Gold Digging: Building a Team After Pick-300 Pt. 1

This is another one of my favorite offseason exercises. Last week, I went through the Steamer600 projections to uncover some potential gems who could break out if they get that kind of playing time. Today we’re on the hunt again, this time for gold (they’re minerals, Marie!) and we’re doing so by lopping off the first 300 picks of the Average Draft Position and then picking our players.

Later this week, I’ll have the rest of the lineup and then next week, I’ll share my pitchers.

Catcher

Hunter Goodman | COL – 313 ADP

This one is very straightforward: a super powerful catcher-eligible bat in Coors. He also played some 1B and LF so he could be a non-catching catcher. He must figure out how to hit first!  Goodman clubbed 13 HRs in just 70 games last season, but his 0.13 BB/K was tied for 3rd-lowest (min. 220 PA) as he posted a 61 wRC+ in 224 PA. He did have a 0.35 BB/K (MLB league average: 0.36) in 1259 minor league plate appearances so he has shown some ability to draw a walk. Think Patrick Wisdom in Coors if things work out for Goodman. Wisdom clubbed 30 HRs/500 PA from 2021-23 despite a paltry 0.26 BB/K and .214 AVG in 1211 PA.

Also consider: Danny Jansen | TBR – 303 ADP

His PA have slowly trickled up each of the last year 4 seasons and maybe – just maybe – Tampa Bay will land his first 400 PA/20 HR season. A fractured wrist in Spring Training cost him the first couple weeks and may have played a role in some of his struggles last season (89 wRC+ after 121 in 2021-23). He got out to a fast start with a .905 OPS and 5 HR in his first 30 games before completely collapsing with just a .517 OPS and 4 HR in his last 62 games in a part time role. If he gets back to his 2021-23 levels, the Rays will let him play consistently.

First Base

Josh Bell | WAS – 330 ADP

When you look at his profile, Bell’s return to Washington D.C. makes sense. He has been essentially league average the last two seasons posting a 102 wRC+ in 1220 PA with Cleveland, Miami, and Arizona (he’s been traded both seasons). Prior to that, he put up a 130 wRC+ with the Nationals in a season-plus of work (yep, he was traded in 2022, too… 3 years in a row). Over the course of his career, he has 25 HRs in 150 games at Nationals Park with a .295/.379/.520 slash line in 587 PA. Not only do I like this move because of Bell’s previous success there, but I also see the Nats as a lineup on the rise. I could even see a world where Bell returns to the 100-RBI level. He hasn’t come close since notching 116 back in 2019, but with CJ Abrams, Dylan Crews, James Wood, and Nathaniel Lowe in front of him, he could be consistently batting with a lot of traffic on the bases.

Also consider: Luke Raley | SEA – 302 ADP

You’d be forgiven for jumping ship with Raley after April. He managed a meager .505 OPS with nary a homer in 56 PA. Cutting after a month was fair given where he went in drafts especially with his playing time dwindling (started 15 of 22 gms). He rebounded in May and looked great for four of the next five months, hitting 22 HRs with an .825 OPS in his final 399 PA. That doesn’t mean the cut was automatically wrong, though. Sometimes it makes total sense to cut somebody to take a chance on a more appealing player even knowing that they might start producing like you expected when you drafted them. He is a straight platoon player so plan for 400-450 PA, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a third straight 20ish HR/10ish SB season.

Second Base

Gavin Lux | CIN – 336

Do I even really need to expound here? OK, OK, fine, I’m sure there are some readers who aren’t familiar with my continued support of Lux. He returned from a torn ACL last year and I was admittedly overzealous in assuming he’d back to 100% right away. We can never really know how close to 100% a returning player is so it’s better to practice some caution with them as a general rule, even if you miss out on the guys who immediately return to their previously established levels. That said, he wasn’t terribly expensive at the draft table last year and after just a 100 wRC+ in 487 PA, he’s even cheaper this year. So why am I still on board? A strong finish to 2024 and move to Cincinnati where his playing time has opened back up are keeping my interest in the 27-year-old middle infielder.

He trudged through the first half with just 2 HRs and a .562 OPS, but then 2 HRs in the first 3 games out of the All-Star break set up a strong second half even with a modest September (.659 OPS): 7 HRs, .899 OPS in 210 PA. Lux acknowledged that he got more confident in his knee as the season progressed, saying “It helped getting further away from surgery and to start trusting it again. I just tried to do more damage” in an article posted on MLB.com after the trade. In that same article, he expressed his openness to playing wherever needed as Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz have the middle infield spots on lock.

If he’s fully trusting the knee in 2025, I wonder if we might see a stolen base spike as the Reds have the most SBs in baseball over the last three seasons with 455 while the Dodgers are 11th with 339. A speed surge would be a bonus, there’s a much better chance at his first 20-HR season. His second half HR pace was right at 20 and he’s moving to far-and-away the best HR park in baseball for lefties. Great American Ballpark has a 142 HR Park Factor for lefties the last three years, well above the solid 116 for Dodger Stadium (ranked 6th). We’ll get some clarity on his role in Spring Training and he only gets more intriguing if he is slated to add OF eligibility.

Also consider: Michael Massey | KCR – 383

Like Lux, I’m not new to the Massey Hype Train and even though things were just OK last year (102 wRC+), let’s run it back! A back injury delayed the start of his season and then cost him most of June. Upon returning, he sputtered his way through July (.522 OPS) before finding his footing down the stretch with a .758 OPS in the final two months. He has a solid power stroke that can generate 20+ HRs in a full season and his ability consistently square up the ball hints at some AVG upside, too.

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NEXT UP: SS, 3B, OF