FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 11)
Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images
In this article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.
The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers.
Batters: Using my basic criteria of under 40% rostered and added in 2% of CBS, almost 50 hitters met the criteria. I’ve never come close to ranking this many guys.
Royce Lewis: Promoted after working in AAA on his swing and defensive position. Will play at either first or second (started at second) base in the majors.
Lars Nootbaar: Off the IL, but started one game against a righty and sat the next one against a lefty. Add now, bench, and evaluate in a week.
Jake McCarthy: Solid source of batting average (.286 AVG) and steals (11 SB), with not being a zero in power (4 HR).
Noelvi Marte: After two months in AAA (.369/.409/.575, 8 HR, 9 SB), he’s back in the majors with one hit in five plate appearances. Ranked high on talent, but I’m worried about his playing time.
Jacob Gonzalez: A .556 BABIP in 17 PA has him with a .333 AVG. Even though he has a 35% K%, his 78.9% Contact points to a lower strikeout rate. Ranked high based on 19 HR in AAA.
Oswald Peraza: Started in nine of the last 10 games with 7 HR, 1 SB, and .277 AVG.
Spencer Horwitz: Starting all the time with 7 HR and a .282 AVG.
Jacob Young: I’d not be surprised to see him be the best add if he can get his .252 BABIP up. So far, he has 8 HR and 4 SB and a .235 AVG in 212 PA.
Curtis Mead: Starting most of the time (was on the short side of a platoon) while batting .247/.357/.473 with 8 HR and 3 SB.
Bryce Eldridge: Started in nine of the last ten games, hitting a solid .293/.372/.467 with 2 HR.
Paul Goldschmidt: Starting every game with 7 HR and .268 AVG. Has 20 HR upside.
Jorge Mateo: Mateo (.835 OPS) was starting for Atlanta every game and sat for the last four with Mauricio Dubón (.733 OPS) starting instead. I would not drop Mateo, but I’d also not start him.
Edwin Arroyo: He was just promoted. He has 12 PA with a 50% K% and has only seen 32% fastballs. He has a weakness pitcher are attacking. It’s his turn to adjust. Ranked high based on prospect upside.
Leody Taveras: Starting (nine of ten) and a positive contributor with his .266 AVG and 7 SB.
Kody Clemens: Has been a strong-side platoon bat, but did start against the last lefty. He’s been solid when playing with 8 HR, 5 SB, and a .242 AVG.
Chase Meidroth: He’s not stealing as many bases as last season, but has as many home runs (5) in 261 PA as 505 PA last year.
Nick Gonzales: I wish he had more than 2 HR and 3 SB, but hitting a solid .312/.363/.386 that would be useful with batting average or in points leagues.
Jung Hoo Lee 이정후: Since coming off the IL, Lee has a 1.406 OPS (.645 BABIP) but with no home runs or stolen bases. He seems to be just a batting average (.321 AVG) contributor.
Anthony Volpe: His power metrics are down across the board. Probably the worst sign is that he only has one Barrel so far. At least he’s stolen 5 bases in 63 PA.
Ezequiel Tovar: He’s been disappointing by hitting .212/.264/.325 with 4 HR and 4 SB. All of his power metrics are down with .113 ISO and 87.9 avgEV being career lows.
Michael Massey: Hitting for more power (+3.5 mph avgEV, batSpd up 2 mph) with 6 HR in 141 PA. Started in eight straight games. A power spike out of nowhere.
David Hamilton: A steals-only play with 14 SB on the season, but just a .617 OPS. Started 10 straight games.
J.P. Crawford: [Hurt: Hand] Already, he has 10 HR on the season, but is struggling with a .228 AVG. Ranked on being healthy.
Vaughn Grissom: [Hurt: Side] I liked some of the talent changes (more power and contact), but with him hurt, he’s not useful.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Started 10 straight games (98 PA). He has a .270 AVG and 4 SB but no power (.067 ISO).
Wade Meckler: A .414 BABIP has him on fire with a .995 OPS with 2 HR and 2 SB. The only issue is that he’s only facing righties.
Joc Pederson: Useful (8 HR, .250 AVG), strong-side platoon bat.
Garrett Mitchell: Started against the last righty with 3 HR and 6 SB on the season. His .386 BABIP has kept his batting average over .200, given his 36% K%. Not enough power and speed to overcome the batting average drain.
Dominic Canzone: Strong-side platoon bat who has 7 HR and nothing else. Streamer.
Colton Cowser: Strong-side platoon bat with just a .672 OPS. Ignore.
Blaze Alexander: Six starts in the last 10 games, most against lefties. A lack of volume is his biggest issue. The next is a lack of power (.085 ISO). At least the 7 SB might be helpful.
