Outfielder ADP Market Report: 3/3/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

 

Top 100 Players Rising

George Springer (+6.89)- Springer’s rise in ADP is tied to his signing in Toronto. He is expected to lead off for the Blue Jays in front of a young, power packed lineup. With the Blue Jays playing in Dunedin and Buffalo, he has great park factors as well. I was able to grab Springer in the fourth round in TGFBI and was pretty stoked to do so. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

Trent Grisham (-11.63)- Grisham is falling as fear of him platooning or dropping in the lineup against right handers lowers his ceiling. Grisham was great in 2020, hitting 10 home runs and stealing 10 bases with a .251 batting average. His work versus lefties was buoyed by a .370 BABIP, which is concerning. If he can stay on top of the lineup, he could be a monster, but there is risk here at a price where you can’t really afford to miss. 

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Eddie Rosario (+20.48)- Rosario is rising after signing a deal in Cleveland. With the state of the Cleveland outfield, he is guaranteed full playing time. He appears to be an underrated as a power hitter that doesn’t hurt you in batting average. However, he got lucky last year in both average and homers and without even league average exit velocity or barrel percentage, a deadened ball could hurt him more than others. 

 

Kyle Schwarber (+12.35)- Schwarber is coming off of a disappointing season where he hit just .188/.308/.393 with 11 home runs. However, his BABIP was .219 which was way below his career BABIP of .267. His exit velocity was in the 95th percentile, his hard hit percentage was in the 86th percentile and his barrel percentage was in the 75th percentile. He should bounceback in the middle of a good lineup in Washington. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Dylan Moore (-17.31)- See the article in this series on second basemen.

Dominic Smith (-27.58)- See the article in this series on first basemen. 

Kyle Lewis (-13)- Lewis is dropping over concerns about how he finished the season. He hit .368 with seven home runs in the first half and a paltry .150 with four home runs in the second half. Lewis is a former top prospect with good power and speed, but also a long track record of injuries which adds to the risk. With the outfield being so deep, it’s hard to take that gamble even with the price dropping. 

Victor Reyes (-19.42)- Reyes is dropping due to playing time concerns after the signings of Jonathan Schoop, Renato Nunez, Nomar Mazara and Robbie Grossman has pushed him to the bench. He should still be on the short side of the platoon and he has enough pop to play with a good hit tool and speed, but he needs an injury to make a real impact. He is worth rostering in a draft and hold or leagues with larger benches where stashing makes sense. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Ramiel Tapia (+46.01)- Tapia is rising up the ADP in large part because he offers three categories that are the hardest to come by in runs, stolen bases and average. He is expected to lead off for the Rockies and with guys like Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon hitting behind him, he should rack up the runs. He is a former top prospect and now that he is a bit older, maybe the Rockies won’t play games with his playing time. His price is still pretty good and he is worth it. 

Mitch Haniger (+23.25)- I love Mitch Haniger, but the guy can not stay healthy. If he was able to stay on the field, he would likely be a lock for 25/10 and maybe more, but at this point it is really hard to trust. Even with the rise, he is still very affordable, but if the price continues to rise, he won’t be worth the risk. 

Joc Pederson (+79.9)- Pederson is rising after signing in Chicago. He is expected to at least be a strong side platoon outfielder with the Cubs and hit in the middle of what is still a pretty good lineup in Chicago. His upside is somewhat capped due to his struggles against lefties, but there is a chance the Cubs let him steal more than the Dodgers did in spite of the fact he does not have a great success rate over the course of his career. I still have a soft spot for Pederson, but it’s not likely he has a huge season. 

Avisail Garcia (+20.6)- Garcia was rising because he was an underrated asset with full time playing time. However, as I was writing this piece, the Brewers signed Jackie Bradley Jr. which will put Garcia on the short side of a platoon at best. We can now ignore his rise because he is bound to fall again. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Randal Grichuk (-49.52)- Grichuk is falling due to playtime concerns after the signing of George Springer. Girchuk looks to be on the short side of a platoon with Rowdy Tellez. With the Blue Jays being very right handed, Grichuk needs an injury or a trade to open up playing time in order for him to get enough playing time to make a major impact for fantasy owners, but if he does, he would be joining one of the most stacked offenses in baseball with a lot of upside. 

