Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 22, 2017

Paul Sporer: It’s chat tiiiiimmmeee!!! I can’t believe the regular season is almost over 🙁

Eric: For next year: Olson or Hoskins and how close is it?

Paul Sporer: Hoskins, but it is close. I just prefer Hoskins w/the much better K%. Olson will struggle to hit .263 in a full season at a 28% K rate

Guest: Will Dahl play next year and if so, will he be any good?  Or is he just never going to be able to stay healthy?

Paul Sporer: I mean, I certainly *think* he’ll play next year, but I don’t know for sure. I expect him to be a solid OF when healthy

weezy: When starting a league, what’s your keeper format philosophy? Increase in cost/draft round per year? # of keepers? And is snake or auction a preferred format?

Paul Sporer: I definitely prefer auction when possible as it’s the most fun to me. My favorite is an auction with somewhere around 7 keepers.

The Brink: Hey Paul – Best chance for QS this weekend: G. Richards @HOU tonight, or Taillon v. STL Sunday?  Gibson tonight?

Paul Sporer: Richards should get his pitch count extended and could make it six, but that matchup is rough. Gibson, Richards, and then Taillon

The Brink: Did you believe in the new (old) Doug Fister prior to 2 starts ago?  Was this just a 2-start hiccup?

Paul Sporer: I believe he can put up the good starts we’ve seen, but I also believe in the bad. His volatility is severe because his margin for error is so small

Pat: Who should I start: Ervin Santana @ DET on Saturday or Stroman vs NYY on Sunday? Pts league

Paul Sporer: If I’m only getting one, gimme Erv

Big Tuna: Favorite streamers for next week if you’re just going for wins?

Paul Sporer: We’ll be writing about that, so stay tuned. I haven’t checked the schedule yet

Miles from Somewhere: Would you rather finish 2nd in 3/3 leagues or 1st in 1/3?

Paul Sporer: Winning is so awesome, so I think I’d go for the title in 1 of 3

Shawn: Keep Devers or Hoskins (equal cost in the keeper league)? I realize Devers was a higher rated prospect, but just 40 AB difference and the numbers point to Hoskins.

Paul Sporer: I have a really hard time throwing Hoskins back after his performance. Small sample and all, but such an elite sample that I think he’s the guy even at a deep position like 1B

Matt: Grandal bounce back next year, or does he lose too much playing time to be a top-10 guy?

Paul Sporer: The only thing that really fell off in an unexpected way was the BB%. His 25% HR/FB from last yr was going to be tough to repeat. I think this year was definitely in the range of outcomes. I could see some of the BB% returning to improve the OBP, but otherwise the same

Big Tuna: Our keeper league is trying to de-incentivize tanking and stocking up on prospects who don’t provide current year value by debating punishments of losing mid round draft picks or waiver dollars the following year. Where would you stand on something like that?

Paul Sporer: I don’t like taking picks away at all, but losing FAAB is something that Tout Wars does to incentivize staying active and avoiding last. I also like the idea of rewarding first pick to first person outside the money instead of just giving it to last place

Just a Guy: who do you prefer next season berrios or weaver?

Paul Sporer: Berrios, but those are two of my favorite young arms so I’ll be eyeing both for sure

Brian: Leave out one for a contender next year:  Bregman, Beni, Devers, Bellinger, Hoskins.  Leaning towards Devers.

Paul Sporer: Ya I think it’s Devers and mostly bc those others have excelled over him as opposed to anything against him

Big Tuna: Has your keeper opinion on Matt Olson changed since the pod? He continues to rake.

Paul Sporer: Was I against him on the pod? I feel like I was pretty pro-Olson

Brian: Rizzo an elite 2B next year?

Paul Sporer: In leagues where he qualifies. Most lgs require *starts* to qualify and he only appeared there 10x so I’m not sure he’ll qual, but in leagues where he does, yes he’s an elite 2B

TheDuck: Is Elvis Andrus for real?  Most numbers seem in line with his career stats, aside from the power.  What do you expect from him in ’18?

