Paul Sporer Chat – July 12th, 2019

Paul Sporer: Hellllooo!! Welcome to my weekly chat. The All-Star break is officially over and it’s time for the second half!

Slamboni: AL only roto keeper: I’m in it this year but my pitching is hot trash. Guy offered me good keeper cost Berrios and Cole for very expensive Trout. My offense is pretty set…. Is that crazy?

Paul Sporer: Not crazy at all. That’s two aces in an AL Only and completely addresses your biggest need. That’s a yes for me

Guest: Al only roto Phegley or Roberto Perez

Paul Sporer: I’d lean Perez

Guest: Think Carrasco is back to 100% for next year?

Paul Sporer: Hard to say given what he’s dealing with, but early reports are positive and even suggest a 2019 return

Do You Wanna Build A Stroman?: How do you rank the potential arms on the move? Stroman, Bum, Thor, Wheeler, etc

Paul Sporer: http://fantasy.fangraphs.com/july-starting-pitcher-rankings-2/

Joseph: Benintendi has some red flags in his post-2018 ASB profile (full season sample size at this point now). Find a buyer or hold and pray that he returns to the player he was in the first half last year?

Paul Sporer: I think there are fair & valid concerns, but I’ve considered trying to parlay those into a buy-low. While a rebound isn’t necessarily found in the underlying numbers, I think he’s talented enough to make tweaks and get better. One thing I will say though is that the market tends to love him so if it isn’t a true buy low, I’d pass

Joey: Move albies for Verlander? Roto dynasty and trying to compete this year

Paul Sporer: If pitching is your need, I’m down fo rthat

Guest: what do you think of trading Tatis Jr for Thor. 10 team keeper

Paul Sporer: As a(n angry) Thor believer, I don’t *hate* it, but I feel like Tatis Jr. should bring a more bankable arm right now

Pete : Your percentage chances that the Jays call up Bichette before August?  How about Adell for the LAA – too early?

Paul Sporer: Depends when they trade one or both of Sogard & Galvis, tbh. Love Adell, but where does he play right now: Upton, Trout, Calhoun is kinda locked in and Ohtani has DH

Fisto: What comes first for Dylan Bundy: fewer homers, fewer strikeouts, or retirement?

Paul Sporer: Hopefully fewer HRs. He gets discussed on the Fireside we just completed!

Brandon McKay Dylan Walsh: Hi Paul!

Paul Sporer: Hi! Excellent name there. Loved 90210 as a kid

Do You Wanna Build A Stroman?: What upcoming trade will have the biggest impact on that postseason team?

Paul Sporer: Probably a pitcher. Hard to say which, but someone like Boyd, a Met, Bumgarner, or Stroman will likely have a big impact. I also think the Giants bullpen pieces will be important

Chris: Hey Paul!  12-tm keeper with guys on 3 year contracts.  What should I do with Stripling?  I’ve got him for this year + 2 more and am probably not a playoff team this year.  The talent is there, would you hold in case he gets an opportunity?

Paul Sporer: If you’re not a playoff team, I’d just hold tight. I’d hold pretty much no matter what, but it’s a lot easier if you’re not contending

Elton: Year 4 of a dynasty rebuild. I traded Matt Chapman, who costs $9 (we have a $500 budget) and is cost controlled, meaning it’ll be several years still before he receives a significant raise, for Jared Kelenic. How do you think I did on this trade?

Paul Sporer: As a Chapman diehard, I’d have probably just hung onto him given how well-priced he is and already contributing, but Kelenic drew rave reviews from folks I talked to at the Futures Game

Guest: what do you think about trading Tatis Jr for Thor? 10 team keeper, keep 7 players.

Paul Sporer: Don’t. Repeat. Questionssss!!!

Mark: What SP do you think the Astros could get for Kyle Tucker?

Paul Sporer: Matt Boyd!

Oliver: Hate paying for saves but in desperate need. Wait to see how the deadline shakes out or deal Soroka (have pitching depth) for Jansen? 12 team category keep 10 forever

Paul Sporer: Why do ppl hate paying for them? Isn’t it better than the agonizing grind of trying to scrape them off the wire all year? Sure, not all the perceived studs worked out, but the top end is a much safer bet than many let on when they say don’t pay for SVs. Soroka for Jansen totally works

Logan: I have to drop one of Gallen/McKay/Anibal/Paddack to activate Caleb Smith off IL, what do I do?

Paul Sporer: That’s toughhhhh. I think Gallen. Anibal has been SO good since returning from the IL.

