Pat Burrell Rides the Pine

“Pat the Bat Goes Splat” was the alternative headline, but with widespread rumors that he is, in fact, Brian Wilson’s neighbor, “The Machine“, I thought it best to keep it simple and spare the little baby ears of some of the easily offended.  But the bottom line is that, as a fantasy commodity, Pat Burrell is rapidly losing value….as he should be.

I’ve gone back and forth with numerous Giants fans over the use of the 34 year old Burrell this season and have often found myself having debates that are the equivalent of banging my head against a brick wall.  The problem with talking to a World Series starved fan that has just had his first taste of success is that rational thought sometimes just goes out the window.  While yes, his career OBP sits at .361 and his current is .351, the rest of the numbers and his overall performance this year indicate that he is nothing more than a pinch-hitting, right-handed bat off the bench.  His days of being a productive starter are behind him and his use as anything more than a potential fill-in for your fantasy roster are gone as well.

Let’s just get the pro-Pat OBP argument out of the way.  We can all agree that his career and current OBP are at a level that any manager and fantasy owner would love.  However, while in the past it was a combination of base hits, home runs and walks, today it is more of an inflated number resulting from a 14 BB% and a few late game home runs in contests already long decided.  He actually had one that tied the game, but miscues in the outfield caused by his presence in the lineup quickly erased that.

But just because you can get on base, doesn’t necessarily mean you are still being productive for your team.  Sure, you have no control what the hitters behind you do at the plate, but Burrell will always be more of a base-clogger than a base runner.  He is no threat to steal, and when he draws a walk, it almost always takes a minimum of two base hits to get him around to score.  Those cement clown shoes that he’s got on his feet probably make running a difficult task.  He’s been on base 38 times this season and has come around to score on just 11 occasions.  Again, I know he can’t control what the guys behind him do, but it’s not like he can aid the team in manufacturing a run either.

Beyond the OBP, again, Burrell has very little to offer.  If we were talking about real baseball, I’d certainly go off on his defensive shortcomings, but since this is the fantasy section, I’ll leave it to his dwindling offensive efforts.  Where to begin…?

Should we talk about the 33.3 K%?  The diminished 72.7 Contact %?  How about the increased 10.5 SwStr %?  The fact that he hasn’t gone deep since April 18th do anything for you?  I’ve also been looking all over for a cumulative total for men left on base this year, but perhaps the minions of The Machine are keeping that secret somehow.

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Obviously, manager Bruce Bochy has finally came to grips with the fact that starting Burrell in left field is no longer a productive option for the team.  He hasn’t written him into the lineup card since May 8th and the Giants are doing just fine, having won three of their last four.  They are going with a more defensive minded outfield, and while offensively, they are no where near juggernaut status, they are starting to adopt more of a hit and run/speed based way to manufacture runs and win games.  They won the World Series with great starting pitching and sound defense, and that is exactly how they should proceed when defending their title.

And I’d be hard-pressed to see much of a change moving forward.  Burrell should get the occasional start based on pitching matchups, but his days as a full time starter are likely behind him…atleast with the Giants.  Not only does the team have a glut of outfielders that have proven to be more reliable and well-rounded at this point, but reports of prospect Brandon Belt playing the outfield in Triple-A means that the club wants him back up and they are not planning on moving Aubrey Huff from first base again.

Plan your fantasy strategy accordingly, but consider Burrell as a once productive racehorse put out to stud.  Feel free to leave him on the bench, and in some cases, you can drop him outright.





Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com

20 Comments
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Daniel D
15 years ago

Burrell is valuable to the Giants. He is a great clubhouse guy and he will come up with a big hit more often then the rest of the bats we have. We won the World Series with pitching, defense, and character. When Pat is in the lineup the whole lineup has much better plate discipline and starters don’t last as long against the Giants. Bochy will ride the hot bat, and if Pat strings some good AB’s together he will play. Exactly how it should be.

quincy0191Member since 2020
15 years ago
Reply to  Howard Bender

More than that, whether or not he’s a great clubhouse guy has nothing to do with his fantasy value.