Jake Mangum: Five starts in the last 10 games doesn’t cut it. He has more stolen bases (10) than RBI (9).
Tristan Peters: In 174 PA, he’s been a decent source of batting average (.288 AVG), but only 2 HR and 4 SB. Sits against most lefties.
Heriberto Hernández: Short-side platoon bat who had a good week (3 HR), but could sit all next week with six righties on the schedule.
Alex Call: Ignore. 0 HR. 0 SB. Barely playing.
Jonah Cox: Only starting against some lefties. Not enough PT to be useful.
Catchers
Mickey Gasper: Started in seven of 10 games with a .306 AVG (0 HR and 0 SB).
Endy Rodríguez: Finally catcher-qualified in most leagues and has a .826 OPS in 49 PA. Only starting half the time.
Jimmy Crooks: Starts half the time, and major league pitching is not running over him.
Tyler Stephenson: Starting and has 4 HR but a .188 AVG.
Edgar Quero: Struggling to be useful in any way (.187 AVG, 2 HR). Find a catcher with one useful skill.
Prospects
Kaelen Culpepper: In AAA, the 23-year-old shortstop is batting .270/.374/.500 with 14 HR and 13 SB.
James Tibbs III: In AAA, the 23-year-old outfielder is batting .317/.428/.647 with 18 HR and 3 SB in 269 PA. After needing to DH because of injury, he is now playing first base.
Luis Lara: In AAA, the 21-year-old outfielder is batting .338/.447/.500 with 7 HR and 18 SB in 247 PA.
Joshua Báez: In AAA, the 22-year-old outfielder is batting .265/.343/.581 with 17 HR and 11 SB in 242 PA. His 65% Contact% and 32% K% are red flags.
Injured Hitters
Jasson Domínguez: He is nearing a rehab assignment. The time to add is now for a power/speed threat.
Francisco Alvarez: Three games (10 PA) into his rehab assignment. Played back-to-back games.
Jordan Lawlar: He is five games into his rehab assignment and has a 1.190 OPS
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jasson Dominguez | 38% | 39% | 1% |
| Noelvi Marte | 37% | 51% | 14% |
| Jung Hoo Lee | 37% | 48% | 11% |
| Bryce Eldridge | 37% | 45% | 8% |
| Spencer Horwitz | 34% | 52% | 18% |
| Nick Gonzales | 34% | 37% | 3% |
| Jordan Lawlar | 34% | 36% | 2% |
| Francisco Alvarez | 34% | 35% | 1% |
| Tyler Stephenson | 30% | 33% | 3% |
| Chase Meidroth | 28% | 38% | 10% |
| Royce Lewis | 28% | 30% | 2% |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 27% | 31% | 4% |
| Anthony Volpe | 27% | 30% | 3% |
| Jake McCarthy | 22% | 33% | 11% |
| Garrett Mitchell | 22% | 27% | 5% |
| Dominic Canzone | 22% | 25% | 3% |
| J.P. Crawford | 21% | 30% | 9% |
| Joshua Baez | 21% | 25% | 4% |
| Curtis Mead | 18% | 56% | 38% |
| James Tibbs | 18% | 20% | 2% |
| Kody Clemens | 17% | 27% | 10% |
| Oswald Peraza | 16% | 19% | 3% |
| Edwin Arroyo | 15% | 27% | 12% |
| Kaelen Culpepper | 15% | 17% | 2% |
| Colton Cowser | 14% | 20% | 6% |
| Jacob Young | 12% | 16% | 4% |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 8% | 16% | 8% |
| David Hamilton | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Luis Lara | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Jorge Mateo | 7% | 21% | 14% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Vaughn Grissom | 6% | 12% | 6% |
| Leody Taveras | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Blaze Alexander | 5% | 8% | 3% |
| Endy Rodriguez | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Edgar Quero | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| Jacob Gonzalez | 3% | 22% | 19% |
| Joc Pederson | 3% | 15% | 12% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 3% | 8% | 5% |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Mickey Gasper | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Wade Meckler | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Jake Mangum | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Tristan Peters | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Alex Call | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Heriberto Hernandez | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Michael Massey | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Jonah Cox | 0% | 4% | 4% |
Starters (created some tiers this week for no good reason)
Guys I’d actually target
Gage Jump: At the top because it’ll be the last chance to add him. So far, he has a 3.75 ERA (4.24 xFIP, 3.08 botERA), 1.17 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9.
Dustin May: May is great buy low since his 64% LOB% has his ERA higher than his xFIP (4.59 vs 3.90). Over this last six starts, he threw his cutter (12% SwStr%) more, so his K-BB% doubled from 10% to 20%.
