Projection Busting Research Updated (2021 Edition)
I’ve been grinding my way through the various inputs I use in addition to projection to make my team-building decisions. It’s time for the final few lists.
For reference, here are the factors I’ve already published.
- Hitters who played through an injury.
- Starter and Hitter Injury Risks
- Pitcher Single Season Projections and pERA Values
- Hitter StatCast and Single Season Projections
Also, I’m not going to take into account two minor league related factors: Voit/Muncy List (2020 list) and bumping up hitting prospect projections. Without a minor league season, the Voit/Muncy list can’t be generated.
As for bumping up hitting prospects, I’m going to pass this year. I know there will be prospect rankings but I’ll not give two-shits about them. Even with some reports from the alternate sites and fall instructs, the information will be spotty at best.
Hitters and Pitch Types (link)
I found three hitter types whose projections are off because of how they handle certain pitches in the strike zone. Two hitter groups that struggle are those who can’t hit slow fastballs down the middle of the plate and those who can’t recognize a changeup. The one group who shows some positive projection are hitters who don’t miss when they swing at non-fastballs.
Slow Fastball Swinging-Strike Rate
| Name | Slow FB SwStr% |
|---|---|
| Travis Demeritte | 46.2% |
| Anthony Alford | 38.5% |
| Meibrys Viloria | 33.3% |
| Mike Freeman | 29.4% |
| Kyle Garlick | 25.0% |
| D.J. Stewart | 23.9% |
| Derek Dietrich | 23.3% |
| Randy Arozarena | 22.7% |
| Jo Adell | 22.4% |
| Luis Robert | 22.1% |
| Mike Zunino | 22.0% |
| Andrew Velazquez | 22.0% |
| Eddy Alvarez | 21.4% |
| Rafael Devers | 21.3% |
| Joseph Odom | 21.1% |
| Adeiny Hechavarria | 20.7% |
| Francisco Mejia | 20.0% |
| Tim Lopes | 19.6% |
| Bobby Dalbec | 19.0% |
| Beau Taylor | 18.8% |
| Pablo Sandoval | 18.5% |
| Mike Brosseau | 18.4% |
| Keston Hiura | 18.3% |
| Cedric Mullins II | 18.1% |
| Josh Donaldson | 17.6% |
| Tomas Nido | 17.6% |
| Matt Chapman | 17.4% |
| Chris Taylor | 17.1% |
| Matt Thaiss | 16.7% |
| Mark Payton | 16.7% |
| Mallex Smith | 16.0% |
| Stephen Piscotty | 15.9% |
| Johan Camargo | 15.7% |
| Omar Narvaez | 15.6% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 15.4% |
| C.J. Cron | 15.4% |
| Steven Souza Jr. | 15.4% |
| Tyrone Taylor | 15.0% |
Changeup Swinging-Strike Rate Swinging-Strike Rate
Non-Fastball Swinging-Strike Rate
| Name | Non-Fastball SwStr% |
|---|---|
| Christian Arroyo | 0.0% |
| Magneuris Sierra | 0.0% |
| Andrew Stevenson | 0.0% |
| Reese McGuire | 0.0% |
| Jonah Heim | 0.0% |
| Taylor Jones | 0.0% |
| Nicky Delmonico | 0.0% |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.0% |
| Jordy Mercer | 0.0% |
| Yolmer Sanchez | 0.0% |
| Sergio Alcantara | 0.0% |
| Erick Mejia | 0.0% |
| Michael Brantley | 1.1% |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.2% |
| Jon Berti | 1.4% |
| Adam Engel | 2.2% |
| Ehire Adrianza | 2.2% |
| Tim Locastro | 2.2% |
| Mookie Betts | 2.3% |
| Adam Eaton | 2.4% |
| Stephen Vogt | 2.5% |
| Nick Markakis | 2.7% |
| Eric Sogard | 2.7% |
| Isaac Paredes | 2.7% |
| Chad Pinder | 2.9% |
| Cedric Mullins II | 3.0% |
| Vimael Machin | 3.0% |
| Brandon Drury | 3.1% |
| Nick Madrigal | 3.2% |
| Ben Gamel | 3.4% |
| Luis Urias | 3.5% |
| Will Smith | 3.5% |
| Eddy Alvarez | 3.6% |
| Anthony Rizzo | 3.6% |
| Steven Duggar | 3.7% |
| Yandy Diaz | 3.8% |
| Rangel Ravelo | 3.8% |
| Joey Wendle | 4.0% |
| Joseph Odom | 4.0% |
| Tommy La Stella | 4.1% |
| DJ LeMahieu | 4.1% |
| Max Kepler | 4.2% |
| Scott Heineman | 4.2% |
| Tyrone Taylor | 4.2% |
| David Fletcher | 4.2% |
| Jason Kipnis | 4.2% |
| Mike Freeman | 4.3% |
| Lewin Diaz | 4.3% |
| Wyatt Mathisen | 4.3% |
| Luis Arraez | 4.3% |
| Enrique Hernandez | 4.4% |
| Jonathan Arauz | 4.4% |
| Logan Morrison | 4.5% |
| Austin Hays | 4.5% |
| Robinson Cano | 4.5% |
| Austin Nola | 4.5% |
| Harrison Bader | 4.8% |
| Taylor Ward | 4.8% |
| Evan Longoria | 4.8% |
| Sandy Leon | 5.0% |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 5.0% |
Limited Arsenals (link)
Pitchers who have a more diverse arsenal have historically beaten their projections than those pitchers with just one or two pitches. From the article, there are four pitcher groups (Note: four-seam, two-seam, and sinkers are combined into one fastball group).
