“Pat the Bat Goes Splat” was the alternative headline, but with widespread rumors that he is, in fact, Brian Wilson’s neighbor, “The Machine“, I thought it best to keep it simple and spare the little baby ears of some of the easily offended. But the bottom line is that, as a fantasy commodity, Pat Burrell is rapidly losing value….as he should be. Read the rest of this entry »
The night before Opening Day makes me feel like an 8 year old kid on Christmas Eve, staring at a mountain of presents sitting under the tree waiting to be torn into the next morning. That one’s definitely an Xbox, those are the video games, and somewhere in that pile is definitely a new baseball glove. Then morning comes and with unbridled excitement I rush to the pile and start ripping paper with a fury like no other. Socks and underwear? A sweater? These aren’t video games, they’re books. And who the hell gives an 8 year old a stationery set and thank you cards? I got rolled on Christmas morning!!
Well, that’s what’s going on now for many of us as we look over our rosters that we were absolutely gushing over as recently as last week. Suddenly you see a bunch of red crosses next to the names, platoon situations are being discussed, and statuses are being changed from “active” to “minors”. I know that Opening Day is supposed to be a day filled with excitement and fresh starts, but now it just feels like the fantasy gods have come down and kicked me in the groin….twice. Here’s what I’m bitching about: Read the rest of this entry »
On Thursday, we rolled out our First Base rankings and while it’s commonly referred to as a deep position, the bottom isn’t necessarily never ending. There are some gentlemen on the list that you might want to dodge on draft day, unless of course the price is just too good. With that in mind, here are your preseason First Base Fallers:
Butler headlines this list primarily due to unmet expectations. Butler was being drafted in the 75-79 range in 2010 as he was a rising star but after disappointing in his power and run producing output, his ADP going into 2011 appears to be in the 85-92 range (unless you’re Yahoo! and his ADP is inexplicably 66). Many managers have lost a little patience with him despite his contributions in the batting average category. He’s certainly not a dud, as the kid only turns 25 in April and he’s actually got a solid resume to date plus the history of a pretty fantastic hitter in the minor leagues.
Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of July.
10. Andres Torres .317-7-20-23-5
An injury to Mark DeRosa opened playing time for Torres earlier this year and he has seemingly claimed a permanent spot in the Giants’ outfield. Torres has dwarfed preseason expectations, as he outhomered his ZiPS projection in July alone. His overall numbers this past month are very similar to Aramis Ramirez but a 5-0 edge in SB gives Torres the nod.
9. Mark Teixeira .344-8-26-25-0
Remember when Teixeira looked washed up in April? Since May 1st, he has been the Teixeira of old, being a force in four fantasy categories. This is the second time in three months Teixeira made this list, as he was also mentioned in the May edition.
8. Joey Votto .362-9-17-24-1
Four players hit 9 HR in July and Votto had the fewest RBIs. The other three averaged 22.3 RBIs.
7. Josh Hamilton .418-5-17-17-1
It is not a big surprise to see Hamilton on this list but doing it with below average HR and RBI totals and the third-best AVG in the month is a bit unusual. The top fantasy hitter in June, Hamilton had the power numbers that month that he lacks here in July. But no one is complaining about this line.
6. Miguel Cabrera .398-6-23-17-0
He leads the American League in RBIs and is second in both AVG and HR. Updated ZiPS projects him to finish the year the same way, with a comfortable 13-RBI lead over Alex Rodriguez but finishing second to Josh Hamilton in AVG and second to Jose Bautista in HR.
5. Aubrey Huff .367-8-23-25-2
The Giants went 20-8 in the month of July and with two of their hitters being the top fantasy hitters in the month it is not a big surprise. The .367 AVG that Huff produced was the third highest for him in any month in his career. He batted .402 in July of 2008 and .385 in August of 2004.
4. Jose Bautista .347-11-29-20-1
Bautista is having such an amazing year that it is hard to remember how awful he was in April when he hit just .214 for the month. Actually, Bautista has been hot every other month, with big production in May and July and Mendoza-like production in April and June.
3. Buster Posey .417-7-24-20-0
If there were position adjustments, Posey would be an easy top pick for best hitter. Hopefully you did not trade him in Week #13.
