Projection Busting Research Updated
Over the years, I’ve been working on how to fine-tune my player evaluation process. The following are six datasets that I’ve found useful I’ll not go into detail on any of them since I provide a link to the original article. The following is basically a referenceable data dump.
Note: I know there is a lot of content and when questions arise, make sure the area in question is obvious in the comment. Also, I’ll only answer questions here and not in the original articles.
Voit/Muncy All-Stars (link)
These are older AAA hitters who have shown signs of a breakout.
Voit/Muncy All-Stars
| Name | Position | Age | Team | PA | BB% | K% | GB% | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Engel | OF | 27 | White Sox | 277 | 8% | 22% | 43% | .194 |
| Addison Russell | SS | 25 | Cubs | 119 | 12% | 21% | 38% | .281 |
| Andy Ibanez | 2B/3B | 26 | Rangers | 529 | 10% | 17% | 37% | .197 |
| Austin Dean | OF | 25 | Marlins | 282 | 10% | 18% | 39% | .298 |
| Billy McKinney | OF | 24 | Blue Jays | 154 | 14% | 16% | 35% | .217 |
| Breyvic Valera | 2B | 27 | Yankees | 348 | 10% | 10% | 34% | .200 |
| Bryan Reynolds | OF | 24 | Pirates | 57 | 12% | 19% | 38% | .367 |
| Cavan Biggio | 2B | 24 | Blue Jays | 174 | 20% | 16% | 30% | .203 |
| Chance Sisco | C | 24 | Orioles | 196 | 10% | 22% | 42% | .238 |
| Chas McCormick | OF | 24 | Astros | 225 | 12% | 15% | 37% | .204 |
| Cheslor Cuthbert | 3B | 26 | Royals | 219 | 8% | 21% | 39% | .218 |
| Connor Joe | 1B/3B | 26 | Dodgers | 446 | 16% | 18% | 42% | .203 |
| Cristhian Adames | SS | 27 | Giants | 165 | 12% | 19% | 42% | .234 |
| Daniel Pinero | 3B/SS | 25 | Tigers | 110 | 16% | 23% | 32% | .220 |
| DJ Stewart | OF | 25 | Orioles | 277 | 14% | 18% | 41% | .257 |
| Donnie Dewees | OF | 25 | Cubs | 419 | 10% | 15% | 41% | .207 |
| Esteban Quiroz | 2B/SS | 27 | Padres | 366 | 14% | 22% | 38% | .268 |
| Harrison Bader | OF | 25 | Cardinals | 75 | 11% | 21% | 26% | .381 |
| Jason Vosler | 3B | 25 | Padres | 426 | 11% | 24% | 37% | .232 |
| Jaylin Davis | OF | 24 | Giants | 117 | 12% | 24% | 40% | .353 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 3B | 25 | Tigers | 178 | 12% | 20% | 42% | .268 |
| Johan Camargo | SS | 25 | Braves | 64 | 8% | 19% | 35% | .207 |
| Jonah Heim | C | 24 | Athletics | 119 | 9% | 15% | 34% | .198 |
| Jose Rojas | 3B | 26 | Angels | 578 | 10% | 23% | 31% | .283 |
| Josh VanMeter | 2B/3B | 24 | Reds | 211 | 11% | 18% | 38% | .320 |
| Kevin Cron | 1B | 26 | Diamondbacks | 377 | 16% | 20% | 26% | .446 |
| Mark Payton | OF | 27 | Athletics | 447 | 10% | 17% | 35% | .319 |
| Matt Thaiss | 1B | 24 | Angels | 372 | 16% | 17% | 42% | .203 |
| Michael Brosseau | 3B | 25 | Rays | 315 | 11% | 18% | 40% | .263 |
| Michael Perez | C | 26 | Rays | 216 | 13% | 24% | 36% | .250 |
| Mike Ford | 1B | 26 | Yankees | 349 | 13% | 16% | 40% | .303 |
| Nick Dini | C | 25 | Royals | 213 | 10% | 14% | 33% | .269 |
| Nick Tanielu | 2B/3B | 26 | Astros | 503 | 9% | 17% | 36% | .225 |
| Oscar Mercado | SS/OF | 24 | Indians | 140 | 11% | 23% | 40% | .202 |
| P.J. Higgins | C | 26 | Cubs | 140 | 12% | 21% | 40% | .231 |
| Phillip Ervin | OF | 26 | Reds | 172 | 11% | 20% | 31% | .193 |
| Roberto Pena | C | 27 | Angels | 155 | 11% | 19% | 32% | .196 |
