Justin Mason’s 2026 Bold Predictions Recap

With the season over, we now look back before we first look back and see what we got right and what we got wrong. Today, we begin by looking at my Bold Predictions article from March. Spoiler Alert: It did not go great. 

Nasim Nuñez steals 50 bases

Coming into drafts, I saw Nunez has a massive defensive upgrade for the Nationals and he stole 45 bases between AAA and the Majors in 2025, so there was a lot of stolen base upside in the profile. Nunez finished the season with one home run, a .209/.291/.244 triple slash and 49 stolen bases. So, while this prediction ended up not being correct, the thought process was right and it was just one stolen base short. The triple slash is ugly and while Nunez does make a lot of contact, too much of it is weak and he may struggle with playing time at some point if he cannot improve the quality of the contact he does make. 

Verdict: Incorrect, but close. 

Andrew Vaughn is a top 10 first baseman
Vaughn was pretty good when he was on the field, hitting .306/.390/.444, but with only six home runs in 331 plate appearances. He missed time with injury that may have sapped some of the power. The bigger issue was the emergence of Jake Bauers limited Vaughn to mostly being a short-side platoon bat after returning from the IL. Vaughn could be in for a bigger role with Bauers slated for free agency in 2027, but unless he is a full time player, it’s hard to believe he will ever reach the ceiling that was once believed to be there. 

Verdict: Incorrect. 

Ryne Nelson is a top 30 starter
I have always been a big Nelson guy and really thought he would be able to build on an intriguing 2025. Unfortunately, he struggled to start the season before hurting his elbow and missing most of the remaining season. He was able to return and throw four innings in relief at the end of the season, but at this point, there is no reason to believe the breakout is coming. 

Verdict: Incorrect. 

Zebby Matthews is a top 25 starter
Matthews showed a lot of upside in his 2025 sample with a great fastball/slider combo and other pitches that were still developing. The stuff disappeared in 2026. Whether there is regression or an injury, he just was not the same guy this season. Unless we see something different in spring, there is no reason to gamble on him. 

Verdict: Incorrect. 

Nick Lodolo is the top starting pitcher for the Reds
Ok, so my thought process here was way more sound than it looks, I promise. I saw both Hunter Greene and Chase Burns as massive injury risks and Lodolo as a pitcher that has shown great stuff and the ability to put together a full season. Unfortunately, while I was right on Greene, I was dead wrong on both Burns and Lodolo. I still believe the long term health risk is there, but I shouldn’t have ignored Lodolo’s spotty health track record either. 

Verdict: Mostly Incorrect. 

Brett Baty is a top 10 second baseman
Baty seemed to be primed to deliver on the potential he had as a prospect but needed to find playing time in New York. He found that playing time, but the power metrics regressed and he was unable to build upon the promising 2025 season. He was better at the end of the season, hitting .333/.417/.608 with three home runs in his 60 September plate appearances, so there is some hope still there, but not as much as I previously had for him. 

Verdict: Incorrect. 

Jackson Chourio goes 35/35
In spite of missing the first month of the season with injury, Chourio put up his best season hitting .291/.351/.487 with 25 home runs and 23 stolen bases. If you give him another 100 plate appearances for the time missed and he would have been close to a 30/27 type season. It still falls short of the 35/35 year that I was hoping for, but it shows that the 22-year-old is close to super stardom in real baseball and in fantasy. 

Verdict: Incorrect, but promising. 

Pete Crow-Armstrong is not a top 40 outfielder
So this is another massive whiff for me. PCA not only was a top 40 outfielder, but he was the #1 hitter in fantasy in 2026. So, what went so wrong for me? Well, Crow-Armstrong changed the type of hitter he was. He lowered his in-zone swing rate from 80% to 68% and by becoming more selective in the zone, he waited for the type of pitches he ate up. He also became more patient outside of the zone. In 2025 and 2026, PCA was one of the least patient hitters in baseball which is what led to the massive second half slump in 2026. The improvement in approach paid massive dividends for him and he became a better hitter because of it. 

Verdict: Extremely Incorrect. 

Kyle Stowers is not a top 50 outfielder
Stowers was a popular outfield pick after having a breakout season in 2025 with 25 home runs and a .288/.368/.544 triple slash in 457 plate appearances. However, I saw the poor contact skills as a major flaw in his game. The flaw continued to plague him this season, hitting .239/.331/.459 but he was still able to swat 21 home runs in just 512 plate appearances. If not for a couple of IL stints, he would have gotten inside to the top 50 at the position. 

Verdict: Correct, but close to being incorrect. 

Coby Mayo hits 30 home runs
Power has never really been in question for Mayo and that was on display this season, hitting 24 home runs in 454 plate appearances for the Orioles. However, the reason he only got to 454 plate appearances is because of his massive struggles versus breaking and offspeed pitches as well as hitting .177/.244/.323 against right handed pitching. There is still promise as he does crush lefties, but until he makes strides versus righties, he won’t be reliable for fantasy. 

Verdict: Incorrect.