Chad Young’s Ottoneu SS Rankings
Shortstop is maybe the most fun position in baseball right now. Fernando Tatis Jr., Bo Bichette, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trea Turner and I could keep going. As a result, almost every team in your league is going to feel good about shortstop, which I think creates an opportunity to buy a second SS to be your MI. There is a chance that there could be some good values to be had if other managers are complacent thanks to having one of the top 10. And there are plenty of interesting names after the top 10.
Chad’s Other Ottoneu Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | OF | SP | RP
As I did on the last list, all 2B/SS eligible bats are included on this list.
Chad Young’s Ottoneu SS Ranks
| Tier | Rank | Player | Eligibility | Projected P/G | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50-$60 | 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SS/OF | 7.22 | Maybe I should worry more about the shoulder, but I’d rather enjoy one of the most fun players in the game. |
| $35-40 | 2 | Trea Turner | 2B/SS | 5.95 | I know the Steamer P/G don’t have him this high, but I expect a big season. |
| $35-40 | 3 | Carlos Correa | SS | 6.20 | I had Seager ahead of him before Seager landed in Texas, but I doubt Correa lands in quite that bad a spot. |
| $35-40 | 4 | Bo Bichette | SS | 6.12 | Aggressive approach caps his OBP and offers some downside risk, otherwise he’d have a case for #2. |
| $35-40 | 5 | Corey Seager | SS | 6.29 | He could be 3, 4 or 5, but his park, lineup and injury history keep him here. |
| $28-$34 | 6 | Marcus Semien | 2B/SS | 5.55 | I really wanted to put him above Seager, but Seager is younger and his performance is less risky, though I trust Semien’s volume more. |
| $28-$34 | 7 | Xander Bogaerts | SS | 5.81 | So consistently good it feels like he is consistently underrated, but can you really move him into the tier above this one? |
| $24-$27 | 8 | Wander Franco | SS/3B | 5.69 | The plate discipline gives him such a high floor and there’s enough hit and power tools to give him huge upside. |
| $16-$23 | 9 | Francisco Lindor | SS | 5.46 | Posted a career best walk rate and was much stronger as the season went on; Expect a bounceback. |
| $16-$23 | 10 | Trevor Story | SS | 5.32 | Someone is going to leave a comment that I am overreacting to Story leaving Coors by ranking him 10th so I’ll say this: If he re-signs with Colorado, he would still be 10th. |
| $16-$23 | 11 | Jorge Polanco | 2B/SS | 5.33 | Including his outlier 2020, he has a .342 wOBA over the last three seasons wth 24 HR/650 PA. |
| $16-$23 | 12 | Tim Anderson | SS | 5.18 | First I thought this was too high, then I wondered if it was too low, so I guess this spot is just right? |
| $16-$23 | 13 | Gleyber Torres | 2B/SS | 5.42 | His power output has gone down as his launch angle has gone down, and his LA was creeping back up as the season went on. |
| $10-$15 | 14 | Jake Cronenworth | 1B/2B/SS | 5.14 | Doesn’t really have any elite skills but does everything well enough at that plate that the sum is pretty great. |
| $10-$15 | 15 | Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 5.58 | He stole 29 bases last year which doesn’t really matter except it is going to inflate his hype in the fantasy world and Ottoneu points players should be aware. |
| $10-$15 | 16 | Willy Adames | SS | 5.11 | .377 wOBA with Milwaukee, which seems like it could be a fluke, but in 628 career road PA as a Ray, his wOBA was .363. Dude hates Tropicana. |
| $10-$15 | 17 | Brandon Crawford | SS | 4.94 | Between his age and his unimpressive projections, I am hedging a bit, because he was much better than this last year. |
| $10-$15 | 18 | Javier Báez | 2B/SS | 4.88 | His 2021 was as good as some of the folks above him, but it took a career high BABIP and a career high HR/FB rate to do that. |
| $10-$15 | 19 | Oneil Cruz | SS | 6.04 | Look, I can’t full endorse his insanely optimistic projections but if the computers love him that much, I’ll go to double-digits. |
| $10-$15 | 20 | Luis Urías | 2B/SS/3B | 5.18 | Career highs in HH%, Barrel%, average EV, and Max EV all point to his hit tool finally playing up as expected. |