| Ronald Guzman | 1B | 24 | Rangers | 135 | 13% | 23% | 39% | .197 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 1B | 24 | Blue Jays | 109 | 13% | 23% | 34% | .323 |
| Ryan McBroom | 1B | 27 | Yankees | 482 | 12% | 21% | 38% | .259 |
| Ryan O’Hearn | 1B | 25 | Royals | 149 | 11% | 21% | 39% | .302 |
| Taylor Jones | 1B | 25 | Astros | 531 | 13% | 21% | 37% | .210 |
| Taylor Ward | C/3B | 25 | Angels | 512 | 16% | 20% | 38% | .278 |
| Ty France | 1B/3B | 24 | Padres | 348 | 9% | 15% | 31% | .372 |
| Will Smith | C | 24 | Dodgers | 270 | 15% | 18% | 28% | .335 |
| Willie Calhoun | 2B/OF | 24 | Rangers | 172 | 19% | 14% | 33% | .232 |
| Yermin Mercedes | C | 26 | White Sox | 220 | 11% | 19% | 28% | .337 |
Hitters and Pitch Types (link)
I found three hitter types whose projections are off because of how they handle certain pitches in the strike zone. Two hitter groups that struggle are those who can’t hit slow fastballs down the middle of the plate and those who can’t recognize a changeup. The one group who shows some positive projection are hitters who don’t miss when they swing at non-fastballs.
Slow Fastball Swinging-Strike Rate
| Name | Slow FB SwStr% |
|---|---|
| Abraham Almonte | 20.0% |
| Aristides Aquino | 20.3% |
| Brett Phillips | 18.4% |
| Brian O’Grady | 38.9% |
| Cedric Mullins II | 15.9% |
| Christian Arroyo | 22.7% |
| Daniel Palka | 20.0% |
| Dustin Peterson | 18.8% |
| Eric Stamets | 18.8% |
| Franklin Barreto | 19.2% |
| Jaylin Davis | 19.1% |
| Josh Fuentes | 42.9% |
| Josh Harrison | 17.8% |
| Keon Broxton | 16.3% |
| Kristopher Negron | 18.4% |
| Kyle Lewis | 21.2% |
| Mac Williamson | 16.2% |
| Matt Kemp | 25.0% |
| Michael Brosseau | 15.6% |
| Pablo Sandoval | 19.6% |
| Richard Urena | 19.2% |
| Robel Garcia | 16.7% |
| Scooter Gennett | 20.8% |
| Scott Heineman | 18.9% |
| Scott Schebler | 22.2% |
Changeup Swinging-Strike Rate
| Name | Change SwStr% |
|---|---|
| A.J. Reed | 33.3% |
| Aaron Altherr | 38.5% |
| Aaron Hicks | 37.0% |
| Aaron Judge | 43.1% |
| Aramis Garcia | 60.0% |
| Aristides Aquino | 30.4% |
| Avisail Garcia | 30.6% |
| Blake Swihart | 31.6% |
| Braden Bishop | 30.0% |
| Brendan Rodgers | 53.9% |
| Brett Phillips | 38.5% |
| Chad Wallach | 60.0% |
| Chris Davis | 31.8% |
| Delino DeShields | 31.0% |
| Eric Stamets | 50.0% |
| Erik Kratz | 50.0% |
| Guillermo Heredia | 46.7% |
| Jace Peterson | 33.3% |
| John Hicks | 36.4% |
| John Ryan Murphy | 66.7% |
| Jonathan Schoop | 29.4% |
| Kevin Cron | 33.3% |
| Kyle Garlick | 42.9% |
| Kyle Tucker | 30.8% |
| Lewis Brinson | 33.3% |
| Matt Kemp | 50.0% |
| Matt Thaiss | 32.6% |
| Max Stassi | 37.5% |
| Michael Hermosillo | 44.4% |
| Miguel Sano | 29.4% |
| Nick Hundley | 50.0% |
| Nick Solak | 31.3% |
| Nick Williams | 30.4% |
| Peter Bourjos | 36.4% |
| Peter O’Brien | 33.3% |
| Rafael Ortega | 37.5% |
| Robel Garcia | 35.7% |
| Scott Heineman | 30.8% |
| Sean Murphy | 41.7% |
| Seth Brown | 33.3% |
| Sheldon Neuse | 35.0% |
| Steve Pearce | 50.0% |
| Taylor Ward | 60.0% |
| Tim Federowicz | 30.8% |
| Welington Castillo | 33.3% |
Non-Fastball Swinging-Strike Rate
Limited Arsenals (link)
Pitchers who have a more diverse arsenal have historically beaten their projections than those pitchers with just one or two pitches. From the article, there are four pitcher groups (Note: four-seam, two-seam, and sinkers are combined into one fastball group).
