Daily Starters – Wednesday, September 12

As is usually the case, the selection of streamable starting pitchers is much heavier on risk than reward, but there is actually a widely-available starter who looks like a pretty safe bet to help your rotation. It’s Felix Pena, who is unowned in at least 85 percent of the leagues on ESPN, CBS and Yahoo and more than 75 percent of Fantrax leagues. In a column I wrote just last week, I made the case for viewing Pena as Patrick Corbin Lite.

Since then, Pena made a productive start at the White Sox, allowing two runs in seven innings with six strikeouts. It was a bit out of character in that he threw 50 of his 94 pitches (53.2 percent) in the strike zone (not an inherently bad thing) and got only six swinging strikes against the team with the majors’ highest whiff rate. While he maintained his recent trend of averaging at least 82 mph on his slider, he threw fewer of them (23, to be exact). In fact, it was the first time his slider percentage fell below 25 percent in a start this season.

Even if Pena’s control is not as sharp against the Rangers on Wednesday night, he should be primed to post another good start. Over the course of the season, Pena has done a good job of avoiding the most damaging types of contact, particularly on pitches that are not in the strike zone. It also helps that Pena will face the Rangers at Angels Stadium. Not only is it a pitcher-friendly venue, but the Rangers have the majors’ seventh-lowest wOBA (.295) on the road.

If you can’t stream Pena, here are some other options. I have included all projected starters with Fantrax ownership rates of 25 percent or lower.

Trevor Richards – MIA at NYM, Game 2 (24%)

After composing a string of nine starts that produced a 2.81 ERA and a 26.6 percent strikeout rate, Richards’ last four starts have not gone nearly as well. While he is still getting Ks (20 in 16.2 innings), a lack of control (two starts with a Zone% below 30 percent) and a 26 percent ground ball rate have conspired to leave Richards with an 8.64 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over this recent stretch.

The Mets have been one of the majors’ most productive offenses in recent weeks, as no team has scored more runs over the last 30 days. Unless you can afford to pursue strikeouts at the risk of virtually every other category, it’s best to take a pass on Richards.

Jason Vargas – NYM vs. MIA, Game 2 (23%)

Vargas entered September on an upswing, compiling a 1.99 ERA over a four-start run, but last Tuesday, he regressed with a 3.1-inning start against the Dodgers in which he allowed five runs (four earned). The lefty got plenty of chases during his brief streak, but no team has a lower O-Swing% than the Dodgers.

Not only will Vargas get the benefit of facing the punchless Marlins, but he’ll be facing a team that is not particularly selective. His proclivity for allowing the long ball (1.96 HR/9) and shaky control (39.7 percent Zone%) make him risky in nearly any matchup, but Vargas’ weaknesses could be masked against this weak opponent.

Andrew Cashner – BAL vs. OAK (22%)

It should be easy to quickly pass on Cashner and his 4.89 ERA, going up against a potent Athletics offense. When you realize he has turned in seven-inning quality starts against the Rays, Mets and Yankees over the past five weeks, you might have second thoughts. Then again, Cashner got a total of nine strikeouts over those 21 innings, and he has a 7.6 percent strikeout rate in the second half. While he has managed to consistently stymie hitters on balls in play in the past, he is allowing far too much contact right now.

Brett Anderson – OAK at BAL (20%)

The A’s have yet to announce a starter for Wednesday, but it could mark Anderson’s return from a DL stint for ulnar nerve irritation. Despite a lack of strikeouts, Anderson has been enjoying a productive second half, building a 2.83 ERA on the foundation of a 56.8 percent ground ball rate, 2.6 percent walk rate and .234 BABIP.

Not only is Anderson something of a wild card, coming fresh off the DL, but I worry about him pitching at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Though he does not allow many flyballs and line drives, he can get hit hard when he does induce them. His 93.9 mph average exit velocity on flies and liners ranks is in the 90th percentile among pitchers who have allowed at least 200 batted balls (per Baseball Savant). Anderson has not had to pitch in many hitters’ parks this season, and it’s best not to take the chance that the Orioles will take advantage of their home park, or at the very least, contribute to his imminent BABIP regression.

Daniel Norris – DET vs. HOU (17%)

Since coming off the DL, Norris has made two starts, notching 14 strikeouts in 9.1 innings. He has also induced a grand total of three ground balls out of 19 batted balls, which is not the most encouraging trend heading into a showdown against the Astros and their .175 Iso. Norris also left the first of those two starts early with calf cramps, which doesn’t do much to ease concerns about his ability to stay healthy.

Daniel Poncedeleon – STL vs. PIT (17%)

The Pirates’ offense has perked up, compiling a .361 wOBA in the last week, and Poncedeleon might play into one of their strengths. Over the last 30 days, no NL team has topped their Z-Contact% of 87.0 percent. Though Poncedeleon is not an extreme strike-thrower (45.8 percent Zone%), he has been inducing swings on pitches in the zone at a stratospheric 78.5 percent rate. He could be a welcome sight for a lineup that has been seeing beachballs at the plate lately. Also Poncedeleon has not lasted more than four innings in either of his last two starts. There is very little upside here to pursue, while the risk is immense.

Yovani Gallardo – TEX at LAA (9%)

Gallardo has poor control, a low chase rate and the second-lowest swinging strike rate of any pitcher with at least 70 innings this season. There’s no reason to start him in any format.

Jeff Brigham – MIA at NYM, Game 1 (2%)

Brigham got 10 swinging strikes in 82 pitches in his major league debut against the Blue Jays on Sept. 2, but he lasted only three innings. He did not get the Jays to hit a single ground ball, and given his 28.2 percent ground ball rate with Triple-A New Orleans, that might not have been all that fluky. The Mets have the second-highest flyball rate in the NL, but they rank 14th in the NL in home HR/FB. Maybe there’s a chance he could pull a Matt Boyd and get a whole bunch of harmless flyball contact, but I would rather find out with Brigham still on waivers or on someone else’s roster.

Eric Skoglund – KC vs. CHW (2%)

A home start against the White Sox might sound promising, but they actually have a higher Iso (.171) on the road than at homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field (.156). That’s not great news for Skoglund, who has allowed a .254 Iso at Kauffman Stadium this season. There’s no need to a gamble with the lefty in any format.