Ottoneu Hot Right Now: June 14th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Luis Matos – 76 current auctions

There was a time, not that long ago, that Matos was a prospect on the rise with a lot of hype. In February 2022, the FanGraphs prospect team tagged him with a 50 FV grade and ranked him 35th in their top 100. But they had some concerns:

“There’s huge ceiling here, that of a center fielder with a potent combination of hit and power, but the pitch selection piece of Matos’ profile is a little bit concerning and is keeping him in the 50 FV tier for now.”

It’s hard to say pitch selection was his primary issue in 2022, but his performance was lackluster (74 wRC+ in High-A) and by the time 2023 grades were rolling out, Matos was out of the top-100 and had a 45 FV. His grades went down across the board, but his power in particular took a hit. A year ago his game power was rated 30/50 by the FanGraphs team, with his raw power a 50/60. This year those grades are 30/40 and 40/45.

Which makes what he is doing this year so exciting. He posted a 133 wRC+ in 133 Double-A PA, followed by a 158 in 114 Triple-A PA. His ISO is up, his HR are up, he has more walks than strikeouts; everything looks good. And now, with injuries to JD Davis and Mitch Haniger opening up time with the Giants, Matos is set to make his debut, likely today.

This presents a rare opportunity to buy into a prospect with legitimately elite upside (remember, a year ago, pitch selection concerns held him back to 35th best in baseball) and literally no wait until he debuts. With Haniger set to be out a while, I am definitely going to be placing some bids – that plate discipline plus that power upside is just way too exciting a combination to ignore.

Owen White – 49 current auctions

Unlike Matos, White’s star was on the rise coming into the year, going from a 50 FV prospect ranked 84th a year ago to 30th overall with a 55 FV grade this year. Also unlike Matos, White has been really, really not good this year. His line in Double-A includes way too many walks and way too few strikeouts. The K’s have not been an issue for him in the past, but the walks are not new and they are at least a little concerning.

But scouts love White and his track record – other than those walks – is terrific. Hence that #30 ranking. And, like Matos, White has been promoted, sparking a flurry of auctions.

White made his debut last night and didn’t exactly shine. He went two innings in relief, struck out two, walked one, and gave up 3 ER on 4 H. He sat 94 and touched 95, I haven’t watched his debut, and I am seeing some tweets suggesting he ran into some bad luck, but he did give up a HR (which would have been out in 19/30 parks) and 106.5 MPH groundout.

There are a couple of other issues as well. He has had trouble staying on the field, limiting his innings and his development. And he hasn’t actually been put into the rotation which could mean his stay in Texas is short.

This is a case of scout vs. stats, for me. I see a guy struggling with command and control, who might not be up for long. Scouts (and I am not a scout) see a potential mid-rotation arm. I’ll probably throw a couple of bucks at him where I have easy cuts and plenty of cap. But the hype is higher than that and I doubt I will pick him up.

Scott McGough – 39 current auctions

McGough had some hype before the season, and then turned in a 6.4o FIP over his first 15.1 IP. As of May 5, he had allowed 5 HR and struck out just 16 hitters. Those are very bad and not-that-good numbers, respectively, for the two most important stats for Ottoneu RP.

Since then, he has a 2.05 FIP over 18 innings with 0 HR allowed and 23 K. In his last outing, he also got his first save since April 2. His 7.14 P/IP on the season is still only okay, but he is over 10 Pt/IP over the last 3-4 weeks.

You know how I feel about RP – they are rarely worth more than $1 and you have to be ready to churn them at a moment’s notice, but McGough is turning into a must-roster RP, despite being rostered in <25% of leagues. I would put $1 on him in every league I am in, and in leagues were I have cash to burn, he is a rare RP I am open to going a little higher.

Tyler Mahle – 38 current auctions

We’ve been through this rodeo before. Mahle was in the Cold Right Now report on May 8, due to injury, and was going onto my watchlist at that time, as he hadn’t been bad before getting hurt. Since then, of course, it was announced that Mahle is having Tommy John Surgery. He is not a guy worth holding through all of this year and most of next. I suspect these auctions are all managers trying to clear cap penalties and I am not placing bids.

Coco Montes– 36 current auctions

How far off the radar was Montes? This will be the first FanGraphs article ever to tag him. He has no scouting report on his FanGraphs player page. This is a guy no one was talking about a week ago.

But he got called up and when you get called up people check you out and when you check out Montes, you see 32 HR in his 761 Triple-A PA between last year and this year. You also see he was in the notoriously-hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but even adjusting for that, he had a 112 wRC+ last year and a 125 this year.

His brief time with the Rockies has been eventful. In 8 PA, he has struck out five times, homered once and singled once. That leads to a pretty strong overall line, but it doesn’t look super sustainable to me. It’s also 8 PA, so who cares what it looks like, right? Except that he just appears so overmatched. The 62.5% K-rate is bad. The 23.1% swinging-strike rate might be worse. He is swinging at just half of pitches in the zone and almost 2/3rds of pitches outside the zone.

I would love to see Montes succeed. He was a 15th-round pick that no one was talking about and Coco is a great name. But I suspect he isn’t around for long. His minor league strikeout numbers are only okay and his production hasn’t been impressive except in the PCL. Maybe that translates fine to Coors, but I think he is going to struggle and end up back in the PCL before long.