Two Pitches at 85% or More, Greater Than 60% Fastball
| Name | IP | FB% | CH% | CU% | CT% | SL% | Top 2 % | Pitches > 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Richard | 45.1 | 72% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 97% | 2 |
| Lance Lynn | 208.1 | 71% | 3% | 10% | 16% | 0% | 88% | 2 |
| Jefry Rodriguez | 46.2 | 70% | 7% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 93% | 2 |
| J.A. Happ | 161.1 | 68% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 17% | 86% | 3 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 60.2 | 68% | 3% | 29% | 0% | 0% | 97% | 2 |
| Dario Agrazal | 73.1 | 67% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 19% | 86% | 3 |
| Trevor Williams | 145.2 | 67% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 20% | 87% | 3 |
| Brad Keller | 165.1 | 67% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 31% | 98% | 2 |
| Vince Velasquez | 117.1 | 67% | 1% | 12% | 0% | 20% | 86% | 3 |
| Joey Lucchesi | 163.2 | 65% | 34% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | 2 |
| Steven Brault | 113.1 | 64% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 21% | 85% | 3 |
| Mike Soroka | 174.2 | 63% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 24% | 88% | 3 |
| Jose Urena | 84.2 | 63% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 26% | 89% | 2 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 177 | 62% | 28% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 90% | 2 |
| Jose Quintana | 171 | 62% | 11% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 89% | 2 |
| Dakota Hudson | 174.2 | 62% | 3% | 0% | 26% | 10% | 87% | 2 |
| Chris Paddack | 140.2 | 61% | 28% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 89% | 2 |
Two Pitches at 85% or More, Less Than 60% Fastball
| Name | IP | FB% | CH% | CU% | CT% | SL% | Top 2 % | Pitches > 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Hoffman | 70 | 59% | 11% | 29% | 0% | 1% | 88% | 2 |
| Brad Peacock | 91.2 | 59% | 6% | 7% | 0% | 29% | 87% | 2 |
| Shaun Anderson | 96 | 59% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 30% | 88% | 2 |
| Jack Flaherty | 196.1 | 58% | 3% | 12% | 0% | 28% | 85% | 2 |
| Kevin Gausman | 102.1 | 56% | 42% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 98% | 2 |
| Zach Eflin | 163.1 | 56% | 8% | 5% | 0% | 31% | 86% | 2 |
| Elieser Hernandez | 82.1 | 55% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 89% | 2 |
| Dinelson Lamet | 73 | 55% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 44% | 99% | 2 |
| Matthew Boyd | 185.1 | 54% | 6% | 5% | 0% | 35% | 89% | 2 |
| Caleb Smith | 153.1 | 54% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 32% | 85% | 3 |
| Patrick Corbin | 202 | 54% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 37% | 91% | 2 |
| Jon Gray | 150 | 53% | 3% | 11% | 0% | 33% | 86% | 2 |
| Rich Hill | 58.2 | 53% | 1% | 46% | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2 |
