How I Blew the Biggest FAAB Stack in AL Tout Wars

Playing in a mono-league makes the MLB trade deadline even more exciting. Every year, a number of impact fantasy players switch leagues, giving fantasy teams with a stash of FAAB multiple opportunities to instantly improve their rosters. I always look forward to the deadline in AL Tout Wars, as a result. Unfortunately, I blew it this year.

In Tout Wars, we begin the season with 1,000 FAAB units. However, if you finished the previous season with fewer than 60 points, a deduction of 10 units for every point below 60 is taken from your starting balance. So some teams began the year with fewer than 1,000 units, a scenario I experienced once before, I believe, but not this year.

You can also gain additional FAAB if you decide to release a player on the IL. You receive 10x the player’s auction cost until the All-Star break, and then 5x after. As you could imagine, this could provide a big source of in-season FAAB, but of course, that means you’ve lost a player, presumably a good one.

With the background out of the way, this year’s trade deadline was on Monday, August 3. I originally assumed it was July 31, which would have been great as that was a Friday, meaning the odds were pretty high that any impactful player will have been traded between our Jul 26 and Aug 2 FAAB runs at 8 PM EST. Instead, it was on Monday, Aug 3, which makes it more challenging as impactful players could be traded before our Aug 2 deadline and on deadline day, and those latter players would then be available for the following FAAB run on Aug 9. So you might end up in a scenario where you have to decide whether to spend your money on the first group of traded players or wait for the second group.

For the Aug 2 FAAB run, I held the second highest FAAB stack at over 900 units. That meant I wasn’t guaranteed my top choice, but if there was more than one standout coming to the AL, I could get one of them.

Sure enough, both Luis García Jr. and Freddy Peralta were traded and I immediately had to make a decision. Do I splurge on either of them and get the guaranteed player, or do I wait until the next day in the hopes someone better is traded into the league?

Affecting my decision is that I was technically desperate for a second baseman. I won Jonathan India at the auction, but he hit the IL early in the season and was already out for the year. Since, I’ve rotated through an embarrassing collection of replacements in Hao-Yu Lee, Brice Matthews, Nicky Lopez, and my current starter there, Tyler Tolbert.

I timed the Tolbert buy perfectly as it was right before he went nuts, recording a hit in 12 consecutive plate appearances, which included two home runs. He has also stolen eight bases during his time on my team. Even though he only starts against lefties, he often pinch runs. I’ve tried to find a replacement, but felt like he’s providing enough value that it’s not a must.

Back to the traded players, García is in the midst of a breakout season, though not necessarily in fantasy since his steals are down meaningfully. All his Statcast metrics support the breakout and his BatSpd is up as well. He moves from a strong left-handed home run park to an even stronger one. But, he’s a platoon bat who doesn’t start against lefties, and what if this breakout isn’t sustainable over the rest of the year?

Mono-leaguers can always use another starting pitcher and my team wasn’t an exception. I was leading in strikeouts for most of the season, but a series of injuries pushed me down a couple of spots, so I could definitely use one. However, I’m always cautious picking up starters in Tout Wars as I would rather start a good middle reliever than risk blowing up my ratios in the hopes of a win and some strikeouts.

Peralta had endured a massively disappointing season with a career worst strikeout rate. Is he really the savior my staff needed to vault back to the top of the strikeout category, while not hurting my ratios?

Ultimately, I opted to wait until trade deadline day with my fingers crossed that better players would come along. I ended up bidding on both for respectable amounts, but amounts I knew had little chance of winning. The two teams that won the bidding used up the majority of their stacks, as expected.

One of those teams was the top FAAB stack. That meant that I was the new top stack, a position I’m familiar with as I typically enter trade deadline day with the top stack, or close to it. I don’t intentionally hold back my FAAB so I get top pick of league crossovers, it just so happens that way due to my in-season bidding and the typical lack of knowingly impactful players that crop up during the season.

So here I was on Monday, constantly refreshing news sites hoping to see at least one big name that could dramatically improve my team. You know, like Tarik Skubal for NL-Only leaguers. I desperately needed a catcher…Hunter Goodman then? How about a closer…maybe Mason Miller?

It was with great sadness that the deadline passed and arguably the most impactful name to cross leagues was…Foster Griffin?! There were some other names too — Liam Hicks, Heliot Ramos, Nathaniel Lowe, and Moisés Ballesteros. THAT’S IT?! My wad of 900+ FAAB units is going to be splurged on some combination of these players? Gee golly.

Aside from being the top stack with 922 units, I actually had a significant lead over the second highest stack, which sat at 547 units. So I immediately wondered whether I could actually grab two names, rather than just one. But did I want to spend all or nearly all of my stack on more than one of these names or will their be a more impactful minor league call-up in the near future? Let’s go through my thought process.

Back in 2020 and 2022, Foster Griffin recorded a total of eight innings at the big league level. He then went on to pitch three seasons in Japan and was quite successful. He returned to the Majors this year and enjoyed a strong campaign for the Nationals. However, he recorded just a 22.1% strikeout rate and his 3.06 ERA was significantly below his 3.78 SIERA and 4.11 xERA. The Nationals seemingly executed a sell-high trade, so did I want to essentially buy high by bidding 548 units to guarantee I win him?