Two Pitches at 85% or More, Greater Than 60% Fastball
| Name | IP | FB% | CH% | CU% | CT% | SL% | Top 2 % | Pitches > 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck | 17.0 | 62% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 35% | 98% | 2 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 57.1 | 61% | 5% | 35% | 0% | 0% | 95% | 2 |
| Jose Urena | 23.1 | 61% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 32% | 93% | 2 |
| Jorge Lopez | 39.0 | 60% | 9% | 31% | 0% | 0% | 91% | 2 |
| Lance Lynn | 84.0 | 67% | 1% | 8% | 22% | 2% | 89% | 2 |
| Cristian Javier | 54.1 | 63% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 26% | 89% | 2 |
| Frankie Montas | 53.0 | 63% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 24% | 87% | 3 |
| Spencer Turnbull | 56.2 | 67% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 20% | 87% | 2 |
| J.A. Happ | 49.1 | 67% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 20% | 87% | 3 |
Two Pitches at 85% or More, Less Than 60% Fastball
| Name | IP | FB% | CH% | CU% | CT% | SL% | Top 2 % | Pitches > 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinelson Lamet | 69 | 47% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 53% | 100% | 2 |
| Brad Keller | 54 | 59% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 38% | 97% | 2 |
| Rich Hill | 38 | 47% | 0% | 49% | 4% | 0% | 96% | 2 |
| Jakob Junis | 25 | 49% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 47% | 96% | 2 |
| Brady Singer | 64 | 58% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 37% | 95% | 2 |
| Elieser Hernandez | 25 | 59% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 35% | 94% | 2 |
| Kevin Gausman | 59 | 51% | 42% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 93% | 2 |
| Garrett Richards | 51 | 55% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 38% | 93% | 2 |
| Patrick Corbin | 65 | 52% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 40% | 92% | 2 |
| Framber Valdez | 70 | 58% | 8% | 34% | 0% | 0% | 92% | 2 |
| Huascar Ynoa | 21 | 44% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 47% | 91% | 2 |
| Jaime Barria | 32 | 43% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 46% | 89% | 2 |
| Chris Paddack | 59 | 58% | 31% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 89% | 2 |
| Charlie Morton | 38 | 56% | 2% | 33% | 0% | 9% | 89% | 2 |
| Michael Pineda | 26 | 50% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 38% | 89% | 2 |
| Kyle Cody | 22 | 50% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 37% | 88% | 3 |
| Nate Pearson | 18 | 51% | 6% | 6% | 0% | 36% | 87% | 2 |
| Johan Oviedo | 24 | 56% | 4% | 10% | 0% | 30% | 86% | 2 |
65% to 70% are 2 pitches
| Touki Toussaint | 24 | 41% | 20% | 29% | 0% | 10% | 70% | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Sandoval | 36 | 45% | 23% | 7% | 0% | 25% | 70% | 3 |
