Starting Pitcher Chart – September 28th, 2021 by Paul Sporer September 27, 2021 With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question. Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks. September 28th Starter Chart PITCHER TM OPP 10 12 15+ L5 STATS OPP wOBA L30 days NOTE Brandon Woodruff MIL at STL x x x 2.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 29% K-BB .316 – 14th Has gone exactly 6 in all of his L5, but just a 2-3 record Zack Wheeler PHI at ATL x x x 2.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 22% K-BB .330 – 9th Leading MLB in IP (206.3) and NL in Ks (240) Adam Wainwright STL MIL x x x 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6% K-BB .314 – 16th Hit by MIL last time out, but I’m not sitting him Charlie Morton ATL PHI x x x 3.19 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 17% K-BB .352 – 4th Hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in a start since April Logan Webb SFG ARI x x x 4.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 22% K-BB .271 – 30th A couple duds mixed in these L5, but still an easy start Walker Buehler LAD SDP x x x 6.08 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10% K-BB .310 – 17th A couple duds mixed in these L5, but still an easy start Chris Sale BOS at BAL x x x 2.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 18% K-BB .333 – 10th Only has one bad start since returning in mid-Aug. Aaron Civale CLE at KCR x x x 5.85 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 15% K-BB .305 – 20th Wildly inconsistent: 0, 5, 0, 1, 5, 0, 7 ER in his L7 José Urquidy HOU TBR x x x 4.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 14% K-BB .322 – 12th Back up to 80ish pitches so he should be able to get 5+ IP Marcus Stroman NYM MIA x x x 3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 15% K-BB .296 – 26th Has allowed 3 ER in 12.7 IP v. MIA this yr Brady Singer KCR CLE x x x 3.03 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 16% K-BB .292 – 27th One dud stains the L5 run, I’m in v. that CLE offense Trevor Rogers MIA at NYM x x 4.15 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 17% K-BB .302 – 23rd Has gone 5+ IP just once in L5 (his last start – 5.3 IP/10 K) Chris Bassitt OAK at SEA x x 1.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 24% K-BB .304 – 21st 3 strong IP in return, but not be turned loose for 5+ IP Tyler Alexander DET at MIN x 3.20 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 9% K-BB .307 – 27th Remember when he went 7 IP/1 ER at TOR? That was fun Luke Weaver ARI at SFG x 3.51 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 15% K-BB .361 – 1st This is risky bc of the Giants, but I’m open to it Alec Mills CHC at PIT x 5.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11% K-BB .306 – 19th The matchup is the only potential allure Yusei Kikuchi SEA OAK x 5.03 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 8% K-BB .316 – 15th Has just 1 outing of 5 IP in his last 5 starts A.J. Alexy TEX LAA x 5.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 0% K-BB .281 – 29th Seemingly locked into 85ish pitch outings, so 5 IP aren’t a lock Mitch Keller PIT CHC x 5.00 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 9% K-BB .338 – 6th Might like the 3.32 ERA of his L4, but heed the 1.57 WHIP in that time Kyle Freeland COL WAS x 5.79 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 10% K-BB .336 – 8th Does have a 3.91 ERA in 13 2H starts Yu Darvish SDP LAD x 6.48 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 19% K-BB .297 – 25th Seems to pull the rug every time we think he’s right again Michael Wacha TBR at HOU x 4.44 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 27% K-BB .337 – 8th Far too inconsistent to throw him against HOU Bruce Zimmermann BAL BOS 4.88 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 15% K-BB .335 – 9th He has gone 5+ IP in 4 straight (CWS, MIN, NYM, TBR) Packy Naughton LAA at TEX 5.03 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 2% K-BB .264 – 29th Matchup isn’t enough to entice me here Reynaldo López CWS CIN 4.84 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 18% K-BB .322 – 13th 4 HR and 9 R in last 2 GS have brought him back to earth Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 TOR NYY 10.07 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 18% K-BB .298 – 25th Brutal 2H (5.61 ERA in 12 GS) incl. three 7 ER outings Jameson Taillon NYY at TOR 7.01 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 15% K-BB .361 – 2nd #NeverToronto Patrick Corbin WAS at COL 5.16 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 7% K-BB .318 – 15th 3 QS in his L4 but no chance I’m throwing him in Coors Trevor Williams NYM MIA 3.68 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 14% K-BB .296 – 26th Stats are for L5 appearances (2 starts/3 relief) Daniel Castano MIA at NYM 5.19 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 4% K-BB .302 – 23rd Avg’ing <5 IP in his 4 MLB starts Charlie Barnes MIN DET 6.75 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 3% K-BB .313 – 16th Meager 11% K% plus low W probability saps appeal *home vL for COL