5 Players I’m Removing from My Draft Board
A strategy we are hearing more and more about in the fantasy community is paring down your draft board by not just highlighting your targets, but actively removing players you won’t draft. Sure, everyone has a price you would likely pay, but if you won’t even pay the max pick price on someone, you can safely remove them from your sheet. A lot of this comes down to your team building and how different players fit into it.
Do you just take “the value” on someone who fell two rounds past ADP even though it doesn’t fit your team, or do you stick with the plan? And I put value in quotes as it can be a bit of a fugazi because if you aren’t putting together a cohesive squad, what good is this perceived value? In recent years, I have read and listened to fantasy managers discuss this process, so I have started doing it myself. Here are some early round guys that just don’t fit what I am trying to do in 2022:
Salvador Perez | C, KC, 35 ADP
Last year was awesome but I just can’t pay this price. I don’t even think I’d pay his max pick of 55 at this point. He will remain a power force behind the dish, but even as a high-volume catcher, there is no shot he is logging another 665 PA. The projections are very robust, ranging from 34 to 40 HR, but that seems really aggressive. Johnny Bench and Mike Piazza are the only catchers with multiple 40+ HR seasons and I don’t see Perez joining them.
(Edit: 1st version said 30+ HR seasons… pardon the typo. There are several Cs w/2+ 30-HR seasons.)
Wander Franco | SS, TBR, 56 ADP
This is more about the depth of shortstop than anything else, but also the fact that I don’t want to pay a premium for player with 70 MLB games (admittedly 70 great games with his 127 wRC+) that didn’t feature the most bankable fantasy skills: power and speed. His carrying fantasy tools at present are his AVG and runs, two unheralded categories, but also two volatile ones. I’m not convinced on him being an SB contributor this year, either. The interesting thing is that his projected lines (high-.280s/low-.290s AVG, high-teens HR count, 8-10 SBs, 80ish RBI, and 90ish R) generally justify his ADP, but I just prefer the power-speed players available at the position a lot more.
If I don’t already have a shortstop when he is drafted, I am passing and waiting for Bobby Witt Jr. (so it’s not JUST a youth thing with Franco because Witt hasn’t even debuted), Javier Báez, or Jorge Polanco going soon after or even later for the likes of Carlos Correa, Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, or Luis Urías. This ADP just puts a huge burden on Franco to deliver immediately and be great.
Tyler O’Neill | OF, STL, 50 ADP
I know, I’ve beaten this drum plenty already, but I still had to include him because he is definitely someone I’m not getting this year. I wrote about it here and discussed it here. It’s interesting to have him on this list right after Franco since O’Neill has the carrying fantasy tools that I generally love with his power and speed, but I am just too afraid of the plate skills making this a profile I just don’t want to pay full price for this year. I could be wrong, and O’Neill is more Javy Baez than the 2017 Domingo Santana/Steven Souza Jr. comps I’ve hinted at (not saying they’re 1:1 in terms of skills, but rather comparing the statistical profiles), but that pick range – low of 36, high of 68 – just doesn’t allow any margin for error and I see a wide range of outcomes for O’Neill.
Kevin Gausman | SP, TOR, 71 ADP
Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf have their wonderful SMART system that guides their drafts and has led to a ton of success. One of their key tenets coincides with one of my favorites: avoid year 1 of big FA signings. I used to bang this drum in my old SP guides with starters specifically before I was aware of the SMART system so I’m not trying to bite Colton & The Wolfman, I just happened on something that two legends were already doing and they expand it to everyone, not just starting pitchers.
Allow a transition year and don’t buy the hype. Gausman is going back to the AL East where he consistently underwhelmed despite the obvious talent and I’m not willing to dive back in until I see something. I hope Gausman is great as he is someone I have been a fan of since the Orioles days, but I can’t pay the premium. He was 18th in my initial SP rankings, but he has been moved down and you will see that on my second run of rankings (coming in the next few weeks).
Myles Straw | OF, CLE, 127 ADP
See also: Smith, Mallex. I just don’t draft rabbit base stealers. That is probably the one player type I have consistently crossed off my player lists the last few years after buying in on Billy Hamilton with a bit of regularity in the 2014-2018 range. My issue is the colossal hit in power these guys deliver. It’s not that you can’t find a winning build with these players, but they put such a burden on the power output from the rest of your roster and I don’t think it’s cancelled out by the SB upside.
You need 22 HR per offensive slot to finish top 50% in the 12-team leagues at the NFBC. Not everyone plays in leagues with an overall component where balance is a must, but even outside of those setups, I still don’t have interest in these rabbits at the draft table. I find them much more useful as in-season acquisitions once you have an idea how much such a speed burst can help while also establishing your power base, though that is limited to trading leagues. There is no trading in NFBC leagues so you either get them at the draft or hope to pluck one off the wire.
