Starting Pitcher Chart – September 9th, 2021
With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.
Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. I’m still marinating on ideas for the weekend as I won’t be able to commit to separate Saturday & Sunday ones due to time.
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | 10 | 12 | 15+ | L5 STATS | OPP wOBA L30 days | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | NYM | at MIA | x | x | x | 3.38 ERA, 1,20 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .279 – 30th | He’s been a fantasy ace (2.93 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) |
| Cal Quantrill | CLE | MIN | x | x | x | 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .327 – 9th | Strong 2H could fuel a ’22 hype machine |
| Carlos Hernandez | KCR | at BAL | x | x | x | 2.30 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 12% K-BB | .334 – 4th | Great since joining rotation after ASB |
| Néstor Cortes Jr. | NYY | TOR | x | x | x | 3.34 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 18% K-BB | .338 – 14th | Now at 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP as SP (48 IP) |
| José Berríos | TOR | at NYY | x | x | x | 5.19 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 20% K-BB | .327 – 10th | B2B high-K, quality starts (1.98 ERA, 18 Ks) |
| Ranger Suárez | PHI | COL | x | x | x | 2.08 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 13% K-BB | .344 – 9th | Can’t wait to see his ’22 price tag |
| Huascar Ynoa | ATL | WAS | x | x | x | 4.61 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .325 -12th | Strong off the IL and back to all-formats SP |
| Reynaldo López | CWS | at OAK | x | x | x | 2.45 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .327 – 8th | He can see… I’m back in!!! |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | at PHI | x | x | x | 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 11% K-BB | .310 – 17th | Hot hand play I like on the road here |
| John Means | BAL | KCR | x | x | x | 5.96 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 19% K-BB | .326 – 17th | 3 straight strong outings, worth it here |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | CWS | x | x | x | 7.54 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .368 – 3rd | Plenty of 10s where I’d sit him right now |
| Tony Gonsolin | LAD | at STL | x | 2.75 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8% K-BB | .304 – 21st | Could be a shortened start | ||
| Jake Woodford | STL | LAD | 4.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 16% K-BB | .293 – 26th | Great at MIL last time out, but LAD too scary | |||
| Randy Dobnak | MIN | at CLE | 8.88 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 2% K-BB | .308 – 20th | Lack of whiffs has fully caught up to him | |||
| Jesús Luzardo | MIA | NYM | 6.29 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 10% K-BB | .284 – 27th | Too risky with limited upside right now | |||
| Erick Fedde | WAS | at ATL | 5.70 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 17% K-BB | .321 – 14th | High blowup potential every time out |
Here’s my (admittedly thin) case for Dobnak:
– he was pretty successful vs RH bats last year with the heavy GB tilt
– CLE lineup starts a fair amount of RH bats and they’ve been ice cold
– his WHIP over his last two starts (12 innings) is south of 1.0
If the league is deep and you’re truly desperate, he’s not the worst lottery ticket you can grab. Hopefully he avoids giving up a couple of moon shots to Ramirez or Bradley.
So much for my defense, Dobnak was scratched due to a finger injury, maybe he hurt it trying to press “like” to my comment.
Love this feature. Would read again.
Any chance of putting this view out the day before the date they pitch? I think it’s awesome and I’m in a bit if a streaming situation to make up for an innings gap. But 2 of my leagues have nightly waivers so I’m making decisions the night before. I picked up Hernandez and Cortes last night so very happy to see them near the top today!
Agreed, day before would be amazing.
Senzatela has been better at home than on the road, both this year and for his career. He is on a great roll with 5 straight QS against good competition. I just have a hard time with his complete lack of Ks.
Debating it at this point. . . . leaning no just because the Rockies’ bats are so dreadful on the road that the likelihood of a W is low.
Rockies’ road numbers: .286 OBP, .334 SLG, .620 OPS, .273 wOBA. That is like putting out a full lineup of Nick Ahmeds or Hunter Doziers (the 2 closest comps to those numbers). Ahmed and Dozier are 136th and 137th out of 139 qualified hitters in wOBA
This is VERY helpful, both for streaming purposes and also to know which batters to start – please keep publishing.
awesome idea! Thanks
Can’t figure out what the number after the vs. wOBA is (ie: “10th” or 27th”)
The opposing team’s rank over the last 30 days. So for Stroman, the Marlins are 30th in wOBA v. righties the last 30 days