| Marco Gonzales | 69 | 45% | 14% | 16% | 24% | 0% | 70% | 4 |
| Merrill Kelly 켈리 | 31 | 47% | 12% | 22% | 19% | 0% | 69% | 4 |
| Chris Mazza | 30 | 39% | 3% | 0% | 30% | 28% | 69% | 3 |
| Kenta Maeda | 66 | 26% | 29% | 3% | 2% | 40% | 69% | 3 |
| Zack Greinke | 67 | 42% | 26% | 15% | 0% | 16% | 69% | 4 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 48 | 31% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 37% | 69% | 3 |
| Cody Ponce | 17 | 44% | 8% | 24% | 25% | 0% | 68% | 3 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 53 | 33% | 36% | 6% | 25% | 1% | 68% | 3 |
| Tanner Roark | 47 | 53% | 13% | 15% | 4% | 15% | 68% | 4 |
| Corbin Burnes | 59 | 39% | 11% | 8% | 29% | 13% | 68% | 3 |
| Dylan Bundy | 65 | 42% | 21% | 11% | 0% | 26% | 68% | 3 |
| Ross Stripling | 49 | 44% | 17% | 24% | 0% | 15% | 68% | 4 |
| Brett Anderson | 47 | 45% | 23% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 68% | 2 |
| Trevor Bauer | 73 | 48% | 0% | 16% | 20% | 17% | 67% | 4 |
| Brandon Bielak | 32 | 49% | 17% | 8% | 14% | 10% | 67% | 3 |
| Ryan Castellani | 43 | 49% | 16% | 17% | 0% | 17% | 67% | 4 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 68 | 39% | 27% | 12% | 0% | 21% | 66% | 3 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 55 | 23% | 30% | 0% | 36% | 11% | 66% | 3 |
| Zach Plesac | 55 | 38% | 25% | 9% | 0% | 28% | 65% | 3 |
| Martin Perez | 62 | 33% | 26% | 9% | 32% | 0% | 65% | 3 |
<65% are Two Pitches
| Name | IP | FB% | CH% | CU% | CT% | SL% | Top 2 % | Pitches > 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Keuchel | 63.1 | 35% | 28% | 0% | 30% | 7% | 65% | 3 |
| Max Scherzer | 67.1 | 46% | 16% | 9% | 10% | 19% | 65% | 3 |
| Trevor Cahill | 25 | 36% | 29% | 23% | 0% | 12% | 65% | 4 |
| Chase Anderson | 33.2 | 40% | 23% | 16% | 20% | 0% | 64% | 4 |
| Shane Bieber | 77.1 | 37% | 8% | 26% | 16% | 12% | 64% | 3 |
| Joe Musgrove | 39.2 | 39% | 11% | 20% | 6% | 24% | 63% | 3 |
| Griffin Canning | 56.1 | 40% | 16% | 23% | 0% | 21% | 63% | 4 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 67 | 35% | 28% | 13% | 24% | 0% | 63% | 4 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 16.2 | 37% | 20% | 0% | 17% | 26% | 62% | 4 |
| Wade LeBlanc | 22.1 | 25% | 34% | 13% | 28% | 0% | 62% | 4 |
| Zac Gallen | 72 | 39% | 19% | 20% | 0% | 22% | 61% | 4 |
| Aaron Civale | 74 | 31% | 9% | 21% | 29% | 10% | 60% | 3 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 48.1 | 38% | 14% | 17% | 22% | 9% | 59% | 4 |
| Kyle Freeland | 70.2 | 33% | 24% | 0% | 24% | 19% | 57% | 4 |
| Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 | 45.1 | 36% | 19% | 9% | 19% | 17% | 55% | 4 |
Pull Hitters (link)
These are left-handed batters who pull the ball more than 45% of the time and projections don’t take the production drop from being shifted into account.
