Chad Young’s Ottoneu SP Ranks
I have some good news and some bad news. Although you may think the bad news is good news. We’ll see.
The good news is, I am making sure that all of my rankings are up in time for cut deadline day! The bad news is that, in order to meet this deadline, I had to sacrifice my notes column for the pitcher rankings. If it helps, you can imagine that I wrote something witty, insightful or in rare cases both, as you look at each row below.
Chad’s Other Ottoneu Rankings: C |1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | RP
A few notes that would have been in the notes column:
- Yes, I know you think Walker Buehler should be higher. Look at that projected P/IP though! I already moved him way up from where he projects.
- If you promised me Jacob deGrom would get 150 innings, he would be over Gerrit Cole, easily.
- I am very interested to see where Danny Duffy signs and how he looks in Spring Training or Summer Camp or Fall Practice or whatever we get this year.
- Ohtani is probably about a $15-$20 SP, maybe less depending on innings – his bat drives the majority of his value.
- I feel like we should call Baz and McClanahan the Shanes, right?
- No Trevor Bauer is not on here. There are two reasons for this: 1) I still think there is a good chance MLB comes down hard on him and so it is very hard to pin down his theoretical on-field value. 2) I am not drafting him. I am not here to judge anyone who does – you adding him to your fantasy team does not impact anything, nor does my leaving him off my fantasy team. That said, I have no desire to see him succeed and even less desire to benefit from that success. I don’t want to find myself hoping he pitches or that he pitches well or anything like that. So I am not drafting him, so he is not on this list. If you would like to know where he would be if I were somehow forced to add him – he would be right after Caleb Kilian.
Chad Young’s Ottoneu SP Ranks
| Tier | Rank | Player | Projected P/IP |
|---|---|---|---|
| $40-$50 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 5.56 |
| $40-$50 | 2 | Jacob deGrom | 6.58 |
| $40-$50 | 3 | Corbin Burnes | 5.54 |
| $34-$39 | 4 | Max Scherzer | 5.36 |
| $34-$39 | 5 | Zack Wheeler | 4.75 |
| $34-$39 | 6 | Shane Bieber | 5.24 |
| $28-$33 | 7 | Brandon Woodruff | 4.84 |
| $28-$33 | 8 | Aaron Nola | 4.56 |
| $28-$33 | 9 | Logan Webb | 4.70 |
| $21-$25 | 10 | Charlie Morton | 4.86 |
| $21-$25 | 11 | Sandy Alcantara | 4.46 |
| $21-$25 | 12 | Robbie Ray | 5.00 |
| $21-$25 | 13 | Chris Sale | 5.21 |
| $21-$25 | 14 | Blake Snell | 4.74 |
| $21-$25 | 15 | Justin Verlander | 4.97 |
| $21-$25 | 16 | Walker Buehler | 4.28 |
| $16-$20 | 17 | Trevor Rogers | 4.73 |
| $16-$20 | 18 | Frankie Montas | 4.69 |
| $16-$20 | 19 | Kevin Gausman | 4.56 |
| $16-$20 | 20 | Max Fried | 4.29 |
| $16-$20 | 21 | Joe Musgrove | 4.46 |
| $16-$20 | 22 | Freddy Peralta | 4.52 |
| $16-$20 | 23 | Lucas Giolito | 4.39 |
| $16-$20 | 24 | Carlos Rodón | 5.14 |
| $16-$20 | 25 | Luis Castillo | 4.23 |
| $16-$20 | 26 | Pablo López | 4.66 |
| $16-$20 | 27 | Shane McClanahan | 4.79 |
| $16-$20 | 28 | José Berríos | 4.44 |
| $16-$20 | 29 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 4.70 |