| $10-$15 | 21 | Brendan Rodgers | 2B/SS | 5.32 | His 6 PH appearances were so good that he was one of only 15 players whose overall P/G was higher than his P/G as a starter – makes me think there is upside here. |
| $6-9 | 22 | Chris Taylor | 2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.91 | Plays up in OPL in a big way, so if you are thinking of entering, make him a priority. |
| $6-9 | 23 | Eugenio Suárez | SS/3B | 5.08 | 89th percentile barrel rate and 22nd in MLB in barrels/PA. The power is still there. |
| $6-9 | 24 | Dansby Swanson | SS | 4.73 | His ATC projection is a touch higher than his Steamer projection, and it looks an awful lot like the average of his last three years. |
| $6-9 | 25 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B/SS | 4.82 | This is a head-over-heart ranking cause he is super fun and I am sure I will over-spend this at some point just out of hope. |
| $6-9 | 26 | Gavin Lux | 2B/SS/OF | 4.91 | The universal DH probably doesn’t directly help Lux, but he needs PA and DH would create more opportunity for that. |
| $3-$5 | 27 | Josh Rojas | 2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.43 | Another guy to target for OPL, but less exciting than Taylor for your home league. |
| $3-$5 | 28 | Anthony Volpe | SS | N/A | The Yankees need help at MI and I imagine they would love to get him up to the Bronx ASAP, but that’s probably not this year. |
| $3-$5 | 29 | Adalberto Mondesi | SS/3B | 4.82 | He hasn’t been able to stay on the field and his team is openly wondering if they need to limit him AND he needs to show he can hit consistently AND we don’t really care about his speed here. |
| $3-$5 | 30 | CJ Abrams | SS | N/A | Fun prospect who is more fun in 5×5; the question with him isn’t so much ability as role and ETA. |
| $3-$5 | 31 | Marco Luciano | SS | N/A | Feels like we have been waiting for him forever, but we still have another year to wait. |
| $3-$5 | 32 | Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 김하성 | 2B/SS/3B | 4.66 | His 85th percentile max EV is telling – he is capable of hitting MLB pitching hard, and maybe after a year of adjustment he’ll do it more often. |
| $3-$5 | 33 | Amed Rosario | SS/OF | 4.74 | I expect his 2022 will look a lot like his 2021. |
| $1-$2 | 34 | Bryson Stott | SS | 4.73 | He’s going to be the Phillies’ SS soon but needs more power to shine here. |
| $1-$2 | 35 | Austin Martin | SS/OF | N/A | Watch the ISO this year – he needs to show more pop to have a shot to be an impact bat in Ottoneu. |
| $3-$5 | 36 | Noelvi Marte | SS | N/A | By the time we see him in a couple years, he might not be a SS, but his bat will play even if he has to move. |
| $1-$2 | 37 | Jordan Groshans | SS/3B | 3.83 | Feel about the same as I do about Martin, and I like them both less than Marte, except for ETA. |
| $1-$2 | 38 | Gio Urshela | SS/3B | 4.55 | Whatever magic he found in 2019 and 2020 wore off in 2021 and I do not expect it to return. |
| $1-$2 | 39 | Didi Gregorius | SS | 4.72 | Going into 2021, I wanted to write off 2019 as a rough patch in a solid career, but now it looks like 2020 might have been a last hurrah. |
| $1-$2 | 40 | Tyler Freeman | SS | N/A | Great hit tool and questions about the power. This profile is a Cleveland specialty. |
| $1-$2 | 41 | Oswald Peraza | SS | 3.77 | Offense looks more “good enough to play SS” than “future fantasy star.” |
| $1-$2 | 42 | Paul DeJong | SS | 4.81 | Power rebounded but BABIP plummeted. Not sure he’s a fantasy starter, even if he gets back to ’19 production. |
| $1-$2 | 43 | Nico Hoerner | 2B/SS | 4.69 | Should get every opportunity to run away with a MI job in Chicago, which will give you time to figure out if he’s useful or should be cut. |
| $1-$2 | 44 | Jonathan Villar | 2B/SS/3B | 4.61 | Always gets fantasy hype at some point during the season, but doesn’t have the power to overcome weak OBP. |
| $1-$2 | 45 | Joey Wendle | 2B/SS/3B | 4.32 | Valuable to the Marlins; less so to you. |
| $1-$2 | 46 | Greg Jones | SS | N/A | Ready for the high minors. SS is locked up for a while in Tampa but Jones could hit enough to be a useful utility guy. |
| $1-$2 | 47 | Orelvis Martinez | SS | N/A | The upside is enticing but he needs to make some adjustments and he’s still more than a year away. |