Left-Handed Pull Hitters
| Name | PA | Pull% |
|---|---|---|
| Kole Calhoun | 228 | 59.0% |
| D.J. Stewart | 112 | 55.8% |
| Matt Carpenter | 169 | 55.4% |
| Jace Peterson | 61 | 53.8% |
| Brett Phillips | 59 | 52.8% |
| Stephen Vogt | 81 | 52.7% |
| Brandon Crawford | 193 | 52.0% |
| Jay Bruce | 103 | 51.4% |
| Kyle Tucker | 228 | 50.6% |
| Ji-Man Choi | 145 | 50.6% |
| Andres Gimenez | 132 | 50.5% |
| J.T. Riddle | 69 | 50.0% |
| Brian Goodwin | 164 | 50.0% |
| Jason Heyward | 181 | 50.0% |
| Kyle Schwarber | 224 | 49.6% |
| Sam Hilliard | 114 | 49.2% |
| Mike Ford | 84 | 49.2% |
| Joey Gallo | 226 | 49.1% |
| Chance Sisco | 121 | 49.1% |
| Dwight Smith Jr. | 72 | 48.9% |
| Anthony Rizzo | 243 | 47.9% |
| Matt Olson | 245 | 47.4% |
| Rougned Odor | 148 | 47.3% |
| Cavan Biggio | 265 | 47.2% |
| Joc Pederson | 138 | 47.1% |
| Jarrod Dyson | 66 | 47.1% |
| Ender Inciarte | 131 | 46.8% |
| Josh VanMeter | 79 | 46.8% |
| Michael Perez | 93 | 46.6% |
| Tommy La Stella | 228 | 46.5% |
| Ronald Guzman | 86 | 46.3% |
| Jesse Winker | 183 | 46.2% |
| Joey Votto | 223 | 46.2% |
| Edwin Rios | 83 | 45.8% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 175 | 45.6% |
| Cody Bellinger | 243 | 45.6% |
| Max Muncy | 248 | 45.5% |
| Jason Kipnis | 135 | 45.3% |
| Brandon Lowe | 224 | 45.3% |
Hitters Running Faster (link)
Batters who see a bump in their sprint speed outperform their projections and those who have a large drop underperform them.
Hitters Who Gained Sprint Speed
| Name | 2019 Sprint Speed | 2020 Sprint Speed | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 23.5 | 24.6 | 1.1 |
| J.D. Davis | 26.3 | 27.2 | 0.9 |
| Joe Panik | 25.5 | 26.4 | 0.9 |
| Daniel Murphy | 25.7 | 26.5 | 0.8 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 24.8 | 25.6 | 0.8 |
| Andrew Velazquez | 27.5 | 28.3 | 0.8 |
| Beau Taylor | 25.9 | 26.7 | 0.8 |
| Edwin Rios | 25.7 | 26.5 | 0.8 |
| Brett Phillips | 28.0 | 28.8 | 0.8 |
| Jean Segura | 27.5 | 28.3 | 0.8 |
| Josh Naylor | 26.1 | 26.9 | 0.8 |
| Kyle Lewis | 27.1 | 27.9 | 0.8 |
| Jesse Winker | 25.6 | 26.4 | 0.8 |
| Donovan Solano | 25.9 | 26.6 | 0.7 |
| Jason Kipnis | 26.8 | 27.5 | 0.7 |
| Jon Jay | 24.8 | 25.5 | 0.7 |
| Bradley Zimmer | 27.6 | 28.3 | 0.7 |
| Jared Walsh | 25.9 | 26.5 | 0.6 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 28.2 | 28.8 | 0.6 |
| Josh Phegley | 25.8 | 26.4 | 0.6 |
| Roberto Perez | 24.3 | 24.9 | 0.6 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 27.3 | 27.9 | 0.6 |
| Gregory Polanco | 26.8 | 27.4 | 0.6 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 24.8 | 25.3 | 0.5 |
| Matt Kemp | 25.4 | 25.9 | 0.5 |
Hitters Who Lost Sprint Speed
| Name | 2019 Sprint Speed | 2020 Sprint Speed | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Howie Kendrick | 25.3 | 24.8 | -0.5 |
| Christian Arroyo | 27.7 | 27.2 | -0.5 |
| Josh Bell | 26.7 | 26.2 | -0.5 |
| Sean Murphy | 26.0 | 25.5 | -0.5 |
