Hidden Success: Strong Seasons Masked by Rough Starts

Not all of these players are great buy low candidates, but let’s take them in order.

Triston Casas – Casas has put up 3.7 P/G in Ottoneu points leagues on the year, but he is around 4.7 over his last nine starts, and things are clearly trending in the right direction.

There is a lot going on there, but there are good-looking trends in Casas’s wOBA, O-Swing and Hard%.

The challenge is that Casas’s 3.7 P/G on the season isn’t a total lie. Since May 7 – right around where the Hard% line goes up to stay – he has a .351 wOBA but is still at just 4.60 P/G. Take out three games he came in as a PH and that goes up to 4.93. That isn’t a bad hitter! But it is not a good 1B-only bat, not even a little.

That said, I am still interested in buying low in Casas if I can. The adjustments and improvements are a really good sign, he is only 23 years old, and I just don’t believe a guy with his raw power will run at 12.5% HR/FB rate for long. If he continues to avoid waving at pitches outside the zone, the power will play up and the results will follow.

Robbie Grossman – Grossman and his 3.93 P/G are rostered in just 13% of leagues right now, so he is basically freely available if you want him. He has certainly turned things around after a cold start, but that turn-around is almost entirely based on increased BABIP. His BB% and K% are fairly steady before and after our cut-off and his season-long plate discipline looks a lot like his poor 2022 season.

If you compare Grossman’s strong 2021 to his weak 2022, you see he was at his best when he kept the strikeouts below 25%, the walks well over 10%, and the barrels over 7%. He is doing some of that right now, but not all of it. The walks are lower and the strikeouts a bit higher, although the barrel rate is there. Unlike Casas, the improvement since late-April looks mostly like things balancing out and I think his season-long line is a pretty good representation of what he will be going forward.

I don’t see Grossman as an interesting buy-low, but I should note that he still mashes lefties, just like he has in the past, and he can be a useful platoon bat in Ottoneu, as long as you only start him vs. LHP. My one word of caution is to make sure you actually need him before you pick him up. If he is only going to be in your lineup half the time he faces lefties, he’ll play once a week, if that. That’s not necessarily a great use of a roster spot.

Ezequiel Tovar – The man of the hour. This data cut actually doesn’t do Tovar any favors because he really took off even later. Since May 23, he has a .357 wOBA. Since May 15, he is the 13th-highest-scoring SS by total points in Ottoneu and he’s the 20th-highest-scoring MI. Given leagues start at least 36 MI (others might be used at other positions where they also qualify), Tovar should have been a mainstay in lineups over that time.

As the season has gone on, Tovar is chasing less, striking out less, and making more hard contact. He’s still just 21 years old – he could easily still be in Double-A right now and simply holding his own in the majors is a good sign. Tovar is the only MLB player age 21 or younger playing regularly enough to qualify for the batting title. Here is a complete list of players who qualified for the batting title at age 21 or younger over the last decade:

• Julio Rodriguez
• Juan Soto (x2)
• Fernando Tatis Jr.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (x2)
• Ronald Acuña Jr.
• Ozzie Albies
• Cody Bellinger
• Nomar Mazara
• Addison Russell
• Xander Bogaerts
• Carlos Correa

That list isn’t 100% successful, but there is some great company there. And it’s not like Tovar looks out of place – his .296 wOBA would be second to last (Bogaerts was worse) but remember – he has been improving and is up over .350 over the last month.

Tovar is a target for me, for sure. I am happy to hold him where I have him and I will be looking to buy as long as he continues to show the kind of adjustments and improvements he has shown so far.

Ke’Bryan Hayes – I just covered Hayes in yesterday’s Ottoneu Hot Right Now, so we don’t need to go into detail here again. Suffice it to say, the launch angle is creeping up, but he still isn’t pulling many fly balls and that is what we need to see to get excited.

Eddie Rosario – This is going to be a quick one. Rosario going cold and then getting hot is nothing new. He will get cold again. Enjoy the hot while it is hot. Don’t expect much and don’t go out of your way to buy low.