Outfielder ADP Market Report: 3/3/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

George Springer (+6.89)- Springer’s rise in ADP is tied to his signing in Toronto. He is expected to lead off for the Blue Jays in front of a young, power packed lineup. With the Blue Jays playing in Dunedin and Buffalo, he has great park factors as well. I was able to grab Springer in the fourth round in TGFBI and was pretty stoked to do so. 

Top 100 Players Falling

Trent Grisham (-11.63)- Grisham is falling as fear of him platooning or dropping in the lineup against right handers lowers his ceiling. Grisham was great in 2020, hitting 10 home runs and stealing 10 bases with a .251 batting average. His work versus lefties was buoyed by a .370 BABIP, which is concerning. If he can stay on top of the lineup, he could be a monster, but there is risk here at a price where you can’t really afford to miss. 

Top 200 Players Rising

Eddie Rosario (+20.48)- Rosario is rising after signing a deal in Cleveland. With the state of the Cleveland outfield, he is guaranteed full playing time. He appears to be an underrated as a power hitter that doesn’t hurt you in batting average. However, he got lucky last year in both average and homers and without even league average exit velocity or barrel percentage, a deadened ball could hurt him more than others. 

Kyle Schwarber (+12.35)- Schwarber is coming off of a disappointing season where he hit just .188/.308/.393 with 11 home runs. However, his BABIP was .219 which was way below his career BABIP of .267. His exit velocity was in the 95th percentile, his hard hit percentage was in the 86th percentile and his barrel percentage was in the 75th percentile. He should bounceback in the middle of a good lineup in Washington. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Dylan Moore (-17.31)- See the article in this series on second basemen.

Dominic Smith (-27.58)- See the article in this series on first basemen. 

Kyle Lewis (-13)- Lewis is dropping over concerns about how he finished the season. He hit .368 with seven home runs in the first half and a paltry .150 with four home runs in the second half. Lewis is a former top prospect with good power and speed, but also a long track record of injuries which adds to the risk. With the outfield being so deep, it’s hard to take that gamble even with the price dropping. 

Victor Reyes (-19.42)- Reyes is dropping due to playing time concerns after the signings of Jonathan Schoop, Renato Nunez, Nomar Mazara and Robbie Grossman has pushed him to the bench. He should still be on the short side of the platoon and he has enough pop to play with a good hit tool and speed, but he needs an injury to make a real impact. He is worth rostering in a draft and hold or leagues with larger benches where stashing makes sense. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Ramiel Tapia (+46.01)- Tapia is rising up the ADP in large part because he offers three categories that are the hardest to come by in runs, stolen bases and average. He is expected to lead off for the Rockies and with guys like Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon hitting behind him, he should rack up the runs. He is a former top prospect and now that he is a bit older, maybe the Rockies won’t play games with his playing time. His price is still pretty good and he is worth it. 

Mitch Haniger (+23.25)- I love Mitch Haniger, but the guy can not stay healthy. If he was able to stay on the field, he would likely be a lock for 25/10 and maybe more, but at this point it is really hard to trust. Even with the rise, he is still very affordable, but if the price continues to rise, he won’t be worth the risk. 

Joc Pederson (+79.9)- Pederson is rising after signing in Chicago. He is expected to at least be a strong side platoon outfielder with the Cubs and hit in the middle of what is still a pretty good lineup in Chicago. His upside is somewhat capped due to his struggles against lefties, but there is a chance the Cubs let him steal more than the Dodgers did in spite of the fact he does not have a great success rate over the course of his career. I still have a soft spot for Pederson, but it’s not likely he has a huge season. 

Avisail Garcia (+20.6)- Garcia was rising because he was an underrated asset with full time playing time. However, as I was writing this piece, the Brewers signed Jackie Bradley Jr. which will put Garcia on the short side of a platoon at best. We can now ignore his rise because he is bound to fall again. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Randal Grichuk (-49.52)- Grichuk is falling due to playtime concerns after the signing of George Springer. Girchuk looks to be on the short side of a platoon with Rowdy Tellez. With the Blue Jays being very right handed, Grichuk needs an injury or a trade to open up playing time in order for him to get enough playing time to make a major impact for fantasy owners, but if he does, he would be joining one of the most stacked offenses in baseball with a lot of upside. 

J.D. Davis (-24.73)- Davis was a popular sleeper coming into 2020 but he disappointed and now with roster crunch and his inability to play defense, he could find himself sitting more than he did last season. There is power in the bat, but the drop in price is reflective of the concerns that are present with him. 

Jurickson Profar (-47.22)- Profar is dropping after resigning to a stacked Padres team where playing time may be a big concern. With the DH looking like it is not happening this year, Profar is on the outside looking in for playing time which is weird considering they gave him a two-year deal worth $15 million. He needs an injury to break into this lineup full time and probably should be avoided for now.