First Basemen ADP Market Report: 1/14/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising


Top 100 Players Falling
DJ LeMahieu (-5.69)- I think the only reason that LeMahieu is starting to slip is largely due to him being unsigned. He is coming off of two monster seasons in New York and there are lots of reasons to believe he can carry most of that over to wherever he lands.

Luke Voit (-9.98)- Voit had a monster season in 2020 and that is probably why he is dropping in the ADP. Voit’s ADP was very high coming into draft season and there was a bit too much helium based on what he did. That being said, he is a power hitter that has league average contact rates and a great barrel percentage at 13%. Health could always be an issue for him but if he can get to 600 plate appearances, he can easily pop 30+ homers with a decent average or better.


Top 200 Players Rising


Top 200 Players Falling
Dominic Smith (-15.95)- The fall of Dom Smith in the ADP probably has something to do with what was a crowded situation in New York and the reports that the Mets aren’t comfortable with him in left field. However, with both Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario being shipped out of town and the likelihood that the DH will be in the National League means he should be getting enough playing time to get to around 600 plate appearances. His StatCast data was great with an xBA of .304, a barrel percentage of 13.3% and a hard hit percentage of 46.7%. He’s a good bet for 25+ homers and a decent average.

Ryan Mountcastle (-17.75)- All Mountcastle has done his entire career is hit. However, there are some scary parts of his profile with his O-Swing and swinging strike rate and while his BABIPs in the minors have usually been somewhat high, there is no way he can maintain what he did in his small sample in 2020. That being said, for a power hitter, he makes good contact and he should have an everyday role in Baltimore which is a great park to hit in. If he continues to fall, he would represent a decent value.

Rhys Hoskins (-23.93)- Hoskins continues to fall because of concerns about when he will be ready to start the season. However, he posted a video of taking batting practice and it sounds like there is a chance he could be ready for spring training which makes it sound like the start of the season is definitely in the cards for him. If he is able to get 600+ plate appearances again, he should be able to get to 30+ homers with a ton of RBIs and pay off handsomely at his current price.

Christian Walker (-10.84)- Walker put up a lackluster 2020 with only seven home runs and a stolen base. However, he got unlucky. His xHR was 11 and the homers he did get were no-doubters. His hard hit percentage was 89% and pretty good contact. He is projected to hit third in a lineup that should perform better than it did last year. It seems like he could be a bit of a value if he continues to drop.


Top 300 Players Rising
Rowdy Tellez (+48.83)- Tellez is rising a lot in the ADP in large part due to the fact that he looks like he is going to be a regular in an explosive lineup and he has great StatCast data. The problem is that if the Blue Jays sign someone like DJ LeMahieu, it could come at the expense of Tellez’s playing time. Right now he is starting to rise over guys with cemented playing time and that is a huge risk.

Yuli Gurriel (+33.08)- Nothing went right for a lot of the Houston players and Gurriel wasn’t an exception to that. He has never been a guy who barrels the ball up often, but he has elite contact skills and doesn’t strike out. The average should bounce back as he got unlucky on balls in play, but the power we saw in 2019 is likely an outlier.

Carlos Santana (+45.42)- Santana jumping up the ADP probably has a lot to with the fact he signed a multi-year deal in Kansas City. His playing time is guaranteed and in OBP leagues he is a great play, but in traditional formats his average can be an issue and the huge drop in exit velocity could mean that we won’t see the power output we saw in 2019. In deeper leagues where plate appearances matter, Santana is a safe bet, but if you are looking for upside, look elsewhere.

C.J. Cron (+55.95)- Cron’s season was over before he ever got a real chance to get going. Supposedly he is healthy and should be ready for spring training, but he doesn’t have a team at this point and there are a lot of guys that will likely need to find a home before he is worth investing in.


Top 300 Players Falling
Bobby Dalbec (-27.56)- Dalbec has a ton of power and it was on display in his short sample in the Majors. The problem is the swing and miss. There is no way he can maintain the .394 BABIP he posted in 2020 and his .199 xBA is indicative of the kind of average he might put up with the massive power. This is Joey Gallo-lite without the stolen bases, so plan accordingly if you are going to draft him.