Where did you see the comments he made regarding playing time? I can’t find them.

spliff(TONE)
15 years ago

I find it a little early to jump to the conclusion that you have. He was much worse to start the year with the Rays last year, yet we all saw how he bounced back after being picked up by the Giants. I personally think he’s the second best OF option on this team until Belt gets recalled.

Chris
15 years ago

The Giants need him in the lineup, if only to make the opposing pitcher throw some pitchers. And to keep Ross, Rowand and Schierholtz on the bench.

cpdodger
15 years ago
Reply to  Howard Bender

burrell definitely outhitting rowand and schierholtz in terms of wOBA

Mario Mendoza
15 years ago

Is this RotoGraphs or FanGraphs? I’m a fantasy owner, not a Giants fan. Do I care when his HRs come? Or about his OF miscues? Or that he’s clogging the bases for other peoples’ fantasy players?

No!

quincy0191Member since 2020
15 years ago
Reply to  Howard Bender

I don’t think I’ve ever heard “blindly look at his stats” used and I’m pretty sure it’s rather out of place on a Fangraphs-affiliated blog. Are you seriously suggesting that looking at what Burrell has done and concluding based on the .351 wOBA and typical presence in the middle of the order (maximizing R and RBI opportunities) that he’s a solid OF option is somehow blind? How is it “blind” to evaluate a player based on statistical achievements, and moreover, what the hell is that statement doing on Fangraphs?

As for Burrell’s “shoddy” play in the field, well, fantasy baseball doesn’t care about fielding, anyone expecting him to provide SB’s isn’t going to be helped by any kind of advice, and strikeouts will lower his average, but again that’s something we already knew. You’re close to being right when you say these things could affect his time in the field, but the Giants’ other options are Aaron Rowand, Nate Schierholtz, Darren Ford, and Mark DeRosa. Rowand was rightly benched last year, and while he may get spot starts he’s hitting far worse than Burrell WITH an inflated BABIP. Schierholtz is a career 4th/5th OF whose role is as Burrell’s late-inning defensive replacement. Ford can run and play defense, but his offense is so bad he’ll never get a starting job. Even if DeRosa weren’t needed in the infield, his offense is much worse than Burrell’s and he’s no great shakes in left either. Bochy knows Burrell is his best option in left, and he continues to start. The last game he DIDN’T start was April 10th.

quincy0191Member since 2020
15 years ago
Reply to  Howard Bender

Sorry, last game he didn’t play was April 10th. He’s been PH-ing a lot since then.

MetsoxMember since 2016
15 years ago

Ahh, a nice base clogging reference, been too long…

IdolsOfTheMind
15 years ago

I’ve watched every Giants game. Burrell has been their 2nd best hitter after Sandoval, who is now on the DL. Rowand is still garbage (“and he swings and misses at a slider in the dirt!”), and the fact that he’s getting PT over Burrell is ridiculous.

Daniel D
15 years ago
Reply to  IdolsOfTheMind

I haven’t seen Burrell take a bad swing this year. He will hit. He makes everybody in the lineup more patient.

KY
15 years ago

Wouldn’t anyone else at fangraphs, including yourself, normally laugh at “hasn’t homered since April 18th”, “few late game home runs”, “no threat to steal”, “on base 28 times but scored only 11”?

I think its a great point for fantasy people as you mention in the comments because it will/has result in his benching. But your article pretends to know that he should be benched, when none of those numbers have enough oomph behind them with the few at bats we have to say that he should in real life.

quincy0191Member since 2020
15 years ago

I can’t believe I keep having to write such nasty comments, but maybe I wouldn’t if a few decent articles showed up on here.

