Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 7/2/2019

We chatted. Behold the transcript!

3:57
Brad Johnson: This appears to be working today. We’ll get started in a few moments.

4:01
Chonk: Disregarding positions, would you rather have Scooter or Swanson ROS in a standard points league?

4:02
Brad Johnson: I would take the gamble on gennett. I do think he’s pretty likely to struggle for the next 2-4 weeks

4:02
Brad Johnson: He really rushed through the rehab assignment without showing any real signs of being ready

4:02
Daro: Cease worth to grab in 12 teams league?

4:03
Brad Johnson: Yes, he’s on the cusp of promotion.

4:03
The Final Boss: Chances of Taillon actually pitching again this season? I feel skeptical.

4:03
Brad Johnson: At all? 50/50

4:03
Brad Johnson: a meaningful amount? 10-20%

4:04
Bruce: Whats the best stat to look at to identify which pitchers have a real ability to suppress HRs?

4:04
Brad Johnson: I usually look for a history of high GB rates and low HR/FB

4:05
Brad Johnson: There isn’t a magical peripheral for finding HR prevention. It tends to feel very random for the guys who aren’t clearly HR prone

4:05
Brad Johnson: I’ve been trying to solve this for year for ottoneu FGpts.

4:05
Ageism: Since “Catcher is a wasteland no longer” – is it a good idea to drop steady old hands Yadier Molina/Buster Posey for Alfaro, Severino, or similar? Which newer names would you drop them for?

4:05
Brad Johnson: I’d probably keep the old guys

4:05
Pat’s Bat: Austin Riley for Shane Bieber?  Both can be kept for the next 4 year’s.

4:05
Brad Johnson: What do you need now?

4:06
Brad Johnson: I don’t think you’ll have much cause to worry about their keeper status unless it’s a deep format.

4:06
Dodger Blue: Do you think Willie Calhoun will still be the hitter we thought he would be?

4:06
Brad Johnson: Well, at what point in time?

4:06
Brad Johnson: First we thought he’d be fine, then he was getting Hoskins comps, then everybody thought he would suck

4:07
Brad Johnson: I think he’ll be a 110 wRC+ bat with a low-ish chance to turn into something like a Khris Davis

4:07
Brad Johnson: Given his lack of defensive position, that’s not guaranteed to play

4:07
Turgid: Is JP Crawford breaking out?

4:08
Brad Johnson: Sort of. I mean, this is always who he was. He takes time to adjust to each level of the ladder. The only thing that’s changed this year is his quality of contact which is a matter of comfort more than an actual breakout.

4:08
Brad Johnson: Obviously, the .396 BABIP will regress

4:09
Brad Johnson: He should be considered a .240/.340/.390 hitter

4:09
Slamboni: In win now mode and need pitching. I have Bregman, Polanco and Ketel Marte, should I trade 5 years of Tatis Jr for 4 years of Berrios and 1 year of Minor? I need pitching, but I feel like I might be using my best chip for that

4:10
Brad Johnson: That is a steep price for a not-so-attractive return

4:10
Brad Johnson: Your take on Minor obviously matter. I still think he’s just a guy.

4:10
Brad Johnson: Not especially different than Jake Odorizzi or Julio Teheran or any other not-terrible arm on a team that supplies run support.

4:11
Brad Johnson: I know the results have been impressive, but I’m not seeing enough peripheral improvement to call them anything more than a series of good outings

4:11
Brad Johnson: For me, I’d be shopping Tatis in a kingmaker move.

4:12
Brad Johnson: Send me Trout and Scherzer and Verlander (presumably all 1-year guys). I have to feel like the trade wins me the league to move Tatis.

4:12
Matt: Whats a good name of an under the radar reliever for holds leagues

4:12
Brad Johnson: Austin Adams could turn into a closer any time now

4:12
Brad Johnson: oh, speaking of…

4:12
Mmm Mmm Good: Think Austin Adams can be counted on to provide good ratios RoS?  Looks dominant in his 20 IP so far.

4:12
Brad Johnson: I’m not sure I’d “count” on him

4:12
Brad Johnson: Or any other pitcher in 2019

4:13
Brad Johnson: I thought his teammate Anthony Bass was looking like a breakout guy and then he suddenly imploded

4:13
Brad Johnson: That said, I have a lot of shares of Adams, and I’m very happy about it.