HappyFunBall: Considering selling Wander Franco for James Paxton in a dynasty league. Yes, it’s firmly a win-now move and it addresses an area of need. Should I do it?

Paul Sporer: Need a more bankable arm for arguably the best prospect in baseball. Try for Snell?

CHONKytonk Badonkadonk: Do you think the Mets are actually looking for king’s ransom for Matz? Am I missing something here? Asking for a friend

Paul Sporer: Set the market high and then you can come down from there

Pamplemoustakous: Drop my Desmond for Nunez, Thames, or Aguilar?

Paul Sporer: No, I’d rather not. Desmond has a .943 OPS and 8 HR in his last 189 PA since May 1st and they open home in Coors

Brandon McKay Dylan Walsh: I’m in a 12 tm league that count holds. I need some ratio help…who are you grabbing out of Castillo, McHugh, Omberg, W Harris, and Matt Barnes…?

Paul Sporer: Oberg, Harris, McHugh in that order

Oliver: Percent chance Eovaldi gets and keeps the closer role?

Paul Sporer: 72%

Mookie Butts: Paul!! Trying to get a damaged Snell for my second half….is JD Martinez a fair swap? 15 team dynasty roto. Both teams are contending with opposite needs.

Paul Sporer: Ideally, I’d want a discount if I could squeeze one, but I’m open to paying full market which is what this is so if the needs match, I can get behind this

BlackJack Badger: Do Twins, Keep it up and actually make a push to World Series ? or deep in playoffs

Paul Sporer: Playoffs are almost impossible to predict, but I believe in them as real contenders

Rouse: Dynasty league; I am in go for it mode.  Is Dahl & Jasson Dominguez too much to give up for JD Martinez?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so… go for it

Jed: If Severino is healthy going into 2020 where will you rank him?

Paul Sporer: 35thish?

Paul Sporest: Hey Paul, Would you trade Mike Soroka for Blake Snell (5×5, h2h, 10 team league) for the upside of snell and expected regression from soroka?

Paul Sporer: 100000% … this is the kind of discount I love getting for Snell

DonJulio: Does Max Fried turn things around this year?

Paul Sporer: I certainly think he can, yes. Nick covers him more on today’s Fireside (out later!)

Roger : Kluber or Severino: better stash?

Paul Sporer: Kluber for me

Rouse: Rest of the season who you prefer for a points league: David Dahl or Lourdes Gurriel?

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna lean Dahl here

Hyde: Who would you keep for next year if the costs were all the same: Senzel, Minor, McKay or Gallen?

Paul Sporer: Senzel for sure

Unknown Odor: Is it time to scoop Odor?  He seems to be back to July form.  In past Julys he has batted .298 with a .265 ISO and .377 wOBA with steals too.  Thats a fresh Odor and top 20 player.

Paul Sporer: Given that he’s essentially free, you can, but I’m just not a fan. I just can’t deal with the extreme volatility. His plate skills are still terrible even over the last month when his results have been great.

Roger : been offered gallo for my Olson. Who do you prefer?

Paul Sporer: They’re pretty similar, but I’ll lean Gallo here

Oscar Mercado: I just appeared on the waiver wire (12-team). Am I worth grabbing, even if drops are hard to come by?

Paul Sporer: Yes, he could be a dynamic SB piece the rest of the way

Chris: Looking to turn a this-year-only John Means into a longer term asset in a 12-team keeper.  What sort of arm should I be targeting?  Any other “Usually Start” guy in your updated rankings (plug them again here!)

Paul Sporer: If you can get one you like more, yes, but I might try for a batter instead as I’m not sure many would do a 1-for-1 pitcher deal for Means as there is skepticism regarding that ERA — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/july-starting-pitcher-rankings-2/

FAAB: Sat Lynn last night so great decision by me! You starting Robbie Ray tonight?

Paul Sporer: I know it seems like hindsight since I know the outcome, but I’ve got Lynn as a Must Start right now. I’ll start Ray at StL

Chris: How would you rank these ROS? Benintendi, Laureano, Pollack

Paul Sporer: I think I go with how you’ve listed them here, with a drop off from Laureano to Pollock

oswald2319: I cry myself to sleep over Jesus Luzardo

Paul Sporer: It’s such a bummer. I’m ready to watch him dominate, but health has been such a problem

Zipp: 12 team, H2H. I’m in 3rd right now, and really like my roster. I have the opportunity to trade for Realmuto (would be for Murphy and probably a late draft pick). Do I pull the trigger on this, or snag Jansen off waivers, or just continue to roll out C Kelly?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think that’s an exorbitant cost for JTR so I’m inclined to give it a go. Eno was talking to Daniel Murphy recently and saw that he still had a splint he wears on the finger while not playing so he’s still compromised. It may heal and fuel a big 2H, but I’m willing to trade him and take that risk, espec. for a potentiall premium C

Guest: in your opinion, what is % chance Kyle Tucker gets traded?