First Basemen ADP Market Report: 1/14/21
12/1/2020-1/12/2021 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/2020-10/31/2020 11/1/2020-11/30/2020 Change
13.03 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 15 13.42 0.39
15.83 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B, OF 16 14.46 -1.37
32.73 DJ LeMahieu FA 1B, 2B, 3B 28.75 27.04 -5.69
35.6 Jose Abreu CWS 1B 34.5 33.77 -1.83
59.2 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 63.25 61.5 2.3
59.27 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 61.5 60.23 0.96
68.4 Luke Voit NYY 1B 52.25 58.42 -9.98
96.2 Matt Olson OAK 1B 85.5 91.35 -4.85
98.7 Max Muncy LAD 1B, 2B, 3B 104 97.58 -1.12
99.7 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 106 98.73 -0.97
101.2 Alec Bohm PHI 1B, 3B 106.5 106.35 5.15
102.43 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 106 106.58 4.15
104.03 Dominic Smith NYM 1B, OF 99 88.08 -15.95
126.47 Mike Moustakas CIN 1B, 2B 133.25 128.92 2.45
137.2 Eric Hosmer SD 1B 138.5 135.46 -1.74
152.9 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B, SS 160.75 157.69 4.79
156.67 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B, OF 149 138.92 -17.75
178.97 Josh Bell WAS 1B 180.75 187.27 8.3
182.13 Jared Walsh LAA 1B 195 189.27 7.14
187.97 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B 145.25 164.04 -23.93
188.03 Miguel Sano MIN 1B 188.5 191.62 3.59
189.5 Trey Mancini BAL 1B, OF 224.25 200 10.5
193.07 Christian Walker ARZ 1B 176.25 182.23 -10.84
232.63 Hunter Dozier KC 1B, OF 232.75 242.15 9.52
235.9 Rowdy Tellez TOR 1B 283 284.73 48.83
242.87 Jeimer Candelario DET 1B, 3B 226.5 244.62 1.75
251.3 Yuli Gurriel HOU 1B 286.5 284.38 33.08
259.37 Ryan McMahon COL 1B, 2B, 3B 271.5 256.46 -2.91
274.5 Andrew Vaughn CWS 1B 272 273 -1.5
275.27 Carlos Santana KC 1B 334.75 320.69 45.42
285.83 Bobby Dalbec BOS 1B 244.5 258.27 -27.56
292.7 C.J. Cron DET 1B 285.25 348.65 55.95
292.8 Tommy La Stella OAK 1B, 2B 278.75 300.77 7.97
309.9 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B 340.75 295.04 -14.86
311.77 Jesus Aguilar MIA 1B 272.5 289.42 -22.35
312.43 Nate Lowe TEX 1B 351.25 398.58 86.15
336.97 Brandon Belt SF 1B 372.25 367.92 30.95
344.17 Garrett Cooper MIA 1B 345.75 359.08 14.91
353.47 Evan White SEA 1B 388.25 378.62 25.15
355.57 Joey Votto CIN 1B 438.75 402.08 46.51
356.03 Renato Nunez FA 1B 233.5 275.54 -80.49
380.67 Michael Chavis BOS 1B, 2B, OF 372 393.5 12.83
409.77 Mike Brosseau TB 1B, 2B, 3B 440.5 426.31 16.54
423.57 Colin Moran PIT 1B 444.75 450.15 26.58
464.57 Josh Fuentes COL 1B 474.75 486.54 21.97
466.77 Marwin Gonzalez FA 1B, 2B, 3B, OF 471.75 467.85 1.08
501.5 Ji-Man Choi TB 1B 560 590.23 88.73
506.23 Pat Valaika BAL 1B, 2B, SS 575 542.62 36.39
511.7 Asdrubal Cabrera FA 1B, 3B 472.25 471.19 -40.51
535.03 Mitch Moreland SD 1B 558 522.46 -12.57
537.47 Pavin Smith ARZ 1B 600 604.35 66.88
537.7 Travis Shaw TOR 1B, 3B 435.5 466.58 -71.12
539.97 Danny Santana TEX 1B 452 506.38 -33.59
588.7 Lewin Diaz MIA 1B 624.75 618.58 29.88
592.37 Jedd Gyorko MLW 1B, 3B 631.75 611.19 18.82
608.97 Seth Beer ARZ 1B NA NA NA
615.03 Jake Bauers CLE 1B, OF 739.75 727.88 112.85
618.73 Jake Lamb OAK 1B, 3B 676.5 652.65 33.92
666.07 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 712.25 681.12 15.05
681.83 Mike Ford NYY 1B 673 720.12 38.29
686 Ronald Guzman TEX 1B 621 592.42 -93.58
701.37 Seth Brown OAK 1B 707 744.77 43.4
710.7 Ryan McBroom KC 1B 599.5 674.27 -36.43
711.63 Sherten Apostel TEX 1B NA NA NA
727.13 Todd Frazier FA 1B, 3B NA 736.5 9.37
730.57 Ryan O’Hearn KC 1B NA 738.04 7.47
734.13 Daniel Murphy FA 1B 690.5 737.27 3.14
736.47 Triston Casas BOS 1B NA NA NA
739.9 Eric Thames 테임즈 FA 1B NA 739.08 -0.82
742.4 Will Craig PIT 1B 745.75 NA NA
744 Chris Davis BAL 1B NA NA NA
744.67 Matt Beaty LAD 1B 746 NA NA
NA Jose Osuna PIT 1B, OF 733.25 741.58 NA
NA Phil Gosselin PHI 1B, OF NA 749.38 NA

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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1 year ago

who are these people taking Vladdy that high, i want to play with them

1 year ago
Reply to  OTMHeartBBC

people that believe his hitting issues in ’20 were weight related…