Jake Mailhot’s 2023 Ottoneu Third Base Rankings

We’ll finish up the infield rankings with a look at third base.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

The contours of third base are pretty similar to second base: a group of really strong contributors at the top of the position with a pretty significant drop off after the first eight names. If you’re looking for a player to provide consistent production throughout the year, targeting one of those top names has to be a priority. There are a few other guys who are also eligible at one of the middle infield positions who aren’t listed above who would fit into the top tiers at this position (Gunnar Henderson, Max Muncy, etc.), but you’re probably better off using them at 2B or SS unless you have multiple options at that respective position.

Behind the top guys at the position, there is a small group of mid-tier third baseman made up of older veterans and younger prospects. Once you get past the top 14 or so players, you’ll get your standard mix of young prospects, older veterans, and part-time players. Because the cliff comes so quickly, if you miss out on one of the top options, you’ll want to try and get a handful of lower tier guys to ensure you have contingency plans in case of emergency.

One Guy I Like More than Chad
Matt Chapman – Chapman bounced back a bit in his first season in Toronto after a dismal season in 2021. His overall line was still well below his two outstanding seasons in 2018–19, but there are signs he’s working his way back towards that elite production again. Most importantly, his plate discipline improved significantly in 2022. He cut his overall swing rate by three points back to where it was earlier in his career, and enjoyed corresponding improvements to his chase rate, swinging strike rate, and contact rate. None of these changes to his approach affected his excellent contact quality; in fact, he improved his hard hit rate by nine points. All these metrics moving in the right direction are definitely a positive sign and the changes to the fences at Rogers Centre should help even more.

Two Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Jose Miranda – Miranda had a lot of positive things go his way during his big league debut last year. From June onwards, he posted a 130 wRC+ with some decent power. The issue I see is with his aggressive approach at the plate. He has good bat-to-ball skills, but he swings far too often at bad pitches he can’t do any damage on. His chase rate was over 33% but his contact rate on those pitches out of the zone wasn’t nearly at the level of someone like Luis Arraez or Steven Kwan. This aggression has led to a pretty low walk rate throughout his professional career and a major league strikeout rate much higher than what he ran in the minor leagues. There is some risk that big league pitchers will exploit this weakness if he doesn’t make a corresponding adjustment to his approach.

Alec Bohm – In many ways, Bohm’s issues are similar to Miranda’s. He has a good contact rate but too much of his contact is simply too weak to do much damage. He did increase his launch angle last year which helped him improve his results on contact and his actual slugging percentage lagged well behind his expected slugging by nearly 40 points. But he also sacrificed some contact quality to achieve that elevated contact, seeing his hard hit rate fall by nearly seven points. Getting the ball up in the air more often is a good sign, but it won’t do him much good if too many of those fly balls wind up in gloves because they aren’t hit hard enough.