| Jakob Junis | 175.1 | 51% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 44% | 95% | 2 |
| Chris Archer | 119.2 | 50% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 36% | 86% | 2 |
| Charlie Morton | 194.2 | 49% | 3% | 37% | 1% | 9% | 86% | 2 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | 103.1 | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 49% | 93% | 2 |
65% to 70% are 2 pitches
| Name | IP | FB% | CH% | CU% | CT% | SL% | Top 2 % | Pitches > 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 208.2 | 48% | 23% | 14% | 1% | 15% | 70% | 4 |
| Marcus Stroman | 184.1 | 39% | 4% | 1% | 25% | 31% | 70% | 3 |
| Mike Minor | 208.1 | 45% | 25% | 11% | 0% | 19% | 69% | 3 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | 99 | 49% | 21% | 17% | 0% | 14% | 69% | 4 |
| Mike Fiers | 184.2 | 52% | 12% | 18% | 16% | 3% | 69% | 4 |
| Wade Miley | 167.1 | 22% | 21% | 9% | 47% | 1% | 69% | 3 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 181.1 | 46% | 8% | 2% | 23% | 20% | 69% | 3 |
| Cole Hamels | 141.2 | 48% | 21% | 12% | 19% | 0% | 69% | 4 |
| Kenta Maeda | 153.2 | 37% | 24% | 7% | 0% | 32% | 69% | 3 |
| Zac Gallen | 80 | 50% | 16% | 19% | 0% | 15% | 69% | 4 |
| Max Scherzer | 172.1 | 48% | 14% | 9% | 8% | 20% | 69% | 3 |
| Brett Anderson | 176 | 50% | 14% | 6% | 12% | 19% | 68% | 4 |
| Ross Detwiler | 69.2 | 52% | 16% | 15% | 17% | 1% | 68% | 4 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 182.2 | 41% | 27% | 12% | 19% | 0% | 68% | 4 |
| Jordan Yamamoto | 78.2 | 50% | 3% | 14% | 18% | 15% | 68% | 4 |
| Merrill Kelly | 183.1 | 46% | 13% | 21% | 19% | 0% | 68% | 4 |
| Aaron Civale | 57.2 | 39% | 7% | 11% | 29% | 15% | 67% | 3 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 182 | 31% | 28% | 3% | 2% | 36% | 67% | 3 |
| Daniel Mengden | 59.2 | 53% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 67% | 3 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 67.2 | 43% | 14% | 18% | 22% | 3% | 66% | 4 |
| Edwin Jackson | 67.2 | 39% | 7% | 3% | 27% | 25% | 65% | 3 |
<65% are Two Pitches
| Name | IP | FB% | CH% | CU% | CT% | SL% | Top 2 % | Pitches > 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Gonzales | 203 | 40% | 24% | 16% | 20% | 0% | 64% | 4 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 166 | 35% | 28% | 6% | 28% | 3% | 63% | 3 |
| Clay Buchholz | 59 | 35% | 20% | 17% | 28% | 0% | 63% | 4 |
| Trent Thornton | 154.1 | 47% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 63% | 4 |
| Trevor Bauer | 213 | 42% | 8% | 20% | 16% | 14% | 62% | 4 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 141.2 | 24% | 26% | 0% | 37% | 13% | 61% | 4 |
| Alex Young | 83.1 | 36% | 20% | 20% | 23% | 0% | 59% | 4 |
| Mike Leake | 197 | 32% | 21% | 4% | 26% | 16% | 58% | 4 |
| CC Sabathia | 107.1 | 15% | 12% | 0% | 43% | 30% | 58% | 4 |
Pull Hitters (link)
These are left-handed batters who pull the ball more than 45% of time and projections seem to not take the production drop from being shifted into account.