| $16-$20 | 30 | Jack Flaherty | 4.33 |
| $16-$20 | 31 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 4.51 |
| $10-$15 | 32 | Julio Urías | 4.04 |
| $10-$15 | 33 | Dylan Cease | 4.52 |
| $10-$15 | 34 | Sean Manaea | 4.63 |
| $10-$15 | 35 | Yu Darvish | 4.47 |
| $10-$15 | 36 | Nathan Eovaldi | 4.51 |
| $10-$15 | 37 | Shane Baz | 4.78 |
| $10-$15 | 38 | Alek Manoah | 4.40 |
| $10-$15 | 39 | Framber Valdez | 4.56 |
| $10-$15 | 40 | Alex Wood | 4.46 |
| $10-$15 | 41 | Clayton Kershaw | 4.51 |
| $10-$15 | 42 | Mike Clevinger | 4.68 |
| $10-$15 | 43 | Zac Gallen | 4.17 |
| $10-$15 | 44 | Lance Lynn | 4.35 |
| $10-$15 | 45 | Michael Kopech | 4.90 |
| $10-$15 | 46 | Chris Bassitt | 4.33 |
| $6-9 | 47 | Alex Cobb | 4.23 |
| $6-9 | 48 | Luis Severino | 4.26 |
| $6-9 | 49 | Ian Anderson | 3.88 |
| $6-9 | 50 | Logan Gilbert | 4.22 |
| $6-9 | 51 | Patrick Sandoval | 4.22 |
| $6-9 | 52 | Jordan Montgomery | 4.14 |
| $6-9 | 53 | Tarik Skubal | 4.29 |
| $6-9 | 54 | Huascar Ynoa | 4.16 |
| $6-9 | 55 | Carlos Carrasco | 4.12 |
| $6-9 | 56 | Sixto Sánchez | 4.29 |
| $6-9 | 57 | Tyler Glasnow | #N/A |
| $6-9 | 58 | Tanner Houck | 4.57 |
| $6-9 | 59 | Joe Ryan | 4.07 |
| $6-9 | 60 | Aaron Ashby | 5.51 |
| $6-9 | 61 | Luis Garcia | 4.04 |
| $6-9 | 62 | Ranger Suárez | 3.95 |
| $6-9 | 63 | Sonny Gray | 3.92 |
| $3-$5 | 64 | Tyler Mahle | 3.76 |
| $3-$5 | 65 | Drew Rasmussen | 4.42 |
| $3-$5 | 66 | Anthony DeSclafani | 3.71 |
| $3-$5 | 67 | Marcus Stroman | 3.66 |
| $3-$5 | 68 | Tylor Megill | 4.17 |
| $3-$5 | 69 | Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 | 4.03 |
| $3-$5 | 70 | Jon Gray | 4.03 |
| $3-$5 | 71 | Jesús Luzardo | 3.93 |
| $3-$5 | 72 | Josiah Gray | 3.20 |
| $3-$5 | 73 | Max Meyer | 3.51 |
| $3-$5 | 74 | José Urquidy | 3.51 |
| $3-$5 | 75 | Triston McKenzie | 3.81 |
| $3-$5 | 76 | Dustin May | 5.18 |
| $3-$5 | 77 | Andrew Heaney | 3.81 |
| $3-$5 | 78 | Corey Kluber | 3.90 |
| $3-$5 | 79 | Germán Márquez | 3.53 |
| $3-$5 | 80 | Noah Syndergaard | 3.62 |
| $3-$5 | 81 | Dinelson Lamet | 6.39 |
| $3-$5 | 82 | Roansy Contreras | 3.92 |
| $3-$5 | 83 | George Kirby | 3.79 |
| $3-$5 | 84 | Edward Cabrera | 4.45 |
| $3-$5 | 85 | Grayson Rodriguez | 3.76 |
| $3-$5 | 86 | Reid Detmers | 3.96 |
| $3-$5 | 87 | Bailey Ober | 3.84 |
| $3-$5 | 88 | Adbert Alzolay | 3.82 |
| $3-$5 | 89 | Casey Mize | 3.61 |
| $3-$5 | 90 | Nick Lodolo | 3.93 |
| $3-$5 | 91 | Luis Patiño | 4.10 |
| $3-$5 | 92 | Steven Matz | 3.99 |
| $3-$5 | 93 | James Paxton | 4.37 |
| $3-$5 | 94 | Chris Paddack | 4.10 |
| $3-$5 | 95 | Stephen Strasburg | 3.83 |
| $3-$5 | 96 | Cal Quantrill | 3.39 |
| $3-$5 | 97 | Zach Plesac | 3.21 |
| $1-$2 | 98 | Tony Gonsolin | 3.36 |
| $1-$2 | 99 | Elieser Hernandez | 3.71 |
| $1-$2 | 100 | Jack Leiter | #N/A |
| $1-$2 | 101 | Reiver Sanmartin | 3.55 |
| $1-$2 | 102 | Brady Singer | 4.12 |
| $1-$2 | 103 | JT Brubaker | 3.64 |
| $1-$2 | 104 | Mike Soroka | 3.63 |
| $1-$2 | 105 | Marco Gonzales | 3.30 |
| $1-$2 | 106 | Adam Wainwright | 3.63 |
| $1-$2 | 107 | Kyle Gibson | 3.45 |
| $1-$2 | 108 | Daniel Espino | #N/A |
| $1-$2 | 109 | Cade Cavalli | 3.43 |
| $1-$2 | 110 | Hunter Greene | 3.54 |
| $1-$2 | 111 | Emerson Hancock | #N/A |
