Starting Pitcher Chart – September 28th, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

September 28th Starter Chart
Brandon Woodruff MIL at STL x x x 2.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 29% K-BB .316 – 14th Has gone exactly 6 in all of his L5, but just a 2-3 record
Zack Wheeler PHI at ATL x x x 2.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 22% K-BB .330 – 9th Leading MLB in IP (206.3) and NL in Ks (240)
Adam Wainwright STL MIL x x x 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6% K-BB .314 – 16th Hit by MIL last time out, but I’m not sitting him
Charlie Morton ATL PHI x x x 3.19 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 17% K-BB .352 – 4th Hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in a start since April
Logan Webb SFG ARI x x x 4.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 22% K-BB .271 – 30th A couple duds mixed in these L5, but still an easy start
Walker Buehler LAD SDP x x x 6.08 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10% K-BB .310 – 17th A couple duds mixed in these L5, but still an easy start
Chris Sale BOS at BAL x x x 2.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 18% K-BB .333 – 10th Only has one bad start since returning in mid-Aug.
Aaron Civale CLE at KCR x x x 5.85 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 15% K-BB .305 – 20th Wildly inconsistent: 0, 5, 0, 1, 5, 0, 7 ER in his L7
José Urquidy HOU TBR x x x 4.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 14% K-BB .322 – 12th Back up to 80ish pitches so he should be able to get 5+ IP
Marcus Stroman NYM MIA x x x 3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 15% K-BB .296 – 26th Has allowed 3 ER in 12.7 IP v. MIA this yr
Brady Singer KCR CLE x x x 3.03 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 16% K-BB .292 – 27th One dud stains the L5 run, I’m in v. that CLE offense
Trevor Rogers MIA at NYM x x 4.15 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 17% K-BB .302 – 23rd Has gone 5+ IP just once in L5 (his last start – 5.3 IP/10 K)
Chris Bassitt OAK at SEA x x 1.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 24% K-BB .304 – 21st 3 strong IP in return, but not be turned loose for 5+ IP
Tyler Alexander DET at MIN x 3.20 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 9% K-BB .307 – 27th Remember when he went 7 IP/1 ER at TOR? That was fun
Luke Weaver ARI at SFG x 3.51 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 15% K-BB .361 – 1st This is risky bc of the Giants, but I’m open to it
Alec Mills CHC at PIT x 5.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11% K-BB .306 – 19th The matchup is the only potential allure
Yusei Kikuchi SEA OAK x 5.03 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 8% K-BB .316 – 15th Has just 1 outing of 5 IP in his last 5 starts
A.J. Alexy TEX LAA x 5.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 0% K-BB .281 – 29th Seemingly locked into 85ish pitch outings, so 5 IP aren’t a lock
Mitch Keller PIT CHC x 5.00 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 9% K-BB .338 – 6th Might like the 3.32 ERA of his L4, but heed the 1.57 WHIP in that time
Kyle Freeland COL WAS x 5.79 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 10% K-BB .336 – 8th Does have a 3.91 ERA in 13 2H starts
Yu Darvish SDP LAD x 6.48 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 19% K-BB .297 – 25th Seems to pull the rug every time we think he’s right again
Michael Wacha TBR at HOU x 4.44 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 27% K-BB .337 – 8th Far too inconsistent to throw him against HOU
Bruce Zimmermann BAL BOS 4.88 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 15% K-BB .335 – 9th He has gone 5+ IP in 4 straight (CWS, MIN, NYM, TBR)
Packy Naughton LAA at TEX 5.03 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 2% K-BB .264 – 29th Matchup isn’t enough to entice me here
Reynaldo López CWS CIN 4.84 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 18% K-BB .322 – 13th 4 HR and 9 R in last 2 GS have brought him back to earth
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 TOR NYY 10.07 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 18% K-BB .298 – 25th Brutal 2H (5.61 ERA in 12 GS) incl. three 7 ER outings
Jameson Taillon NYY at TOR 7.01 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 15% K-BB .361 – 2nd #NeverToronto
Patrick Corbin WAS at COL 5.16 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 7% K-BB .318 – 15th 3 QS in his L4 but no chance I’m throwing him in Coors
Trevor Williams NYM MIA 3.68 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 14% K-BB .296 – 26th Stats are for L5 appearances (2 starts/3 relief)
Daniel Castano MIA at NYM 5.19 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 4% K-BB .302 – 23rd Avg’ing <5 IP in his 4 MLB starts
Charlie Barnes MIN DET 6.75 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 3% K-BB .313 – 16th Meager 11% K% plus low W probability saps appeal
*home vL for COL

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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9 months ago

Tyler Anderson starting for Kikuchi today, but after last start (as a devastated fantasy owner) I would put him at the very bottom. The Reds are pretty good against lefties on the road too.