have overpowering stuff, he was able to make hitters miss on a consistent basis.
Crude 2011 Projection: 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s not going to be a sleeper this year, so he’s going to be a fantastic value.
Brett Anderson
Anderson doesn’t make this list because anyone is questioning his abilities, but because of the injury risk involved. He had problems with his pitching elbow multiple times this year, and pitched fewer than 115 innings because of it. His K/BB and GB% were both higher this year, so Anderson’s still got game.
Crude 2011 Projection: 150 IP, 3.20 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. Not because he’s bad, but because he should slip a couple of rounds in drafts, and you can snag him there.
Zack Greinke
Greinke’s year wasn’t 2009esque, but it was remarkably similar to 2008. He topped 200 innings for the third straight year, but his SwStr% (and thus his K/9) decreased, leaving him with less than the 200 strikeouts many were hoping for. But, he did increase his GB%, so it wasn’t all bad news.
Crude 2011 Projection: 220 IP, 3.85 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.15 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. Like Anderson, you should be able to get him a couple of rounds later in drafts. Plus, he may not get more than 10 W’s, once again, in 2011.
Ricky Nolasco
Once again, Nolasco frustrated the crap out of his owners. For the second straight year, Nolasco’s xFIP was far better then his ERA, thanks to a K/BB of 4.45. He’s homer prone, and hitters somehow have the ability to hit him around a bit. But, he’s going to do a great job giving you some strikeouts without a very high WHIP.
Crude 2011 Projection: 175 IP, 4.30 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I’d like to think he’d go a couple of rounds later, but someone will always be willing to take him a little early with the hope that he’ll finally deliver.
If you have a starting pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
What about Johnny Cueto and Yovanni Gallardo?
Initially I think yes, but could they be had for cheaper a couple rounds later than expected?
I have Anderson as a near-last-round keeper, and I’m pretty sure he’s a no-brainer keeper down there… yes?
Yep.
Jordan Zimmermann. I have him for close to league minimum. Also hoping that Adams/Greggerson is announced the closer in the offseason and maybe Juan Guttierez.
I have Zimmerman for $10 in a 20 team keepr league. But I almost always assume that I can find a really good staff with just about every starter under $10. Will he be allowed to pitch 150 innings next year? I have my doubts about that. I’m looking to trade him.
How about Kuroda, I doubt anyone paid much for his services this year and he was unremarkably outstanding.
Keep Johan Santana in the 3rd of 15 team league? Not sure what to expect with his injury.
Considering you shouldn’t have taken him in the third round in the first place, I’m going to say no.
I didn’t. I traded for him later in the season. But thanks.
Luckily for me I own three of these pitchers!
I am considering keeping Greinke, but only because I can keep him as a 5th rounder (2nd year keeper).
Francisco Liriano? Would roughly equate to a 5th rounder in a 12-team.
I’m thinking no, but my keeper options are short due to Reynolds, Rollins, Greinke, Santana, Lind flops so he may be my best option as a last keeper.
Edit: Ok if I have to choose one of Liriano, Greinke, Santana to keep in the 5th which should I choose? Sorry to spam.
Liriano.
Ervin Santana, Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster?
In a 5×5 league I think I go Garza,Dumpster,Santana. In a points league I think I’d go Dumpster,Garza,Santana. I don’t hate Santana, I just consider him a bit higher risk and would also put his most likely numbers a touch below these other two.
Ervin Santana is going on my list.
16 team league keeper options:
Matusz in 11 – Can’t argue with his second half but somewhat overvalued. If I drop a redraft is out of the question
Braden in 12 – Our rules say keeping him here allows me to keep Bumgarner and Ike Davis 2 rounds ater than I would be able to otherwise. I consider it worth it. Plus, he had a nice year and has shown marked year-by-year improvement.
Bumgarner in 16 – No brainer I think.
Volquez in 20 – Playoff meltdown notwithstanding, he had a fairly miraculous September. My expectations are in the range of 4.00-ish ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 180 IP, 190 K. I’ll take that in round 20.
Hi,
I need some help shaving my roster down from 12 to 10. Any suggestions would be appreciated.
1B – K. Morales
2B – Zobrist
3B – Wright
SS – Jeter
OF – Cargo
OF – Stubbs
SP – Nolasco
SP – De La Rosa
SP – Hellickson
SP – E Santana
SP – Hamels
SP – Chacin
Oh… it’s a H2H league with 14 teams (9 positions, 1 utitlity and 9 pitcher slots).
Ervin Santana is the kind of player who can be found on the waiver wire in a 14 team mixed league (or at least replaced by someone on the wire).
What did you just say? Grienke and I will make you regret ever writing this article. If Fangraphs made a keeper list of fantasy writers, you would be on the cut list.
Burn.
I have 3 players to choose to keep.
Bautista(of course), Colby Lewis, Corey Hart, Martin Prado,Matt Cain,Rafeal Soriano(We have HLD category).
My idea goes to Bautista, Cain, Prado.
Is it Okay? What if I keep Lewis instead of Prado?
If you’re keeping Cain, it makes much more sense to keep Prado, a very solid 2B, than Lewis, a #2 SP who you could easily replace with any number of guys.
Thanks for ur advise:)