| Jorge Soler | 27.0 | 26.5 | -0.5 |
| Josh Reddick | 26.7 | 26.2 | -0.5 |
| Ryan McMahon | 26.4 | 25.9 | -0.5 |
| Braden Bishop | 29.6 | 29.1 | -0.5 |
| Brandon Dixon | 28.5 | 28.0 | -0.5 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 27.1 | 26.6 | -0.5 |
| Joey Wendle | 28.6 | 28.1 | -0.5 |
| Dwight Smith Jr. | 26.1 | 25.6 | -0.5 |
| Adalberto Mondesi | 29.9 | 29.4 | -0.5 |
| Erik Kratz | 24.3 | 23.8 | -0.5 |
| Albert Pujols | 22.5 | 22.0 | -0.5 |
| Eric Sogard | 26.2 | 25.7 | -0.5 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 27.4 | 26.9 | -0.5 |
| Kevin Plawecki | 26.0 | 25.5 | -0.5 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 27.3 | 26.8 | -0.5 |
| Tommy Pham | 28.7 | 28.2 | -0.5 |
| Renato Nunez | 27.1 | 26.6 | -0.5 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 25.3 | 24.8 | -0.5 |
| Brock Holt | 26.1 | 25.6 | -0.5 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 28.7 | 28.2 | -0.5 |
| Corey Dickerson | 27.6 | 27.1 | -0.5 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 28.5 | 28.0 | -0.5 |
| Matt Beaty | 27.4 | 26.9 | -0.5 |
| Amed Rosario | 29.2 | 28.7 | -0.5 |
| D.J. Stewart | 27.0 | 26.5 | -0.5 |
| Garrett Hampson | 30.1 | 29.6 | -0.5 |
| Tommy Edman | 29.4 | 28.9 | -0.5 |
| Cody Bellinger | 28.8 | 28.3 | -0.5 |
| J.T. Riddle | 27.4 | 26.8 | -0.6 |
| Yasmani Grandal | 24.2 | 23.6 | -0.6 |
| Joey Gallo | 27.7 | 27.1 | -0.6 |
| Austin Slater | 28.4 | 27.8 | -0.6 |
| Christian Yelich | 28.7 | 28.1 | -0.6 |
| Mallex Smith | 29.4 | 28.8 | -0.6 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 25.4 | 24.8 | -0.6 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria | 27.2 | 26.6 | -0.6 |
| Kris Bryant | 28.2 | 27.6 | -0.6 |
| Didi Gregorius | 27.7 | 27.1 | -0.6 |
| Christin Stewart | 26.9 | 26.3 | -0.6 |
| Brian Anderson | 27.0 | 26.4 | -0.6 |
| Matt Chapman | 28.1 | 27.5 | -0.6 |
| Cavan Biggio | 28.3 | 27.7 | -0.6 |
| Carlos Correa | 27.6 | 27.0 | -0.6 |
| Yandy Diaz | 26.5 | 25.9 | -0.6 |
| Ryan Braun | 26.6 | 26.0 | -0.6 |
| Rafael Devers | 27.1 | 26.5 | -0.6 |
| Jose Ramirez | 27.8 | 27.2 | -0.6 |
| Kyle Farmer | 27.3 | 26.7 | -0.6 |
| Starling Marte | 29.0 | 28.4 | -0.6 |
| Jon Berti | 29.8 | 29.2 | -0.6 |
| Elias Diaz | 26.1 | 25.5 | -0.6 |
| Gary Sanchez | 25.5 | 24.9 | -0.6 |
| Justin Smoak | 23.5 | 22.9 | -0.6 |
| Rio Ruiz | 25.8 | 25.2 | -0.6 |
| Yan Gomes | 26.6 | 26.0 | -0.6 |
| Ramon Laureano | 28.5 | 27.9 | -0.6 |
| Alex Avila | 24.6 | 24.0 | -0.6 |
| Austin Romine | 25.8 | 25.1 | -0.7 |
| Michael Conforto | 27.5 | 26.8 | -0.7 |
| Brandon Drury | 26.8 | 26.1 | -0.7 |
| Max Muncy | 27.7 | 27.0 | -0.7 |
| Ender Inciarte | 26.8 | 26.1 | -0.7 |
| Ryan O’Hearn | 27.2 | 26.5 | -0.7 |
| Ryan McBroom | 27.2 | 26.5 | -0.7 |
| Martin Maldonado | 24.2 | 23.5 | -0.7 |
| Nomar Mazara | 26.5 | 25.8 | -0.7 |
| Ty France | 25.9 | 25.2 | -0.7 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 26.7 | 26.0 | -0.7 |