2. Carlos Gonzalez .382-9-22-20-4
The Venezuelan native has been involved in two high-profile deals in his career, going from Arizona to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal and then Oakland to Colorado in the Matt Holliday deal. I think it’s safe to say he will be in Colorado for the foreseeable future.
1. Delmon Young .434-6-30-17-1
What kind of odds could you have gotten in Vegas before the season that Young would be the top fantasy hitter in a month? Generally considered a bust since arriving in the majors, the top overall pick in the 2003 Draft is justifying the hype. He led all major leaguers in AVG and was second in RBIs in July.
Honorable Mention – Carl Crawford, Nelson Cruz, Angel Pagan, Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks.
Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.
BUY
Nyjer Morgan – Owners drafted him for speed and Morgan has been successful on just 14 of 24 SB attempts. Also, he was hitting so poorly as the Nationals’ leadoff man that he was dropped lower in the order. But Morgan has played well the last two weeks while everyone is dumping on him. In his last 14 games (13 starts), Morgan is batting .286 with 9 R and 5 SB in 7 attempts. He is a three-category performer who struggled while suffering through a poor BABIP stretch. ZiPS (U) shows him with 35 SB and that seems to be on the low side of what he should be expected to do given his speed and recent success ratio.
Francisco Rodriguez – Ask any Mets fan or Rodriguez owner if they feel comfortable when he comes on to nail down the save. Tuesday he allowed a 2-run HR in the ninth inning but held on for the save, prompting Metsdradamus to label it an “8” on the Coronary Meter. But if you do not watch the games and just view the results in the box scores, you will see that Rodriguez’ results are more than satisfactory. In the last 30 games, he is tied with Jonathan Broxton for most Saves in the majors with 9. In that time span he has a nice 12.09 K/9 ratio. And even though hitters are enjoying a .393 BABIP against Rodriguez, he has a very acceptable 2.97 ERA in that stretch. The results can be even better in the future if his BABIP regresses to normal levels.
James Shields – He has dropped three straight decisions and now carries his highest ERA (4.55) since his rookie season in 2006. But Shields is on pace to record his highest K/9 (8.68) of his career and his xFIP of 3.39 is a personal best. The Rays righty is scuffling right now due to a 50 percent strand rate, the lowest of any qualified pitcher in the last 30 days. Once he improves with runners on base, Shields will be a pitcher to help in all four categories thanks to Tampa Bay’s offense and the chance for big Win totals.
SELL
Matt Cain – Everyone thought Cain was lucky last year but he is topping even that pace with his current hot streak. In 2009, Cain had an ERA 1.33 lower than his xFIP. This year it is 2.49 lower thanks to a 94.8 LOB% in his last six starts. Now, Cain’s ERA has been better than his xFIP each season of his career, so it is certainly not all due to luck. Still, now is a good time to look to sell high on a pitcher who has gone 4-0 with a 0.55 ERA in his last four starts.
Aubrey Huff – After a poor start to the season, Huff has been on an extended hot streak. In his last 41 games he is batting .333 with 8 HR and 26 RBIs. That has caused his ownership in CBS Sports leagues to rise from 40 to 75 percent. But it is questionable if Huff can maintain this pace going forward and there are also some playing time concerns going forward. With Buster Posey and Pat Burrell both making the case for consistent at-bats, Huff may find it hard to match last year’s 536 ABs.
Colby Rasmus – Last year LHP devoured Rasmus as they limited him to a .474 OPS in 115 PA. But this year Rasmus has a .951 OPS versus southpaws in 44 PA and he is faring even better against RHP. In his last 30 games, Rasmus has been hitting everything in sight, as he has a .444 BABIP and a 25.0 HR/FB rate. Neither the overall success nor the results versus LHP are likely to keep up their current pace, making Rasmus a sell-high candidate. ZiPS (R) has him for a .269 AVG and 11 HR, and it is hard to believe his trade value is not higher than that.
HUNCH
Mark Teixeira – A notorious slow starter, Teixeira got off to his usual slow start and then turned things around in May. But ZiPS was not all that thrilled with Teixeira to start the year and the updated version shows reduced totals in AVG, HR and RBIs. I am going to side with history and predict that Teixeira exceeds his ZiPS (U) totals of .252-27-104.
