Second Base ADP Market Report: 1/18/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Ketel Marte (+13.81)- I am a bit surprised to see Marte rising after a year where he dealt with injury and under performed in both the speed and power departments. Marte had a massive 2019 and it is likely people are willing to throw out the 2020 disappointment and blame it on injury and the short sample. I was already a little reluctant to give him a pass after he spent time on the IL late in the season twice in the last two years. The price jump makes me even less likely to draft him. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Tommy Edman (+18.27)- After falling in the ADP last month, Edman went above where he was originally in draft season. 2020 was difficult for the Cardinals after having to play 11 doubleheaders because of postponements due to COVID. In spite of struggling in 2020, Edman played in 55 games for the Cardinals, including in both ends of eight doubleheaders. The speed is legit and he should hit for enough power to play and he is eligible at 2B, SS, 3B, and OF in most formats which makes him insanely valuable for roster flexibility. 

Nick Solak (+17.79)- Solak’s climb isn’t completely unexpected. He showed that he can hit for a bit of pop and some surprising speed and he has eligibility at 2B and OF. However, his struggles versus right handed pitching can’t be ignored and while he has safe playing time for now, if it doesn’t improve, he could find himself in a platoon. The price isn’t bad right now, but it comes with risk. 

Andres Gimenez (+39.81)- It is not surprising to see Gimenez climbing up the ADP after his trade from the Mets to the Indians, but it was already starting to rise prior to this. However, it is and should continue to rise even more. His ADP since the trade is about 160. Gimenez should play full time in Cleveland. He has enough pop to play and a lot of speed. If he is let loose on the bases, he could be a 10/30 guy.  

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Jonathan Villar (-14.12)- Villar continues to fall largely due to the fact he has not signed with a team. Villar has shown the ability to be a huge boon or bust for fantasy players in recent years. He has a decent amount of power and a ton of speed, but playing time is key for him to make an impact. Right now he is a huge gamble until we know his role. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Ty France (+49.02)- France has moved up quite a lot over the last month. He has played well over the last two seasons in limited time. Now that he is with the Mariners, he seems to be in line for full time playing time now. That being said, there are some really concerning issues with France. His StatCast data is not good at all. His exit velocity is among the worst in baseball (8th percentile) and his hard hit percentage is less than 30%. I don’t know that he has a ton of power coming or will hit for a relatively strong average. Even with full time playing time, he is probably a 20 homer bat with a .260ish average and that is if the Mariners don’t decide to play other players over him because of defense or underperformance. 

Scott Kingery (+51.21)- Kingery has some pop in his bat and plenty of speed, but he has struggled to make contact and stay on the field. Even when he was on the field, he struggled. His zone contact rate was 73% and his swinging strike rate was over 16%. If he can’t find a way to swing and miss less and make more contact, then there isn’t much reason to buy into his rising ADP. 

Mauricio Dubon (+27.63)- I worry that Dubon will end up being a super utility guy, but the Giants seem like they want to give him plenty of run in 2021. He doesn’t have a ton of power or a ton of speed, but he provides a little bit of everything. His triple eligibility makes him very interesting in deeper formats as a bench bat that can cover a lot of positions. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Gavin Lux (-26.14)- Lux continues to fall likely due to fears about his playing time. The Dodgers have yet to add to their offense, but it seems likely they will bring back Justin Turner and could add more than that in the infield. The Dodgers could end up trading Lux or sending him back down to the minors. I believe in Lux long term, but the Dodgers don’t seem to at this point. 

 