J.D. Davis (-24.73)- Davis was a popular sleeper coming into 2020 but he disappointed and now with roster crunch and his inability to play defense, he could find himself sitting more than he did last season. There is power in the bat, but the drop in price is reflective of the concerns that are present with him. 

Jurickson Profar (-47.22)- Profar is dropping after resigning to a stacked Padres team where playing time may be a big concern. With the DH looking like it is not happening this year, Profar is on the outside looking in for playing time which is weird considering they gave him a two-year deal worth $15 million. He needs an injury to break into this lineup full time and probably should be avoided for now. 

 

Outfielder ADP Market Report: 3/3/21
1/26/21-3/3/21 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/20-10/31/20 11/1/20-11/30/20 12/1/20-1/25/21 Change
2.03 Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL OF 1.75 1.52 1.48 -0.55
4.05 Juan Soto WAS OF 4.25 4.63 4.42 0.37
4.62 Mookie Betts LAD OF 4 2.89 3.33 -1.29
7.32 Mike Trout LAA OF 5.5 5.41 6.96 -0.36
12.27 Christian Yelich MLW OF 11 11.33 12.21 -0.06
17.51 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B, OF 16 14.52 15.54 -1.97
19.79 Bryce Harper PHI OF 19.75 20.52 21.06 1.27
29.17 Kyle Tucker HOU OF 29 32.74 27.35 -1.82
34.27 Luis Robert CWS OF 36.25 34.26 32.58 -1.69
36.94 Eloy Jimenez CWS OF 44.5 40.04 38.88 1.94
39.13 Whit Merrifield KC 2B, OF 47.5 42.26 38.73 -0.4
46.44 Starling Marte MIA OF 54.5 50.74 47.17 0.73
49.67 George Springer HOU OF 61 60.15 56.56 6.89
50.67 Marcell Ozuna ATL OF 42.25 45 49.63 -1.04
53.68 Randy Arozarena TB OF 61 56.19 58.5 4.82
64.02 Cavan Biggio TOR 2B, 3B, OF 57 55.41 57.04 -6.98
64.98 Aaron Judge NYY OF 51.25 53.89 63.83 -1.15
65.9 Trent Grisham SD OF 56.25 58.85 54.27 -11.63
73.38 Brandon Lowe TB 2B, OF 81 70.78 72.5 -0.88
74.22 Michael Conforto NYM OF 82 79.52 79.98 5.76
82.95 Nick Castellanos CIN OF 79.75 83.44 89.02 6.07
83.44 Teoscar Hernandez TOR OF 71.75 66.63 74.58 -8.86
89.32 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR OF 100.5 92.26 81.46 -7.86
89.76 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B, 3B, OF 109.25 97.7 94.44 4.68
95.81 Austin Meadows TB OF 89.25 88.93 94.79 -1.02
99.87 Charlie Blackmon COL OF 91.75 93.67 101.29 1.42
104.46 Eddie Rosario MIN OF 122.25 112.81 124.94 20.48
109.78 Byron Buxton MIN OF 132.25 120.67 108.79 -0.99
126 Tommy Edman STL 2B, 3B, SS, OF 133.75 145.04 126.35 0.35
127.41 Dylan Moore SEA 2B, OF 136 113.11 110.1 -17.31
127.7 Tommy Pham SD OF 109.75 117.04 117.29 -10.41