| $1-$2 | 48 | Brayan Rocchio | SS | N/A | See Freeman, Tyler. |
| $1-$2 | 49 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | SS | 4.23 | Likely out of a job in Texas, but offers enough defensively to play regularly somewhere. Don’t trust the bat though. |
| $1-$2 | 50 | Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 3.66 | Impressive defense and high OBP will carry an MLB player, but want to see more pop for Ottoneu. |
| $0 | 51 | Jeremy Peña | SS | 4.45 | 1) He had a 126 wRC+ in Triple-A; 2) He appears to the be the front-runner to start at SS for the Astros. |
| $0 | 52 | Pedro Leon | SS | N/A | Looks like interesting power but a very high K rate that he’s needs to control to have any impact. |
| $0 | 53 | Andrés Giménez | 2B/SS | 4.43 | He was solid in MLB at age 21 and that is hard to fake; breakout still could come. |
| $0 | 54 | Luis Garcia | 2B/SS | 4.91 | If he had an everyday job, I would want him on the back end of my roster, just to see. |
| $0 | 55 | Kevin Smith | SS/3B | 4.73 | Think he could be really useful and not impossible for him to displace Santiago Espinal or Cavan Biggio. |
| $0 | 56 | Miguel Rojas | SS | 4.38 | The kind of guy I want on my watchlist to add if I need to fill games. |
| $0 | 57 | Josh Harrison | 2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.51 | Better bat than the guys ahead of him but less clear playing time. |
| $0 | 58 | Jeter Downs | 2B/SS | 3.23 | His power was down and his plate discipline was worse, but he is worth watching if things turnaround. |
| $0 | 59 | Jose Barrero | SS/OF | 4.89 | Was so, so good in Triple-A, and if he gets a shot, he jumps up to the $1 tier. |
| $0 | 60 | J.P. Crawford | SS | 4.46 | Glove guarantees him enough volume to stay on the radar, but not a fantasy roster. |
| $0 | 61 | Ronny Mauricio | SS | N/A | Has work to do in the high minors before I am ready to roster him. |
| $0 | 62 | Romy Gonzalez | SS | 4.68 | Intriguing minor league numbers and the White Sox have no geat options at 2B. |
| $0 | 63 | Nicky Lopez | SS | 4.21 | Took a big step forward offensively and still wasn’t a useful player in this format. |
| $0 | 64 | Hoy Park | 2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.50 | The 223 PA in Triple-A for NY in 2021 looks like a significant outlier and not sure I want to bet on him repeating that. |
| $0 | 65 | David Fletcher | 2B/SS | 4.21 | Was so useful in 2020, but it was a lot of BABIP but could be a volume play if you need help in-season. |
| $0 | 66 | Nick Gordon | 2B/SS/OF | 4.24 | Hits the ball harder than you might think, so maybe there is something here? |
| $0 | 67 | Yu Chang | 1B/SS/3B | 4.24 | Found himself late in 2021 and had a 177 wRC+ vs. LHP in the second half; could carve out a nice role as a small side platoon guy. |
| $0 | 68 | Kyle Farmer | SS/3B | 4.35 | I haven’t bought in but a 117 wRC+ in the second half can’t be completely ignored. |
| $0 | 69 | Willi Castro | 2B/SS/OF | 4.56 | He put up more than 6 P/G in 2020 and yes that was a short-season, but it makes him at least worth keeping an eye on. |
| $0 | 70 | Edmundo Sosa | 2B/SS | 4.42 | In my 2B ranks, I cited his 93rd percentile Max EV; here I will note that it was one ball at 114.6 mph and his next best was just 108.2 so don’t get too excited. |
| $0 | 71 | Aledmys Díaz | 1B/2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.62 | I keep wanting him to be young enough to still breakout, but he’s turning 32 this year. |
| $0 | 72 | Marcelo Mayer | SS | N/A | Looks like a very exciting prospect, but not remotely close and ETA matters a lot in Ottoneu. |
| $0 | 73 | Taylor Walls | SS | 4.00 | Gap power plays up in this format, but it’s often not enough, and his path to playing time isn’t clear. |
| $0 | 74 | Liover Peguero | SS | N/A | Hasn’t seen Double-A and is more projection than anything at this point. |
| $0 | 75 | Jose Tena | SS | N/A | Rising up prospect charts, but still hasn’t seen Double-A. |
| $0 | 76 | Gunnar Henderson | SS/3B | N/A | Seen some interest in him but my goodness does he K a lot. |
| $0 | 77 | Ryan Kreidler | SS | 4.80 | Not the most exciting prospect, but a swing change may have improved his outlook – worth watching to see what 2022 holds. |
