Mike Podhorzer’s 2026 Bold Prediction Recap

It’s bold prediction review time! Refresh your memory with my original theses driving these predictions.

Jac Caglianone Hits 30 Homers | Actual 23

After destroying minor league pitching in early 2025, Caglianone was as hyped as it got leading up to his debut at the beginning of June last year. Then he posted just a .239 wOBA and shockingly low .138 ISO. But the Statcast metrics were far better than the results and suggested he still had big power upside. Sure enough, his Statcast metrics actually improved this season, with a significant increase in HardHit%, maxEV, and higher Barrel%, fueling an ISO jump to .205 and a HR/FB rate up to 21.1%.

But the spike in HR/FB rate was offset by a decline in FB% to a too-low 29.5%, along with a rise in strikeout rate. He also missed time to injury, cutting into his counting stats. Given the spirit of the prediction — that his power was due for major improvement — this was directionally correct, even though I missed the mark by seven homers. No partial credit here, but worth noting.

Verdict: Wrong
0 for 1

Dustin May is a Top 40 Starting Pitcher | Actual rank 216 (includes some dual SP/RP eligibles)

Nope, nope, nope. I was encouraged by his health and increased spring training velocity. His velocity did finish 1.5 MPH higher on his four-seamer and 2.1 MPH higher on his sinker this year, so that stuck. But his Stuff+ only marginally rebounded and still remained far short of his 2020-2023 marks. He did post a 3.99 SIERA, though his xERA was less encouraging. The SIERA underperformance was driven by a career worst BABIP and sub-70% LOB%. If he can’t perform even when healthy and with improved velocity, it’ll be difficult to remain optimistic. But perhaps better BABIP and LOB% luck could at least make him useful in NL-Only leagues.

Verdict: Wrong
0 for 2

Sal Stewart is the Top Fantasy Player in All the Land Goes 25/15 | Actual HR 31 SB 15

YES! He recorded exactly the 15 stolen bases needed to make this a clear “Right” verdict! Thanks Sal! The initial worry was that the team had its usual overflow of hitters and there was at least a chance that the logjam could cost him playing time, particularly if he got off to a slow start offensively. Luckily, that didn’t happen. He didn’t quite maintain his power from his tiny sample debut in 2025, but it was plenty good to clear 30 homers.

There’s really nothing fluky here and everything matches up with his underlying skills. Though perhaps he cuts down on the running since he went just 15-for-23.

Verdict: Right
1 for 3

Randy Vásquez Earns Positive Value | Actual $-8.9

Darn. After turning heads in spring training with significantly increased velocity, I took the leap of faith here thinking he was a new man. He surely was in the season’s first month! He finished April with a 2.94 ERA, while striking out about a batter per inning. That was a massive improvement for him, so it would have been easy to fall for the trap.

Then, he turned right back into the pitcher he’s always been. His strikeout rate finished at just 14.8%, right at his career average, resulting in fewer than 100 strikeouts as usual, even though his fastball velocity did average a career high for the year. His ratios were perfectly fine though and he won 10 games. So most of the weak fantasy value was driven by the severe lack of strikeouts. He probably earned more NL-Only value than he ever had in the past, so directionally, this was probably a very slight win. But not good enough.

Verdict: Wrong
1 for 4

Cal Raleigh is Not a Top 5 Catcher | Actual rank 16

Wow, I had totally forgotten I had made this bold prediction! Stinks to have this one come true considering I made him my top pick in Tout Wars Champions. Obviously, we all knew there would be some regression this year after he posted so many career bests in 2025, I ran out of fingers to count them. But I don’t think anyone predicted he’d fall this hard. I’m sure playing through injury had something to do with is and he also recorded his fewest PA since 2022, cutting into his counting stats.

But one of the reasons I made this prediction was his competition. I named five significantly cheaper catcher options I thought had a realistic chance to finish inside the top five instead. Of course, I was wrong about all of those, though one of the names did finish ranked eighth and certainly wasn’t drafted that early.

Does Raleigh now go from potentially overvalued after an obvious career year to undervalued in 2027? We won’t know until draft and auction season begins. But, he didn’t lose any BatSpd, still produced a mid-teen Barrel% and continued to hit a massive rate of fly balls which should give him a better chance of returning to the 30-homer plateau. I would be surprised if he didn’t get back there next season.

Verdict: Right
2 for 5

Kodai Senga Strikes Out 200 Batters | Actual 75

Holy cow, from a prediction of 200 to an actual of just 75. Sure, he did miss time to injury, but he also pitched himself out of a rotation spot and spent half the year in the bullpen (even recording eight saves!). What originally excited me here was a spring training velocity boost, which did carry over, but unfortunately it didn’t help him to throw strikes. He finished the season with a bloated 14.5% walk rate and that’s far too high to maintain a rotation spot. At age 34 next year, he may no longer get a chance as a starter.

