Low-Ownership Starters for Saturday (9/23)

Quite a few aces (and Matt Harvey) are throwing on Saturday so owners may not have many open slots but here are some lowly owned starters. While I normally limit my ownership rate to 10%, I bumped it up to increase the options.

Henderson Alvarez (1% owned) vs Braves (Julio Teheran)

Starting Alvarez is like playing Russian roulette with five chambers filled. It may kind of possibly end up good, but likely not. The basic issue is that it’s about impossible to have a feel for his talent level with spotty starts since coming back from shoulder surgery. Instead of trying to make sense of the rehab starts, I will let Steamer and Zips do the work. They put him with a near 5.00 ERA and 5.5 K/9. If those stats along with a possible Win, if he can make it five innings, against Teheran and the Braves are usable, start him.

Dylan Covey (1%) vs Royals (Danny Duffy)

Brent Suter (8% owned) vs Cubs (Kyle Hendricks)

Suter is a no-brainer for any streaming owner. Around 7.5 K/9. Winable game. And he throws an 85-mph fastball with a 9% swinging strike rate. What’s not to like. It’s like Chris Young with strikeouts.

Andrew Moore (2% owned) vs Indians (Carlos Carrasco)

If Suter is the good version of Chris Young, Moore is the evil version (28% GB% in 10 games, eight starts). The high flyball nature has kept his BABIP down (.239) but home runs up (2.1 HR/9). And he has only struck out 4.6 batters per nine. And he facing Carlos Carrasco and the Indians. The only use I see for him is to screw your “friend” over if they left their team logged on and need your “help”.

Chad Bettis (5% owned) at Padres (Jhoulys Chacin)

The matchup with San Diego points to a ‘Yes’ but my gut says ‘No’. I don’t think he’s 100% right yet. His velocity is down 2 mph since returning from cancer treatment. He was never a great pitcher before this season with a 4.83 ERA on the road (5.39 at home). Additionally, he struggled in his last start by only recording one out. I guess if an owner really needs a few strikeouts start him but otherwise keep him on the waiver wire.

Matt Boyd (10% owned) vs Twins (Ervin Santana)

Boyd nearly threw a no-hitter in his last start by allowing his only hit with two outs in the ninth inning. I dug into how the 26-year-old left pulled it off. He did by staying away from his fastball. Simply put, Boyd’s fastball is extremely home run prone (17% HR/RB rate). In games when he’s thrown his fastball under 50%, his ERA is 4.22. When his fastball usage goes over 50%, he has a 6.49 ERA.

Which Boyd should owners expect? In his last two starts (14 IP), he kept his fastball rate under 50% and allowed 1 run. Maybe he can keep it up. He has the potential for a good start. I’m not sure most of the other lowly-owned starters have potential.

Joe Biagini (5% owned) vs Yankees (Sonny Gray)

Biagini was a good reliever and then sucked as a starter. He was moved back to the bullpen where he was acceptable and is starting again and sucking (5.77 ERA as a starter and only 4.26 as a reliever). I don’t know why this start against the Yankees will be his big breakout game, so leave him alone.

Now, if an owner only needs strikeouts, he is in play with a 7.4 K/9 as a starter but he’ll kill your rate stats.

Bud Norris (16%) at Houston (Charlie Morton)

There was a reason Bud Norris moved to the bullpen, he sucked as a starter (5.81 starting ERA over the past three seasons). While he has had decent starting strikeouts (8.0 K/9), he may not throw a ton of innings in this start (2 IP in other 2017 start, 0 ER). No Win, few strikeouts. Most owners should pass. Now, since it’s likely a bullpen game, so he may be a decent play an owner near their innings limit to get a few good innings and that’s it.

Miguel Gonzalez (12%) at Oakland (Sean Manaea)

He’s a Win-only play. With a velocity drop, his strikeouts are now at 5.6 K/9 and ERA at 4.75 (estimators higher). He’s just like his previous version but worse.

Robert Stephenson (16%) vs Boston (Eduardo Rodriguez)

Like Gonzalez is a Win-only play, Stephenson is just a strikeout option with 10.0 K/9 as a starter. While the strikeouts are elite, he has a walk rate of 6.1 BB/9. Not a misprint. Stephenson’s walk rate is higher than Gonzalez’s strikeout rate.

Rankings

Suter
.
.
Boyd
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Gonzalez (Win only)
Biagini (K’s only)
Stephenson (K’s only)
Norris (owner with limited IP)
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Bettis
Alvarez
.
Moore
Covey