Aubrey Huff a Giant
Giants signed 1B Aubrey Huff to a one-year, $3M contract.
Huff’s signing likely sets off a chain reaction: Pablo Sandoval will remain at third base, with Mark DeRosa manning left field.
While it’s questionable if he actually constitutes an upgrade over San Francisco’s in-house options, Huff will play first base for the Giants. You’ll hear Huff called a four-corners player in some circles. However, a look at his UZR totals shows that his glove is a clunker at every spot. That helps explain why Huff only DH’d and played first in 2009.
The 33 year-old posted wRC+ totals of 111 in 2006 and 104 in 2007, before exploding for a 139 wRC+ in 2008. Huff’s power production spiked, before tailing off considerably in 2009:
Huff has hit fly balls 36-37 percent of the time during his career, while grounding out about 45 percent. In ’08, he had a 41.7% fly ball rate and a 40.9 GB%. His ISO shot up to a career-high .247.
Now, a 32 year-old turning in a career year would be expected to decline the following season. But Huff turned in his worst campaign since 2001, posting a 79 wRC+ between the Orioles and the Tigers. His ISO plunged to .144, as he hit fly balls 36.4 percent and grounded out 48.1 percent. That was the highest ground ball rate among first basemen. When you might lose a foot race to a Molina brother (2.3 Speed Score in 2009), chopping the ball into the dirt so often is career suicide.
While Huff should bounce back somewhat next season, his bat is rather bland for the first base position. CHONE forecasts a .263/.327/.438 line in 2010, with a 103 wRC+. Bill James throws out a slightly sunnier projection: .267/.334/.445 (107 wRC+). It doesn’t help Huff’s value that his new home ball park saps lefty slugging. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, AT&T Park decreased left-handed HR production 12 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009. AT&T has played like a slight hitter’s park, however (103 park factor), as doubles and triples production is boosted.
Huff isn’t the sort of player you should target. The upside is average production for the position, while the downside is he’s done as a serviceable starter. There’s not much incentive in that proposition.
A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.
Aubrey Huff a Giant… exclamation point on the sentence “Brian Sabean doesn’t know what he’s doing!”
According to ZiPS projection system, only two players on the Giants 2009 roster have a greater than 2% chance to hit (at least) 30 home runs next year, and the Giants non-tendered one of them. Ryan Garko was also one of only three players on the Giants in 2009 who is projected to have a 20% or greater chance of posting an OBP greater than or equal to .375. Of those who will be with the Giants next season, only Kung Fu Panda has a remotely and statistically relevant (5% or greater) chance of hitting 45+ doubles in 2010. Furthermore, if you click the ZiPS link (above) rather than look at my screen shot, you will notice that only Kung Fu Panda is projected to be at least 5% better than the average offensive player next season.
ZiPS called for a .260/.323/.431 slash line with 18 HR and a 100 OPS+ for the Tigers. Can’t say the move to ATT Park is going to boost those numbers
Perhaps this move was just Brian Sabean’s way of telling Dayton Moore (who recently signed Scotty Pods) that he is challenging him for the title of worst GM ever.
more:
http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2010/01/giants-seeking-left-handed-bat-sign.html
I’m not sure how much you can pan a 3M investment though. No great shakes but he could very well be worth the expense next year.
Sanchez was the anchor for this off-season– the money that really could have been put to better use.
I think the main criticism of the signing is this: Huff might be “worth” the money in a general sense, but for the Giants specifically, he offers nothing above what the guys already on the roster do. When you bring in, say, a 1-1.5 WAR player to replace someone who projects at that level or possiblty above it, then you have spent $3 million while actually adding zero wins to your roster. It’s like burning money.
As Giants fans, we’re pretty used to burning money. This is only a small pile of money, so we’re okay with it, because the Zito and Rowand and Renteria bonfires have been burning for years.
Quincy lol!!!
archilochusColubris
I thought a Sanchez, DeRosa, and LaRoache > Bay.
Does Sanchez, DeRosa, Huff, and 1.5M > Bay?