Dodgers Playing Time Battles: Pitchers

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

For most teams, the offseason loss of a superstar pitcher like Zack Greinke would be crippling. The Dodgers are not most teams. After posting a miniscule 1.66 earned run average in 222.2 innings in LA last season, Greinke headed within the division to Arizona, with $200+ million coming his way over the next six years. Despite his departure, the Dodgers are the favorites to take down the NL West again this season, holding a six-game advantage in our projected standings.

Obviously, the Dodgers still have Clayton Kershaw. Most teams are not blessed to have even one true ace, not to mention two of them. Still, instead of standing pat, the club reloaded, adding Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda to bolster the rotation. After four disastrous seasons that led many to consider Kazmir’s career essentially finished, the now-32-year-old resurrected his career in a big way, delivering three consecutive solid campaigns. While he’s not the strikeout machine he was a decade ago, Kazmir provides a steady veteran presence in the rotation, averaging over 30 starts in each of the last three years.

The right-handed Maeda is an unknown quantity heading into his first season in America, which led our own Eno Sarris to search for a comp. If Eno’s analysis is sound — and I’ll go ahead and trust that it is, seeing as Eno probably knows approximately 5,386 times more about the game of baseball than I do — the 27-year-old Maeda looks to be an Aaron Nola type. There’s plenty of value to be found in a steady mid-rotation arm with upside, and that’s what he seems to be. (In an interesting twist, Maeda is the only righty expected to make the Dodgers’ Opening Day rotation.)

Along with the returning Brett Anderson and Alex Wood, the rotation appears relatively set, but that doesn’t mean we’ve run out of interesting players to discuss. The 28-year-old Anderson hurled 180 innings last year, but pitched just 123 IP in the majors in his three previous seasons combined. I’m no doctor, but I think the odds of him making it through 31 starts unscathed again this year are quite slim.

As for Wood, his decreased velocity has led to a plummeting strikeout rate (8.91 K/9 in 2014, 6.60 K/9 in 2015), and while he still maintained a 3.84 ERA in his 32 starts last year, it’s not crazy to think of the 25-year-old as a possible bust candidate. Between Maeda, Anderson and Wood, there are a wide variety of questions regarding how the Dodgers rotation will eventually shake out, behind the duo of Kershaw and Kazmir.

Hyun-Jin Ryu hasn’t pitched since 2014, as he recovers from shoulder surgery. He’s expected to be ready sometime before June, and will likely make an immediate push to join the rotation, having pitched to a 3.17 ERA in his 56 major-league starts. Pitchers returning from shoulder injuries are always difficult to project, but the beauty of the Dodgers’ situation is that they don’t need Ryu to return to form this year. Very few teams have the depth to shrug off a lost season from a 3.5-4.0 WAR starter, but that’s exactly what LA did last year, and they’re again built to withstand the possibility that Ryu fails to recapture the magic of his 2013 and 2014 seasons.

Speaking of pitchers looking to return from serious injuries, Brandon McCarthy is here too, having missed most of 2015 after Tommy John surgery. He’s expected back sometime before midseason, giving the Dodgers yet another quality option to plug into the rotation, should any of the present starters struggle or get hurt.

While we’re on the topic of currently injured guys who could make an impact later in the year, let’s discuss Francelis Montas. The flame-throwing righty came over from the White Sox in a December trade, but required surgery to remove a rib in early February. Recovery timetables for “guys who are now missing a rib” aren’t exactly concrete, but like McCarthy, he’s generally thought to be available before the season’s midpoint.

Montas possesses crazy-good stuff, but like many other youngsters with crazy-good stuff, command is an inconsistent guest in the Montas household. Given the organization’s pitching depth, the 23-year-old will get all the time he needs in Triple-A. If he smooths out his control issues, he’s certainly a guy worth keeping an eye on in the back half of the 2016 season.

But wait…there’s more! Seriously, it’s hard to overstate how incredibly deep this organization is with quality arms. I’ve already discussed eight pitchers, and we’re not close to being done. In fact, the Dodgers head into Spring Training with 13 pitchers who started major-league games last year. I’m going to ignore Joe Blanton, who was a bit of a revelation in the bullpen with Pittsburgh last year, and therefore seems an unlikely candidate to make the jump back to the rotation in LA.

Mike Bolsinger was a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers in 2015, with a 3.62 ERA in 21 starts. Despite his success, the 28-year-old is on the outside looking in when it comes to the 2016 rotation. If everyone’s healthy at the same time — an admittedly huge if — he’s probably somewhere around their No. 8 starter. If the soft-tossing righty gets another shot in the majors this year, he’ll certainly be worth a long look in NL-only leagues, because his secondary stuff generates plenty of whiffs despite his underwhelming velocity.