Paul Sporer: 38%

Roger : What are the effects of Hanmatw injuries on power? Matt Olson for example has smashed baseballs since returning from his injury. Is it possible that his power numbers could get better as any lingering effects from the injury go away?

Paul Sporer: It’s not a set effect, but it has sapped power in guys before. That was a concern with Olson, but he has bucked that. I’m not sure he will necessarily get better as it just seems there are no lingering effects from the surgery. Love Olson and I’m glad he’s been smashing since returning

Brad Wesley: Thoughts on Biggio’s performance to date? What do you expect from him RoS? Thoughts on long term value? I have been impressed.

Paul Sporer: Big fan!! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/power-on-the-rise/ — Definitely buying him where available

MadBum’s Dirt Bike: Redraft league. I’m loaded with bats to the point I have to sit a good hitter every single day and like everyone, need pitching. I’m terrible at trading and trying to figure a fair offer for Snell from among Alonso, Carlos Santana, Devers, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Ohtani.

Paul Sporer: I think any of those is at least fair in a 1-for-1, though Alonso, Devers, and Chapman would be more likely to get it done

Oliver: Thanks for the response re: Soroka v Jansen. I always felt that way too but the whole don’t pay for saves things has been really beaten into me. Part two, would you prefer Aroldis or Jansen?

Paul Sporer: Coinflip between em, I don’t have a specific lean

Mark: Hey Paul, have any mean Christians hurt you lately? Poor baby.

Paul Sporer: lolwut?

AP5510: Seager off the IL, but L. Gurriel has been fantastic in his absence. Silly to try to move Seager for MadBum? (14 team points league where we keep 7)

Paul Sporer: Dealing with the same thing. IL’d Seager and Gurriel was an elite replacement so now I have a little surplus. I’m OK w/Seager-for-Madbum. Could maybe push a little higher, but it’s a fair deal

Tiger in the Woods: Let’s say the Tigers sell Boyd for Franimal/Tucker and get a nice package for Greene and Castellanos.  Can we compete next year?  Or are we 2021 at the earliest?

Paul Sporer: Probably still 2021 unless severalllll things broke perfectly next year

Chance Sisco: Is my recent play real or a mirage? I’ve got the pedigree but not the recent history …

Paul Sporer: Definitely over his head at this level, but there’s no reason he can’t be a viable top 12-15 C rest of season

Todd: Is Sale enough of a return for Baez in a keep forever OBP league? I need pitching and have a Muncy, Moustakas and Tatis for the rest of my MI spots.

Paul Sporer: Yes ace for stud bat totally works

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer: Agreed!

tacopocket: Hey paul….thanks again for the chats and the help on social.  I’m middle of the pack in steals – who should i give up for Mallex out of these:  upton, franimal, olson, walker (can you order them?).    It’s a 5X5 13 man league with PBP instead of average.   I

Paul Sporer: Ranking them in who I’d want to trade first: Upton, Walker, Franimal, Olson

Matty Millz : Thoughts on Joe Musgrove’s 2nd half outlook? More inconsistency or we going to truly see the potential, had a few good starts before the break

Paul Sporer: I’m sticking with him: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-710-… Might just be a year early on him, but I still see the upside here

Parrapa: How much longer to I hold darvish in a 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer: He’s a streamer at this point. I’m still inclined to at least reserve him when I’m not using his start bc there is upside, but if you find someone you like more on the wire, he’s cuttable in 10- and 12-teamers

Djmetal: Is Paddack starting an MLB game in the next 10 days?  I can’t find anywhere when his next start is going to be.

Paul Sporer: RW is saying this weekend, but it’s not in bold meaning it’s not 100% confirmed: https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/projected-starters.php

spob: Hi Paul, 20-team H2H roto w OBP and SV+H. My pitching is stacked (Kershaw, Ryu, deGrom, Giolito, Paddack) but i’m lacking in RBI & HR. Is Paddack for Calhoun a good idea?

Paul Sporer: For Willie or Kole Calhoun? Even though he’s almost certainly hitting an innings limit, I think he’s still worth more than a Calhoun

vcoheda: i have seen many conflicting reports on who would likely close if giles is traded — hudson or biagini. your thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Let me defer to our Bullpen Report on that: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/bullpen-report-trade-primer/

redbirds: are you as excited about Dylan Carlson as I am?