High Pull Left-Handed Hitters
| Name | PA | Pull% |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Walsh | 87 | 56.8% |
| Rafael Ortega | 96 | 54.5% |
| Sam Hilliard | 87 | 53.7% |
| Max Kepler | 596 | 53.4% |
| Joey Gallo | 297 | 52.7% |
| D.J. Stewart | 142 | 52.5% |
| Willie Calhoun | 337 | 51.9% |
| Matt Olson | 547 | 51.7% |
| Matt Thaiss | 164 | 51.6% |
| Matt Adams | 333 | 51.5% |
| Kole Calhoun | 632 | 50.5% |
| J.T. Riddle | 139 | 50.0% |
| Billy McKinney | 276 | 49.5% |
| Cavan Biggio | 430 | 49.4% |
| Tony Kemp | 279 | 49.3% |
| Brian McCann | 316 | 49.1% |
| Joc Pederson | 514 | 49.0% |
| Eddie Rosario | 590 | 48.8% |
| Cory Spangenberg | 102 | 48.3% |
| Derek Dietrich | 306 | 48.3% |
| Cody Bellinger | 660 | 47.9% |
| Rougned Odor | 581 | 47.4% |
| Mitch Moreland | 335 | 47.3% |
| Gregory Polanco | 167 | 47.1% |
| Alex Avila | 201 | 46.9% |
| Kyle Tucker | 72 | 46.8% |
| Yonder Alonso | 335 | 46.4% |
| Matt Carpenter | 492 | 46.4% |
| Jeff McNeil | 567 | 46.3% |
| Scott Schebler | 95 | 46.3% |
| Brett Gardner | 550 | 46.2% |
| Curtis Granderson | 363 | 46.2% |
| Odubel Herrera | 139 | 45.7% |
| Austin Allen | 71 | 45.5% |
| Matt Beaty | 268 | 45.4% |
| Chance Sisco | 198 | 45.3% |
| Matt Joyce | 238 | 45.2% |
| Austin Meadows | 591 | 45.1% |
| Josh VanMeter | 260 | 45.1% |
Highly-Touted Hitting Prospects (link)
These are the highly touted hitters from our top-100 prospect ranking and are being drafted in NFBC leagues (Note: Both rankings may be off as the lists are in constant flux right now). I found basic projections underestimate the top prospects.
Highly Touted Hitting Prospects
| Name | Team | Position | Future Value | Ranke | Min ADP | Avg ADP | Max ADP | Projected OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Robert | CHW | CF | 55 | 18 | 78 | 109 | 139 | .802 |
| Gavin Lux | LAD | 2B | 60 | 9 | 121 | 158 | 206 | .761 |
| Jo Adell | LAA | RF | 65 | 3 | 134 | 190 | 240 | .700 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | C | 55 | 29 | 200 | 239 | 281 | .746 |
| Nick Madrigal | CHW | 2B | 55 | 25 | 212 | 277 | 371 | .734 |
| Carter Kieboom | WSN | SS | 60 | 12 | 212 | 289 | 330 | .753 |
| Dylan Carlson | STL | LF | 50 | 40 | 220 | 293 | 373 | .744 |
| Nico Hoerner | CHC | 2B | 50 | 49 | 244 | 348 | 428 | .733 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | LF | 50 | 99 | 315 | 393 | 456 | .768 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | SS | 55 | 16 | 333 | 404 | 471 | .778 |
| Evan White | SEA | 1B | 50 | 77 | 253 | 438 | 672 | .734 |
| Joey Bart | SFG | C | 55 | 17 | 343 | 456 | 583 | .670 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | 3B | 50 | 41 | 345 | 468 | 591 | .776 |
| Wander Franco | TBR | SS | 70 | 1 | 307 | 486 | 688 | .656 |
| Alex Kirilloff | MIN | RF | 50 | 48 | 385 | 488 | 562 | .751 |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | PIT | 3B | 60 | 14 | 381 | 500 | 584 | .695 |