Then there’s Carlos Frias, a groundball pitcher who made 13 starts in a Dodgers uniform last year. The 26-year-old struck out fewer then five batters per nine, while walking more than three, yet somehow managed an ERA right around 4.00. Even if he makes his way back to the major-league rotation in 2016, he’s not a friendly fantasy option.

Amidst this litany of back-end options, we start getting into the prospects, and guess what? The Dodgers have a bunch of them too. We’ll start with Zach Lee, simply because he pitched in the majors last year (for all of 4.2 innings). While it seems like he’s been kicking around in the minors for ages, he’s still just 24 years old. However, he’s lost a considerable amount of velocity over the last couple years, and at this point he doesn’t look like much more than a fringy starter at the game’s top level.

Now that we’ve gotten Lee out of the way, it’s time to talk about the more exciting youngsters, a conversation which obviously begins with Julio Urias. The 19-year-old phenom is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and it’s easy to see why. First off, check out his numbers from Double-A last year:

• 13 starts (68.1 IP) – 2.77 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 9.75 K/9, 1.98 BB/9

Those are great numbers for anyone, but they’re especially great for an 18-year-old pitching against a bunch of guys in their early-to-mid twenties. If you’re reading this website, chances are you already know that minor-league stats are often misleading, but Urias is absolutely the real deal. Velocity? Check. Quality secondary offerings? Yep, two of them. Smooth delivery, advanced feel for pitching, strong command? Check, check, check.

Considering their depth, the Dodgers have the luxury of keeping Urias in the minors until they’re ready to start his arbitration clock. While he still won’t celebrate his 20th birthday until August, Urias possesses more upside than any starter in this organization not named Clayton Kershaw. Where he stands in the pecking order for early 2016 is unclear at present, but I fully expect Urias to be a widely owned fantasy commodity at some point this year. In redraft leagues with an NA slot, he’s should be at or near the top of your priority list for that spot.

Puerto Rican righty Jose De Leon’s prospect stock continues to rise, with an eye-popping 12.3 K/9 in his 48 minor-league starts. The 23-year-old throws a plus slider and a solid change to go with his mid-90’s heater, and was met with little resistance from hitters in the low minors. Although his walk and home-run rates jumped when he moved to Double-A, he maintained the exact 12.3 K/9 rate compiled over his first 2 1/2 professional seasons. Also, he improved as the season went on, looking dominant in his final eight starts (2.87 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 14.65 K/9, 2.30 BB/9). Both Urias and De Leon will be pushing hard for rotation spots as 2016 gets underway, and although Urias has a more high-profile pedigree, De Leon’s upside is becoming incredibly difficult to overlook.

Two other notable names are Jharel Cotton and Chris Anderson. The 24-year-old Cotton is a strikeout machine with a nasty changeup, but his velocity is a bit of a question mark, and he probably profiles best as a reliever. Anderon’s prospect stock took a big hit last year, as the command issues that plagued him in A-ball carried over to Double-A, but his strikeout rate did not. The former 18th-overall pick needs to prove he can consistently throw strikes, which he has yet to do at any level in his three professional seasons.

The Dodgers also added Yaisel Sierra, a Cuban righthander. The 24-year-old has electric stuff, but remains far from a finished product. Sierra moved to the bullpen last year in Cuba, but hitters feasted on him to the tune of a 6.10 ERA. Opponents also drew 31 walks in his 70 innings. Sierra is currently dealing with visa issues, and his role doesn’t get much clearer when he does arrive.

No team — especially a contender — is going to throw him into the major-league fire after such a miserable season against hitters in the Cuban league, so he’ll probably begin the season in Double-A or Triple-A. While I suppose the Dodgers might want to see if they have a possible starter on their hands, Sierra’s likely eventual destination is the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combo can play up, and he doesn’t have to worry too much about developing a third useful pitch. If Sierra can harness his pure stuff in the minors, his best path to major-league playing time in 2016 is likely in the bullpen, possibly as a swingman.

Brandon Beachy is back, but has thrown just eight innings in a Dodgers uniform due to near-constant injuries. The club has already announced that he will start the season in Triple-A. It’s been a very rough three years for the 29-year-old, and even if he returns to form somewhat in Triple-A, the Dodgers would need to find room to add him to their 40-man.

In summary, the Dodgers have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to starting pitching, which makes it hard to develop season-long projections for anyone outside Kershaw and Kazmir. Maeda’s never pitched in America. Anderson’s spent more time on the DL than on active rosters in the last five years. Wood’s got some bust potential. McCarthy and Ryu are currently injured, and how they’ll recover is anyone’s guess. Urias and/or De Leon could make a significant impact this year, but the timelines for both are unknown.

The sheer quantity of potentially fantasy-relevant pitchers in this organization makes the Dodgers one of the most important teams to follow during Spring Training. This murky picture can only get clearer, and once it does, the Dodgers’ rotation could be a deep well of value for fantasy owners.