Starting Pitcher Chart – September 15th, 2021

September 15, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

September 15th Starter Chart

PITCHER	TM	OPP	10	12	15+	L5 STATS	OPP wOBA L30 days	NOTE
Brandon Woodruff	MIL	at DET	x	x	x	3.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 20% K-BB	.302 – 22nd	Only real risk is short outing for IP protection
Julio Urías	LAD	ARI	x	x	x	0.94 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 23% K-BB	.333 – 11th	Hasn’t allowed >2 ER since July 16th
Robbie Ray	TOR	TBR	x	x	x	1.91 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 36% K-BB	.395 – 1st	Tough matchup isn’t a deterrent to all formats use
Joe Musgrove	SDP	at SFG	x	x	x	3.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.328 – 8th	SD needs a gem for their playoff hopes
Ranger Suárez	PHI	CHC	x	x	x	1.95 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 15% K-BB	.318 – 14th	Like Cortes Jr., has come out of ‘pen to win lgs
Huascar Ynoa	ATL	COL	x	x	x	3.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.322 – 13th*	Curious where 85-90 strong IP puts him in ’22
Cal Quantrill	CLE	at MIN	x	x	x	2.76 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.324 – 11th	Next big CLE gem at SP?
Néstor Cortes Jr.	NYY	at BAL	x	x	x	2.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.323 – 13th	Wonder how many lgs he’s winning w/gems at SP
John Means	BAL	NYY	x	x	x	4.13 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.316 – 15th	Be careful if you can’t afford a potential blowup
Sean Manaea	OAK	at KCR	x	x	x	5.46 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22% K-BB	.331 – 12th	L2 starts rebuilt confidence to start everywhere
Marco Gonzales	SEA	BOS	x	x	x	3.07 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8% K-BB	.299 – 21st	Best if you’re not worried about Ks at all
Vladimir Gutierrez	CIN	at PIT	x	x	x	4.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 18% K-BB	.294 – 26th	Not risk-free, but matchup helps a lot
Antonio Senzatela	COL	at ATL		x	x	2.18 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.330 – 7th	Spicy matchup, but he’s held firm v. many good tms
José Urquidy	HOU	at TEX		x	x	2.78 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 13% K-BB	.325 – 10th	2 sub-5 IP outings since IL return
Tylor Megill	NYM	STL		x	x	5.20 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 24% K-BB	.294 – 24th	4 HR v. SF inflating L5 numbers; 23 Ks in L18 IP
Mike Minor	KCR	OAK		x	x	3.49 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 16% K-BB	.302 -19th	Hasn’t allowed >4 ER in any of his 9 2H starts
Tanner Houck	BOS	at SEA		x	x	4.37 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 11% K-BB	.307 – 20th	Heavily managed IP severely curb W upside
Trevor Rogers	MIA	at WAS			x	5.06 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 9% K-BB	.385 – 2nd	Has reached 5 IP just 1x in L5 starts
Jon Lester	STL	at NYM			x	2.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 0% K-BB	.285 – 27th	Skills say recent ERA is a total fraud
Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI	at LAD			x	3.78 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.300 – 24th	Sharp recent #s given L3 being v. SF 2x & LAD
Michael Wacha	TBR	at TOR				4.97 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 28% K-BB	.355 – 2nd	3.10 ERA in L4, but this matchup is terrifying
Mitch Keller	PIT	CIN				4.56 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 17% K-BB	.323 – 12th	2, 0, 7, 0, 4 ER in L5… feeling lucky?
Alec Mills	CHC	at PHI				4.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 14% K-BB	.322 – 13th	Lack of K upside limits usable scenarios
Josh Rogers	WAS	MIA				3.65 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4% K-BB	.289 – 26th	Shades of Peralta-Peralta from Tuesday
Matt Manning	DET	MIL				5.79 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.331 – 5th	Don’t completely forget him next yr as a $1 gamble
Dallas Keuchel	CWS	LAA				10.53 ERA, 2.29 WHIP, 2% K-BB	.297 – 22nd	Unusably bad in any format
Griffin Jax	MIN	CLE				8.54 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 7% K-BB	.300 – 23rd	HR woes (2.5 HR9) smother any potential upside
Kohei Arihara	TEX	HOU				10.47 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 0% K-BB	.336 – 3rd	Astros hitters should be eating big on Wed.
Janson Junk	LAA	at CWS				2.45 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 6% K-BB	.332 – 4th	Just his 2nd MLB start, no need to gamble
Dominic Leone	SFG	SDP				RP being used as Opener	.278 – 29th	Bullpen Game

*road vR for COL