129.83 Alex Verdugo BOS OF 129.25 125.96 124.35 -5.48
135.78 Wil Myers SD OF 123.75 124.41 135 -0.78
136.75 Dominic Smith NYM 1B, OF 99 87.81 109.17 -27.58
138.27 Ramon Laureano OAK OF 132.25 144.22 137.38 -0.89
142.83 Victor Robles WAS OF 149.25 162.85 147.54 4.71
142.98 Dylan Carlson STL OF 143.75 141.56 132.17 -10.81
146.02 Michael Brantley HOU OF 160 163.52 155.96 9.94
146.67 Kyle Lewis SEA OF 108.75 106.26 133.67 -13
148.06 Mike Yastrzemski SF OF 120.5 130.59 142.96 -5.1
153.29 Jorge Soler KC OF 149.25 150.07 154.94 1.65
155.78 Anthony Santander BAL OF 168 164.26 158.69 2.91
162.46 Daulton Varsho ARZ C, OF 211 183.74 150.58 -11.88
163.92 Nick Solak TEX 2B, OF 178.25 175.07 159.23 -4.69
164.98 Ian Happ CHC OF 160.75 165.56 163.04 -1.94
170.17 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B, OF 149 138.3 158.6 -11.57
173.94 Joey Gallo TEX OF 179.5 165.7 171.67 -2.27
176.84 Leody Taveras TEX OF 229 228.26 179.81 2.97
183.79 Clint Frazier NYY OF 168.25 173.78 190.58 6.79
187.44 Kyle Schwarber CHC OF 199.25 193.89 199.79 12.35
189.75 Trey Mancini BAL 1B, OF 224.25 200.63 194.13 4.38
195.3 Andrew McCutchen PHI OF 211.25 208.07 200.33 5.03
196.52 Victor Reyes DET OF 204.25 197.85 177.1 -19.42
196.75 Max Kepler MIN OF 191.75 179.89 194.63 -2.12
200.73 AJ Pollock LAD OF 232.75 209.59 218.96 18.23
214.63 Jesse Winker CIN OF 205.75 204.52 220.35 5.72
222.73 Chris Taylor LAD 2B, SS, OF 250 232 230.02 7.29
223.27 Jarred Kelenic SEA OF 199.25 203.89 224.46 1.19
228 Andrew Benintendi BOS OF 211.5 225.33 236.38 8.38
231.68 Raimel Tapia COL OF 283 298.93 252.92 21.24
232.52 Austin Hays BAL OF 228.5 235 219.08 -13.44
235.97 Lorenzo Cain MLW OF 262.75 239.07 235.21 -0.76
236.65 Randal Grichuk TOR OF 190.25 191.59 187.13 -49.52
238.46 Hunter Dozier KC 1B, OF 232.75 241.56 234.29 -4.17
244.98 J.D. Davis NYM 3B, OF 207.25 210.48 220.25 -24.73
245.4 Manuel Margot TB OF 287 251.15 250.31 4.91
252.62 Jurickson Profar SD 2B, OF 194.75 207.48 205.4 -47.22
254.19 Garrett Hampson COL 2B, OF 260.25 264.3 272.94 18.75
254.56 Jon Berti MIA 2B, OF 249 248.15 241.44 -13.12
264.95 Kole Calhoun ARZ OF 262.75 264.93 267.92 2.97
265.24 Nick Senzel CIN OF 261.75 255 268.44 3.2
265.86 Alex Kirilloff MIN OF 294.25 319.48 275.08 9.22
266.17 Mark Canha OAK OF 275.75 278.74 275.02 8.85
271.19 Mitch Haniger SEA OF 325.25 297.56 294.44 23.25
271.29 Brandon Nimmo NYM OF 269.75 249.59 265.73 -5.56
273.57 Aaron Hicks NYY OF 286.75 280.93 274.48 0.91
273.86 David Peralta ARZ OF 320.75 277.22 273.02 -0.84
278.06 Mauricio Dubon SF 2B, SS, OF 347.5 311.37 282.9 4.84