4:13
Bite marks: Deep league dynasty, looking to make a win-now move. What pitchers would you look for in exchange for 2 top 15 prospects?

4:14
Brad Johnson: Assuming deep means something like 20 team, you should be able to take your pick of available pitchers for 1 top 15 prospect. Obviously you’re not going to get a Scherzer-type from a fellow contender, but anybody rebuilding should be happy to get a Rodgers+throw-ins for an elite, mid-30s pitcher.

4:15
Brad Johnson: (most of the best pitchers are mid-30s)

4:15
Guest: 10 team H2H points keeper league – would you take a $10 Adalberto and $10 Brendan McKay for a $23 Jose Berrios? I would be receiving Berrios, and want to shore up my pitching; my would-be trade partner is playing for next year, so in theory is thinking about keepers. thanks, Brad.

4:15
Brad Johnson: I would not. Mondesi is soooo money in H2H

4:15
Mmm Mmm Good: Sans context, is Betts-for-Cole a fair swap of value?

4:16
Brad Johnson: should be a small add-on to Cole

4:16
I Used To Be Mel Clarke: Is German Marquez and Jack Flaherty fair for Rafael Devers in a standard head to head 10-team league?

4:16
Brad Johnson: I see that as a fine swap if you’re drowning in pitching

4:16
Brad Johnson: This being 2019 and the league being only 10 teams deep leads me to prefer the pitching side on this one

4:16
Brad Johnson: The 11th best 3B is not too far off Devers.

4:17
Brad Johnson: What I’m saying is you might be able to get very similar for one of them

4:17
Will: Is Wander Franco worth hanging on to in a 4 keeper league? 2 round penalty each year, but I would get 3 keeper options from his MLB debut

4:17
Brad Johnson: What you’re describing does not sound like an ideal scenario in which to own Franco

4:18
Brad Johnson: He’s going to soak up a keeper slot for at least 2 years before reaching the majors at which point he has to supply very instant gratification or else he has no chance of returning value

4:19
Brad Johnson: That said, if your decision point is between Franco and say Matt Carpenter, then perhaps you could take a gamble on him for one more year.

4:19
Brad Johnson: I’m assuming you have a NA slot or he’s otherwise not soaking up a BN slot

4:19
AJ: Do we need to change Otto FGPTS? It seems like HR ruin every SP

4:20
Brad Johnson: I’ve always thought the HR penalty is a tad harsh, but I also don’t think FGpts are broken in 2019.

4:20
Brad Johnson: I’m running the same 5.00 pts/IP I’ve had in just about every year I’ve played

4:20
Cito’s Mustache: Thanks for chatting, Brad. Is it time to cut Matt Carpenter in my weekly dynasty points league? His 3.01 Fantasy points/game is still borderline rosterable, so even a slight uptick in production deserves an active UT spot. Statcast metrics don’t suggest any sort of rebound like last season, though. I’ve got Schwarber, Cron and Walker available on waivers. Am I making this more difficult than it should be?

4:21
Brad Johnson: On the face of it, I wouldn’t cut Carpenter in a 12-team weekly league. That said, I would happily trade him for Schwarber so that is a move you can make. If you want to. It’s not a must-do.

4:21
Mmm Mmm Good: Giovanny Gallegos is a top-25 RP for ratios RoS.

4:22
Brad Johnson: I’ve seen some Gallegos hype, but I’ve yet to actually SEE him

4:22
Brad Johnson: He’s a homer prone FB pitcher who doesn’t limit hard contact

4:22
Brad Johnson: So… be careful

4:23
Brad Johnson: Seems he’s edging towards 50/50 fastball/slider usage which is why his K-rate has spiked.

4:23
kevinthecomic: 16-team, dynasty, keep forever, 5×5 h2h league:  Is Daniel Lynch, Lourdes Gurriel and Brennen Davis enough for Josh Donaldson?

4:23
kevinthecomic: 16-team, dynasty, keep forever, 5×5 h2h league:  Is Nolan Jones, Jazz Chisholm and Darwinzon Hernandez enough for Jacob deGrom?

4:23
Brad Johnson: These are reasonable frameworks

4:24
Brad Johnson: There are too many factors at play for me to just say “yes, your rival must accept these offers”

4:24
Brad Johnson: I think the Donaldson offer is way more likely to be accepted since there’s a plausible chance Gurriel is already better than Donaldson.