Giants signed 1B Aubrey Huff to a one-year, $3M contract.
Huff’s signing likely sets off a chain reaction: Pablo Sandoval will remain at third base, with Mark DeRosa manning left field.
While it’s questionable if he actually constitutes an upgrade over San Francisco’s in-house options, Huff will play first base for the Giants. You’ll hear Huff called a four-corners player in some circles. However, a look at his UZR totals shows that his glove is a clunker at every spot. That helps explain why Huff only DH’d and played first in 2009.
The 33 year-old posted wRC+ totals of 111 in 2006 and 104 in 2007, before exploding for a 139 wRC+ in 2008. Huff’s power production spiked, before tailing off considerably in 2009:
Huff has hit fly balls 36-37 percent of the time during his career, while grounding out about 45 percent. In ’08, he had a 41.7% fly ball rate and a 40.9 GB%. His ISO shot up to a career-high .247.
Now, a 32 year-old turning in a career year would be expected to decline the following season. But Huff turned in his worst campaign since 2001, posting a 79 wRC+ between the Orioles and the Tigers. His ISO plunged to .144, as he hit fly balls 36.4 percent and grounded out 48.1 percent. That was the highest ground ball rate among first basemen. When you might lose a foot race to a Molina brother (2.3 Speed Score in 2009), chopping the ball into the dirt so often is career suicide.
While Huff should bounce back somewhat next season, his bat is rather bland for the first base position. CHONE forecasts a .263/.327/.438 line in 2010, with a 103 wRC+. Bill James throws out a slightly sunnier projection: .267/.334/.445 (107 wRC+). It doesn’t help Huff’s value that his new home ball park saps lefty slugging. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, AT&T Park decreased left-handed HR production 12 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009. AT&T has played like a slight hitter’s park, however (103 park factor), as doubles and triples production is boosted.
Huff isn’t the sort of player you should target. The upside is average production for the position, while the downside is he’s done as a serviceable starter. There’s not much incentive in that proposition.
Hopefully you were able to pick up Matt Holliday and trade Russell Branyan last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.
Acquire
Jermaine Dye – He is striking out more than he ever has and his AVG is a disappointing .270 so far. His fantasy value is being propped up by HR but he has a 25 percent HR/FB rate. These are reasons why his current owner might trade him. But Dye has just a .243 AVG at home, thanks to a .234 BABIP at U.S. Cellular. He’s batted over .300 at home two of the last three seasons and has never had an AVG that low in his previous four years in Chicago. Dye is also uncharacteristically struggling versus LHP, against whom he has just a .152 AVG. Lifetime he is a .284 hitter versus southpaws. Even with a regression in HR, the updated ZiPS projects him to hit 24 the rest of the season and finish with 36 HR, which exceeds all of the pre-season projections.
David Aardsma – Since Brandon Morrow blew back-to-back saves on May 13-14, Aardsma has three saves and Morrow has none. Additionally, Morrow has pitched multiple innings in the sixth and seventh in his last three outings. Walks have always been a major issue for Aardsma and this year is no different. But this is a guy who is at the very least in the running for saves and is available on the waiver wire in over half of ESPN leagues.
Aubrey Huff – The updated ZiPS forecast shows Huff finishing below last year’s output in every fantasy category. But Huff is also a notoriously slow starter. At this point last year, Huff was batting .240-6-24 and he finished .304-32-108. It’s almost impossible to predict the finish that Huff enjoyed last season, but since he’s starting from a higher baseline, he doesn’t have quite so far to go. Huff already has a nice .209 ISO and his BB/K numbers are better than a year ago. He currently has a .277 BABIP, 20 points below his lifetime mark and 42 points below what he hit last year.
Joe Saunders – There is not one advanced metric that suggests you should pick him up. But at some point we have to stop looking at what we think he should do and instead look at what he has done. Saunders has a lifetime .691 winning percentage with a sub-four ERA in 73 games. The updated ZiPS forecast is not pretty; it shows him going 9-9 with a 4.40 ERA from here on out. That’s slightly more pessimistic than the pre-season projections forecasted for him. If you can acquire him for the price of his expected ZiPS for the remainder of 2009, I like Saunders’ chances of beating that projection.