Verdict: Wrong
2 for 6

Logan O’Hoppe, Edgar Quero, and Jordan Walker Combine For 60 Home Runs | Actual 36

Gosh darn, I just had to combine Walker with other names (reminder these names were Driveline Baseball graduates)! Walker ended up contributing 29 of the group’s total, as O’Hoppe, who hit 39 homers over the previous two seasons, completely fell apart, hitting just four, and Quero’s power continued to be non-existent, as he finished with just three.

Heck, after April, it looked like Walker might be able to reach my prediction all by himself! He launched nine by the end of the month and then had a strong May, but only swatted six home runs. He wouldn’t hit more than five in any other month and limped to the finish line with just two in September.

Walker will be a fascinating name next year. His April and May looks like he was en route to the massive breakout we’ve been waiting for. He faded in June, but his first two months were so good that he finished the first half with a .380 wOBA. He was solid again in July and excellent in August, but his September really brought down his second half line, which finished at just a .291 wOBA. Are fantasy owners going to heavily weigh that second half, and particularly the September, expecting regression next year? Or will they acknowledge this is finally the version we all expected and give him credit for being a legit 30ish homer guy?

My bigger question is whether he could really steal 20+ bases again. He looks way too big to be attempting so many steals!

Verdict: Wrong
2 for 7

Trevor Rogers, Andrew Abbott, and Noah Cameron All Post 4.00+ ERAs | Actual Rogers 4.03 Abbott 4.61 Cameron 4.11

Juuuuuuuuust by a whisker, nailed this one. I made it difficult for myself by including three names again here, but luckily this didn’t end up like the one above. All three of these names posted sub-3.00 ERAs in 2025, but dramatically overperformed their expected ERA metrics. You were probably able to find many, many people trying to justify the low ERAs with explanations like “he’s really good at suppressing hard contact”, or “he’s a pitcher, not a thrower”, etc.

This year, Rogers slightly underperformed both his SIERA and xERA, marks that only marginally increased from last year. His BABIP completely reverted toward league average, while his LOB% reversed from far above league average to below.

Abbott’s skills deteriorated as his strikeout rate fell and walk rate spiked, and while he once again overperformed his expected ERA metrics, this time the gap was far narrower and in a normal range.

Cameron’s skills were almost identical, as he posted very similar SIERA and xERA marks. However, his BABIP jumped closer to league average, but still below, while his LOB% plummeted, moving similarly to Rogers’.

You’ll potentially see similar bold predictions next year involving 2026’s luck leaders like Eduardo Rodriguez and Nick Martinez.

Verdict: Right
3 for 8

Heliot Ramos Outearns Jo Adell | Actual ranks Ramos 91 Adell 31

This prediction was predicated more on my bullishness on Ramos than any sort of bearishness on Adell. Interestingly, Adell actually disappointed with his mere 23 home runs, which should have given Ramos an easy opportunity to outearn him. Alas, that did not happen, as he was an even bigger disappointment and also missed a significant chunk of time to injury.

Ramos’ Statcast power metrics still look superb and getting out of San Francisco should be good for his power results. But he’ll have to earn an everyday job after posting just a .286 wOBA against right-handers.

Verdict: Wrong
3 for 9

Shota Imanaga Outearns Bryan Woo | Actual ranks Imanaga 37 Woo 46

Another seeming longshot win! To me, these two pitchers were very similar. Both had the promise of good, but not great, strikeout rates, along with elite control, suppressing WHIP. So really, it would ultimately come down to luck affecting the ratios, luck affecting their win totals, and health.

BUT! Imanaga’s velocity was up during spring training and it made me more confident in a strikeout rate rebound, beating his projections. On the other hand, Woo’s underwhelming CSW% did not support his 2025 strikeout rate, so I thought that could be due to decline. The combination of the two made me believe each could post similar strikeout rates. That meant the pair were much closer in projected value than they were being drafted.

Ultimately, the two actually performed scarily similarly. They posted identical strikeout rates and WHIP marks, were within 1 strikeout and win of each other, and were within just 1.1 innings of each other. That’s really pretty incredible considering my original thesis. You couldn’t have picked a closer match of pitchers if you tried, and I did so before the season! Continuing to amaze, they were also within .01 in SIERA, while Imanaga’s xERA was just 0.13 higher.

What it came down to was a low 66.2% LOB% for Woo inflating his ERA above his expected marks. That’s literally it. Imanaga was once again over 80%, and posted a low BABIP, but that was partially offset by the highest HR/FB rate of his career.

Verdict: Right
4 for 10

***

I don’t remember what my previous record was for correct predictions, but it’s definitely not five. So I either set a new personal high with four or tied my previous high. Either way, getting four of 10 bold predictions right is crazy. I typically get two, maaaaaaaybe three, right. It’s too bad that none of these winning predictions actually helped any of my teams. Although I owned some names like Stewart and Imanaga in LABR Mixed, the rest of that team was too terrible for it to matter.

See ya’ll next bold prediction season!