4:25
AJ: Where the heck can I find SIERA?

4:25
Brad Johnson: Any played page in the Batted Ball table

4:25
Lewie Brinny: How are you viewing Mad Bum? Alot of his metrics are starting to move back towards the 2016-2017 numbers when he was very solid. I know some things still aren’t great but how do you evaluate him? Must start everywhere but Coors? Play the matchups? etc.

4:26
Brad Johnson: If I had him, I’d use him in any non-Coors

4:26
Brad Johnson: With some avoidance of the Dodgers perhaps

4:26
Brad Johnson: But I wouldn’t go out of my way to acquire him unless you’re trying to buy low before a trade to the Brewers, Twins, or Yankees

4:26
Mookie Butts: Raisel Iglesias owner here. Its looking like his closer status with the Reds is shaky at best…would they be crazy to trade him? I’m looking for a bright side and haven’t heard anything about him being traded

4:27
Brad Johnson: I think they’ll look into it but won’t force anything.

4:27
Brad Johnson: The simple truth is that he’s a well-paid reliever and those aren’t really worth anything in the trade market

4:27
Brad Johnson: Remember, the Nationals traded almost nothing for 4.5 months of Kelvin Herrera last year (he was pitching well at the time)

4:28
Rocco: Is Betts going to heat up at some point?  He’s way underperforming his ADP

4:28
Brad Johnson: Pretty much everybody besides Mike Trout underperforms a top 10 ADP.

4:29
Brad Johnson: I know it’s frustrating to not get a repeat of 2018, but this has been a good season from Betts. Probably around his 40th percentile. He’s going finish with close to 30 HR, 20 SB, a .270 AVG, .390 OBP, and around 200 R+RBI

4:29
Brad Johnson: Barring injury

4:30
Brad Johnson: I can’t find any reason to complain about his performance even if I do wish I picked Yelich instead.

4:30
Elwood Blues: How much optimism do you retain for Jose Ramirez?

4:30
Brad Johnson: 75% of the full optimism I had a month ago

4:31
Brad Johnson: I still think he’s going to turn a corner, but maybe he’s playing through something like the stress fracture Cesar Hernandez had in his foot last season

4:31
Gioneato: Take a look at Scherzer vs. Giolito advanced metrics down the FG page. I DARE you. Just saying, there’s a good deal of similarities. Obviously not the same, but trending that way…

4:31
Brad Johnson: presented without comment

4:31
Mmm Mmm Good: Let’s get down to brass tacks then:  A. Adams or Gallegos RoS?

4:31
Brad Johnson: I would take Adams

4:31
baseballdude: cavan biggio or scooter gennett ROS in a points league?

4:31
Brad Johnson: Biggio. One of my favorite new guys

4:32
Brad Johnson: I like Kevin Cron a lot too

4:32
Brad Johnson: Note: favorite does not mean best

4:32
baseballdude: hansel robles or luke jackson ROS?

4:32
Brad Johnson: Tricky… I think the Braves are much more likely to replace Jackson with Minter or a trade acquisition.

4:32
Brad Johnson: But I also think Jackson is a better pitcher than Robles

4:32
Turgid: I’d say Arenado consistently returns his top 10 ADP

4:33
Brad Johnson: That’s a fair point.

4:33
baseballdude: is franmil roster worthy in a redraft 12 team H2H points league with 3 OF and 1 UTIL spot?

4:33
Brad Johnson: Can roster him if you need power and can sacrifice AVG

4:34
Brad Johnson: especially if the bench is deep enough to adjust when he’s randomly sitting

4:34
Brad Johnson: Of course, this also means you have to check lineups at like 6:45 every day

4:34
Oliver: Hate paying for saves, but in a year like this year with so few shut down closers, would you be willing to pay up for a top option like Chapman in a 12 team deep bench league?

4:34
Brad Johnson: Depends what paying means

4:34
Brad Johnson: I’ve always found the best way to acquire closers is as a secondary bit of a blockbuster

4:34
Trader Jack: What do you think of a trade of my Carter Kieboom for his Stephen Strasburg in a 16 team dynasty league? I also have Luis Urias, Ronny Mauricio, Cesar Hernandez and Francisco Lindor as far as MIF goes and I have a pitching need

4:35
Brad Johnson: Solid win-now move

4:35
Brad Johnson: You’ll regret it later

4:35
Brad Johnson: It’s fair

4:35
scott: would you drop glasnow in a 10 team league?