Christian Scott: The walks (4.5 BB/9) have led to a 1.31 WHIP, but the rest of the profile is solid with a 10.3 K/9 and 2.50 ERA (4.22 xFIP).
Sean Burke: Burke’s profile has been steady, leading to a 3.72 ERA (4.09 xFIP), 1.13 WHIP, and 8.3 K/9.
Trevor McDonald: Solid buy low with everyone seeing his 4.50 ERA (65% LOB%) while having a 3.24 xFIP, 3.60 botERA, and 1.15 WHIP.
Sean Manaea: While he has not officially started a game yet, he’s averaged ~4 IP over his last four appearances. During that stretch, he has a 2.87 ERA (3.68 xFIP), 9.2 K/9, and 1.09 WHIP. The improvement is that his walks are down to 2.9 BB/9. He’s never been able to maintain a low walk rate, so ride the hot streak and be ready to get off once the walks increase.
Brandon Young: He’s made a few changes, like a new splitter (down 3 mph), over his last three games (2.29 ERA, 3.87 xFIP, 6.9 K/9, and 1.12 WHIP). Probably the biggest improvement over these three games is his walk rate dropping from 4.3 BB/9 to 1.4 BB/9. Sneaky add.
Patrick Corbin: Remains a low-4.00 ERA streamer against weak matchups. Next week, he has a two-step against the Phillies and Yankees.
Martín Pérez: If a team is streaming for Wins, Martin is the perfect average pitcher on a good team. He’s picked off two Wins in his last two starts against the Reds and Pirates. And his next starts are the White Sox, Giants, Padres, and Giants. Good pitcher, no. Usable, yes.
Fix one problem for a breakout
Troy Melton: A 1.74 ERA vs a 4.71 xFIP (5.27 SIERA, 4.35 botERA). I’ll see how long the magic can last for a pitcher with a 3.9 K/9.
Walbert Ureña: Ureña is unique; he’s a high strikeout, walk, and groundball pitcher. Usually, I’d be completely out on a 5.0 BB/9 pitcher (1.33 WHIP), but I see the upside if he gets the walks under control.
Middle relievers to fall back on
Chad Patrick: Over his last eight appearances, Patrick started only once. He’s not really a starter, but he averaged over 3 IP per appearance with a 0.48 ERA (3.21 xFIP), 0.80 WHIP (1.9 BB/9), and 8.7 K/9. He has gone full Lance Lynn by throwing his fastballs a combined 93% of the time during that span.
Shane Drohan: The Brewers are cranking out the middle relievers. Over his last five starts, he averaged 3 IP with an 11.1 K/9 and 2.45 ERA (3.14 xFIP). On Sunday, he will get a start in Denver. Good old trial by fire.
Streamers under the right conditions
Anthony Kay: Kay turned around a bad April by dropping his walk rate from 5.0 BB/9 to 3.00 BB/9. While not plug it and forget it guy, he’s been streamable with the right matchups (3.22 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 7.7 K/9, and 1.29 WHIP).
Walker Buehler: I don’t think Buehler is good, but his velocity ticked up ~1 mph over his last two starts, when he was solid (14% K-BB%) against the Phillies in both games. Monitor.
Kumar Rocker: Rocker’s 3.54 ERA keeps his roster rate moving up, while other signs point to a 4.50 ERA talent. 4.43 xFIP. 5.02 botERA. BAT X projection of 4.51 ERA. His 1.33 WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 4.51 ERA. Steamer at best.
Stay away
Kai-Wei Teng: As a starter, Teng has a 4.00 ERA (4.44 xFIP), 1.41 WHIP (4.7 BB/9), and 8.0 K/9. The walks are a major issue with his WHIP doing as much ratio damage as a 5.00 ERA. That’s unacceptable in a Roto league. Ignore until the walks come down.
Colin Rea: There are no reasons to add Rea at this point. A solid 4.50 ERA talent and might be out of the rotation with Boyd coming off the IL.
David Sandlin: No signs point to a usable pitcher (8.10 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 4.57 botERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.2 K/9). Ignore until they do.
Eric Lauer 라우어: How in the hell are the guys with sub-5.0 K/9 and 91 mph fastballs surviving? Well, Lauer didn’t in Toronto (6.69 ERA). Lauer has had some great luck with the Dodgers, with a 98% LOB% and .212 BABIP, leading to a 2.53 ERA, while every other metric points to a 5.00 ERA talent. With the Dodgers, Lauer has dropped his slider (5% SwStr%, 36% GB%).
Mike Burrows: In a two-start week (vs PIT, vs ATH), with a bad first start (5 IP, 5 R, 3 K, 5 BB). While he’s been horrible on the season (5.66 ERA, 4.61 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9), managers are going to be intrigued by his upcoming matchups (KC, CLE, DET).