| Adam Duvall | 28.7 | 28.0 | -0.7 |
| Christian Vazquez | 25.7 | 25.0 | -0.7 |
| Austin Barnes | 27.2 | 26.5 | -0.7 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 28.8 | 28.1 | -0.7 |
| Bo Bichette | 28.4 | 27.7 | -0.7 |
| Billy Hamilton | 29.5 | 28.8 | -0.7 |
| Bubba Starling | 28.7 | 28.0 | -0.7 |
| Dylan Moore | 28.4 | 27.7 | -0.7 |
| Ian Happ | 27.8 | 27.1 | -0.7 |
| Ronald Torreyes | 27.2 | 26.5 | -0.7 |
| Austin Nola | 27.1 | 26.4 | -0.7 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 27.6 | 26.9 | -0.7 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 26.6 | 25.9 | -0.7 |
| Travis Shaw | 25.6 | 24.9 | -0.7 |
| Javier Baez | 28.6 | 27.9 | -0.7 |
| Austin Hays | 28.6 | 27.9 | -0.7 |
| Neil Walker | 25.6 | 24.9 | -0.7 |
| Alex Bregman | 27.4 | 26.6 | -0.8 |
| Maikel Franco | 25.4 | 24.6 | -0.8 |
| Mike Tauchman | 27.9 | 27.1 | -0.8 |
| Starlin Castro | 26.9 | 26.1 | -0.8 |
| Brett Gardner | 28.9 | 28.1 | -0.8 |
| Ryon Healy | 25.9 | 25.1 | -0.8 |
| J.P. Crawford | 27.4 | 26.6 | -0.8 |
| Jonathan Villar | 27.9 | 27.1 | -0.8 |
| Matt Adams | 25.9 | 25.1 | -0.8 |
| Luke Voit | 25.8 | 25.0 | -0.8 |
| Avisail Garcia | 28.8 | 28.0 | -0.8 |
| Josh Donaldson | 25.8 | 25.0 | -0.8 |
| Eric Thames 테임즈 | 26.7 | 25.9 | -0.8 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 29.1 | 28.3 | -0.8 |
| Austin Riley | 27.8 | 27.0 | -0.8 |
| Josh Rojas | 28.1 | 27.3 | -0.8 |
| Manuel Margot | 29.0 | 28.2 | -0.8 |
| Jack Mayfield | 26.6 | 25.8 | -0.8 |
| Tyler Wade | 29.1 | 28.3 | -0.8 |
| Andrew Knizner | 26.2 | 25.4 | -0.8 |
| Mike Moustakas | 25.7 | 24.9 | -0.8 |
| Jose Trevino | 24.8 | 24.0 | -0.8 |
| J.D. Martinez | 26.7 | 25.9 | -0.8 |
| Hunter Pence | 28.6 | 27.8 | -0.8 |
| Magneuris Sierra | 29.8 | 29.0 | -0.8 |
| Brandon Lowe | 27.7 | 26.9 | -0.8 |
| Shed Long | 27.6 | 26.8 | -0.8 |
| Aristides Aquino | 28.7 | 27.9 | -0.8 |
| Anthony Santander | 27.5 | 26.7 | -0.8 |
| Dawel Lugo | 27.5 | 26.7 | -0.8 |
| Nicky Lopez | 28.5 | 27.7 | -0.8 |
| Mitch Garver | 26.3 | 25.5 | -0.8 |
| Willie Calhoun | 26.4 | 25.5 | -0.9 |
| Mitch Moreland | 25.0 | 24.1 | -0.9 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 26.9 | 26.0 | -0.9 |
| Danny Santana | 27.7 | 26.8 | -0.9 |
| Tomas Nido | 25.7 | 24.8 | -0.9 |
| Danny Mendick | 26.9 | 26.0 | -0.9 |
| Delino DeShields | 29.5 | 28.6 | -0.9 |
| Aledmys Diaz | 28.1 | 27.2 | -0.9 |
| Jordan Luplow | 28.3 | 27.4 | -0.9 |
| Meibrys Viloria | 24.6 | 23.7 | -0.9 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 29.1 | 28.2 | -0.9 |
| Chris Davis | 24.8 | 23.9 | -0.9 |
| Austin Hedges | 24.6 | 23.7 | -0.9 |
| Colin Moran | 25.3 | 24.3 | -1.0 |
| Justin Turner | 26.1 | 25.1 | -1.0 |
| Mike Brosseau | 28.3 | 27.3 | -1.0 |
| Adam Haseley | 27.8 | 26.8 | -1.0 |
| Yu-Cheng Chang | 28.4 | 27.4 | -1.0 |
| Lewis Brinson | 29.5 | 28.5 | -1.0 |
| Kevin Newman | 28.5 | 27.5 | -1.0 |
