2018 Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 4 – 6

On Wednesday I reviewed the results of the first three rounds of a new dynasty league prospect draft.  I’ll continue that review today with rounds 4 – 6, where some deeper, more interesting prospects appear.

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 1 – 3

This draft should help you “discover” a few names to keep an eye on going forward.  If you have specific questions about players or the thought process of why they were selected, fire away in the comments section, as I’ve asked each owner in the league to be on standby to provide feedback as we review the rounds.

Before I review my own thoughts on the draft, you should know this Ottoneu league uses the “FanGraphs Points” scoring system based on linear weights, so offense is heavily slanted towards wOBA skills (and speed is almost a non-factor).  We also somewhat arbitrarily removed the Top 12 overall offensive prospects to save them for the standard 40-man auction next spring.  Otherwise, any minor league player without one (1) MLB PA or IP is eligible to be drafted.  You can read more about the custom rules of this dynasty league here, and follow along with the draft here.

Many of the prospects below are also featured on the 2018 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list.

Draft Review: Rounds 4 – 6

Round 4 Best value: Jorge Mateo (4.6)

Jake Bauers (4.1)

Bauers was a strong pick to lead off the fourth round primarily because, like his teammate Brent Honeywell, he’s just a small step from making a fantasy impact in early 2018.  Bauers has been recognized for his hit tool (he finished 2017 hitting .263/.368/.412 in AAA), but the game power has always been questioned for a first baseman profile. Luckily, Bauers played over 70 games this year as an OF, so he becomes a much more interesting offensive prospect heading into next season.  As a potential OBP machine with skills that play up in this league, Bauers is plenty valuable as a prospect on the doorstep.

Michael Chavis (4.5)

Chavis, 22, rebounded nicely this year, crushing high A pitching to the tune of a 1.029 OPS in 59 games, and then slugging another 14 HR in AA.  Personally, Chavis reminds me a bit of Todd Frazier’s profile – a player with good power but limited OBP skills.  Unfortunately for Chavis, the Red Sox have another pretty good young prospect now entrenched at 3B, so Chavis may be destined for 1B (where his offensive skills would be fringe), or LF (or trade bait). Regardless, there’s enough offensive upside here that Chavis could be a big league contributor by late 2018 or early 2019.

This could make for good Rain Delay Reading. This year's #RedSox Org All-Stars highlighted by Chavis, Devers, Beeks: https://t.co/rRtXY0lRgu pic.twitter.com/wxSFAjAbtP

— Sam Dykstra (@SamDykstraMiLB) October 9, 2017

Jorge Mateo (4.6)

Mateo was my selection in the fourth, and despite always being linked to his wheels (80 grade speed), Mateo had such a nice transition to AA this year (.398 wOBA in 30 games) that I was happy to land the future CF/SS with this pick. Mateo nearly duplicated the same production (.374 wOBA in 30 games) with the bat after being traded to Oakland, so I’m encouraged that some of his ISO gains can stick going forward, which would make him a very interesting player. He could make his debut in late 2018 possibly, which is a nice bonus here.

Carter Kieboom (4.10)

I like Kieboom a lot and debated taking him over Mateo (I thought he might fall to me in the fifth).  His 2017 sample is small due to injuries, but he did serious damage when he was on the field (.404 wOBA in A ball, age 19).  He might not stick at SS long term, but if the Tulo comparisons continue next year, Kieboom could be on the rise quickly.

Sixto Sanchez (4.11)

The Phillies have an impressively deep minor league system right now with a good balance of position players and pitchers with plus fastballs.  Sanchez is on the top of that pitching list and for good reason, since he currently throws a blazing fastball with the type of solid control you don’t normally see from young guns (just 9 BB in 67 IP in A ball at age 18).  Sanchez, who just turned 19, has average height for a starting pitching (6’0″), so he may not project for much beyond a #3.  However, if his secondaries continue to improve as he continues to maintain plus command, he could be something much, much more.

Round 5 Best value: Jose Siri (5.10)

Dylan Cease (5.2)

Cease has a big arm and was a key piece in the Jose Quintana trade earlier this summer.  The “stuff” here is potentially double-plus, but Cease’s command will take some time to refine.  He’s moved to an organization with a good reputation for developing pitchers, but even if he winds up in the bullpen, he can be plenty valuable.

Christin Stewart (5.3)

Stewart was high on my own board at this point, finishing 2017 in AA after hitting 28 HR on the year.  The outfielder has been older than most top prospects at every level (he’ll likely start in AAA next year at age 24), but he clearly has plus power and is a good bet to contribute next season in DET.  Unfortunately, Stewart is a below average fielder so there is a lot of pressure on his bat to continue to develop.  With the way balls continue to jump in the game today, Stewart is one of the few bats drafted here with a chance to be a regular 30+ HR hitter at peak.  His offensive profile reminds me a bit of Curtis Granderson.