4:35
Brad Johnson: I take it you don’t have an IL slot for him

4:35
Brad Johnson: Yes

4:36
Gil Hodges: I bid you a belated Happy Bobby Bonilla Day!

4:36
Brad Johnson: It’s funny how it’s turned sour on Twitter

4:36
Brad Johnson: If something is joyful, somebody has to go and ruin it

4:37
Brad Johnson: In this case, by pointing out that 1. lots of players have Bonilla-style contracts and 2. These contracts are a trick to underpay the player.

4:37
Cmon People Now: Old-school league where players are tied and minimal moves allowed. 5×5, QS, OBP. I have Mondesi, McNeil, B-Reynolds, Hiura, Didi and Haniger. Gotta drop 1 or 2 of them.

4:38
Brad Johnson: Reynolds would be my first cut

4:38
Brad Johnson: Surprisingly, I don’t think he can sustain a .437 BABIP

4:39
Brad Johnson: He’s definitely very interesting though… shame to let him go

4:39
Brad Johnson: From there, I’d delay the second move as long as possible to get more info on Hiura, Didi, and Haniger

4:39
Brad Johnson: Mondesi is definitely NOT the cut despite it being an OBP league

4:40
Brad Johnson: McNeil could be since he doesn’t HR or SB

4:40
Brad Johnson: But it’s probably one of the others

4:40
baseballdude: re: Franmil. that was a H2H weekly points league, not a daily roto/categories league.

4:40
Brad Johnson: Oh, that’s less attractive

4:40
Guest: Who’s your bet to close in San Fran after Smith gets dealt?

4:41
Brad Johnson: Melancon?

4:41
Brad Johnson: The thing is… it could be any of Melancon, Watson, or Dyson

4:41
Brad Johnson: Except they’re all pretty likely to be traded too

4:42
Turgid: I’m in a long-running, highly competitive league. A friend took over a team this year, and honestly he just doesn’t get it. He’s in dead last. Hardly even trying. Not sure he even comes back next season. Is it morally reprehensible to try to trade with him? I’m in 2nd place and could really use his Charlie Morton…

4:42
Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t say it’s reprehensible, but it could quickly drift into shady

4:42
Luck Dragons: Vogelbach or H Dozier ROS?

4:42
Brad Johnson: I like Dozier more

4:43
baseballdude: i have domingo german coming back from IL this week in a H2H points league.  8 max SP roster limit.  which of these do you drop for german?: berrios, clevinger, giolito, bieber, minor, marquez, canning, luzardo.

4:43
Brad Johnson: It’s Luzardo or German

4:44
Rocco: Meadows has gone ice cold.  Was the early season version of him a mirage, or he’s just in a funk?

4:44
Brad Johnson: I think the league has adjusted to him to an extent. He also claims to have been distracted by the All Star race so it’s possible he’s in his own head

4:45
Brad Johnson: Baseball is, after all, a game of adjustments and counter-adjustments

4:45
Brad Johnson: Meadows has shown sufficient ability to adjust

4:45
Camargoat: Is Diego Castillo going to get save opportunities when he returns from injury?

4:45
Brad Johnson: I’m not confident he will, but I’ll never rule out anything in that Rays bullpen

4:45
Kris: Will dietrich keep supplying homers?

4:46
Brad Johnson: I’m not even sure Dietrich will keep supply starts now that the Reds are full strength in the infield.

4:46
Brad Johnson: There is some room for LF starts for now, but they’ve got Phil Ervin starting today in a very Dietrich-friendly matchup

4:47
Ryan: Do you know anything about Jose Urquidy?

4:48
Brad Johnson: That’s one to ask Alex Chamberlain. I know the scouting report Longenhagen forwarded to us which included a good spin-rate and a plus splitter. Read as a reliever to me, but that’s also similar to what Montas was doing before the PED bust

4:48
PAL: La Stella or Biggio RoS?

4:48
Brad Johnson: I’d go Biggio. You could easily argue either side though. La Stella is probably a higher floor.

4:48
Josh: O/U 10 starts ROS for Wil Myers?

4:48
Brad Johnson: Obviously over

4:48
Mike F.: Do I trade Vlad Jr. for Boyd in h2h cat? Need some pitching and have Ohtani and Justin Turner at my UTIL spot

4:49
Brad Johnson: This is re-draft? I think you can do that, but I would first ask about some more premium arms.