| Royce Lewis | MIN | SS | 65 | 2 | 382 | 541 | 689 | .654 |
| Cristian Pache | ATL | CF | 60 | 13 | 360 | 545 | 604 | .689 |
| Daulton Varsho | ARI | C | 50 | 62 | 415 | 569 | 612 | .764 |
| Monte Harrison | MIA | CF | 50 | 98 | 364 | 583 | 702 | .657 |
| Drew Waters | ATL | CF | 55 | 21 | 400 | 601 | 695 | .697 |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | C | 60 | 6 | 455 | 618 | 688 | .516 |
| Jarred Kelenic | SEA | CF | 55 | 32 | 546 | 647 | 730 | .720 |
| Vidal Brujan | TBR | 2B | 55 | 15 | 281 | 651 | 737 | .656 |
| Jesus Sanchez | MIA | RF | 50 | 47 | 541 | 667 | 731 | .666 |
| Keibert Ruiz | LAD | C | 60 | 11 | 546 | 671 | 724 | .669 |
| Nolan Jones | CLE | 3B | 50 | 46 | 534 | 673 | 734 | .736 |
| Tyler Stephenson | CIN | C | 50 | 53 | 588 | 702 | 731 | .677 |
| Taylor Trammell | SDP | LF | 55 | 27 | 552 | 716 | 746 | .646 |
| Jazz Chisholm | MIA | SS | 55 | 28 | 505 | 722 | 748 | .639 |
| Andres Gimenez | NYM | SS | 50 | 76 | 556 | 726 | 747 | .615 |
| Yusniel Diaz | BAL | RF | 50 | 88 | 637 | 727 | 747 | .727 |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | RF | 50 | 44 | 576 | 731 | 735 | .628 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | 1B | 50 | 39 | 592 | 732 | 686 | .609 |
| Isaac Paredes | DET | 3B | 50 | 81 | 640 | 737 | 749 | .733 |
| Brandon Marsh | LAA | CF | 50 | 74 | 693 | 744 | 746 | .672 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | 3B | 50 | 51 | 662 | 745 | 747 | .682 |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | RF | 50 | 54 | 650 | 747 | 731 | .737 |
| Nolan Gorman | STL | 3B | 55 | 33 | 684 | 748 | 734 | .588 |
| Heliot Ramos | SFG | RF | 50 | 52 | 719 | 749 | 742 | .677 |
Hitters Running Faster (link)
Batters who see a bump in their sprint speed outperform their projections and those who have a large drop underperform them.
Hitters Who Gained Spring Speed
| Name | 2018 Sprint Speed | 2019 Spring Speed | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Gonzalez | 27.4 | 28.6 | 1.2 |
| Jay Bruce | 25.5 | 26.7 | 1.2 |
| Christian Arroyo | 26.6 | 27.7 | 1.1 |
| Mark Reynolds | 24.4 | 25.3 | 0.9 |
| Corey Seager | 26.0 | 26.9 | 0.9 |
| Alex Avila | 23.8 | 24.6 | 0.8 |
| Bryce Harper | 27.5 | 28.3 | 0.8 |
| Adam Eaton | 27.5 | 28.3 | 0.8 |
| Jesus Sucre | 22.9 | 23.6 | 0.7 |
| Kyle Farmer | 26.6 | 27.3 | 0.7 |
| Curt Casali | 24.5 | 25.2 | 0.7 |
| Yangervis Solarte | 24.7 | 25.4 | 0.7 |
| George Springer | 27.7 | 28.4 | 0.7 |
| Adam Duvall | 28.0 | 28.7 | 0.7 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 27.5 | 28.1 | 0.6 |
| Kyle Seager | 25.9 | 26.5 | 0.6 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 28.2 | 28.8 | 0.6 |
| Max Stassi | 25.7 | 26.3 | 0.6 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 26.0 | 26.6 | 0.6 |
| Tomas Nido | 25.1 | 25.7 | 0.6 |
| Blake Swihart | 27.1 | 27.7 | 0.6 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 28.9 | 29.4 | 0.5 |
