Ottoneu Hot Right Now: June 21st, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Jordan Hicks – 67 current auctions

Hicks was once among the most sought-after relievers in Ottoneu, before injuries and a misguided attempt to be a starter derailed that. Back in the pen, things were not going particularly well. On May 22, Hicks threw a perfect inning with one K, bringing his P/IP up to 5.28 and his ERA down to 4.79 on the year. Then he sat for five days and eventually made his next appearance on May 28. Since then, he has made 10 appearances going 10.2 IP, striking out 16, walking 4 and not allowing a homer. His ERA is 2.53 and his P/IP is 8.96 over that stretch.

His velocity, which was already up from last year, has been trending further up recently. His ground ball rate, while still below his peak from years ago, is trending up after bottoming out earlier this year. He’s leaning a bit more on his sinker – which makes sense if the velo on it is better. On June 17-19, he grabbed three saves in three days, seemingly taking over the closer’s role in St. Louis. And presumably, that is what sparked this rush of auctions.

For me, the saves are nice, but it’s the shift in performance that has me excited. Where I need relievers, I am definitely bidding. And I kind of hope he pitches the 7th or 8th today, before some of these auctions end, and scares away some bidders. I’ll take the skills regardless of the role.

Eddie Rosario – 52 current auctions

I covered Rosario ever-so-briefly less than a week ago and I don’t feel the need to go into a ton more depth here. But I will note two things, one in favor of buying, one against:

1. This isn’t a new Rosario. His chase rate is the highest of his career, he is swinging more than ever overall, and his contact rate is well below his career average. We have seen him run hot like this before and it has never been sustainable. I don’t know why it would be now.
2. Eddie Rosario, at age 31, has set a new max exit velocity hitting a ball over 110 MPH for the first time in his career (he has another over 109 that set a new career high just a few weeks before he hit that 110). While neither his hard-hit rate nor his sweet-spot rate are reaching out of career norms for him, they are overlapping such that he is nearly doubling his career barrel rate.

I still don’t really trust that he is going to keep this up, because the approach is still really bad. But it’s possible that a new level of power could make the highs higher and the lows less annoying to suffer through. And I have no issue spending a small amount to ride the hot streak and see where it takes you.

Joey Votto – 46 current auctions

On the one hand, Votto turns 40 in September and was very bad last year. On the other, he was very good the year before that (and many, many years before that) and I have a hard time betting against a guy with his talent and his ability to adjust and re-invent himself when needed.

Just back from injury, Votto made his first appearance of the year Monday and blasted a HR. While Tuesday wasn’t exciting, I love the idea of adding Votto just in case he finds another big season. I am not looking to spend a ton. I don’t want to be reliant on him to be in my lineup daily. But if I can add him to a rotation of players at 1B or Util, I am all over it.

This is particularly true if I am not contending – grab him now, and if he gets hot, move him for a fun prospect.

Josh Sborz – 39 current auctions

Sborz came up in not one but two Ottoneu RP Drips from Jake Mailhot recently and it seems people are finally paying attention. He’s been great and should be on your radar. He’s easily worth a bid to add to your pen.

Alek Thomas – 32 current auctions

If you want some analysis of Thomas, I will point you to the Keep or Kut podcast as my co-host, Pete Ball, and I discuss Thomas on the episode that just went live today. TLDR (or I guess TLDL); he was simplifying his swing on his recent minor league stint, he produced at a high level, and now he is hitting in the two days since returning. I have some concerns that his Triple-A success looked a lot like his previous Triple-A success, rather than representing a meaningful change in his production, but I have long been a Thomas fan and I am holding where I have him and cautiously buying in where I can do so at a low enough cost.

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Roster Adds

Luis Matos, Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 63.46%

Matos came up in last week’s Hot Right Now and the news since then is mostly good. He has played six games in eight days, alleviating (at least for now) early concern that he might be limited in terms of playing time. The performance has also been good. It’s only 24 PA, but 5 walks and 1 strikeout are still great signs, even if he hasn’t shown any power at all. I was interested in Matos because, “that plate discipline plus that power upside is just way too exciting a combination to ignore.” We haven’t seen the power yet, but I am still excited to see if it comes around.

Scott McGough, Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 26.92%

McGough was also in this space last week due to ongoing auctions and I was also high on him. And he has also kept delivering since then. So no change for me – I am still in on McGough.

Josh Sborz, Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 25.64%

Sborz was already covered above.

Coco Montes, Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 22.12%

Finally, one more name that also appeared in last week’s Hot Right Now. But unlike Matos and McGough above, the third “M” in our run-down wasn’t someone I was buying in on. This was my concluding paragraph on him:

I would love to see Montes succeed. He was a 15th-round pick that no one was talking about and Coco is a great name. But I suspect he isn’t around for long. His minor league strikeout numbers are only okay and his production hasn’t been impressive except in the PCL. Maybe that translates fine to Coors, but I think he is going to struggle and end up back in the PCL before long.

Since being called up, Montes has a 29 wRC+. He is striking out in 40% of plate appearances. And since going 2-3 with a homer in his debut, he has just one hit (a single) and has only been on base three times in 22 PA. It’s not going well.

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Hot Performers

Your major league leader in wOBA over the last 14 days is Shohei Ohtani and I have nothing useful to say about him, but any time you can mention how good Ohtani is, you have to do it.

Another name that isn’t maybe that useful to you is Jordan Walker. Walker is 100% rostered so you can’t just go pick him up, but he has been on fire since his recall from Triple-A. If you are thinking about selling, Walker should be a primary target, if you can offer up enough to pry him away from a contender.

On a more attainable level, Matt Vierling was attracting some pre-season chatter but between a relatively low profile and a rough start, his roster percentage has dipped to 23.4% recently. However, since missing a couple of weeks and then returning earlier in June, he has been swinging a hot bat – hot enough that he has 99 points in 14 games (7.07 P/G) over the last 30 days. He is striking out less and his exit velocity is way up. He isn’t quite an everyday player for the Tigers, though he is close to it. And he offers 3B and OF eligibility and I have a number of teams that could use help at both. I started one Vierling auction a couple of days ago and I don’t think it will be my last.

The ninth-highest scoring SP (in terms of total points) over the last 30 days is a free agent in the FanGraphs Staff League and rostered in just 75% of leagues overall. Taijuan Walker has put up 189 over 36 innings (5.25 P/IP) since May 21 and I am still not really buying in. His score is high in part thanks to some BABIP luck (.236 BABIP for a guy who we should expect to be a solid 40 points higher). Another part is HR/FB rate luck (5.7% for a guy we should expect to be at least double that). His strikeout rate, which has never been great, is actually down a bit over this stretch. I wasn’t excited about Walker before and I am not buying this hot streak as anything more than some batted ball luck.