Ottoneu: Lucas’ Keep or Cut Decisions at OF Part II

All around American neighborhoods lights are being taken down, candles put away, and trees placed out on curbs. Winter holidays are coming to a close and, dare I write it, playoff football is about to begin. But you are here because you have an Ottonue team to manage. The January 31st keep/cut deadline is fast approaching and in this article, we continue to look at outfielders who need to be placed in one of those two categories before that date. Let’s all gather around the wood stove and debate a few fantasy options as the snow turns to ice and we wait for the roads to clear.

Replacement level OF (72 rostered): 4.14 P/G

2024 Keep/Cut: C – CI – MI – OF.1 – OF.2 – SP – RP

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Wilyer Abreu, OF
Salary: $5
Average Salary: $6
2024 P/G: 4.17
Proj 2025 P/G: 4.80

Is Wilyer Abreu in a platoon situation before the 2025 season has begun? The short answer is yes. In 2024, he recorded only 67 plate appearances against lefties, hitting a sad and lonesome .180. Luckily, Abreu is a left-handed batter, which puts him on the strong side of a platoon. Abreu’s weak-side platoon partner, Romy Gonzalez, slashed .302/.362/.517 against lefties last season, giving him enough of a reputation to take Abreu’s spot when a Southpaw is on the mound. So cut down on Abreu’s playing time, add the fantasy manager’s sit/start conundrum, but consider Abreu a near-full-time player. Is he good enough for $5? Three of my four favorite stats to view when first attempting to answer that question (Barrel%, maxEV, and HardHit%) were above average in 2024, but even with 447 plate appearances, Abreu hit only 15 home runs. Here are some player comparisons using only those three stats and attaching the resulting home runs:

This is admittedly a cherry-picked list. I subset 2024 data down to all players with at least 400 PA and a Barrel% between 10% and 11%. Abreu has a top HardHit%, yet he hit significantly fewer home runs than his group mates. In addition, in both 2023 and 2024, Abreu’s HR/FB% was below average, though in 2024 it was basically average. Being a left-handed hitter in Fenway may have something to do with it and Statcast thinks he should have had a few more home runs last season than met his final stat line. His Z-Contact% fell short of average in 2024, but with two seasons of above-average slugging percentages, Abreu keeps his value in his power, a good thing in Ottoneu points leagues. Steamer has his home run mark repeating plus one (16 HR) in 2025, but regressing some in the slugging department (.421). Still, the power skills metrics give enough confidence that Abreu can at least repeat last season’s marks with upside added in if he can get more distance on his fly-balls.

Keep or Cut?

Keep

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Lawrence Butler, OF
Salary: $5
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/G: 4.96
Proj 2025 P/G: 5.40

Butler rocketed onto the scene in 2024. A near 20-20 player in 2024 with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases, Butler’s points per game mark brought his roster rate up to the 90’s. When assessing his 2024 campaign, the first thing that stands out are his actual and expected stats. They are nearly identical. He produced great batted ball metrics, placing him in percentiles greater than 70 in nearly all of the statcast “Batting” measurements representing contact quality on his player page. He hit lefties and righties:

vsL: .291/.315/.523

vsR: .255/.318/.482

and his K% came down from 27.1% in 2023 to 23.9% in 2024, a sign of plate-discipline improvement. FanGraphs writer Michael Rosen analyzed Butler’s approach in September and though he pointed out some of the ways pitchers may adjust and better attack Butler, he also pointed out Butler’s own ability to make adjustments, a necessary ingredient for success. Steamer thinks his slash line will regress from .262/.317/.490 to .253/.315/.444, but he’ll go 20-20 in 2025 with five more home runs (27) and three more stolen bases (21). This is the type of player you hope to get under the average salary and keep for many years.

Keep or Cut?

Keep.

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Nick Castellanos, OF
Salary: $19
Average Salary: $18
2024 P/G: 4.58
Proj 2025 P/G: 4.64

Castellanos should have performed better in both batting average and slugging in 2024 based on his expected statistics. His HardHit% declined from 2023 to 2024, but his Z-Contact% increased and his K% decreased. Steamer expects 22 home runs, but a repeat slash line:

2024: .254/.311/.431

2025 Proj: .253/.304/.429

It must be frustrating to have gained in contact rates and plate discipline, yet to have posted his lowest batting average since 2020. Luck was not on his side in a number of ways, BABIP being one. That was also the lowest it’s been since 2020. If his power is declining and I’m paying more than the average, I think I’m out at $19.

There is a narrative that goes like this; Castellanos is an aging player losing some of his power potential, but showcasing a skills adjustment that translates to more balls in play and higher OBP and batting average marks. The peak he hit in 2021 was his career peak. That seems believable. In standard roto formats, Castellanos still has great value. He just recorded a season of 162 games! He’s likely now a bulk player who I’d prefer to throw back to the waiver to see if I can save a few bucks.

Keep or Cut?

Cut.

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Adolis García, OF
Salary: $18
Average Salary: $16
2024 P/G: 4.03
Proj 2025 P/G: 4.87

Michael Bauman’s Annual Adolis García Check-in made me nervous and I moved García down to the “Cut” section of my Roster Organizer. Still, 25 home runs and a .400 slugging percentage plays in Ottoneu points leagues. For the second season in a row, García’s expected metrics were higher than his actuals, but as Bauman pointed out, going from a 2023 xSLG of .526 to a 2024 xSLG of .422 is alarming. More alarming still, as Bauman also pointed out, is the decline in production García has displayed against higher velocity. As he heads into an age-32 season, García is displaying marks of age decline, particularly in his HardHit%:

Steamer does not necessarily think that is the case, as it’s projecting an improved .438 slugging percentage in 2025, along with 28 home runs. That’s difficult to cut from your team. Still, in Ottoneu, salary rules and this $18 version of an aging outfielder is more than I want to pay. Where do you want to put your money? On the age-based, skills-declining, under replacement-level version of Adolis García? Or, the projected bounce-back above replacement-level version? I’d like to find somewhere in-between, cut him, and see if I can get him under the average salary for 2025.

Keep or cut?

Cut.