The Daily Grind: Second Half Commencement

I hired the ghost of Ty Cobb to give the commencement speech for the second half of the season. Unfortunately, I didn’t realize his views of the sport have not changed since his death in 1961. Namely, he’s not a fan of home run celebrations or, uh, minorities.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Money

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Kidzero hit the All Star Break on a high note, landing first and second in our final TDGI of the first half. Zack Greinke and an average of nearly 20 points per his remaining players (except for a dud J.D. Martinez) fueled the easy victory. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have a 13-game contest for our glorious return to action tonight on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Sound the all-clear.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Gerrit Cole ($22,000) leads the way tonight against a surprisingly tenacious Rangers club. I keep waiting for them to fade to black. I’m sure their front office wouldn’t mind a timely slump so they can offload Lance Lynn and Mike Minor for some longer term solutions. In any case, Cole is a perfectly reasonable play tonight in a slate that otherwise lacks aces.

For example, Domingo German ($19,300) is the next most expensive. Pass me the under please.

Mike Clevinger ($18,800) is far more interesting as a source of maximum volatility. It’s a shame he missed most of the season with an injury because he’s shown every sign of a true breakout. The Twins are a challenging and risky opponent. Clevinger could range anywhere from negative values all the way up to around a slate-leading 40 points. His opponent, Kyle Gibson, would normally be a no-brainer mid-tier pick for $15,000. There are many mid-tier options today.

It’s the Battle of the Grays. The book on Jon Gray ($17,700) is to avoid him at Coors Field. Did you know he has a 3.35 ERA at home this year? Doesn’t matter to me, I’m still avoiding him opposite the Reds. I’ll certainly pass on $17,100 Sonny Gray.

Caleb Smith ($16,900) is making his second start back from the injured list. Under normal conditions, I would happily use him against the Mets. Hell, I’ll still happily use him. Beware though, he’s allowed at least one home run in nine straight outings. On a value basis, Jason Vargas ($15,000) is just barely viable opposite the lowly Marlins. That said, Vargas is the type of pitcher who doesn’t gain much advantage from facing weak opponents.

Yonny Chirinos ($16,400) is visiting Dylan Bundy ($14,700). I’d like to give more consideration to them, but…

…Robbie Ray costs only $15,300 versus a slumpy Cardinals offense. Ray is a regular bet for around six innings and double-digit strikeouts. There’s volatility at play – much like with Clevinger. The range of outcomes is seemingly less widely distributed. Ray’s a high risk, high reward play who might not kill your roster if it doesn’t go according to plan. It helps that he’s $3,500 cheaper than Clevo.

Danny Duffy ($13,500) is a cheaper alternative to the mid-tier guys. He should easily fire 15 points against a bad Tigers offense. Sure, they’re not as bad against southpaws. They’re still bad though. Bad.

Chase Anderson ($12,700) is very similar to Duffy but with more strikeouts and an even friendlier matchup. He should easily emerge as the victor in the Battle of the Andersons. Pencil in six innings and six strikeouts.

Favorite Plays: Clevinger, Ray, Duffy, Anderson

Stack Targets: Aaron Sanchez, Gray, Gray, Felix Pena, Jesse Chavez, Shaun Anderson, Daniel Norris, Ivan Nova

4. SaberSim Says…

Cole, Ray, Dinelson Lamet (???), Smith, and Clevinger lead the pitchers today. Lamet showed he still has strikeout stuff in his return from the injured list, but he’s yet to prevent high run totals since starting his rehab assignment. Ray, Duffy, Smith, Anderson, and Adam Wainwright are the bargains.

On the hitting side of the ledger, we have our usual troop of Charlie Blackmon, Christian Yelich, Yordan Alvarez, Mike Trout, and Alex Bregman. Shockingly, the price system left Scooter Gennett as the top bargain followed by Yadiel Rivera, Ji-Man Choi, Mike Zunino, and Joey Votto. Usually, visitors to Coors Field have their value crushed into a gooey paste.

5. Money

Bregman isn’t a lock to play tonight due to some chin stitches. The Astros have a healthy lead in the division so they might give him a day to make sure he wasn’t concussed.

I don’t really understand how Lynn does this with only a fastball. It’s obviously a much better fastball than it looks because it looks like it should be mashed.

Show me the money!