Liam Hicks would fill a needed slot on my roster and is also enjoying a breakout season, fueled by a near doubling of his HR/FB rate and massive jump in ISO. But, his Statcast power metrics are almost identical to last year, and he has mightily overperformed his xwOBA. In fact, his xwOBA is nearly identical to last year’s and his actual wOBA mark. Sure, he fills a position of need, but the luck has to run out at some point right? And if I think it will, do I really want to spend significant FAAB on that production?

I liked Heliot Ramos for a power rebound this year as I expected his Barrel% to return to double digits. It has, and his HR/FB rate has bounced back somewhat. However, he has suddenly become a groundball hitter, posting a sub-30% FB%. That has led to an underwhelming fantasy season, so a new owner would have to hope that Yankee magic would ignite his bat. Complicating matters is that the Yankees have three hitters who could return at varying points over the remainder of the season, causing a playing time crunch in the outfield. If Ramos isn’t hitting, he becomes a platoon bat. Do I bid anyway knowing his playing time is secure now and worry about his role when the time comes?

Once upon a time, Nathaniel Lowe was a top prospect in the Rays system. He never got an extended look there and was eventually traded to the Rangers where he enjoyed some solid seasons. Since, he’s become a bit of a journeyman, now joining his fourth team in two years. He’s had a bit of a renaissance with his highest HR/FB rate since 2022 thanks to his highest Barrel% since that same year and the highest BatSpd since we’ve been tracking it. Unfortunately, he’s a strong side platoon bat, so he’s also not without his flaws.

Finally, there was Moisés Ballesteros, an intriguing name that I figured would be overshadowed by some of the others. He was last ranked as the 43rd best prospect in baseball while showing good contact ability and power in the minors…all while qualifying at catcher. The Angels figured to play him as much as possible, rotating him between catcher and DH. With only around 250 plate appearances in the Majors, was this the guy I should be hanging my championship hopes on?

These were all my real thoughts at the time. I wasn’t excited about anyone really, as everyone had their warts. This is how I ended up bidding:

I spent some time doing some math, making educated guesses about others’ bidding, and formulating my strategy to actually try securing two names.

I didn’t love Griffin, but I had to spend my FAAB at some point, and figured he would be the highest bid on player of the crossovers. I ended up bidding 539 because that’s how much the third highest stack (Stack 3) had and was banking on the second highest stack (Stack 2) at 547 thinking Stack 3 wouldn’t blow their whole wad on Griffin, so he would bid less, giving me the win.

Oops, first mistake. Instead, Stack 2 bid 540 to guarantee himself a win versus Stack 3, which ended up beating my bid by one. Talk about getting too cute with my bid and overthinking things to maybe save a couple of FAAB units! My immediate reaction wasn’t that I missed on a league-winning player, but that I really fumbled that bid and it’s hilarious I lost by one unit.

You may have guessed from the way I typed his profile, but my second target was actually Ballesteros. Unlike at second base where Tolbert was actually providing value, I truly desperately needed a catcher. I thought he could easily produce more value than Hicks, but should cost significantly less. That’s why he was the top priority in my second block, but my bid was well below the next names.

Oops, second mistake. I dramatically underestimated the league’s interest here, as he actually went for 313 units.

Okay, well then I’ll just win Hicks, as surely everyone sees the wOBA-xWOBA gap and is just as unenthused as me about spending all their FAAB on him. Right? RIGHT?

Oops, third mistake. My 303 bid was closer than my underbid for Ballesteros, but still well below the winning bid of 399.

Okay fine, give me Ramos then. I don’t really need an outfielder, but I could use more power and Yankee magic is definitely a thing.

Oops, fourth mistake. No need to determine whether Yankee magic is a thing or not because my 303 unit bid lost to a 314 unit bid.

Welllll then, I’ll certainly win Lowe, as all the winning bidders above have no money left, right? RIGHT! I won Nathaniel Lowe, spending just over a quarter of my FAAB. I really did not need another first baseman, but I’ve always liked him and I could use some additional power.

So if you’re not keeping score, along with my thrilling eight unit buy of Travis d’Arnaud, my FAAB total went from 922 to 667, which is far too much to have with only a quarter of the season left.

Despite “having the hammer” after this trade deadline, I totally botched it, as I could have easily secured two players and still had enough left for injury replacements.

***

Now I’ll throw it back to you — how would you have handled the two weeks of FAAB bidding with the second highest stack, followed by the highest?

As a reminder, my only very obviously clear need was, and still is, at catcher, with Tolbert at second debatable. I could use home runs more than stolen bases, but my offense is the highest scoring in the league. We could all use more starting pitching and my team was no exception. I reallllly would have liked a closer to come over, but that didn’t happen. So I was looking for wins and strikeouts, while avoiding risk to my ratios.

Finally, at the risk of jinxing myself, my team has been in first or second the vast majority of the season, which might alter your recommended bidding strategy.