Dylan Cease | SP, CWS, Who cares… I won’t do it!
Hi, Nick Pollack here and I’m here to talk to you ab—
NICK!!
Ahhh, he caught me. OK, PL7 is live tomorrow, check it outtttt!!! :voice fades as Nick is escorted off the premises:
Sorry about that, y’all. Nick didn’t think 44 hours of blasting Cease was enough, so he tried to commandeer my article! For some reason I can’t even delete the part he wrote, either!
Anyway, Cease is not on my DND list and you should absolutely check out PitcherList 7.0 going live on February 8th!
DYLAN CEASE STILL NEEDS TO FIGURE OUT HIS FASTBALL COMMAND!
YOU CAN’T STOP ME
So, um….backstory?
cease with actual fastball command is a top ten, maybe top 5 SP lol, his stuff is just crazy
If he could just cease these command issues he’d be excellent
O’Neill is such a tough one. Normally, I wouldn’t trust a guy with a 31.3 K%, but he had a .279 xBA despite that. I assume that’s cause he simply hits the ball so hard that it goes directly through fielders’ gloves. I’m willing to buy in but I get people being completely out.
An interesting list Paul, with many considerations to take away. I love your articles, so the next statement is not a criticism. I don’t doubt that first year FA signings are less valuable in drafts, but I would love to look at a study of many of these signings in an attempt to quantify this. Kevin Gausman going into the AL East from San Francisco seems like a very logical regression based upon the offenses he will face and home park.
I’ll reach out to Glenn and Rick to see if they have tracked the data and if not, perhaps it’s time for me to update the research bc I last dove into it in like 2014-15.
Wander feels like 2021 Vlad… the 1.1 ceiling is too enticing, sometimes you just gotta gamble, rather a year early than a year late etc etc
It’s more Vlad 2020 for me where I think it is a year early, but I hear you in that it COULD be he jumps the Vlad trajectory by a year and then someone has a 1st rounder hitting .330 for them. If SS wasn’t SOOO rich, I’d be more open to taking that shot
Wander will be good, but he always sort of felt like a better player in obp and/or real life.
Franco has nowhere near the raw hitting pedigree that Vlad had. Franco’s 80 FV grade has just as much to do with his certainty as it has to do with his ceiling. I’d bet an entire paycheck that Franco never does anything resembling Vlad’s 2021 from a fantasy perspective.
Absolutely agree. Wander Franco will not be within a mile of Vladdy. I agree with Paul. I like him but I can’t draft him at his price. For one thing he is not a base stealer. Lousy % when he does try and simply doesn’t run much.
You think he has 1.1 ceiling? Based on what? Sell me some of that hopium!?
Trea Turner 28HR, 32SB, .328 AVG, 107 runs, 77 RBI, .911 OPS in 148 games
Wander Franco 15HR, 4SB, .288 AVG, 112 runs, 82 RBI, .810 OPS in 70 games, prorated to 148 to compare against Trea
so you think he can add 40 points of batting average, double his HR rate, and 7x his SB rate? And you’re willing to think that the odds of that happening are real enough to take it over a guy that has actually done it? And his name isn’t Mike Trout? What am I missing?
I mean I agree. A lot of the hype surrounding Wander was based on the IRL player he was going to be, where as I never saw it from a fantasy perspective. Lets say he hits .300, def possible. Lets say he pops 20 hrs, def possible. But it doesn’t look like he is going to be running a lot, but lets say he all of a sudden steals 20 bases. He should probably get a lot of runs based off of his discipline…but even still. That is nowhere near a 1.1. Crazier things have happened, but I just don’t see him becoming a 30-30 guy, ever.
Sure, if you truly believe a fully broken-out Wander is only capable of “maybe .300” and “maybe 20 HRs”, I can see why you would think that.
There are very few .300 hitters in baseball.
Yes, which just makes Franco’s 80 grade hit tool more enticing? I don’t get your point. He has “best hitter in the league” as a ceiling.
But “best hitter in baseball” isn’t going to necessarily translate to 40+ HR, or 120+ RBI, or 30+ SB, or other things that might better comport with a 1.1 ranking
There generally isn’t enough competition for 1.1 for all or even most of those marks to be fully necessary. I think a full Franco breakout could look a lot like Soto’s 2021, maybe with ~10-15 more points of BA and 5 fewer HRs. Soto isn’t 1.1 this year but I would be perfectly happy with 1.3 or 1.4 value in the 4th round. I’d be happy with 1.12 value. I probably shouldn’t have said “1.1.” Only name I mentioned is Vlad, and it’s not like he has to be 1.1 right now to have been a massive value pick in the 3rd/4th round last year.
A lot also depends on position too. If the Rays play him around the IF and he gathers 3B/2B eligibility along with a power breakout, I could see him in the mix for 1.1.