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Roster Adds

Reese Olson, Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 37.18%

Olson was supposed to start Tuesday night against Atlanta but bad weather earned him an extra night off before facing a tough lineup. But he’s not new to tough matchups. The White Sox are not good (25th in MLB with an 87 wRC+) but they play in a hitter-friendly park. The Phillies also have a hitter-friendly home park and are a league-average offense. And in those two road appearances, he has gone 10 IP with 9 K, 2 BB, 0 HR, and a 2.07 FIP, good for 7.3 P/IP.

I say appearances, not starts because he pitched 5 innings of relief in Philly, though it looks like he is back in the rotation for now.

Oddly, Olson’s brief MLB performance looks nothing like Triple-A. In Charlotte, he was striking out everyone (11.54 K/9) and walking everyone else (5.40 BB/9). In MLB, the walks are fine (1.80 BB/9) but the strikeouts are down (8.1 K/9). This might be a case the K/9 in the minors was misleading – his K% was 26.9% and is only down to 23.7%. The larger drop in K/9 is in part because fewer walks means fewer hitters per inning and fewer chances to get strikeouts.

Put another way, his K/9 went from Clayton Kershaw/Shohei Ohtani territory to Johan Oviedo/José Berríos land, but his K% went from Yu Darvish/Framber Valdez to Corbin Burnes/Aaron Nola. If the walks stay where they are, the strikeouts probably won’t go up much. But if the walks stay where they are, that is fine.

And there is some reason to think he can keep those walks down. He started to bring them down in Triple-A – over his last 20 IP across Triple-A and MLB, he has issued four total walks. He also showed last year that he could control the walks, at least in Double-A.

Olson, a bit like White earlier, struggled in the minors this year but turned things around in his last couple of starts before his promotion. The difference for me with Olson vs. White is that Olson is now succeeding against MLB hitters and seems to have a rotation spot on lockdown, at least for the time being. Given how pitching-starved some of my teams are, I will probably look to add Olson (he’s still rostered in just 55% of leagues), but again only at a low price. If he can maintain this control, he can be successful with only decent strike-out numbers. If he starts to walk guys, the strikeouts will increase, but he’ll turn into a cut before you can benefit from them.

Jonny DeLuca, Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 27.56%

I am excited to see Deluca getting a shot, because he worked his way up the ladder for the Dodgers as one of the less-heralded prospects in a strong system and has earned this opportunity. But the shot he is getting is basically the small side of a platoon, and that limits his value. Even in Ottoneu with 40-man rosters, being the small-side of the platoon makes a guy a tough play. He needs to be good enough against lefties to overcome the fact that he likely gets pulled for a PH in most of his starts. He also needs to put up enough P/G vs. LHP that you want to start him no matter who else you have in your outfield that day. Your 8th or 9th OF can be a guy you only use on Monday or Thursday, but Deluca can’t be that – if the Dodgers face a righty that day, he’s not useful. I just don’t expect him to be good enough against LH to make up for the shortcomings of the role.

Luis Garcia, Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 26.28%

See the write-up on Mahle above? Same same.

Jesús Sánchez, Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 24.36%

Sánchez is the anti-Deluca. He was very heralded, he earned multiple shots, and they have not always gone well. He’s also the strong-side of a platoon and he is mashing righties. We have seen him hot before but never this hot:

And his statcast data backs up what he is doing, as his rolling xwOBA is also higher than ever. He is chasing less and being more aggressive in the zone and while his swinging-strike rate is actually up, his K-rate is steady while his walks are up and his contact quality is much improved. Sánchez is nearly-80% rostered but if he is still sitting out there in your league, he is worth picking up. Yes, we have seen him go cold before, and he might again, but there are enough reasons to believe this is new that it’s worth taking a shot.

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Hot Performers

On April 24, Josh Naylor made this section of the Cold Right Now and I urged patience. He is still rostered in over 99% of leagues, so people have been patient, but his P/G is still under 5.0, so his overall value still looks merely okay. But, since the day that article posted, he has a 145 wRC+. Over the last 30 days, he has the 4th best wRC+ in baseball. He has been remarkably good and if you act fast you might, just might, be able to capitalize on that 4.96 P/G on the season to convince another manager to sell him.

Ke’Bryan Hayes was getting dropped a few weeks ago and is now starting to regain his roster rate, as he has been on fire lately. Since May 6 he has a 116 wRC+, with three of his four HR on the season. He has been even better more recently, putting up more than 11 P/G over his last ten games. Hayes has always hit the ball hard, but this year we are seeing his launch angle start to creep up, which is a great sign. He is also pulling more fly balls, which was maybe the bigger need. In 2021 he had 7 pulled fly balls in 396 PA. In 2022 he had 11 in 560 PA. This year he has 7 already in 257 PA. That is progress. I just don’t think it’s enough progress. More than 250 hitters have more pulled fly balls than Hayes. I would take this opportunity to sell high on Hayes, if someone is seeing this run and wants to buy. This isn’t a power breakout that I am ready to buy and it looks mostly like a BABIP-fueled hot streak.

Over his last seven starts, Domingo Germán has a 2.20 ERA and has even been good in Ottoneu, putting up 5.34 P/IP. But his FIP is 3.73 and his xFIP is 4.59 and this is a time to look closely at xFIP. Germán went four straight starts without a HR to start this stretch and has a 6.4% HR/FB rate over that time. For his career his HR/FB rate is 15.3% and he pitches half his starts in Yankee Stadium. Even if you think his HR/FB rate can stay below his career mark, it’s likey to double what it has been lately. Double his HR output over this stretch and his P/IP drops to 4.24. That isn’t bad! Not at all! But expect something worse than that (he also has a .205 BABIP over this hot stretch) moving forward.