Check the Position: SP2
Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)
Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, we’re doing starters by tiers. Tier one, otherwise known as SP1, was last week. SP2 is below.
Imagine if, on offense, you were just able to pick whomever regardless of position? Or, more correctly, what if there were only two positions on offense in fantasy baseball? Infield and Outfield? That’s what it’s like on the pitching side. So, not surprisingly, the second tier of fantasy starting pitchers looks pretty nice. (It’s also reason #36,978 to draft pitching later!)
All of the hurlers in the first tier could easily end up as fantasy aces next year. Matt Cain and Javier Vazquez were probably even SP1s last year… we just doubt their ability to repeat those seasons. Jake Peavy got a demotion from the first set of pitchers because of his health and move to the stronger league. Yovani Gallardo and Tommy Hanson are young, exciting, and ascendant: pick one of them as your SP1 and follow it up with a possible bounce-back veteran like Cole Hamels, and your likelihood of having two fantasy aces is high.
The next tier just has more question marks. Clayton Kershaw has some awesome pitches, and an equally terrible walk rate to go with them. Jair Jurrjens just had too many stranded runners and too many bouncing balls go his way to trust him to be anywhere as good as he was last year. Wandy Rodriguez has now sustained his excellence two years in a row – but his fastball barely cracks 90 miles per hour, and throwing all those curveballs (almost 40%) has to catch up with you some day, maybe. John Lackey brings multiple question marks (rising walk rate, dropping strikeout rate and innings totals) with him into a new stadium. Chad Billingsley looks like he got a little unlucky last year and may return to grace, but given his walk rate, his WHIP may never be elite.
The final tier includes some semi-controversial pitchers, since we all seem to love Brett Anderson more than his major league numbers perhaps bear out. It could be because of his unique stuff, as Dave Allen showed us a while back in a great post. Then we have numbers that seem to suggest that Ricky Nolasco was very unlucky last year and should be in line for a good season as the luck pendulum swings back for him. We also see two former aces that have ridden injuries to the bottom of the SP2s in Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb. Webb’s injury is a bigger deal because it was in his shoulder, but Oswalt is a slight guy with declining innings totals that has talked of an early retirement.
And then we have the two toughest names to place on this list. James Shields never had plus strikeout rates, and with the walk rate and WHIP rising slowly, you have to wonder if he’ll just always be a high-3s ERA guy that won’t get you much more than 160 Ks. Joining him is fellow low-WHIP meister Scott Baker. Both pitchers actually have okay strikeout rates, good walk rates, poor home run rates, and high-3s FIPs. Their low WHIP makes them attractive, and they are good pitchers. But who do you move off the list to get them on?
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
I would argue the best value pitchers for fantasy are available from this tier.
In an auction, you can probably get
-Anderson ($15)
-Hamels ($13)
-Nolasco ($12)
-Billingsley ($12)
-Hanson ($15)
in addition to Kevin Slowey for under $80 in budget and absolutely dominate.
I know all leagues are different, but I still expect Hamels to push $20 in my NL-only league, Billingsley somewhere around $17-18. If I can get that pair for $25, I’ll be happy as a lark on draft day.
Yeah, I love love the first two tiers in SP2. I’ll probably aim to get two-to-three of these guys from the eighth to the twelfth round.
absolutely. Last year I only bought “SP2/3s” and i ended up with Gallardo, Bedard (who netted me Matt Kemp), Vazquez, Beckett, Wolf, Greinke and Haren (who was the only guy i paid $15+ for).
Simply put, Eno is 100% correct. Tim Lincecum is nice and all, as is CC, but you can get equally good value much later.
Why the downward trend projection for Nolasco? He was among the best SP in the game outside of ERA last season, THT did a nice “clone war” of him vs Verlander, not much to choose between them. I think he is legit.
Couldn’t agree more on Nolasco. If this site’s stats really do mean much, consider: .336 babip, 61.0 lob%, 3.35 FIP, 3.28xFIP, etc., etc. If this doesn’t rate him higher, what stock should we put in these metrics?
It’s not a downward projection, those arrows are meant more as a review of last year. You have to say his stock went down, even if the metrics say he was very unlucky. He still did what he did. Anyway, I love him and he could go into the Kershaw tier if only he hadn’t had two unlucky seasons out of his three in the bigs.
Eno –
My apologies. I clearly misunderstood the meaning with the arrows, etc. Good stuff.
I’m not so sure of it, myself. Verlander has a HR/FB rate of about 8% vs 11% for Nolasco. Similarly, Verlander has a career GB rate that is about 42% vs 38% for Nolasco.