Paul Sporer: I could see the HR coming back a little, but the 12% HR/FB isn’t too crazy so I’m not sure it’ll come all the way back to his career 5%.

Graham : Should I keep Devers for $2, or Conforto for $5

Paul Sporer: Devers. I’m scared about Conforto’s shoulder injury

Derek in Little Rock: Do you think Arizona resigns JD Martinez?  If not them, who?  I love him in that park.

Paul Sporer: I think there’s a really good chance they do. I agree that he’s awesome in that park so I certainly HOPE they re-sign him

Kevin: How much am I gonna regret starting Nolasco on Monday against the White Sox? (assuming nothing gets pushed back)

Paul Sporer: I don’t hate it. They’re obviously trash, you know the risk with Nolasco so it could go wrong, but it’s not a bad bet

Derek: Is Fulmer someone to keep for $6 or is there a chance he could go for higher? Let’s assume he is slated to start the season and his velo is half a mile down.

Paul Sporer: I’d keep him at that price. Seeing deGrom’s success after the same surgery heartens me

rpo: How would you rate following keepers for next year – Berrios, Godley, Bundy?

Paul Sporer: I think that’s the exact order (though I will have a top 50 or so going up in October)

Derek in Little Rock: Robinson Chirinos as a front-line fantasy starter in 2018?

Paul Sporer: Front-line? No. Gotta be cautious w/a 33-year old breakout like this. But as a cheaper C1 or strong C2, I dig him

TheDuck: Assuming equal cost, who do you prefer as a keeper, Godley or Duffy?

Paul Sporer: I’m still gonna take Duffy by a nose

Dave: Hey Paul, I asked you back in August about if I should trade my cheaply keepable Belli for a huge package of stud players, and you said of course I should and implied I was dumb for asking. You were right and my team greatly improved after the deal. Thank you.

Paul Sporer: LOL wait, I implied you were dumb? You must’ve named the players involved, right?

Im desperate: 10 team H2H, im in the fantasy finals and I get to keep 5 keepers. Right now im keeping the Sanchino, All Rise, Corey Seager, Bellinger but im in between MadBum now or Just Dingers Martinez. Any help ?

Paul Sporer: I’d personally keep JD and then just use the draft to build my staff

Brian: Are you downgrading guys from the Dodgers and Cubs, deep teams like that, for next year?  So much talent, guys like Javy Baez and Schwarber get less run.

Paul Sporer: Probably not, no. Guys don’t really play 162 anymore anyway so I’ll just continue to pick what I think is the best talent and let the playing time sort itself

Shuck Bowalter: Sad thing about Jimmy Nelson. Is he worth dropping in Otto, even if you have him at a reasonable-ish price?

Paul Sporer: Really sucks. Reason 26394632984782486328746 why pitchers shouldn’t bat.

Brian: I just want to appreciate Joe Mauer right now.  Just……thanks Joe.

Paul Sporer: Solid CI or UT if you had pwr to cover at traditionally power-lite positions – .311/.388/.427, 7 HR, 68 RBI, 65 R

rap: Daniel Murphy at $17 next year or Benintendi at $8?

Paul Sporer: Damn that’s tough. I’m sure many would say Beni automatically. I think it’s razor-close, but I will go Beni. Enough $ split to make him the better option given what they both did this yr and the ages of each

Big Tuna: Re: Olson, I didn’t mean if you were against him, I meant more whether you were more bullish or raised him in your keeper rankings.

Paul Sporer: Ohhh, ok. I was just making sure. I haven’t changed, but I still like him. Can’t ignore the K% and thus the potential AVG liability, but the power is awesome

Just a Guy: cubs bullpen is messy. with arrieta back and montgomery likely returned to the pen can they get it together? also i can’t recall a guy having a season like wilson’s. awesome in detroit and just godawful in chicago. is it mechanical or mental?

Paul Sporer: Ya I can’t recall anyone going THAT extreme, either. He’s useless for the Cubs rn. Maybe hurt? It’s just SO stark. Thankfully Duensing has been a revelation for them so he can pair w/Monty to give em 2 reliable lefties

Pine Needles: Would you start Kyle Gibson at DET tonight or Kendall Graveman vs. TEX?

