First Basemen ADP Market Report: 1/14/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising
None

 

Top 100 Players Falling
DJ LeMahieu (-5.69)- I think the only reason that LeMahieu is starting to slip is largely due to him being unsigned. He is coming off of two monster seasons in New York and there are lots of reasons to believe he can carry most of that over to wherever he lands.

Luke Voit (-9.98)- Voit had a monster season in 2020 and that is probably why he is dropping in the ADP. Voit’s ADP was very high coming into draft season and there was a bit too much helium based on what he did. That being said, he is a power hitter that has league average contact rates and a great barrel percentage at 13%. Health could always be an issue for him but if he can get to 600 plate appearances, he can easily pop 30+ homers with a decent average or better.

 

Top 200 Players Rising
None

 

Top 200 Players Falling
Dominic Smith (-15.95)- The fall of Dom Smith in the ADP probably has something to do with what was a crowded situation in New York and the reports that the Mets aren’t comfortable with him in left field. However, with both Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario being shipped out of town and the likelihood that the DH will be in the National League means he should be getting enough playing time to get to around 600 plate appearances. His StatCast data was great with an xBA of .304, a barrel percentage of 13.3% and a hard hit percentage of 46.7%. He’s a good bet for 25+ homers and a decent average.

Ryan Mountcastle (-17.75)- All Mountcastle has done his entire career is hit. However, there are some scary parts of his profile with his O-Swing and swinging strike rate and while his BABIPs in the minors have usually been somewhat high, there is no way he can maintain what he did in his small sample in 2020. That being said, for a power hitter, he makes good contact and he should have an everyday role in Baltimore which is a great park to hit in. If he continues to fall, he would represent a decent value.

Rhys Hoskins (-23.93)- Hoskins continues to fall because of concerns about when he will be ready to start the season. However, he posted a video of taking batting practice and it sounds like there is a chance he could be ready for spring training which makes it sound like the start of the season is definitely in the cards for him. If he is able to get 600+ plate appearances again, he should be able to get to 30+ homers with a ton of RBIs and pay off handsomely at his current price.

Christian Walker (-10.84)- Walker put up a lackluster 2020 with only seven home runs and a stolen base. However, he got unlucky. His xHR was 11 and the homers he did get were no-doubters. His hard hit percentage was 89% and pretty good contact. He is projected to hit third in a lineup that should perform better than it did last year. It seems like he could be a bit of a value if he continues to drop.

 

Top 300 Players Rising
Rowdy Tellez (+48.83)- Tellez is rising a lot in the ADP in large part due to the fact that he looks like he is going to be a regular in an explosive lineup and he has great StatCast data. The problem is that if the Blue Jays sign someone like DJ LeMahieu, it could come at the expense of Tellez’s playing time. Right now he is starting to rise over guys with cemented playing time and that is a huge risk.

Yuli Gurriel (+33.08)- Nothing went right for a lot of the Houston players and Gurriel wasn’t an exception to that. He has never been a guy who barrels the ball up often, but he has elite contact skills and doesn’t strike out. The average should bounce back as he got unlucky on balls in play, but the power we saw in 2019 is likely an outlier.

Carlos Santana (+45.42)- Santana jumping up the ADP probably has a lot to with the fact he signed a multi-year deal in Kansas City. His playing time is guaranteed and in OBP leagues he is a great play, but in traditional formats his average can be an issue and the huge drop in exit velocity could mean that we won’t see the power output we saw in 2019. In deeper leagues where plate appearances matter, Santana is a safe bet, but if you are looking for upside, look elsewhere.

C.J. Cron (+55.95)- Cron’s season was over before he ever got a real chance to get going. Supposedly he is healthy and should be ready for spring training, but he doesn’t have a team at this point and there are a lot of guys that will likely need to find a home before he is worth investing in.

 

Top 300 Players Falling
Bobby Dalbec (-27.56)- Dalbec has a ton of power and it was on display in his short sample in the Majors. The problem is the swing and miss. There is no way he can maintain the .394 BABIP he posted in 2020 and his .199 xBA is indicative of the kind of average he might put up with the massive power. This is Joey Gallo-lite without the stolen bases, so plan accordingly if you are going to draft him.