| $1-$2 | 112 | John Means | 3.80 |
| $1-$2 | 113 | Rich Hill | 3.15 |
| $1-$2 | 114 | Bobby Miller | #N/A |
| $1-$2 | 115 | Jameson Taillon | 3.61 |
| $1-$2 | 116 | Eric Lauer | 3.53 |
| $1-$2 | 117 | Adrian Houser | 3.32 |
| $1-$2 | 118 | Nick Pivetta | 3.87 |
| $1-$2 | 119 | Ryan Yarbrough | 3.05 |
| $1-$2 | 120 | Zach Thompson | 3.25 |
| $1-$2 | 121 | James Kaprielian | 3.90 |
| $1-$2 | 122 | MacKenzie Gore | 3.67 |
| $1-$2 | 123 | Yusei Kikuchi | 3.99 |
| $1-$2 | 124 | Dane Dunning | 3.98 |
| $1-$2 | 125 | Kenta Maeda | #N/A |
| $1-$2 | 126 | Tucker Davidson | 3.73 |
| $1-$2 | 127 | Taijuan Walker | 3.48 |
| $1-$2 | 128 | Zach Eflin | 3.47 |
| $1-$2 | 129 | Nick Martínez | #N/A |
| $1-$2 | 130 | Matthew Boyd | 4.07 |
| $1-$2 | 131 | Aaron Civale | 3.46 |
| $1-$2 | 132 | Kyle Hendricks | 2.99 |
| $0 | 133 | Chris Flexen 플렉센 | 3.62 |
| $0 | 134 | Mitch Keller | 3.40 |
| $0 | 135 | Nestor Cortes | 3.80 |
| $0 | 136 | Justin Dunn | 3.53 |
| $0 | 137 | Dakota Hudson | 3.21 |
| $0 | 138 | Dylan Bundy | 3.33 |
| $0 | 139 | Ross Stripling | 3.56 |
| $0 | 140 | Carlos Hernandez | 3.33 |
| $0 | 141 | Michael Lorenzen | 3.25 |
| $0 | 142 | Cristian Javier | 4.13 |
| $0 | 143 | Cole Irvin | 3.23 |
| $0 | 144 | Domingo Germán | 4.08 |
| $0 | 145 | Austin Gomber | 2.96 |
| $0 | 146 | Kris Bubic | 3.56 |
| $0 | 147 | Matthew Liberatore | 3.28 |
| $0 | 148 | Zack Greinke | 3.43 |
| $0 | 149 | David Price | 3.61 |
| $0 | 150 | Wade Miley | 3.11 |
| $0 | 151 | Danny Duffy | 4.09 |
| $0 | 152 | Patrick Corbin | 3.63 |
| $0 | 153 | Miles Mikolas | 3.41 |
| $0 | 154 | Paolo Espino | 2.87 |
| $0 | 155 | Luke Weaver | 3.48 |
| $0 | 156 | Michael Wacha | 3.65 |
| $0 | 157 | Brad Keller | 3.72 |
| $0 | 158 | Michael Pineda | 3.18 |
| $0 | 159 | Chris Archer | 3.38 |
| $0 | 160 | Jose Quintana | 3.76 |
| $0 | 161 | Mike Minor | 3.89 |
| $0 | 162 | Mick Abel | #N/A |
| $0 | 163 | Ryne Nelson | #N/A |
| $0 | 164 | Kyle Harrison | #N/A |
| $0 | 165 | Caleb Kilian | #N/A |
A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.
Thanks for getting this in before the keeper deadline.
What’s going on with Julio Urias’ projection? He’s projected for much worse p/ip than everyone else around him, including guys like Bassitt and Cobb. 4.04 would be almost 1.4 less than last year for him. I realize there’s a good chance for HR regression for him, but that seems like a lot.
Two things I think are happening. One is the HR regression and I thin that is probably overblown – he has shown he can keep HR down and while he may regress, I don’t think he regresses that far. The other is reverting closer to career walk and K numbers. It’s a small shift, from 26.2% K rate and 5.1% walk rate last year to about 24% and 6.5%, which is closer to his previous norms. That’s not a ton, but over 100 hitters, that is a loss of 4.5 points from extra walks, and 6 points from fewer K, plus he probably loses another 3ish points from throwing fewer innings over those 100 hitters. Losing 13 points over 100 hitters is about half a point per inning. Add in an extra 2 HR per 100 hitters and you get 1.5 P/IP down from last year. I don’t expect that big a fall, otherwise he would be ranked lower.