4:49
Turgid: You starting Gallen today? Watched his last start and his stuff looked so dirty. But he seemed to take too many pitches to put guys away. Lots of 2 strike foul balls.

4:49
Brad Johnson: Well I’m not using him in DFS and despite being the first to find him this spring, I didn’t roster any shares

4:50
Tommy La Sort of: Kelley and Martin gonna hold off Leclerc?

4:50
Brad Johnson: That’s more up to Leclerc tbh

4:50
baseballdude: the two pirates players out of nowhere (reynolds and newman) rosterable in a 12 team points league redraft?

4:50
Brad Johnson: Yes, but they weren’t out of nowhere.

4:50
Brad Johnson: The Pirates just don’t get much press

4:50
Mike F. : Yeah redraft, tried for some top guys already just seeing if it would be worth it to pull the trigger if it came down to it

4:51
Brad Johnson: Maybe try to get a bad closer thrown in with Boyd

4:51
Brad Johnson: Or some other marginal, back-end upgrade

4:51
DW: For points leagues where K, BB, 2bs and 3bs are counted is Benitendi still a top OF? He feels very sneaky in this format.

4:51
Brad Johnson: Uh, my head hurts. Yes, that sounds like it was made for Benintendi and JoRam and McNeil

4:51
Josh: Optimistic Joe Jimenez becomes the closer and performs adequately?

4:52
Brad Johnson: I don’t see anyone else to take the job if/when Greene is traded. But I wouldn’t expect much beyond strikeouts

4:53
Pat G: I’m in a 16 team dynasty and have a large window of contention (Acuna, Soto, Devers, Albies, Bregman, Correa, Rutschman, Lux, Snell, Taillon, Flaherty, Urias, Kopech, Honeywell, Puk)

I’m in 2nd and looking like I’ll coast to the playoffs.

Should I trade Acuna for Benintendi, Wheeler, and Osuna? Is this enough value in a keep forever? Should I even be considering moving Acuna at all or just hold tight?

4:53
Brad Johnson: Sit on Acuna

4:53
Brad Johnson: If you had problems to solve, it would be one thing

4:53
Brad Johnson: Since you’re coasting, there’s no reason to disaggregate

4:54
Brad Johnson: If anything, try to turn like Correa+Albies into Lindor or something.

4:54
Logan: 16 team points dynasty, is it time to drop Kikuchi or is it past time?

4:54
Brad Johnson: Since it’s dynasty, there might be a point to stashing him

4:54
Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t use him though

4:54
Matt W: Need one start for this week, Stripling vs Arizona or Clevinger @KC? Clavy’s last start just a blip?

4:55
Brad Johnson: I’d go with Clevinger

4:55
Brad Johnson: Probably a blip, though his command was definitely shaky

4:56
Andrew: Any thoughts on whether Leclerc will regain the closer’s role in Texas? In a 10-team roto with Colome and C-Mart as my other closers, I’ve held. But obviously I feel like I need to make a move for a closer. My SP (DeGrom, Syndergaard, Corbin, Kershaw, Boyd, Soroka, and now McKay) are decent, where I feel I can trade one for saves help, particularly if I can’t count on Leclerc anymore.

4:56
Brad Johnson: In a 10-team format, I’d look to trade Leclerc with the waiver wire rather than weakening your rotation. Unless somebody wants to get aggressive offering for McKay

4:56
PAL: Eloy has looked like a Soler clone instead of the generational combination of hit tool and light tower power he was supposed to be (i’m alarmed by the low contact rate). What’s his outlook RoS?

4:57
Brad Johnson: I don’t really see the Soler comp, but it’s probably fair to wonder if he was ready. I really didn’t expect him up until around now-ish.

4:57
Brad Johnson: He’s also battled some injuries so that’s made adjustment a challenge

4:58
Brad Johnson: The bat reminds me of Javy Baez if you ignore the better plate discipline and contact rates.

4:59
Brad Johnson: I’d expect more of the same this season with a small chance for a breakout at any time

5:00
Brad Johnson: Ok, I’m going to throw in the towel. I think last week’s chat scared everybody off.

5:02
Brad Johnson: As a reminder, I have a Patreon with a Discord channel where you can get your questions answered pretty much continuously. https://www.patreon.com/BaseballATeam





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