Second Base ADP Market Report: 12/1/2020-1/18/2021
12/1/2020-1/18/2021 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/2020-10/31/2020 11/1/2020-11/30/2020 Change
32.9 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 28.75 26.59 -6.31
33.92 Ozzie Albies ATL 2B 26.75 31.63 -2.29
38.31 Whit Merrifield KC 2B, OF 47.5 42.26 3.95
55.72 Cavan Biggio TOR 2B, 3B, OF 57 55.41 -0.31
70.95 Brandon Lowe TB 2B, OF 81 70.78 -0.17
71.62 Keston Hiura MLW 2B 74 65.7 -5.92
76.97 Ketel Marte ARZ 2B 88.25 90.78 13.81
95.79 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B, 3B, OF 109.25 97.7 1.91
99.36 Max Muncy LAD 1B, 2B, 3B 104 97.52 -1.84
105.72 Jose Altuve HOU 2B 99 109.3 3.58
109.95 Dylan Moore SEA 2B, OF 136 113.11 3.16
126.49 Mike Moustakas CIN 1B, 2B 133.25 128.96 2.47
126.77 Tommy Edman STL 2B, 3B, SS, OF 133.75 145.04 18.27
144.64 Jonathan Villar TOR 2B, SS 119.25 130.52 -14.12
156.44 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B, SS 160.75 157.81 1.37
157.28 Nick Solak TEX 2B, OF 178.25 175.07 17.79
174.97 Andres Gimenez NYM 2B, 3B, SS 223.75 214.78 39.81
192.03 Nick Madrigal CWS 2B 190 192.7 0.67
198.23 Jean Segura PHI 2B, 3B 217.25 198.15 -0.08
203.95 Jurickson Profar SD 2B, OF 194.75 207.48 3.53
217.79 David Fletcher LAA 2B, 3B, SS 221.25 219.74 1.95
229.69 Chris Taylor LAD 2B, SS, OF 250 232 2.31
240.1 Gavin Lux LAD 2B 160.75 213.96 -26.14
241.26 Jon Berti MIA 2B, OF 249 248.15 6.89
260.05 Ryan McMahon COL 1B, 2B, 3B 271.5 255.59 -4.46
273.95 Garrett Hampson COL 2B, OF 260.25 264.3 -9.65
279.72 Ty France SEA 2B 359.75 328.74 49.02
283.49 Scott Kingery PHI 2B, OF 271 334.7 51.21
283.74 Mauricio Dubon SF 2B, SS, OF 347.5 311.37 27.63
299.28 Tommy La Stella OAK 1B, 2B 278.75 300.41 1.13
308.44 Joey Wendle TB 2B, 3B, SS 323.75 309.78 1.34
310.79 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B 340.75 293.52 -17.27
312.15 Starlin Castro WAS 2B 346 355.22 43.07
326.1 Luis Arraez MIN 2B 363.25 363.37 37.27
341 Kolten Wong STL 2B 395.25 397.33 56.33
367.62 Jonathan Schoop DET 2B 348 365.56 -2.06
369.54 Cesar Hernandez CLE 2B 312 342.37 -27.17
377.56 Niko Goodrum DET 2B, SS 430.5 434.22 56.66
380.51 Luis Urias MLW 2B, 3B, SS 394 401.96 21.45
384.03 Michael Chavis BOS 1B, 2B, OF 372 389.37 5.34
401.74 Nico Hoerner CHC 2B, SS 500 461.96 60.22
406.72 Jazz Chisholm MIA 2B, SS 404 419.7 12.98
410 Mike Brosseau TB 1B, 2B, 3B 440.5 425.3 15.3
448.72 Adam Frazier PIT 2B, OF 498.75 498.81 50.09
458.87 David Bote CHC 2B, 3B 576.75 542.67 83.8
465.56 Chad Pinder OAK 2B, 3B 577 564.37 98.81
467.38 Marwin Gonzalez MIN 1B, 2B, 3B, OF 471.75 478.33 10.95
470.15 Kike Hernandez LAD 2B, OF 560.5 547.26 77.11
472.08 Donovan Solano SF 2B 468.5 467.04 -5.04
474.74 Rougned Odor TEX 2B 430.5 460.74 -14
475.23 Kevin Newman PIT 2B, SS 503.5 505.33 30.1
488.36 Luis Garcia WAS 2B 445.25 464.63 -23.73
501.59 Hanser Alberto BAL 2B 388.25 393.67 -107.92
503.18 Pat Valaika BAL 1B, 2B, SS 575 550.33 47.15
505.59 Brendan Rodgers COL 2B 483.5 486.19 -19.4
509.33 Vidal Brujan TB 2B 452.5 497.67 -11.66
564.08 Freddy Galvis CIN 2B, SS 580 583.7 19.62
594.46 Shed Long Jr. SEA 2B 630.5 633.67 39.21
604.33 Josh Harrison WAS 2B, 3B 657.75 673.96 69.63
604.85 Josh Rojas ARZ 2B 622.25 625.48 20.63
629.33 Isan Diaz MIA 2B 675.5 623 -6.33
636.9 Aledmys Diaz HOU 2B 659.25 701.52 64.62
644.87 Nicky Lopez KC 2B 716 690.3 45.43
647.72 Johan Camargo ATL 2B, 3B 683.25 698.59 50.87
662 Tyler Wade NYY 2B, SS 723.25 681.19 19.19
665.15 Christian Arroyo BOS 2B 677.5 673.37 8.22
689.1 Tony Kemp OAK 2B 726.25 742.41 53.31
711.67 Josh VanMeter ARZ 2B NA 720.07 8.4
724.64 Dee Strange-Gordon SEA 2B, OF 743.25 717.52 -7.12
733.28 Joe Panik TOR 2B, 3B, SS 720.25 734.3 1.02
735.1 Robinson Cano NYM 2B 268 482.44 -252.66
735.23 Eric Sogard MLW 2B, 3B, SS 735.5 749.3 14.07
738.95 Kyle Farmer CIN 2B, SS NA 748.78 9.83
741.79 Franklin Barreto LAA 2B NA 728.41 -13.38
742.38 Jason Kipnis CHC 2B NA NA NA
743.15 Luis Guillorme NYM 2B NA 747.52 4.37
743.82 Jonathan Arauz BOS 2B 696.5 746.67 2.85
744.44 Jose Peraza BOS 2B 717.5 747.93 3.49
745.26 Danny Mendick CWS 2B NA 742.22 -3.04
747.74 Andy Young ARZ 2B NA 743.59 -4.15
747.92 Chris Owings COL 2B 728.5 720.67 -27.25
748.05 Jahmai Jones LAA 2B NA 744.67 -3.38
748.36 Adeiny Hechavarria ATL 2B, 3B NA NA NA
749.92 Travis Blankenhorn MIN 2B 744.5 750.33 0.41
750.72 Scooter Gennett SF 2B NA 728.81 -21.91
750.74 Luis Rengifo LAA 2B 746.25 736.56 -14.18
750.87 Sergio Alcantara DET 2B NA NA NA
NA Breyvic Valera TOR 2B NA 749.96 NA
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
Draft Champions Data from 12/1/2020-1/18/2021





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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bef0626
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Of the 54 players who have moved up in ADP, exactly two-thirds of them have multi-positional eligibility. I think that’s the real explanation here, as a 50 man DC roster usually means that each owner draft multiples of these types of players (and even a 30 man roster needs at least one who can qualify at 2B and elsewhere) The one headscratcher is Ketel Marte, who has moved up nearly a full round for no discernible reason.