The almost complete lack of fantasy analysis notwithstanding, what in the world makes you think that Pat Burrell is not the best option to start in left for the Giants? Is it Aaron Rowand’s .310 wOBA and negative defensive value despite a .348 BABIP? Perhaps Mark DeRosa’s .254 wOBA? Nate Schierholtz’s entire career of mediocrity? Darren Ford being unable to hit his weight despite blazing speed? Who exactly are the Giants blocking by keeping Pat and his .349 wOBA (third on the team, behind Andres Torres and the injured Pablo Sandoval) in left?

Fact is, Burrell is one of the only guys doing anything right now. If Miguel Tejada can keep anyone out of the lineup, benching Burrell makes zero sense.

Beyond that, sure, Burrell is not OF1 or anything. He’s likely only valuable in deep or NL-only leagues. But we knew that. We knew he wasn’t going to be piling on the R and RBI because the Giants’ offense just isn’t that good. We knew he wasn’t going to provide average, and maybe one SB. The inclusion of a defensive evaluation is just laughable. These are not original conclusions. Anyone who didn’t know that probably used their first-round pick on Derek Jeter.

Unfortunately, the lack of/terrible fantasy analysis isn’t the worst part. Do you not get that this is Rotographs, AKA the fantasy side of a saber-oriented website? And you’re throwing around terms like “clogging the bases”. Because Burrell is just slowing down all the speedsters on the Giants, who are, as we well know, one of the fastest teams in the majors, perhaps one of the fastest all time. Nothing like Huff, Tejada, Sanchez, and Posey to inject some speed into your lineup. And the 33.3% K rate is so off his career rate of 28.2%, and completely atypical for a power hitter.

I noticed that you also didn’t mention the good parts. Like how his HR/FB is the highest it’s been since 2008. Same for LD%. And BB%. Or that his wRC+ is 117; Pat Burrell is an above-average hitter on a team with five of them including him.

This whole article reads like it’s written by someone who doesn’t like Pat Burrell. Which is fine, but it shouldn’t color one’s analysis of him, especially when they’re presenting it to others as advice, and that’s definitely not the case here. The idea that Burrell needs to be benched in favor of…I don’t know, because you didn’t say (Belt?), probably since he’s one of the best hitters on the team and arguing for anyone over him would be met with instant incredulity. Really, there is nothing here that tells anyone who knows anything about Burrell something new. He’s most valuable for his OBP and power, which comes at the expense of SB and AVG. He perhaps won’t have the best R and RBI numbers since the Giants’ lineup generally isn’t the best and most of it is mired in a slump. He’s probably not rosterable except in deep leagues and NL-only leagues. Look, I managed to do everything you did (except more accurately) in three sentences instead of an article, and I don’t sound like I hate Burrell.

wobatus
15 years ago
Reply to  quincy0191

It really pisses me off that he is riding the pine (and it is very odd that when he gets starts it is against lefties like Doug davis when he hasn’t hit lefties in 3 years, which is maybe flukey and sss but fairly stark) considering how much better he is as a hitter than Rowand, although their WARs are comparable. I had Hamilton, Snider, Bradley and Burrell as eligible LFs in my league. hamilton breaks his arm. Fine, i have Snider. Demoted. OK, i have Bradley. Despite a wRC+ that’s better than many a starting mariner, DFA’d. Burreell? benched. Aaaarghhhhh! That’s DL, demotion, DFAd and dissed and dismissed.

Daniel D
15 years ago

Note to self: Don’t bash on a player on a defending world champ team.

Maverick
15 years ago

I’m pretty sure the fantasy analysis in the article is that he is not playing good enough overall baseball to be given sufficient playing time that would allow his .351 OBP to be a factor in his fantasy value.

Seems simple to me. A lot of non fantasy information in the article, sure. But that non fantasy information is why he isn’t going to be playing. His bat doesn’t make up for his poor defense on a team that can’t afford any more liabilities in the field.That’s all the article was stating…