Cole Tucker (5.7)

Tucker, age 20, is a 6’3″ switch hitting shortstop prospect for PIT with speed (46 SB this season, finishing at AA).  I ignored Tucker’s speed but selected him here specifically for Eric Longenhagen’s pre-season scouting line: “Tucker’s [upside] is substantial if he can settle into the physical goldilocks zone that allows him to remain at shortstop while also growing into power.” Tucker did very little this year to damper that storybook optimism (10%+ BB% in both A+ and AA), and if he continues to make small improvements in OBP and ISO, I think he will climb the Top 100 prospect charts with a (small) chance to make his debut in PIT before his 22nd birthday.  I like Tucker quite a bit more than his infield partner Kevin Newman, which seems to be consensus as Newman wasn’t drafted in this league.

Jose Siri (5.10)

Siri had a breakout season in 2017, using a 39 game hit streak at one point to finish A ball (at age 21) with a .384 wOBA, 24 HR, and a .293/.341/.530 line (plus 46 SB).  Concerns with Siri’s aggressive approach have been compared to Nick Williams, but for me Siri’s profile reminds me somewhat of Adam Jones – a player with speed who should stick in center, hit for plenty of power, but rarely walk.  Regardless of how Siri develops going forward, this is a player with great raw tools who’s upside makes him a very solid pick late in the fifth round.  He’ll be an interesting player to watch in 2018.

Nolan Jones (5.11)

I was secretly hoping Jones would fall to me in the next round, but he was scooped up just before the 6th most likely because of a sensational 2017 campaign in low A (.424 wOBA in 62 games).  Listed at 6’4″, 185, Jones looks the part of an above average player.  He made strides defensively at third base this year, and seems to have the rare combination of a great approach (16%+ BB%) with power (.482 SLG).  If he’s not there already, you should add Jones to your watch list for 2018.  Jones may shoot up the prospect ranks very quickly.

Round 6 Best value: Yadier Alvarez (6.10)

Yusniel Diaz (6.1)

Diaz, age 20, is yet another solid OF prospect in the Dodgers organization that finished 2017 with positive reviews. Finishing strong at AA (.397 wOBA in 31 games), Diaz brings a little bit of speed and power to his game, projecting as a potential 15 HR, 15 SB threat in the majors at peak.  While that peak is still several years away, Diaz landed just inside Longenhagen’s summer Top 100 list (#97), so he’s one to keep an eye on.

Ryan Mountcastle (6.4)

As a potential shortstop in Camden Yards with above average power, Mountcastle is an attractive lottery ticket.  That said, his aggressive approach (<4% BB% in both A+ and AA this year) leaves something to be desired, so he was much lower on my list here in a league that favors OBP and SLG.  Mountcastle was still young for the league (age 20) so he has plenty of time to develop, but there aren’t many above average sluggers (regardless of position) in the majors with walk rates this low.  Mountcastle’s defense doesn’t appear to be strong enough to keep him up the middle, either.

Franklin Perez (6.6) vs. Yadier Alvarez (6.10)

Perez (traded to DET in the Justin Verlander deal) and Yadier Alvarez were the two highest starting pitchers left on my board, and I struggled mightily trying to decide between the two with this selection in the sixth round. Ultimately, I decided on Perez for a number of reasons.  First, I think he’s currently a better pitcher, meaning he not only has more weapons (potentially four average or better pitches), but his ability to sequence and command them seems a good bit better than Alvarez at this stage.  This is even more impressive when you realize Perez has only been pitching for a few years professionally (originally scouted as a 3B).  Second, Perez is nearly 18 months younger than Alvarez (both of whom finished 2017 in AA), so I added extra weight to the developmental curve here with the idea that additional projection remains with Perez.  Finally, Longenhagen ultimately dubbed him a potential “monster” who, “with a plus fastball, changeup, two complementary breaking balls and the aptitude to deploy them all in concert with one another, he could be dominant.” Consider me sold.

Here's what I wrote about Franklin Perez coming into the season. pic.twitter.com/xXiN751QiE

— Eric Longenhagen (@longenhagen) September 1, 2017

As much as I favor Perez, Alvarez (#36) still ended up twenty six spots higher on the recent Top 100 prospect list, and his higher strikeout rates (over 9.0 K/9 in both A+ and AA) and better groundball rates bode well for MLB success.  Alvarez is not nearly as polished as many scouts expected entering the 2017 season, with some now projecting him for the bullpen.  At this point I’m not sure there’s a right answer between the two, which makes for an interesting race to see which one makes their MLB debut first.

Dynasty Prospect Draft Review: Rounds 1 – 3