Don’t Forget About These Five Rookie Starters

Given the big adjustment to Major League hitters compared to minor leaguers, small sample volatility, and the randomness of the three luck metrics (BABIP, HR/FB, LOB%), rookie starting pitchers often disappoint. However, that disappointment is sometimes superficial and only on the surface. If you look deeper, you might discover that the pitcher did everything well he could control, but other factors conspired against him to inflate his ERA. With that in mind, let’s discuss five rookie starters with hefty ERA marks, but SIERA marks around 4.00 or below. These guys may even be sitting in your free agent pool and ready to be plucked as potential keepers next year.

Glenn Otto Jr. | TEX

The 25-year-old Otto wasn’t much of a prospect when he got his promotion, ranking just 35th among Rangers prospects. But he went on a whiff spree in the minors this year, posting SwStk% marks in the mid-teens and that’s something that should get fantasy owners’ attentions. While the strong SwStk% only resulted in an elite strikeout rate at Double-A, the ability to generate swings and misses is the most important skill for a prospect hurler in my mind.

Unfortunately, his first five MLB starts have gone nearly as poorly as possible. Despite striking out 26.5% of opposing batters and only walking 7.1% of them, he owns an ugly 8.02 ERA. That inflated ERA is thanks to a ridiculous .393 BABIP and 49.7% LOB%. He’s allowed a ton of hits on balls in play and a high percentage of those baserunners end up scoring. Given his solid skills though, his SIERA actually sits all the way down at 3.68. That’s quite the discrepancy!

He hasn’t been quite the whiff machine in the Majors as he was in the minors this year, as he sports a single digit SwStk%, but his slider has been excellent, generating an 18.4% SwStk%. So at least he’s got one out pitch to build upon. Well I can’t say I’m super excited about Otto’s future, he’s definitely better than his current results.

JT Brubaker | PIT

Brubaker debuted last year and despite the 4.94 ERA, received some sleeper love given he’s decent skills and much more palatable 4.28 SIERA. This season, his underlying skills have actually improved (his SIERA has improved to 4.03), but his ERA has climbed even higher, above 5.00.

Opposite to what Otto has suffered from, Brubaker has caught a bad case of gopheritis. His HR/FB rate, which was fairly league average last year, has spiked to the second highest mark among pitchers with at least 120 innings. That’s even more surprising given a home park that suppresses long balls. With an elite slider this year from a SwStk% perspective, he’s got a foundation with which to build around. He should finally earn some positive value in NL-Only leagues next year, at the very least.

Logan Gilbert | SEA

Gilbert was the Mariners third best prospect and 24th best overall, so expectations were high when he earned his MLB recall. He ended up throwing just five innings at Triple-A before his promotion after making his professional debut in 2019, so he swiftly move up the ranks.

Gilbert’s MLB debut has been up and down as he’s mixed in some gems with some clunkers, including nine runs allowed in just 4.2 innings in mid/late August. But that’s sometimes par for the course for rookie hurlers, and even non-elite veteran pitchers as well. Every start can’t be strong!

That said, Gilbert has actually posted some pretty strong skills, making me feel like he hasn’t actually disappointed at all. He has induced the swings and misses that have resulted in strikeouts, minimized walks allowed, and allowed a high rate of fly balls that should lead to a better than average BABIP. That’s the good. The bad is that as decent as he’s been at generating swings and misses, he’s been well below average at getting called strikes. Furthermore, while the high FB% should result in a lower BABIP (which it actually hasn’t), it also could means lots of home runs. Luckily, his high strikeout rate and better than average HR/FB rate have kept the homers in check, as his HR/9 is barely above the league average.

The most exciting thing about Gilbert’s debut is his repertoire. All three of his most used pitches, his four-seamer, slider, and changeup, have generated double digit SwStk% marks, with the latter two in the high teens. With such a strong assortment, he should be able to maintain a high strikeout rate. While the high FB% could be worrisome, the strikeout rate and ability to limit walks mean the homers won’t be as frequent or do as much damage.

Tylor Megill | NYM

Megill was just the 25th ranked prospect in the Mets system heading into the year, with a future role expectation as a single inning relief pitcher. That means he was totally off fantasy owners’ radars. However, he has always posted strong strikeout rates in the minors and his SwStk% took off over a relatively small sample at two levels this year.

The increased SwStk% looks to be the result of a big increase in fastball velocity. His original blurb had him sitting 90-93 MPH and maxing out at 95 MPH, but over his 84.2 MLB innings, he has actually averaged 94.6 MPH, topping out at 97.4 MPH. That’s a significant improvement, and one that could totally change a pitcher’s outlook. The faster fastball likely juiced the effectiveness of his changeup and slider, both of which sport mid-to-high teen SwStk% marks.

Megill’s ERA stands a whopping 0.88 runs higher than his SIERA, as he’s dealt with a similar problem as Brubaker, but to a slightly lesser degree. His 19.2% HR/FB rate is 10th worst among 157 pitchers who have thrown at least 80 innings. I would bet on improvement there and his solid skills, backed by a nice three pitch mix, delivering value to NL-Only leagues and perhaps shallower next year.

Adbert Alzolay | CHC

It seems like Alzolay has been around for a while, but that’s because he keeps being recalled and then getting sent back down. He actually still qualifies as a rookie this year in his most extended stay in the rotation. Alzolay broke out in 2019 at Triple-A, when both his strikeout rate and SwStk% surged. He couldn’t maintain the same SwStk% level in the Majors during his short stints in 2019 and 2020, but has improved that mark this year.

Averaging around 94 MPH with his fastballs and peaking at 97 MPH, he has complemented his sinker and four-seamer with a slider, changeup, and cutter that have all generated SwStk% marks in the teens. That’s quite the expansive repertoire. He has also kept his walks to a minimum, improving his walk rate to the lowest mark since 2016 at Single-A.

Yet, his ERA sits significantly higher than his SIERA thanks to…you guessed it…another bad case of gopheritis. His 22.3% HR/FB rate ranks third, just behind Brubaker, among 92 pitchers with at least 120 innings. Assume that will come down closer to league average (13.6% this season) and he’ll deliver positive fantasy value next year.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Buff
2 years ago

Why should I bet on a mess of pitchers with gopheritis? Isn’t suppressing home runs a skill. Help me out here. What tells you these guys are going to lower their home runs allowed, other than regression to the mean?

Buff
2 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Thanks. I was not criticizing but asking honestly for information, and you provided some. You might lighten up your tone a bit, though.

averagejoe15
2 years ago
Reply to  Buff

People tend to match the perceived tone of the speaker/message in their response so maybe lead with ‘honestly asking for information’ next time?

gillummember
2 years ago
Reply to  Buff

He said please

LightenUpFGmember
2 years ago
Reply to  Buff

To be fair, the subject line says “don’t forget”, not “go out and get these future aces”. Worthy keeper fliers at the very least.