So… Nolasco is going to give up more fly balls AND they’re more likely to leave the park? I’d say that’s something serious to choose between them. Plus Verlander seems likely to strike out an extra +0.5-1 K/9. That would seem pretty significant too. I’m hardly a Verlander fanboy, I feel he’s a bit inconsistent for an ace, but Nolasco shows notably worse performance on a couple of key skills (strikeouts and keeping the ball in the park).
where would Jered Weaver fall?
The only person on this list I might take Weaver over is probably Wolf, so I’d say SP3.
uh, lilly? Ted Lilly? He’s been healthier than wolf, better than wolf
I don’t know if you heard but Lilly is starting the season on the DL…
Too funny, sorry Dave
Even if he was healthier, Lilly belongs in the Baker/Shields conversation, otherwise titled “Decent fringe SP2s that don’t give you the strikeouts and have high ERAs despite their nice WHIPs.”
Where’s Garza? He’s better then Shields…
Not a bad point, but I still don’t think he’s an SP2. I don’t see someone he can bump off this list unless you really can’t take the risk with Webb. Sure, he can bump Wolf or Lilly from the ‘just off’ list but I torture over the ‘just off’ list less than the rest. Compare my SP1 just off list to my SP2 first tier, for instance.
Anyway, I think Shields should have a lower WHIP than Garza next year, unless everyone’s just waiting on his changeup now and he’ll never be what he once was.
Not related to this article, particularly, but I appreciate when some of the FanGraphs / RotoGraphs bloggers read through the comments and answer questions and criticisms. You and Matt K. do so very consistently, and it contributes to a heathy dialogue. It makes the articles a launching point for a discussion, rather than an ending point.
Sorry, but I have a rookie question: I have been unable to view or download the jpg image for this post (or the SP1 post) from either my PC or my Mac. Am I missing something? Can anyone explain what I should do? When I download it, I get a blank file; when I click the image to view, it just keeps waiting and never generates. Thanks for any help.
Yeah this is where I’ll be doing my pitcher shopping.
regarding the just off list: imo gavyn floyd is just a little better than john danks but its pretty close… What do you think? How deep are you going with these SP rankings? Keep up the good work…
What is with the Tommy Hanson madness. It’s just madness.
Tommy Hanson is a stud.
I was thinking about adding another pitcher in my NL only keeper dynasty league but I feel really good now. Nolasco $2.50, Gallardo $11.50, and Hanson $6. Should make for a solid staff. Should I stay put? Or should I go after somone like Halladay at the draft just to lock it down?
It obviously depends heavily on your leagues’ scoring/settings, but I think just about everybody needs 6 SP, and your first 3 are good enough that if you spend a middling amount of dollars on some vets, you’ll have at least a solid staff this year.
You already have 2 potentially great upside plays there with Nolaskco and Hanson, and Gallardo is at least going to give you at ton of Ks, and he could be a #2 fantasy SP pretty quickly.
If it was me, I would just roll the dice with the staff you have so far (no, that doesn’t mean draft Dice-K). I mean I think your upside plays could really make getting an uberace a bit redundant. All pitching is risky.
On the other hand . . .
There is risk and their is RISK. The beauty of Doc Halladay is that he’s been so consistent — if you count in length of track record, etc., there is an argument to be made that Halladay is right on par with Lincecum — elite #s, lots of IP, very limited risk of missing starts or going through long slumps. So Halladay is a special case, because he is as close to a lock as you can get with a SP
If you get Halladay, you can fill in your last 2 SP VERY cheaply with a good ratio guy (like maybe Kuroda?) and another late flyer (another good ratio-controlling vet?)
I still think your pitching is good enough, given the inherent risk in the position, but Halladay is a special case.
Where would Ben Sheets now fit into the conversation Eno? Any thoughts given his “healthy” diagnosis for the likely amount of work he’ll receive this year?
Brett Anderson=next Verducci rule victim?
I know we’re all enamored by the peripherals, but that was quite the increase for a 22 year old…
I don’t trust Clayton Kershaw
http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2010/02/luckiest-fly-ball-pitcher.html
http://www.fangraphs.com/forums/topic.php?id=3470
Assume for sake of argument you already have 2 SP who are good bets for #1 or have #1 upside — say, Adam Wainwright and Tommy Hanson.
Is that enough for now? Or would still take an early round pick on, say, Cole Hamels or Ubaldo Jimenez, and wait until a later round to take someone like, say, Brett Anderson, Baker, or maybe even Price as your #3 SP?
Also, I like Hamels more for 2010, but I wonder if Jimenez will be actually be better for the next 4 years.
sorry about the typo:
“. . . I wonder if Jimenz will be better over the next 4 years.”
[fixed!]
Kershaw is looking like #1 on this list right now