Zack Littell: A lucky May (2.35 ERA, 4.95 xFIP), fueled by a .228 BABIP, has managers adding a guy with a 5.6 K/9 and 92-mph fastball. I don’t trust him since he could go back to April Littell with his 7.85 ERA.
Luinder Avila: While the Royals need him to start, he’s just walking too many batters (5.5 BB/9) to be useful, as seen by his 4.44 ERA (4.62 xFIP) and 1.71 WHIP.
Prospects
River Ryan: In AAA, the 27-year-old righty has a 2.89 ERA (3.46 xFIP), 1.04 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9 in 28 IP.
Karson Milbrandt: In AA, the 22-year-old righty has a 1.34 ERA (2.69 xFIP), 1.00 WHIP, and 13.4 K/9 in 47 IP.
Hurston Waldrep: The 24-year-old righty has thrown 4 IP in the complex league.
Kade Morris: In AAA, the 23-year-old righty has a 4.45 ERA (5.43 xFIP), 1.47 WHIP, and 7.3 K/9 in 60 IP.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Melton | 37% | 45% | 8% |
| Dustin May | 33% | 51% | 18% |
| Christian Scott | 33% | 39% | 6% |
| Sean Burke | 33% | 37% | 4% |
| Chad Patrick | 31% | 34% | 3% |
| Walbert Urena | 30% | 39% | 9% |
| Gage Jump | 27% | 41% | 14% |
| Colin Rea | 27% | 29% | 2% |
| Trevor McDonald | 26% | 28% | 2% |
| Anthony Kay | 25% | 34% | 9% |
| Michael Burrows | 25% | 28% | 3% |
| Kai-Wei Teng | 23% | 31% | 8% |
| Martin Perez | 22% | 25% | 3% |
| River Ryan | 21% | 31% | 10% |
| Kumar Rocker | 21% | 23% | 2% |
| David Sandlin | 14% | 28% | 14% |
| Zack Littell | 13% | 20% | 7% |
| Walker Buehler | 13% | 18% | 5% |
| Hurston Waldrep | 13% | 15% | 2% |
| Eric Lauer | 8% | 9% | 1% |
| Sean Manaea | 6% | 18% | 12% |
| Karson Milbrandt | 6% | 13% | 7% |
| Patrick Corbin | 6% | 9% | 3% |
| Brandon Young | 5% | 9% | 4% |
| Shane Drohan | 4% | 15% | 11% |
| Kade Morris | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Alex Lange: Average reliever who is the closer.
Clayton Beeter: Below-average reliever who is the closer.
Kirby Yates: Average reliever who seems to be the closer.
Yoendrys Gómez: Average reliever who appears to be the closer.
Hogan Harris: Below-average reliever leads the bullpen in Saves.
Will Vest: Good reliever might be sharing the closer duties.
Dylan Lee: Good reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
Adrian Morejon: Good reliever is a couple of steps away from closing.
Daniel Lynch IV: Average reliever who is the backup closer.
Matt Strahm: Average reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
Orion Kerkering: Good reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
Wilber Dotel: Great reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
Kyle Hurt: Great reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
Braydon Fisher: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirby Yates | 24% | 25% | 1% |
| Clayton Beeter | 21% | 30% | 9% |
| Dylan Lee | 17% | 19% | 2% |
| Hogan Harris | 16% | 18% | 2% |
| Adrian Morejon | 15% | 17% | 2% |
| Will Vest | 8% | 9% | 1% |
| Daniel Lynch | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Matt Strahm | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Orion Kerkering | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Yoendrys Gomez | 4% | 15% | 11% |
| Kyle Hurt | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Braydon Fisher | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Luinder Avila | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Wilber Dotel | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Alex Lange | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Great info and analysis. Thanks!
Trevor Rogers or Brandon Young? Thank you!
“Yoendrys Gómez: Average reliever who appears to be the closer.”
11 different Twins have saves this season. Gómez did not get the last opportunity this week. Any time we think someone “appears to be the closer” in MIN, they’re not
Excellent analysis as always, but missed a trick (and/or Canzone’s Saturday) above. Joc’s 8HRs at UTIL are useful, but Canzone’s [8]HRs at OF = “nothing else”?
It pays to be fun/likeable at work folks. It’s that damned “Joc Pop” smile isn’t it ;)?
Any interest in Grant Taylor? If do, where would he rank among the widely available relievers?
I assume Jared Young is too widely owned to qualify here, but he was available in my dynasty league, which starts as many as 500 players. Walks are solid, he’s not chasing egregiously, and all the hard hit stuff looks good.