Aubrey Huff a Giant

Giants signed 1B Aubrey Huff to a one-year, $3M contract.

Huff’s signing likely sets off a chain reaction: Pablo Sandoval will remain at third base, with Mark DeRosa manning left field.

While it’s questionable if he actually constitutes an upgrade over San Francisco’s in-house options, Huff will play first base for the Giants. You’ll hear Huff called a four-corners player in some circles. However, a look at his UZR totals shows that his glove is a clunker at every spot. That helps explain why Huff only DH’d and played first in 2009.

The 33 year-old posted wRC+ totals of 111 in 2006 and 104 in 2007, before exploding for a 139 wRC+ in 2008. Huff’s power production spiked, before tailing off considerably in 2009:

Huff has hit fly balls 36-37 percent of the time during his career, while grounding out about 45 percent. In ’08, he had a 41.7% fly ball rate and a 40.9 GB%. His ISO shot up to a career-high .247.

Now, a 32 year-old turning in a career year would be expected to decline the following season. But Huff turned in his worst campaign since 2001, posting a 79 wRC+ between the Orioles and the Tigers. His ISO plunged to .144, as he hit fly balls 36.4 percent and grounded out 48.1 percent. That was the highest ground ball rate among first basemen. When you might lose a foot race to a Molina brother (2.3 Speed Score in 2009), chopping the ball into the dirt so often is career suicide.

While Huff should bounce back somewhat next season, his bat is rather bland for the first base position. CHONE forecasts a .263/.327/.438 line in 2010, with a 103 wRC+. Bill James throws out a slightly sunnier projection: .267/.334/.445 (107 wRC+). It doesn’t help Huff’s value that his new home ball park saps lefty slugging. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, AT&T Park decreased left-handed HR production 12 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009. AT&T has played like a slight hitter’s park, however (103 park factor), as doubles and triples production is boosted.

Huff isn’t the sort of player you should target. The upside is average production for the position, while the downside is he’s done as a serviceable starter. There’s not much incentive in that proposition.