Coco Crisp – His .751 OPS is identical to what it was a year ago. But in 2009, Crisp is achieving that with a .250 BABIP compared to a .322 mark last season. He may not crack double-digits in HR this season, but it would not be a surprise to see him bat .300 with 20 SB the rest of the way.
Trade
Jason Bartlett – At some point fantasy owners will start to take Bartlett seriously. Currently, his .373-7-30-32-14 line makes him the third-best fantasy player overall according to CBS Sports. The key for Bartlett owners is to find the moment when other owners feel enough time has elapsed to make him a serious acquisition target. Some owners may never consider Bartlett a trade target. That’s okay. The updated ZiPS shows him compiling a .293-5-36-52-15 line from here on out. Yes, a huge decline from where he is now, but still a valuable fantasy SS that could help most clubs. Bartlett owners have already “won” with his production until now. If they can get equivalent value for Bartlett’s RoS ZiPS at a position of need, that should be a win-win deal for both sides.
Zach Duke – He should be an attractive target for clubs that need pitching with his 2.60 K/BB ratio and 3.56 FIP. But Duke has a .261 BABIP and a 5.9 percent HR/FB ratio. Linear Weights shows his fastball turning from an awful pitch the last three seasons to one that is neutral despite having no increase in velocity. His RoS ZiPS shows him with an ERA of 5.24 and a 5-10 record.
B.J. Upton – The time to get a good return on Upton has come and gone. Now we are left with trying to salvage something for the rest of the year. He is striking out at an alarming rate (31.5%) and hitting for no power (.097 ISO). RoS ZiPS sees him hitting .257 with 11 HR. It is possible his trade value still exceeds that meager production.
Johnny Cueto – Everyone expected Cueto to improve upon last year’s numbers, although not many predicted what he’s produced so far in 2009. But Cueto’s lofty numbers carry several warning signs. His 3.64 FIP is well above his 2.37 ERA. Cueto has benefited from an 83.1 percent strand rate and a .253 BABIP. His K/9 is down 1.2 from a season ago and his HR/9 is less than half of what it was in 2008.
Michael Bourn – A one-category performer (SB), Bourn has actually been a plus in three categories so far, adding runs and AVG to his ledger. But the .366 BABIP won’t last and you should actively shop him to someone looking to make up ground in SB.
It was a rough couple of years in 2006 and 2007 for Aubrey Huff. In ’06, he continued his downward trend from his 30-HR, 100-RBI peak and ended up with just 21 HR and 66 RBIs while splitting time with Tampa Bay and Houston. Then he signed a three-year deal with the Orioles and saw his HR output drop to 15. Perhaps rock bottom occurred when following the 2007 season he appeared on the Bubba the Love Sponge radio show and trashed the city of Baltimore.
But then everything went right for Huff in 2008. A notoriously slow starter, he didn’t bury himself early and then went on a hot streak that lasted from the end of May through mid-September. Overall he finished with a .304-32-108-96-4 line, which made him a top-25 fantasy hitter.
So, how did he do it? Huff’s BB% and K% were right around career averages and his BABIP of .314 was not out of line with previous efforts (it was .310 the year before). He traded some ground balls for fly balls and line drives and established a career-best 41.7 percent fly ball rate. His HR/FB rate rebounded to 14.9 percent, up over six points from 2007 but just 0.6 percent above his lifetime average.
This means we have a once-solid hitter returning to previous levels. Huff seems like he has been around forever, but he turned 32 in the off-season. Is it reasonable to expect him to repeat his 2008 performance? How do others see him so far this year?
In the January 5th ADP report from Mock Draft Central, Huff checks in at number 83, considerably below his 2008 final rankings. He is behind Carlos Pena (67) and Derrek Lee (50) among others.
The nice thing about Huff is that he gives you flexibility, having played enough to qualify at both 1B (24) and 3B (33) in most leagues. That makes him more valuable than either Pena or Lee if they put up similar numbers.
Every major mark that Huff put up last year was in line with previous production, other than his FB%. And even if that regresses completely back to his career average, it still leaves him as a 28-HR player if he repeats the rest of his 2008 numbers. That would still leave him as a top-50 fantasy hitter.
Right now it appears that Huff is being undervalued in fantasy drafts.