Starting Pitcher Chart – September 15th, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

September 15th Starter Chart
PITCHER TM OPP 10 12 15+ L5 STATS OPP wOBA L30 days NOTE
Brandon Woodruff MIL at DET x x x 3.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 20% K-BB .302 – 22nd Only real risk is short outing for IP protection
Julio Urías LAD ARI x x x 0.94 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 23% K-BB .333 – 11th Hasn’t allowed >2 ER since July 16th
Robbie Ray TOR TBR x x x 1.91 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 36% K-BB .395 – 1st Tough matchup isn’t a deterrent to all formats use
Joe Musgrove SDP at SFG x x x 3.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 16% K-BB .328 – 8th SD needs a gem for their playoff hopes
Ranger Suárez PHI CHC x x x 1.95 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 15% K-BB .318 – 14th Like Cortes Jr., has come out of ‘pen to win lgs
Huascar Ynoa ATL COL x x x 3.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 18% K-BB .322 – 13th* Curious where 85-90 strong IP puts him in ’22
Cal Quantrill CLE at MIN x x x 2.76 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 16% K-BB .324 – 11th Next big CLE gem at SP?
Néstor Cortes Jr. NYY at BAL x x x 2.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 18% K-BB .323 – 13th Wonder how many lgs he’s winning w/gems at SP
John Means BAL NYY x x x 4.13 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 18% K-BB .316 – 15th Be careful if you can’t afford a potential blowup
Sean Manaea OAK at KCR x x x 5.46 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22% K-BB .331 – 12th L2 starts rebuilt confidence to start everywhere
Marco Gonzales SEA BOS x x x 3.07 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8% K-BB .299 – 21st Best if you’re not worried about Ks at all
Vladimir Gutierrez CIN at PIT x x x 4.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 18% K-BB .294 – 26th Not risk-free, but matchup helps a lot
Antonio Senzatela COL at ATL x x 2.18 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 11% K-BB .330 – 7th Spicy matchup, but he’s held firm v. many good tms
José Urquidy HOU at TEX x x 2.78 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 13% K-BB .325 – 10th 2 sub-5 IP outings since IL return
Tylor Megill NYM STL x x 5.20 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 24% K-BB .294 – 24th 4 HR v. SF inflating L5 numbers; 23 Ks in L18 IP
Mike Minor KCR OAK x x 3.49 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 16% K-BB .302 -19th Hasn’t allowed >4 ER in any of his 9 2H starts
Tanner Houck BOS at SEA x x 4.37 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 11% K-BB .307 – 20th Heavily managed IP severely curb W upside
Trevor Rogers MIA at WAS x 5.06 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 9% K-BB .385 – 2nd Has reached 5 IP just 1x in L5 starts
Jon Lester STL at NYM x 2.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 0% K-BB .285 – 27th Skills say recent ERA is a total fraud
Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI at LAD x 3.78 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 14% K-BB .300 – 24th Sharp recent #s given L3 being v. SF 2x & LAD
Michael Wacha TBR at TOR 4.97 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 28% K-BB .355 – 2nd 3.10 ERA in L4, but this matchup is terrifying
Mitch Keller PIT CIN 4.56 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 17% K-BB .323 – 12th 2, 0, 7, 0, 4 ER in L5… feeling lucky?
Alec Mills CHC at PHI 4.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 14% K-BB .322 – 13th Lack of K upside limits usable scenarios
Josh Rogers WAS MIA 3.65 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4% K-BB .289 – 26th Shades of Peralta-Peralta from Tuesday
Matt Manning DET MIL 5.79 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 7% K-BB .331 – 5th Don’t completely forget him next yr as a $1 gamble
Dallas Keuchel CWS LAA 10.53 ERA, 2.29 WHIP, 2% K-BB .297 – 22nd Unusably bad in any format
Griffin Jax MIN CLE 8.54 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 7% K-BB .300 – 23rd HR woes (2.5 HR9) smother any potential upside
Kohei Arihara TEX HOU 10.47 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 0% K-BB .336 – 3rd Astros hitters should be eating big on Wed.
Janson Junk LAA at CWS 2.45 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 6% K-BB .332 – 4th Just his 2nd MLB start, no need to gamble
Dominic Leone SFG SDP RP being used as Opener .278 – 29th Bullpen Game
*road vR for COL





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Chris Hendrickson
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Chris Hendrickson

I like this, thank you. 🙂