283.14 Bryan Reynolds PIT OF 307.5 299.52 269.77 -13.37
284.79 Joc Pederson CHC OF 408 408.59 364.69 79.9
297.11 Avisail Garcia MLW OF 378.5 355.22 317.71 20.6
308.54 Scott Kingery PHI 2B, OF 271 334.7 279.25 -29.29
314.16 Yasiel Puig ATL OF 287 254.48 239.48 -74.68
314.33 Alex Dickerson SF OF 395.25 352.74 328.38 14.05
317.06 Justin Upton LAA OF 425.75 413.41 326.81 9.75
323.05 David Dahl COL OF 271.25 307.67 303.44 -19.61
328.13 Sam Hilliard COL OF 414.75 408.11 352.54 24.41
328.9 Corey Dickerson MIA OF 364 356.56 333.04 4.14
333.97 Adam Eaton WAS OF 365.75 436.37 330.79 -3.18
338.08 Willie Calhoun TEX OF 314.5 309.22 330.35 -7.73
344.49 Franchy Cordero KC OF 396.25 415.63 365.33 20.84
347.4 Jackie Bradley Jr. BOS OF 386.75 365.74 341.31 -6.09
348.13 Oscar Mercado CLE OF 360.25 370.11 367.1 18.97
351.87 Robbie Grossman OAK OF 378.5 437.15 412.83 60.96
352.67 Myles Straw HOU OF 487.25 497.67 463.75 111.08
359.38 Josh Naylor CLE OF 421.25 426.3 368.19 8.81
359.49 Adam Duvall ATL OF 316 319.52 392.83 33.34
361.59 Hunter Renfroe TB OF 505.25 521.74 387.19 25.6
372.51 Kike Hernandez LAD 2B, OF 560.5 547.26 472.25 99.74
382.59 Harrison Bader STL OF 467.5 512.37 427.85 45.26
383.11 Cristian Pache ATL OF 383 373.85 383.4 0.29
385.24 Kevin Pillar COL OF 287.5 344.44 325.04 -60.2
388.32 JaCoby Jones DET OF 362.75 399.74 385.35 -2.97
393.9 Shogo Akiyama CIN OF 368.5 389.19 390.48 -3.42
396.73 Tyler O’Neill STL OF 494.75 482.04 449.54 52.81
403.41 Jason Heyward CHC OF 442 435.59 413.85 10.44
403.44 Jo Adell LAA OF 245.25 269.3 346.71 -56.73
410.3 Gregory Polanco PIT OF 428 431.59 390.56 -19.74
413.33 Austin Slater SF OF 361.75 338.59 351.15 -62.18
413.63 Stephen Piscotty OAK OF 474 478.7 435.08 21.45
429.25 Cedric Mullins BAL OF 315.25 389.11 410.35 -18.9
431.54 Michael Chavis BOS 1B, 2B, OF 372 389.37 382.96 -48.58
433.21 Adam Frazier PIT 2B, OF 498.75 498.81 447.44 14.23
436.35 Marwin Gonzalez MIN 1B, 2B, 3B, OF 471.75 478.33 472.15 35.8
437.79 Kevin Kiermaier TB OF 421.25 482.11 441.9 4.11
447.83 Yoshi Tsutsugo TB 3B, OF 471 503.33 466.31 18.48
451.25 Edward Olivares KC OF 420 468.78 439.85 -11.4
459.49 Roman Quinn PHI OF 422 486.48 436.73 -22.76
478.81 DJ Stewart BAL OF 528.25 525.22 478.31 -0.5
482.76 Nomar Mazara DET OF 458.25 495.11 500.13 17.37
485.13 Jared Oliva PIT OF 433.5 476.26 470.71 -14.42
497.05 Michael A. Taylor WAS OF 659.5 731.67 527.88 30.83
503.62 Tim Locastro ARZ OF 610.25 602.74 530.15 26.53
509.87 Miguel Andujar NYY OF 422.75 470.56 464.38 -45.49
516 Andrew Stevenson WAS OF 438.75 435.11 429.92 -86.08
529.63 Dexter Fowler STL OF 670.25 702.78 624.71 95.08