| $0 | 78 | Orlando Arcia | SS/OF | 4.76 | Roster Resource shows him starting at 1B for the Braves but I am skeptical. |
| $0 | 79 | Eddys Leonard | 2B/SS/3B | N/A | Posted matching 145 wRC+ in A and High-A and the Dodgers seem to be decent at player development. |
| $0 | 80 | Jacob Amaya | SS | N/A | Less exciting than Leonard based on the numbers, but a bit closer. |
| $0 | 81 | Andrelton Simmons | SS | 4.01 | Offense never carried him, and the last two seasons advanced metrics have been mixed on his glove. |
| $0 | 82 | Nick Ahmed | SS | 4.11 | Offense and defense both declined, and not sure he should keep holding back Perdomo. |
| $0 | 83 | Ramón Urías | 2B/SS/3B | 4.49 | Nothing exciting here for Ottoneu managers. |
| $0 | 84 | Alcides Escobar | 2B/SS | 3.83 | His biggest impact in Ottoneu might be keeping down the price on Luis Garcia. |
| $0 | 85 | Luis Rengifo | SS/3B/OF | 4.46 | Remember when he appeared to be the primary return in a trade for Joc Pederson? |
A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.
Story’s career OPS is .972 at home versus a very pedestrian .752 away from Coors. I would politely suggest your comment that Story’s ranking would be the same no matter where he plays next year defies logic.
We have more than enough data at this point to know that Rockies players suffer a penalty on the road that is about as stiff as the benefit at home is strong. LeMahieu hasn’t shown any ill effects of leaving Coors – he’s been aging and it seems the ball hurt him a lot in 2021. Arenado had a higher wOBA with STL (a rough hitters park) as he did his last season with COL.
In that case, wouldn’t that mean that Story could still possibly be a 6.5ish ppg player if Coors isn’t that big of a factor? I know projections aren’t a fan, but I’m really struggling with the cut decision on him for $30. How much did the injury affect last year’s output?
He could be. But I am not expecting that big a bounce back. This is a case where I’m siding more with the projections.
LeMahieu’s performance with the Yankees certainly seems to torpedo my case but there’s reason to believe his ability with 2019’s bouncy ball to punch opposite field line drives over the Yank’s short right field was a unique case of its own.
As for Arenado, he had a decent 2021 but it was nothing like his big Colorado seasons. Not surprisingly he was bad at Busch Stadium where’ it’s hard to hit homers. Don’t why he wanted to go there. Yes, his results with the Cards were better than his last year in Denver, but that’s saying nothing because we all know 2020 was a disaster for him.
Comparing Arenado to his very down small sample 2020 isn’t good analysis. Compare to his every other year prior, and it’s obvious the wOBA takes a huge hit, from .390s to .330s. Arenado is now barely above average as a hitter. The power is still there, but the on base is mediocre.
Why is it better analysis to compare him to earlier, less relevant seasons? He’s been seeing his BB and BABIP decline for a while and he’s 30 now so we shouldn’t expect that stuff to get better. His FB rate keeps going up leading to the lower BABIP…he needs to make a change to his approach to turn things around if you want to see him return to his peak. That might happen but it’s not a bet I’d want to make.
Because you are comparing it to a quarter season that happened in the midst of a global pandemic while he was waiting to hear if he would be traded. The idea that you are ignoring the previous 6 or 7 seasons for 2020 doesn’t make a good argument.
I’m a firm believer in the Coors-on-the-road effect, but I just don’t think Arenado “succeeding” in St Louis is a good example to use. I also agree that Arenado is getting worse, but he ran FB rates in the 40s in Coors (except for 2018) and the park helped support a normal BABIP. The second he leaves, it falls apart.
There was very little materially different between pre-2020 and 2020 for him in his batted ball profile. The LD rate fell a bit, but most of his problem was a decreasing HR/FB rate and a near-zero infield hit rate. Those are what killed his BABIP, not the ever-so-slightly higher FB rate.
Those both rebounded in St. Louis and yet the BABIP didn’t. Coors was masking those problems by helping him maintain a .300 BABIP.