Starting Pitcher Chart – October 1st, 2021

September 30, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

October 1st SP Chart

PITCHER	TM	OPP	10	12	15+	L5 STATS	OPP wOBA L30 days	NOTE
Ranger Suárez	PHI	at MIA	x	x	x	1.41 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 23% K-BB	.229 – 30th	Has a 1.69 ERA/1.09 WHIP in 58.7 IP as a starter
Sandy Alcantara	MIA	PHI	x	x	x	2.29 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 25% K-BB	.335 – 7th	This brilliant finish will drive his price for ’22
Luis Castillo	CIN	at PIT	x	x	x	2.87 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.310 – 22nd	Could push ERA to <4.00 after posting a 7.22 thru 2 mos.
Lance Lynn	CWS	DET	x	x	x	4.76 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 23% K-BB	.317 – 15th	Couple duds in his L5, but no chance I’d sit him
Shane McClanahan	TBR	at NYY	x	x	x	2.77 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.311 – 18th	Rolling into the playoffs, but might be limited w/their clinch
Eric Lauer	MIL	at LAD	x	x	x	1.15 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 21% K-BB	.349 – 5th	He’s been a fantastic find this yr w/114 IP of a 2.93 ERA
Marco Gonzales	SEA	LAA	x	x	x	3.90 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.291 – 24th	Had a 5.88 ERA at the ASB, but a 2.68 2H ERA has him at 4.00
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	MIL	x	x	x	3.16 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 28% K-BB	.295- 22nd	Not untouchable Kershaw, but I’m still starting him
Anthony DeSclafani	SFG	SDP	x	x	x	2.67 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.313 – 17th	Only sub-5 IP outings in L5 were both at Coors
Néstor Cortes Jr.	NYY	TBR	x	x	x	3.04 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 26% K-BB	.359 – 4th	Hasn’t made it 5 in the L2 so not the best for W chasers
Joe Musgrove	SDP	at SFG	x	x	x	5.14 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 12% K-BB	.373 – 1st	12% BB in L5 holding him back, but I’m still starting him
Sean Manaea	OAK	at HOU	x	x	x	3.77 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 22% K-BB	.346 – 6th	Dominated HOU last time out (7 IP/1 ER), can he do it again?
Huascar Ynoa	ATL	NYM	x	x	x	6.75 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.334 – 8th	Hasn’t reached 5 IP in any of the last 3 starts
Steven Matz	TOR	BAL	x	x	x	4.21 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.324 – 12th	Now has a 2.70 ERA in his L10
Eli Morgan	CLE	TEX	x	x	x	3.60 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.288 – 26th	Looking to close strong w/a 3rd straight QS
Eduardo Rodriguez	BOS	at WAS		x	x	3.96 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 21% K-BB	.329 – 10th	0 W in L4 but pitching well enough to stream
José Suarez	LAA	at SEA		x	x	3.41 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10% K-BB	.316 – 16th	Not a bad gamble, but definitely contains risk
Jon Gray	COL	at ARI		x	x	5.23 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.274 – 29th	Not that great on the road (4.59 ERA/1.52 WHIP)
Adbert Alzolay	CHC	at STL		x	x	7.13 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.318 – 14th	Has a 1.56 ERA/0.93 WHIP as RP in Sept.; up to 59 pit last time out
Wily Peralta	DET	at CWS		x	x	1.75 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4% K-BB	.324 – 12th	Can he survive one more on this tightrope?
John Gant	MIN	at KCR			x	3.57 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.309 – 23rd	Hiiighly volatile stream here
Josh Rogers	WAS	BOS				2.73 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6% K-BB	.335 – 8th	Hasn’t been bad in Sept., but BOS is tough to go against here
Brandon Bielak	HOU	OAK				4.76 ERA, 2.12 WHIP, 19% K-BB	.314 – 16th	Has peaked at 55 pitches in his 2 starts so far
Dakota Hudson	STL	CHC				Just 2nd app. of ’21	.346 – 4th	Made it 61 pitches in 3.7 IP follower appearance last time out
Tylor Megill	NYM	at ATL				6.48 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.327 – 11th	Matchup is too risky to push this
Humberto Castellanos	ARI	COL				5.55 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6% K-BB	.313 – 18th	Has gone 5 IP in 4 of L5 and has 2 Ws, too
Jon Heasley	KCR	MIN				3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.293 – 25th	Haven’t seen much in his 2 starts to generate upside
Drew Anderson	TEX	CLE				Following Spencer Howard	.293 – 25th	Hasn’t topped 50 pit since mid-Aug
Wil Crowe	PIT	CIN				7.06 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 6% K-BB	.337 – 6th	Nothing to chase here
Thomas Eshelman	BAL	at TOR				8.35 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, -2% K-BB	.360 – 2nd	Will follow opener Conner Greene