| Ryan McMahon | 25.9 | 26.4 | 0.5 |
| Luke Maile | 25.9 | 26.4 | 0.5 |
| Anthony Santander | 27.0 | 27.5 | 0.5 |
| Jose Altuve | 28.1 | 28.6 | 0.5 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 28.6 | 29.1 | 0.5 |
| Albert Almora Jr. | 27.9 | 28.4 | 0.5 |
Hitters Who Lost Spring Speed
| Name | 2018 Sprint Speed | 2019 Spring Speed | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Dahl | 28.6 | 28.1 | -0.5 |
| Aaron Hicks | 28.1 | 27.6 | -0.5 |
| Evan Longoria | 26.9 | 26.4 | -0.5 |
| Ehire Adrianza | 26.9 | 26.4 | -0.5 |
| Phillip Ervin | 28.0 | 27.5 | -0.5 |
| David Fletcher | 28.1 | 27.6 | -0.5 |
| Brian McCann | 22.7 | 22.2 | -0.5 |
| Eric Hosmer | 26.3 | 25.8 | -0.5 |
| Matt Wieters | 24.2 | 23.7 | -0.5 |
| Harrison Bader | 30.0 | 29.5 | -0.5 |
| Delino DeShields | 30.0 | 29.5 | -0.5 |
| Tim Beckham | 27.2 | 26.7 | -0.5 |
| Juan Lagares | 28.5 | 28.0 | -0.5 |
| Luke Voit | 26.3 | 25.8 | -0.5 |
| Tyler Austin | 27.2 | 26.7 | -0.5 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 28.0 | 27.5 | -0.5 |
| Starlin Castro | 27.4 | 26.9 | -0.5 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 27.5 | 27.0 | -0.5 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 26.7 | 26.2 | -0.5 |
| Chris Iannetta | 25.3 | 24.8 | -0.5 |
| Yadiel Rivera | 29.2 | 28.7 | -0.5 |
| Tyler Naquin | 27.5 | 27.0 | -0.5 |
| Tyler White | 25.7 | 25.2 | -0.5 |
| Matt Carpenter | 26.5 | 26.0 | -0.5 |
| Elias Diaz | 26.6 | 26.1 | -0.5 |
| Kevin Newman | 29.0 | 28.5 | -0.5 |
| Justin Turner | 26.6 | 26.1 | -0.5 |
| Rafael Ortega | 27.9 | 27.4 | -0.5 |
| Ramon Laureano | 29.0 | 28.5 | -0.5 |
| Daniel Descalso | 26.8 | 26.3 | -0.5 |
| Dee Gordon | 29.0 | 28.5 | -0.5 |
| Khris Davis | 26.2 | 25.6 | -0.6 |
| Danny Jansen | 27.9 | 27.3 | -0.6 |
| Marwin Gonzalez | 26.4 | 25.8 | -0.6 |
| Austin Romine | 26.4 | 25.8 | -0.6 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 27.7 | 27.1 | -0.6 |
| Paul DeJong | 28.2 | 27.6 | -0.6 |
| Austin Meadows | 28.7 | 28.1 | -0.6 |
| Omar Narvaez | 25.2 | 24.6 | -0.6 |
| Bobby Wilson | 23.8 | 23.2 | -0.6 |
| Anthony Rendon | 27.3 | 26.7 | -0.6 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 24.1 | 23.5 | -0.6 |
| Ronny Rodriguez | 28.0 | 27.4 | -0.6 |
| Ian Desmond | 28.1 | 27.5 | -0.6 |
| Buster Posey | 24.8 | 24.2 | -0.6 |
| Jeff McNeil | 27.8 | 27.2 | -0.6 |
| Jarrod Dyson | 29.0 | 28.4 | -0.6 |
| Billy Hamilton | 30.1 | 29.5 | -0.6 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 25.8 | 25.2 | -0.6 |
| J.P. Crawford | 28.0 | 27.4 | -0.6 |
| Gleyber Torres | 27.1 | 26.5 | -0.6 |
| JB Shuck | 29.5 | 28.9 | -0.6 |
| Nick Williams | 28.4 | 27.7 | -0.7 |
| Dansby Swanson | 29.4 | 28.7 | -0.7 |
| Johan Camargo | 26.3 | 25.6 | -0.7 |
| Mitch Haniger | 27.8 | 27.1 | -0.7 |
| Daniel Robertson | 27.7 | 27.0 | -0.7 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 25.0 | 24.3 | -0.7 |
