Jeff Zimmerman’s 2026 Bold Prediction Recap

by
October 5, 2026


David Banks-Imagn Images

Here is my bold predictions piece from March, but let’s dive right into the recap:

1. The baby gloves come off, and the Nationals allow James Wood to break the MLB strikeout record.

Right idea, wrong player.

Wood ended up with just 179 K this season after missing most of August.

Colson Montgomery stepped up with 227 K to beat the previous high held by Mark Reynolds by four strikeouts.

0 for 1

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects. 6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.) 7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only. 8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO. 9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members. 10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features! We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. In case you didn't read all that, here's the short version. Membership includes:
✓Ad-free browsing
✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles
✓Historical & platoon projections
✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps
✓One-click data exports
✓Customizable player-page dashboards
✓Dark & Classic site modes
✓Weekly Members-only mailbag
✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review
✓Optional homepage photo removal
✓Gift articles to non-members

2. Hunter Brown will not be a top-40 SP while being drafted in the top 10.

Brown struggled this season (3.19 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 4.6 BB/9) and ended up as the 68th-rated starter. He was fine, just not elite. Additionally, he only threw 107 IP after missing a month and a half on the IL.

1 for 2

3. Of the pitchers being drafted in the top 450, Nolan McLean will be the biggest WHIP drag.

McLean had a chance to take the title by upping his walk rate from 3.0 BB/9 to 3.5 BB/9. He kept his WHIP in check by dropping his groundball rate from 61% to 46%. While groundballs don’t go for home runs, they are more likely to be hits.

Of the pitchers drafted before pick 450, a couple of Reds topped the list: Brady Singer (157 IP of 1.59 WHIP) and Andrew Abbott (166 IP of 1.45 WHIP).

1 for 3

4. Ryan McMahon will out-homer Nick Kurtz.

Kurtz: 21 HR
McMahan: 11 HR

I bought in way too much to McMahon 1.2 mph AvgEV jump to 93.3 mph. He lost all those gains and then some with a 90.5 AvgEV.

1 for 4

5. Agustín Ramírez is back in the minors by the season’s end.

Ramírez was back in the minors by May 4th. He’s not a catcher and looks like a part-time DH at this point.

2 for 5

6. Jesús Luzardo, Nathan Eovaldi, and Kyle Bradish will all be top-15 starting pitchers.

  • Jesús Luzardo: 7th
  • Nathan Eovaldi: 66th
  • Kyle Bradish: 196th

Injuries (shocking) and home runs (1.5 HR/9) got to Eovaldi, but otherwise, he was himself.

As for Bradish, he forgot how to throw strikes, sending his strikeouts down (13.2 K/9 to 8.3 K/9) and walks up (2.8 BB/9 to 4.1 BB/9).

2 for 6

7. Ceddanne Rafaela becomes a 30/30 bat and will be a top-10 bat.

Rafaela didn’t take a step forward, but backwards, with his Barrel% dropping from 9.2% to 5.4%. Also, he was unsuccessful on the bases with a 65% success rate (17 SB, 9 CS). In the second half, he only attempted eight steals, with five being successful.

2 for 7

8. Only one of Nolan McLean, Chase Burns, Jacob Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler, Trey Yesavage, and Bubba Chandler will be a top-40 starting pitcher.

A huge whiff for me here. Four of these pitchers (McLean, Burns, Misiorowski, Schlittler) were in the top-21, with Misiorowski and Schlittler being the top-2 starters. Maybe my lack of faith in this group is why I struggled with pitching ratios this past season.

2 for 8

9. If only counted as a pitcher, Shohei Ohtani will be a top-5 starting pitcher.

Ohtani couldn’t stay healthy and only made 14 starts this season, but still finished as the 23rd-ranked pitcher. He was elite with a 1.79 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9.

2 for 9

10. Cody Ponce 폰세 is the best starting pitcher for the Blue Jays.

There is no way to be the best at anything after lasting two innings before getting hurt.

2 for 10





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

1 Comment
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
GreggMember since 2020
9 hours ago

2 out of 10 for bold predictions is not a bad hit rate!

2