I doubt he will even steal 10 bases this year. They won’t want a poor % base stealer running them out of innings.
You are certainly making a lot of assumptions about the future of one of the greatest prospects ever based on 300 plate appearances at age 20. Also making a lot of assumptions about Turner’s age 29 season based on his age 28 season – only his second season ever where he stayed healthy for more than 122 games, and his first season ever hitting the 20 HR mark.
No, Wander probably isn’t going to steal more bases than Soto will, but he doesn’t necessarily need to to be a top fantasy talent. He had one of the lowest K% in the majors at age 20 and, according to both FG and BA, is potentially one swing tweak away from accessing his power much better. He could break into a .340/30/120/100/10 type and no one would be surprised. He could also be a .290/15/120/80/5 type. I said “ceiling,” not “something that is absolutely going to happen.” People are acting like I’m advocating taking him 1.1 and not in the 4th round where he’s going.
I get the O’Neill comps in terms of offense, but Domingo and Souza were both big liabilities on defense, so their warts on offense got them benched. O’Neill does not seem o have that problem, and he can regress a bit and still get the PT to get you a 35/15 season. That and the fact that he was clearly still doing some adjusting last year makes me think that if the price is just for a repeat of 2021 (which is closeish to where his projections are unless you are in a B.A league) I will pay it.
Very good call out on the defense, it definitely lessened their margin for error
The thing that’s bonkers about Perez’ season are the expected homers:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/salvador-perez-521692?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#xhr-park
Even acknowledging the flaws in expected HRs, that is still so awesome lol
I’m going to go ahead and say this one would have been out of all 30 parks…
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=a6e6f27a-9616-4c8d-b191-22f82defc9da
I love the crowd noise on that one, the audible “woah” when he makes contact.
Positively destroyed!!!!
Javy Lopez, Mickey Tettleton, Gary Carter, Lance Parrish, Yogi Berra, and Roy Campanella also had multiple 30+ HR seasons.
Oh ya, they were awesome. It was MORE than 1 for Bench & Piazza
They all had more than one.
Ohhh I misread you and misread my Stathead search earlier today it seems loool
Edit: It’s 40 HR seasons. I’m so sorry.
Ah, that makes way more sense! Thanks for correcting it!
Great fan of Nick Pollack…awesome cameo here! Made me smile. Thanks for the work, always appreciated.
I’d like to see the “I finally removed from my draft board” article, ie, players you are finally giving up on. I was drafting Matt Wieters like 7 or 8 years in a row, certain that a breakout was finally coming. I feel I’m in the same boat now with Manuel Margot. “Kiermaier will get traded or hurt” keeps justifying me in thinking that a full time gig followed by a breakout is coming, and it never comes. He doesn’t strikeout, so when a possible .280/20HR/30SB slips to the 250s in ADP, I keep biting. And now he’s 28. So I think I am removing him from my draft board entirely, just to keep from making the same mistake over and over.
O’neil is the only one I don’t fully agree with. But I’d still probably not take him at 50 unless my first couple rounds went incredibly strangely. Salvy seems like an incredibly easy fade, but man has he crushed the ball the last couple years and he seems like an everyday player between C/DH) especially with Melendez on the horizon, so I could see me being wrong, but no way am I picking him 35 to find out.
Poor Jake and Dr. Dave. They’re gonna get excited at the article title only to see Myles Straw as one of the players.
Love the article. I stopped cluttering up my lists with players I would never draft, a few years ago. The key obviously, is never drafting them anywhere close to their current ADP/auction values. And Bingo….Sal Perez and Wander are not on my list. ( ok Wander is there but I will never get him). I’m a Yankee fan, love Aaron Judge but he is not on my lists. Just can’t trust him to be healthy. But I already have shares of Tyler O’Neil. Average might slip but still a real good hitter. At any rate the concept of removing players from your list is one I believe in. Less clutter. Nice job Paul.
I play in a couple total points leagues and even in these leagues I agree with not drafting Perez and O’Neill because they k way too much. I would have to disagree with your rankings at SS and this article of having SS Baez over Franco in any league roto or points.
It’s funny I started the offseason with the same views on Sal and have done a full 180. The thing about Sal is he doesn’t need to be 2021 Sal to justify ADP. He doesn’t even need to meet his projections to justify adp. His projection currently has him as a top 20 player. In fact, Sal already had a season prior to 2021 where he would have justified his current adp. When I change his projection to that of his 2016 stat line my SGP has him ranked 35, same as adp. I like when a player is profitable simply by meeting projections, and can be profitable even while falling well short.
This might be (or almost certainly is) my misunderstanding of the inner workings of projections, but that just doesn’t add up. It’s just the colossal position adjustment for C, right? I’d be livid if I drafted Perez and got a .247/22/64/57 line.