| Steven Duggar | 28.9 | 28.2 | -0.7 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 27.8 | 27.1 | -0.7 |
| Stephen Piscotty | 26.7 | 26.0 | -0.7 |
| Chris Davis | 25.5 | 24.8 | -0.7 |
| Victor Caratini | 25.7 | 25.0 | -0.7 |
| Zack Cozart | 26.6 | 25.9 | -0.7 |
| Tyler Saladino | 28.6 | 27.9 | -0.7 |
| Lucas Duda | 24.9 | 24.1 | -0.8 |
| Scooter Gennett | 26.4 | 25.6 | -0.8 |
| Lorenzo Cain | 28.6 | 27.8 | -0.8 |
| Wilmer Difo | 28.6 | 27.8 | -0.8 |
| Luis Urias | 28.0 | 27.2 | -0.8 |
| Ketel Marte | 28.7 | 27.9 | -0.8 |
| JaCoby Jones | 29.1 | 28.3 | -0.8 |
| Jose Peraza | 28.8 | 28.0 | -0.8 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 27.1 | 26.3 | -0.8 |
| Tucker Barnhart | 25.0 | 24.1 | -0.9 |
| Jose Iglesias | 28.0 | 27.1 | -0.9 |
| David Freese | 26.5 | 25.6 | -0.9 |
| Hernan Perez | 28.0 | 27.1 | -0.9 |
| Neil Walker | 26.5 | 25.6 | -0.9 |
| Eddie Rosario | 28.0 | 27.1 | -0.9 |
| Francisco Lindor | 28.4 | 27.5 | -0.9 |
| Matt Kemp | 26.3 | 25.4 | -0.9 |
| Jurickson Profar | 27.6 | 26.7 | -0.9 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 27.6 | 26.7 | -0.9 |
| Freddy Galvis | 26.8 | 25.9 | -0.9 |
| Tommy La Stella | 26.6 | 25.7 | -0.9 |
| Josh Reddick | 27.7 | 26.7 | -1.0 |
| Brett Phillips | 29.0 | 28.0 | -1.0 |
| Chance Sisco | 25.5 | 24.5 | -1.0 |
| Yoan Moncada | 28.8 | 27.8 | -1.0 |
| Gregory Polanco | 27.8 | 26.8 | -1.0 |
| Dawel Lugo | 28.5 | 27.5 | -1.0 |
| Mike Tauchman | 28.9 | 27.9 | -1.0 |
| Howie Kendrick | 26.3 | 25.3 | -1.0 |
| Justin Upton | 27.8 | 26.8 | -1.0 |
| Ender Inciarte | 27.9 | 26.8 | -1.1 |
| Brandon Belt | 25.9 | 24.8 | -1.1 |
| Matt Duffy | 27.7 | 26.6 | -1.1 |
| Travis Shaw | 26.7 | 25.6 | -1.1 |
| Yandy Diaz | 27.6 | 26.5 | -1.1 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 24.7 | 23.5 | -1.2 |
| Jorge Soler | 28.2 | 27.0 | -1.2 |
| Jon Jay | 26.0 | 24.8 | -1.2 |
| Tony Kemp | 27.6 | 26.4 | -1.2 |
| Jordy Mercer | 27.6 | 26.4 | -1.2 |
| Austin Hedges | 25.9 | 24.6 | -1.3 |
| Nick Martini | 27.1 | 25.8 | -1.3 |
| Jedd Gyorko | 25.2 | 23.8 | -1.4 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 25.8 | 24.1 | -1.7 |
| Tom Murphy | 28.0 | 26.2 | -1.8 |
While some “beat your favorite author” leagues will be starting soon, head over to the NFBC and sign up for their Draft or Online Championships. Also, for those with deeper pocketbooks, the NFBC Main Events are quickly filling up.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
There is a lot of useful information here. But there are a ton of typos that make it hard to read/understand what is meant in some places. Please spend ten minutes re-reading this and making the needed edits.
Jeff puts out as much useful information as anyone, but yeah, his self-editing skills could be a lot better. It would be great if FG had someone to proofread Jeff’s pieces before publishing.
Sorry for the issues.