534.75 Anthony Alford PIT OF 686.25 715.15 631.02 96.27
535.24 Shin-Soo Choo TEX OF 452.5 459.56 488.33 -46.91
549.11 Brandon Marsh LAA OF 526.75 598.89 538 -11.11
550.14 Mike Tauchman NYY OF 502.25 572.11 520.85 -29.29
557.65 Brett Gardner NYY OF 585.25 634.59 616.06 58.41
571.44 Aristides Aquino CIN OF 554.25 577.15 564.08 -7.36
581.56 Lewis Brinson MIA OF 512 588.3 532.75 -48.81
584.13 Jarren Duran BOS OF 573 631.48 655.27 71.14
587.81 Ian Desmond COL OF 598.5 613.59 575 -12.81
590.19 Jake Bauers CLE 1B, OF 739.75 728.74 595.31 5.12
601.08 Dee Strange-Gordon SEA 2B, OF 743.25 717.52 723.44 122.36
605.95 Daniel Johnson CLE OF NA 735.37 628.13 22.18
612.22 Brent Rooker MIN OF 632.25 685.3 614.31 2.09
614.94 Lane Thomas STL OF 661 677.59 624.75 9.81
615.52 Cole Tucker PIT OF 606.25 683.85 631.69 16.17
615.65 Julio Rodriguez SEA OF 463.25 550.96 607.56 -8.09
619.22 Ender Inciarte ATL OF 695.5 714.7 643.1 23.88
624.6 Monte Harrison MIA OF 491.5 593.59 595.63 -28.97
626.57 Adam Engel CWS OF 740.25 722.04 659.56 32.99
639.76 Brian Goodwin CIN OF 710.75 687.33 693.19 53.43
641.71 Drew Waters ATL OF 642 649.44 598.54 -43.17
644.54 Adam Haseley PHI OF 715.5 688.56 648.46 3.92
645.86 Jake Cave MIN OF NA 738.93 685.52 39.66
658.81 Josh Lowe TB OF 620 629.33 651.13 -7.68
661.97 Jake Fraley SEA OF 584.75 653.78 643.08 -18.89
662.29 Bradley Zimmer CLE OF 745 747.93 640.94 -21.35
664.75 Trevor Larnach MIN OF NA 706.63 670.17 5.42
674.92 Jose Marmolejos SEA OF 664.25 711.33 715.42 40.5
681.68 Jay Bruce PHI OF 732 741.44 745.33 63.65
684.76 Magneuris Sierra MIA OF 642.75 669.74 668 -16.76
695.1 Delino DeShields CLE OF 650 658.7 725.77 30.67
696.48 Taylor Ward LAA OF 703.75 705.11 651.58 -44.9
700.86 Josh Reddick HOU OF 573 636.63 675.42 -25.44
701.49 Taylor Trammell SEA OF 668.25 661.22 685.19 -16.3
702.76 Mallex Smith SEA OF 657 652.44 662.31 -40.45
705.7 JJ Bleday MIA OF 736.75 710.15 695.56 -10.14
707.65 Ryan Braun MLW OF 514.75 607.07 585.23 -122.42
709.56 Darin Ruf SF OF 683.75 715.37 709.94 0.38
714.25 Daz Cameron DET OF 659.5 688.85 674.35 -39.9
716.25 Derek Fisher TOR OF 745.25 750.89 738.35 22.1
722.11 Pedro Leon FA OF NA NA 740.44 18.33
725.79 Sam Haggerty SEA OF 533.25 640.15 674.1 -51.69
727.86 Khalil Lee KC OF 742.75 728.63 696.58 -31.28
728.56 Jake Marisnick NYM OF 747.75 750 750.67 22.11
728.7 Steven Souza Jr. CHC OF NA NA NA NA
729.51 Yoelkis Cespedes CWS OF 745.9 NA 745.9 16.39
730.71 Odubel Herrera PHI OF NA NA NA NA
733.14 Harold Castro DET OF 713.75 682.89 724.52 -8.62
733.78 Jordan Luplow CLE OF NA NA 748.63 14.85