Paul Sporer: He’s been excellent this year. I can’t pretend to be excited about him though as I really only learned about him earlier this season

Sum: hey Paul! 10 team keeper H@H points. looking to shore up pitching – would you give up McKay and Adalberto at cheap prices for merely affordable Jose Berrios? thanks!

Paul Sporer: That feels heavy, but I feel like the points league factor probably curbs some of Mondesi’s value? I’m sure he still scores, but the SBs just don’t matter nearly as much. If that’s the case, then I’d be open to pulling the trigger here

Adrian: Flaherty + a prospect (a Touki Toussaint, or Griffin Canning) for Walker Buehler a fair deal? deep deep 14 teamer

Paul Sporer: It is fair, yes, though I’d prefer Buehler side

Chris: I can probably only keep 3 of Musgrove, Stripling, Lucchesi, Kikuchi, Arrieta, and have a wildcard Manaea coming off the DL later this year.  Currently leaning towards the first three listed.  Keeper league playing for playoffs next year, who would you hold?

Paul Sporer: Yes, you’ve ranked them as I would . I like Manaea in general, but not super-confident he will do much this year

Ryan: Loved Christin Stewart coming into the season. What happened? Is he going to bounce back? Droppable in a 15-team 5×5?

Paul Sporer: Ya I thought he could do something like what Franmil Reyes is doing on the high end. He’s simply not hitting the ball well right now. His K% and BB% rates are actually fine and the Ks are markedly better than I expected, but his power profile is a disaster. Maybe he’s just learning the bigs, but until we see better contact, it’s hard to have any hope.

John: Even in this era of amazing shortstops, Semien is amazingly overlooked. He’s top 10 in R, RBI, HR and OBP in a terrible park, without lucky peripherals propping up his stats …

Paul Sporer: Peak Glue Guy — not a superstar, but solidifies a lineup so nicely

Nathan: Is Whit Merrifield going to get to 30 SB this season? I shouldn’t complain about another year of excellent production, but I mainly drafted him for speed.

Paul Sporer: He swiped 28 in the 2H last year. And that’s the thing with SBs, they can come in extreme bunches. He hasn’t run as much as expected and he’s been caught the most, but it doesn’t take THAT much improvement to get to 30, even without a full half of the season left. So I’ll lean yes

Sal: I needed a big upgrade at pitching and have plenty of bats. I traded Trout for Kris Bryant and Luis Castillo, good trade?

Paul Sporer: I’m cool with that. That’s what you need to trade Trout: premium arm and big time bat

Follower the leader: I know you only brought up Wade theBlanc as a joke on your pitcher podcast, but if I’m shopping for followers how does he compare with Beeks and Yarbrough?

Paul Sporer: Skills-wise, they’re all similar, so I’ll use team factor to break the tie up and put the two Rays ahead of him. Leblanc could be dealt, but I’m not sure what role it’d be for – true starter, follower, or 1-3 IP reliever

Ghost of Prospects Past: With Giolito struggling in his last 4 starts, does this mark his fall from OMG ACE to normal mid tier starter?

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily, no. Not every bump is the beginning of the end, sometimes it’s just a blip. The break probably hit at a perfect time and we’ll have to look at these next 3 or so starts to see where we’re at

Trades: 12 Team dynasty: I’ve been offered Yoan Moncada for Luis Castillo. Pull the trigger?

Paul Sporer: If that matches needs, I can get behind it

Ryan: Who closes for SF after the deadline? I’m stashing Moronta, what do you think?

Paul Sporer: Wrote a little about that in the intro of this piece – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/potential-deadline-beneficiaries/ Moronta is the play for me

Nelson: Do you expect Montas to be ranked top 30 SP  before the start of next year? Would you trade for him as a buy low?

Paul Sporer: No, not top 30 coming into the season if I had to guess. I would deal for him, though

Goldy’s Lumber: Hi Paul, Thank you for the chats!!!

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome!

Pat’s Bat: Is there a reason Michael Pineda didn’t make your last pitcher ranking?  He’s looked much better his last two starts.

Paul Sporer: It was a miss. I still don’t trust him, but he should’ve been on the list

Mark Wahlberg : Why do you take stupid comments like Matt Damon?

Paul Sporer: So I can take even worse ones like this!

Philipto: Khris Davis home runs ROS: over under 28?

Paul Sporer: Under for me

bob: JRam for Thor. 8 team keeper. H2H categories.

Paul Sporer: Buy low for buy low

Paul Sporer: OK, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!