Starting Pitcher Chart – September 8th, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. I’m still marinating on ideas for the weekend as I won’t be able to commit to separate Saturday & Sunday ones due to time.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | TBR | x | x | x | 2.35 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 29% K-BB | .331 – 6th | Deserves better than his 3.73 season ERA |
| Alek Manoah | TOR | at NYY | x | x | x | 5.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .328 – 10th | ERA boosted by 2 bombs in L4 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | LAD | x | x | x | 0.74 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .295 – 23rd | What an incredible story he’s been! |
| Frankie Montas | OAK | CWS | x | x | x | 1.99 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .328 – 12th | 2.43 ERA & 87 Ks since 8 ER dud on 6/26 |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | NYM | x | x | x | 2.04 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 27% K-BB | .336 – 3rd | L5 have come after that 10 ER Coors dud |
| Triston McKenzie | CLE | MIN | x | x | x | 1.85 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 26% K-BB | .323 – 13th | In the midst of a huge breakout |
| Shane McClanahan | TBR | at BOS | x | x | x | 3.81 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 23% K-BB | .352 – 6th | 8 H in 3 of L5 is pushing the WHIP |
| Freddy Peralta | MIL | PHI | x | x | x | 4.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 22% K-BB | .311 – 19th | Still starting everywhere despite IP issues |
| José Urquidy | HOU | SEA | x | x | x | 2.70 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .302 – 21st | Made it 71 pitches in return from IL |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | at CLE | x | x | x | 5.40 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 21% K-BB | .325 – 12th | 0.79 WHIP, 32% K-BB at AAA in 66 IP |
| Yu Darvish | SDP | LAA | x | x | x | 7.77 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 26% K-BB | .279 – 29th | I’d sit if protecting ratios: 7.57 ERA since 7/1 |
| Rich Hill | NYM | at MIA | x | x | 3.97 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .343 – 11th | Hasn’t allowed >4 ER in any start | |
| Luis Gil | NYY | TOR | x | x | 0.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .336 – 4th | Massive test for the rookie | |
| Vladimir Gutierrez | CIN | at CHC | x | x | 4.21 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .314 – 18th | SpiderNeck had amped Ks before 3 in L2 | |
| Luke Weaver | ARI | TEX | x | x | 3.70 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .315 – 17th | Gem off IL has re-ignited interest in 27 y/o | |
| Kyle Gibson | PHI | at MIL | x | 5.46 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .355 – 2nd | 6, 3, 1, 0, 8 ER in L5 show his volatility | ||
| Tyler Anderson | SEA | at HOU | x | 3.03 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .341 – 12th | Hasn’t allowed >3 ER since joining SEA | ||
| Anthony DeSclafani | SFG | at COL | x | 4.12 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 14% K-BB | .305 – 16th* | 2 IL stints in Aug. limiting IP totals of late | ||
| Kohei Arihara | TEX | at ARI | x | 8.83 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .297 – 22nd | Hasn’t reached 4 IP in any of L4 starts | ||
| Mitch White | LAD | at STL | x | 3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .304 – 20th | Has gone more than 4 IP just once | ||
| Matt Manning | DET | at PIT | 7.40 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 6% K-BB | .285 – 28th | Not even this matchup can lure me in | |||
| Mitch Keller | PIT | DET | 4.56 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .294 – 24th | 0 ER app. in 2 of L3, but other was 7 ER | |||
| Dallas Keuchel | CWS | at OAK | 9.90 ERA, 2.15 WHIP, -3% K-BB | .293 – 21st | Shouldn’t be rostered anywhere | |||
| Sean Nolin | WAS | at ATL | 5.71 ErA, 1.70 WHIP, 15% K-BB | .337 – 14th | HRs make him a stayaway | |||
| Touki Toussaint | ATL | WAS | 3.81 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .323 – 15th | 5.52 ERA since those 2 gems after ASB | |||
| Alec Mills | CHC | CIN | 3.81 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .332 – 5th | Not enough upside to gamble | |||
| Jon Gray | COL | SFG | 6.55 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .318 – 16th | No chance I’d face these Giants in Coors | |||
| Mike Minor | KCR | at BAL | 4.94 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .291 – 23rd | BAL has .199 ISO at home vL this yr (7th) | |||
| Matt Harvey | BAL | KCR | 6.84 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .286 – 27th | 6.52 ERA since those three 0 ER outings |
Not saying I disagree with the list but 5 of the 9 “Do Not Start” guys have an wOBA under .300 over the last 30 days.
I hear you, I just can’t trust ’em, though
Found this super helpful. Would love to see it continue through the rest of the season, especially if it was published for tomorrow’s starters
This is fantastic, Paul, thanks. I usually just eyeball matchups but having the extra information, recommendations, etc can really help when making quick decisions. I just hope none of my league mates find this table if I’m up against them…
Hey new to the site and some of these stats, but I have Wainwright going today and wouldn’t you want a lower opponent wOBA? I might be understanding it wrong but I would rank wainwright in the top 10 instead of 23rd or whatever right?
I love this chart though! Even more stats or advice on starting or sitting would be greatly appreciated! Thank you for your work!
The wOBA is what his opponent has done the last 30 days against his handedness (so Dodgers v. righties). 23rd is great, though I’d use him regardless given how great he’s been
Because of how well he has been doing but also because his wOBA is so low?
I agree with the other commenters that this is super-helpful. Please keep them coming if you can! Thanks!
In the no one cares but me department, in our H2H final, we’ve got Peralta and Gil vs Montas/McKenzie/Ryan, all three of which appear to be top of the line starts based on the above (thank you for this article, Paul).
Fingernails will be gone by tomorrow.
That is going to be intense!!
Joe Ryan was a beast – we’ve got our work cut out for us.
To everyone still fighting for a title, keep grinding. And if you’re playing head to head, even if you’re behind (like we are),you’re still in it – including the guy in today’s chat whose team went 2 for 41. That’s a tough hill to climb, but there’s no reason why your opponent can’t go 5 for 40 tomorrow. Each day is different, and anything is possible.
Good Luck!
Not sure that Peralta is a must start. Normally he would be.
But I’m in a paleolithic 5×5 Roto league, and I’m in a 3-way fight for first.
I need wins and K, but Peralta probably isn’t going to last long enough for the win. I’m probably going to gain a point in K (just two K behind, starting today) with or without this start, and I’m almost certainly too far behind to gain another (100 K behind a double point with one of my two competitors).
On the other hand, I can gain 2-3 pts in ERA before the end of the season or lose 1-2, and the WHIP category is a 3 way dogfight between my team and the two rival teams fighting with me for first, and I’m sitting between the other two.
I don’t feel I can risk the damage in ERA and WHIP that a start similar to his first start off the DL can cause. Not for 4-6 K’s it isn’t.
But that’s just me. If you’re in a different situation, then you’ll probably start Peralta today.
And get his 6 innings of 2 hit, 1 run ball with 8 K and 3 BB. And the win.
I love this, by the way. Great idea and great addition! Thanks! I guess my one big comment, which I know is a lot to ask, is that in so many daily leagues you have to decide the previous day who to pick up, and so streaming info is only useful the day before the game. So, if it’s possible to prioritize posting this (even a less polished version) the night before, that would make a big difference to my teams, at least! Thanks.
Would a Sun night/Mon morning weekly version of this ever be feasible? That would be a game-changer.