735.98 Albert Almora Jr. CHC OF 743.75 NA 750.52 14.54
736.02 Braden Bishop SEA OF NA NA 750.96 14.94
737.3 Tim Lopes MLW OF NA NA NA NA
737.49 Christin Stewart DET OF NA 731.04 715.02 -22.47
737.63 Tim Lopes SEA OF 665.75 714.85 720.1 -17.53
738.37 Yairo Munoz BOS OF 597 670.48 710.58 -27.79
739.21 Tyler Naquin CLE OF 681.25 662.89 708.21 -31
740.44 Brock Holt WAS 3B, OF NA 748.96 NA NA
741.67 Heliot Ramos SF OF 687 736.52 745.5 3.83
741.84 Jesus Sanchez MIA OF 750 732.11 728.48 -13.36
742.19 Jorge Mateo SD OF 727.25 728.78 735.1 -7.09
744.33 Nick Markakis ATL OF 722 721.89 741.5 -2.83
744.54 Greg Allen SD OF 747.25 749.78 744.4 -0.14
745.13 Brian O’Grady SD OF NA NA 741.27 -3.86
745.21 Travis Swaggerty PIT OF NA NA NA NA
745.46 Oscar Colas FA OF NA NA 724.98 -20.48
745.57 Jaylin Davis SF OF NA 743.7 743.29 -2.28
745.76 Cameron Maybin CHC OF 749.25 745.63 748.63 2.87
745.95 Na Sung-bum FA OF NA 695.63 643.79 -102.16
746.14 Nick Heath KC OF NA NA NA NA
746.35 Brett Phillips TB OF 727.5 748.85 746.04 -0.31
746.37 Yonathan Daza COL OF NA NA NA NA
747.65 Travis Jankowski CIN OF NA NA NA NA
748.32 Andrew Velazquez BAL SS, OF NA NA NA NA
748.44 Harold Ramirez CLE OF NA NA NA NA
748.71 Billy Hamilton CHC OF 723.5 749.59 750.25 1.54
749.16 Kristian Robinson ARZ OF 714 741.33 NA NA
749.29 Riley Greene DET OF 746 744.74 748.71 -0.58
749.38 Matt Joyce MIA OF NA 749.96 NA NA
749.81 Tyrone Taylor MLW OF 667.5 738.7 743.42 -6.39
749.89 Jose Osuna PIT 1B, OF 733.25 741.93 749.52 -0.37
750.13 Jarrod Dyson CWS OF 742 749.41 NA NA
750.52 Trevor Larnach MIN OF NA NA NA NA
750.54 Eli White TEX OF NA 741.93 747.33 -3.21
750.73 Domingo Santana CLE OF 597.75 676.93 743.21 -7.52
750.73 Mark Mathias MLW OF NA NA 750.48 -0.25
750.83 Phillip Ervin SEA OF NA 748.74 747.83 -3
750.95 Travis Demeritte ATL OF NA NA NA NA
750.98 Mickey Moniak PHI OF 744.75 747.74 748.73 -2.25
NA Estevan Florial NYY OF NA 744.07 747.56 NA
NA Haruki Nishikawa FA OF NA NA 722.56 NA
NA Hunter Bishop SF OF 720.75 NA NA NA
NA Jonathan Davis TOR OF 733.25 747.89 747.44 NA
NA Jorge Bonifacio DET OF 724.75 750 749.44 NA
NA Phil Gosselin PHI 1B, OF NA 749.44 NA NA
NA Rusney Castillo BOS OF 726.75 704.74 743.67 NA
NA Seth Beer ARZ OF 603.5 613.15 NA NA
NA Victor Victor Mesa MIA OF 747.5 747.74 NA NA
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
NFBC ADP from Draft Champions leagues from 1/26/21-3/3/21





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

newest oldest most voted
JOHN MEEHAN
Member
Member
JOHN MEEHAN

Um…Arenado is in St. Louis now.

fartbox12345
Member
fartbox12345

FAKE NEWS!