| Jacob Stallings | 24.5 | 23.5 | -1.0 |
| Rougned Odor | 28.0 | 27.0 | -1.0 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 26.3 | 25.3 | -1.0 |
| Victor Reyes | 28.9 | 27.9 | -1.0 |
| Jake Marisnick | 29.2 | 28.2 | -1.0 |
| Niko Goodrum | 29.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| Isan Diaz | 26.8 | 25.8 | -1.0 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 25.3 | 24.3 | -1.0 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 25.2 | 24.2 | -1.0 |
| Ryan Lavarnway | 24.6 | 23.6 | -1.0 |
| Nolan Arenado | 25.9 | 24.8 | -1.1 |
| Dexter Fowler | 27.7 | 26.6 | -1.1 |
| Dustin Garneau | 26.7 | 25.6 | -1.1 |
| Curt Casali | 25.2 | 24.1 | -1.1 |
| Kurt Suzuki | 25.2 | 24.1 | -1.1 |
| Yolmer Sanchez | 27.7 | 26.6 | -1.1 |
| John Ryan Murphy | 26.7 | 25.6 | -1.1 |
| Cameron Maybin | 28.7 | 27.6 | -1.1 |
| Tyler Flowers | 25.2 | 24.1 | -1.1 |
| Todd Frazier | 25.3 | 24.2 | -1.1 |
| Derek Fisher | 29.0 | 27.9 | -1.1 |
| Gavin Lux | 28.8 | 27.7 | -1.1 |
| Kyle Seager | 26.5 | 25.4 | -1.1 |
| Paul DeJong | 27.6 | 26.5 | -1.1 |
| Kolten Wong | 27.6 | 26.5 | -1.1 |
| Juan Soto | 27.3 | 26.1 | -1.2 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 27.5 | 26.3 | -1.2 |
| Mike Zunino | 26.3 | 25.1 | -1.2 |
| Jake Noll | 28.1 | 26.9 | -1.2 |
| C.J. Cron | 26.1 | 24.9 | -1.2 |
| JaCoby Jones | 28.3 | 27.0 | -1.3 |
| Ozzie Albies | 28.6 | 27.3 | -1.3 |
| Victor Robles | 29.3 | 28.0 | -1.3 |
| Erik Gonzalez | 28.6 | 27.3 | -1.3 |
| David Dahl | 28.1 | 26.8 | -1.3 |
| Lane Thomas | 29.6 | 28.3 | -1.3 |
| Franchy Cordero | 28.8 | 27.5 | -1.3 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | 28.1 | 26.8 | -1.3 |
| Luis Guillorme | 26.7 | 25.4 | -1.3 |
| Oscar Mercado | 29.5 | 28.1 | -1.4 |
| Aaron Judge | 28.2 | 26.8 | -1.4 |
| Garrett Cooper | 27.2 | 25.8 | -1.4 |
| Mason Williams | 26.8 | 25.4 | -1.4 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 27.1 | 25.7 | -1.4 |
| Reese McGuire | 26.3 | 24.9 | -1.4 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 28.8 | 27.4 | -1.4 |
| Ben Gamel | 28.2 | 26.7 | -1.5 |
| Myles Straw | 30.1 | 28.6 | -1.5 |
| Giovanny Urshela | 26.3 | 24.8 | -1.5 |
| Franklin Barreto | 28.8 | 27.3 | -1.5 |
| Jarrod Dyson | 28.4 | 26.9 | -1.5 |
| Jace Peterson | 28.0 | 26.5 | -1.5 |
| Francisco Mejia | 27.2 | 25.7 | -1.5 |
| Daniel Robertson | 27.0 | 25.5 | -1.5 |
| Kevan Smith | 26.2 | 24.7 | -1.5 |
| Jay Bruce | 26.7 | 25.1 | -1.6 |
| Albert Almora Jr. | 28.4 | 26.8 | -1.6 |
| Abraham Toro | 28.8 | 27.2 | -1.6 |
| Miguel Andujar | 28.1 | 26.5 | -1.6 |
| Lorenzo Cain | 27.8 | 26.1 | -1.7 |
| Austin Meadows | 28.1 | 26.3 | -1.8 |
| Robinson Chirinos | 25.1 | 23.3 | -1.8 |
| Rangel Ravelo | 26.5 | 24.6 | -1.9 |
| Harold Castro | 27.2 | 25.2 | -2.0 |
| Travis Demeritte | 28.6 | 26.6 | -2.0 |
| Thairo Estrada | 28.0 | 25.7 | -2.3 |
| Logan Morrison | 25.5 | 22.3 | -3.2 |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.