Paul Sporer: Gibson

Moltar: in the h2h pts finals and am taking an all-hands streaming approach. Waivers due sunday night for next week’s starters (through thursday), care to rank Gibson (@CLE), Garret Richards (@CWS), Junis (DET), Jaime Garcia (KC)?

Paul Sporer: Richards, Garcia, Junis, Gibson

The Brink: Realistic expectation for Gibson tonight, please. Thank you.

Paul Sporer: Ideally, at least a baseline quality start. I’d say something like 5-6 IP, 3-4 ER seems reasonable

Beetle Jones: I’ve reached the semis of my H2H league and it’s so far, so good.  We do have an IP minimum – that I may not reach unless Kluber goes at least four innings Sunday.  Cleveland wouldn’t bench him this soon … would they?

Paul Sporer: Damn, that could be right on the cusp. Bc I think it’ll be a maintenance start for 3-5 IP (hopefully they just give him a set # of pitches and he beasts and gets 5 IP)

Zotto: Wtf! This isn’t MLB The Show!!!

Paul Sporer: LOL, but I do answer MLB The Show questions in here

Rasta: Godley or Paxton next year?

Paul Sporer: Paxton

Moltar: How far away is Lindor from being a top-10 player next season?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s a viable 1st rounder. That said, I think there probably 20-25 or so guys who could go in that 1st round (of a 15 tm lg) so he won’t necessarily carry 1st rd ADP.

Minty: Any keeper fantasy implication of Francisco Mejia getting promoted and then not playing at all?

Paul Sporer: Nah, a lot of times it’s just for the experience. See also: Robles, Victor. Plus Mejia is going to AFL after this

Mark: Which 2 would you keep out of Luke Weaver, Quintana, Chris Taylor, Matt Olson, Teheran?

Paul Sporer: Taylor and Olson

weezy: I am all about classic roto as preferred format, but in some of my leagues we are really losing steam with participation. Any tricks to keep people engaged when they are out of the race?

Paul Sporer: It’s tough when ppl are out of it in roto. What about something like what we discussed in an earlier question – taking away FAAB or giving top pick to the teams just outside the money instead of just the last place tm

Pine Needles: Final weekend of H2H playoffs…is Raisel Iglesias droppable (playing the BoSox this weekend) for a guy more likely to get saves like Brach (hosting Tampa) or Minor (at CWS)?

Paul Sporer: Eek, I’m not super comfortable trying to guess saves. I personally would hold Raisel. He actually has 17 of his 27 v. tms at .500 or better.

Josh: Would you roll with Miggy or Altherr this weekend?

Paul Sporer: Can’t believe we’re in a world where this is a viable question, but it is… and I’m gonna take Altherr

Minty: Follow up to Devers vs Conforto. $2 Albies, $2 F Mejia, or $3 Conforto?

Paul Sporer: Conforto, Albies, Mejia is my order.

Minty: How big of a gap is there between Bellinger and Hoskins in an OBP keeper?

Paul Sporer: a LOT smaller than I think most would want to believe bc of Bellinger’s name and prospect value

Eric: Concerned about Nelson coming off the surgery?

Paul Sporer: Definitely. This is a bad injury and I’m really bummed bc it was nice seeing Nelson breakout. I’m not drafting him in 2018.

Eric: What should I do with Urias in a keep 10 league. I know next year is likely shot, but what about the future? Lots of question marks?

Paul Sporer: Cry? That seems the best course of action here.

Paul Sporer: Jokes aside, this is an even worse injury than Nelson’s and it’s very disappointing. Hang onto him for now, but if you get in a situation where you’re up against a keeper limit and it’s him v. another viable who is healthy, I’d take the other guy even if his ceiling is a lower than what we dreamed on for Urias. Luke Weaver, for example, didn’t have the same hype, but I’d keep him over Urias.

Kyle: Would you risk starting Paxton next week @Oakland?

