2020 Pod vs Steamer — HR Downside, A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed my home run upside list, where I compared my Pod Projections to Steamer using AB/HR rate. Today, let’s now review my home run downside list.

HR Downside
Player Pod AB/HR Steamer AB/HR Pod HR – 600 AB Steamer HR – 600 AB Diff Actual AB/HR Actual HR – 600 AB Winner
Giancarlo Stanton 14.1 10.9 43 55 -12 19.0 32 Pod
Jedd Gyorko 25.4 18.6 24 32 -9 13.0 46 Steamer
Joc Pederson 17.2 14.0 35 43 -8 17.3 35 Pod
Andrew McCutchen 24.1 18.6 25 32 -7 21.7 28 Pod
Bryce Harper 15.5 13.3 39 45 -7 14.6 41 Pod
Travis Demeritte 37.6 27.3 16 22 -6 0.0 0.0 Pod
Chris Davis 22.9 18.9 26 32 -6 0.0 0.0 Pod
David Peralta 31.9 24.7 19 24 -5 40.6 15 Pod
Roberto Perez 27.6 22.3 22 27 -5 97.0 6 Pod
Miguel Cabrera 34.8 26.8 17 22 -5 20.4 29 Steamer
Khris Davis 16.3 14.3 37 42 -5 42.5 14 Pod
Manny Machado 18.3 16.0 33 38 -5 14.0 43 Steamer
Gleyber Torres 18.0 15.8 33 38 -5 45.3 13 Pod
Yasiel Puig 22.8 19.4 26 31 -5
Austin Hedges 26.8 22.2 22 27 -5 23.0 26 Steamer
Eloy Jimenez 18.8 16.4 32 37 -5 15.2 39 Steamer
Daniel Murphy 30.9 25.1 19 24 -5 41.0 15 Pod
J.D. Martinez 16.4 14.6 37 41 -5 30.1 20 Pod

Wow, if yesterday’s 6-9 loss to Steamer was no fun, then I made up for it with a convincing 12-5 record on the downsiders. Like on the upside list, the sample sizes here are pathetic, with six hitters accruing less than 100 at-bats, and one failing to play at all, which obviously was excluded from my W/L record.

Even with a 30.8% HR/FB rate, the third highest of his career, Giancarlo Stanton still came up far short of both of our forecasts. And holy guacamole, check out that Steamer 600 AB HR forecast…55?!!? Stanton also cut his strikeout rate, so it’s shocking he was only on a 32 home run pace. There’s a clear reason though — his FB% slipped below 30% for the first time ever, tumbling all the way to just 26.5% from his previous low in 2019 of 33.3%. Obviously, fewer fly balls is going to result in fewer homers, all else being equal. Stanton’s health remains a complete crapshoot, so whether he’s a reasonable buy or not will depend entirely on his price.

I think Steamer is consistently higher on Bryce Harper than I am as well (Stanton too), but Harper actually finished right in between our two forecasts, slightly closer to mine. It was a pretty interesting season for him though as he cut his strikeout rate to a career low, while boosting his fly ball rate to a career high. Normally, that would lead to a career best AB/HR mark, but his HR/FB rate fell below 20% for the first time since 2016. If he can maintain the strikeout rate and FB% improvements while enjoying a HR/FB rate rebound toward his 2017-2019 marks, he could have himself his second 40-homer season if health cooperates.

Seriously, what happened to Chris Davis?

I’ve been beeting on David Peralta’s 2018 HR/FB rate being the fluke and he’s done nothing since to convince me otherwise. Projection systems are still weighting that year, resulting in too-high home run forecasts.

Miguel Cabrera made Steamer’s optimism look justified! Was it a last hurrah over a small sample? His HR/FB rate surged to its highest mark since 2016, so perhaps he’s just been healthier than he has in recent years. Who knows what we’ll get this year, but I’m not too excited to bet on a 38-year-old.

So much for buying Khris Davis on a rebound off his disappointing 2019! Davis’ FB% did rebound back over 40%, which was one of the keys, but not only did his HR/FB rate not bounce back into the 20% range, it went into freefall, dropping into the high single digits. Of course, this all happened in just 85 at-bats, but it’s costing him significant playing time. Roster Resource still shows him as the starting DH for the Athletics, but that’s not going to continue unless Davis’ power rebounds.

Steamer nailed the progression for Manny Machado, as they were forecasting a career best ISO, and he actually delivered. He bumped up his HR/FB rate to 20%+ for the first time, after remaining amazingly consistent since 2014. He also combined that with a rebound in strikeout rate to set a new career best. At age 28, this could very well a new level for him, and it’s not such an outrageous level to think it can’t be sustained.

I felt Gleyber Torres was massively overvalued in fantasy drafts, so I wasn’t surprised to find his name on my home run downside list. I certainly didn’t expect this, but at least my pessimism was enough to steer readers away from him at his cost. Despite the disappointing year, there were lots of positives, including career best walk and strikeout rates. He should now come at a more reasonable price, meaning it’s now possible he ends up joining one of my teams.

I tend to remain conservative on young future stars, especially when their baseline is already so high. So it’s no surprise I missed on Eloy Jimenez as it’s tough not to expect regression off a 27.2% HR/FB rate during his rookie season. The scary thing is he’s doing all this with a low FB% and his mark was sub-30% in 2020. It’s still hard to believe he can maintain this high of a HR/FB rate, but anything he loses could possibly be made up from an increased fly ball rate.

I factored in J.D. Martinez’s back issues as a reason why he wouldn’t fully rebound from his 2019 performance that was down from his 2017-2018 peak. I definitely didn’t expect it to get this bad, but perhaps he had more of an excuse than some others during the COVID season due to lack of video. I’m curious what he’ll be valued at versus my dollar value projection, as he might be a good risk if his cost drops enough.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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estone2005
3 years ago

Harper hit 42 home runs in 2015. Otherwise, nice article!