Paul Sporer: …….. ugh

Paul Sporer: Maybe?

Paul Sporer: i’d look for reasons NOT to

Paul Sporer: so if you have a better streamer or something, go for him

Mallex P. Keaton: Charlie Morton v. LAA tomorrow (bullpen game – Bud Norris listed as starter). Must start?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d def start him

Big Joey: You must be really scared about Conforto’s injury. I’m guessing you believe he won’t be ready by opening day? How much more do you value Trea Turner over Conforto in a keep-forever league?

Paul Sporer: I am concerned that he won’t make it for Opening Day. Even healthy, I’d value Turner a good bit ahead of Conforto. That speed is just too valuable

Willie hears ya Willie dont care: Recommendation(s) for a pitcher to stream this Sunday? I’m a little miffed on the options, and would appreciate a qualified opinion. Thanks a bunch!

Paul Sporer: I’m writing up the streamers later today

The Big Trade: 15 player keeper, do I drop J.Nelson in the offseason? His shoulder surgery has me nervous.

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m cool with it

Just a Guy: Will Piscotty return to form?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s a good buy low, yes

Matt: Do any of Cam Bredrosian, Addison Reed, or Brandon Morrow close somewhere next season?

Paul Sporer: I think at least one does

dave in slc: just picked up King Felix on waivers in an AL only keeper for $10, will he even be worth that next yr?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he’s a solid gamble for $10 in AL

Derek in Little Rock: What are your thoughts on Luiz Gohara for 2018?  I like what I’ve seen so far.  Incredible arm strength of course, and two straight starts without a walk is an encouraging surprise.

Paul Sporer: I’m a fan for sure. I think he’ll be a fun, low-dollar investment. Check out Nick’s piece: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-luiz-goharas-mlb-de…

Shuck Bowalter: Will David Price be a good starter next year?

Paul Sporer: If he’s healthy, I think he’ll be good, ya

Guest: Castillo or Weaver in 2018?

Paul Sporer: Damn… that’s a tacos or pizza question for me. A huge fan of both. Think I’ll take Castillo first, but they’ll be close

Jay: Smoak been hitting .200 for 6 weeks. Did we see the last of the good guy?

Paul Sporer: A .196 BABIP certainly doesn’t help, but the power is still there. I wouldn’t get too hung up on the sputter to the finish line just bc it’s the most recent thing we’re seeing. I know Eno’s out on him, but I think he’ll be aight

Chad: how should we view Chris Taylor in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: As a solid mid-tier asset. Full season .270/15/15 with upside of course

Moltar: Are you gonna do offseason chats? I’m in the finals until the end of the reg season but I’m already mourning the loss of fantasy baseball 🙁

Paul Sporer: Probably not EVERY week, but with regularity, yes

Schmaltitude: Can probably only keep 3 of DeGrom, Paxton, Nola, Verlander. Does JV’s resurgence get him above the younger guys?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think Paxton is the odd man out here which is tough bc his upside is so rich when healhty

Paul Sporer: healthy*

Im desperate: I know you wont put it in the queue but thank you for the help and I LOVE the podcast!!

Paul Sporer: Praise moves to the top of the queue 🙂

Paul Sporer: Jokes aside, thank you!

Paul Sporer: In fact, speaking of the podcast, I gotta get going because we’re recording today. Had to babysit my niece yesterday so I wasn’t able to record.

James C: Samardzija vs LAD tonight or Richards at HOU? Or neither?

Paul Sporer: Shark

Ben: is an $18 Rendon an easy keep over a $29 Corey Seager?

Paul Sporer: Yes, Seager isn’t $11 better

Matt: How do you value Gregory Polanco for 2018? He’s still only 26 and there’s so much to like about his skillset, but injuries seem to have completely derailed his last 1.5 seasons.

Paul Sporer: Still really like him if healthy, but that if healthy is so hard to expect. I’ll be betting on him in leagues as I expect the price will drop

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, have a good one! Follow me on Twitter (sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24). I’ll be chatting again next week!