“Deep League Hitter Pickups.” So promised a bulletin we received, unbidden, from America’s Leading Fantasy Sports Aggregator. Likewise “Under the Radar Waiver Wire Pickups.” These communiques used to annoy us, because, absolutely without exception, every player thus recommended was long gone in every league we played in. But then we realized: these bulletins from ALFSA are for people who play Fantasy baseball the way we play Fantasy football: join a small league with shallow rosters, prepare for your draft the day before it happens and no earlier, check waiver wire recommendations on Tuesdays, check again Sunday mornings to make sure your players remain alive and ambulatory, and that’s it.

All in all, a sensible way to do things, but when it comes to Fantasy baseball, prudence and we are strangers. And this season, our folly has led us to a couple of leagues where the number of teams, limited player pool, and shortness of roster space produce only three choices when one of our players gets hurt, gets sent down, or is terminally disappointing: (1) a vacant roster spot; (2) an occupied roster spot that might as well be vacant; and (3) a roster spot whose occupant, though widely shunned for excellent reasons, has a faint chance of doing something useful.

Unfortunately, though the season is in its infancy, we’ve already had occasion to wonder who might be behind Door Number Three, and we thought we’d share with you the fruits of our research. Here, then, are five hitters—one at each position, with the middle infielder qualifying at both spots—whom we either would get, did get, or tried to get when in extremis. All of them are owned in fewer than 50% of NFBC leagues, which means they are more likely than not available to you. Hope you don’t need them.
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One week into the season, it’s obviously too early to place much weight on any player’s performance thus far. In these early days of the season, I like to instead take a look at situational trends that alter players’ fantasy potential going forward. From position battles to lineup placement, there’s plenty to talk about from a fantasy perspective, without looking too much into small-sample statistics.

I identified three middle infielders whose fantasy arrows are pointing up, two of whom are widely available on waiver wires. (Position eligibility and ownership percentages from Yahoo.)

Marcus Semien – SS – 47% owned

When this season opened, it didn’t look like much changed for Oakland’s starting shortstop from the start of last season. Semien worked his way up the batting order as last season went on, bouncing around between the No. 2 and No. 7 spots from mid-May onward, and even saw 16 starts in the leadoff spot. However, 2017 started with the 26-year-old right back down at the bottom of the lineup, batting ninth twice and eighth once in the team’s first three games.

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4/8/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18! 

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Leading Off:

• How’d those Charlotte Knights look?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Collin McHugh shutdown for 6 weeks
  • Joe Musgrove 34% Y!, 18% E, 54% C
• Rich Hill to DL w/blister
  • Alex Wood at CHC, v. ARI 3% Y!, 2% E, 20% C

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The season is less than a week old, but the ottoneu waiver wire is as busy as ever. The sample sizes of early performances are microscopic, but if you want to snag the next breakout or “popup” performer the early bird gets the worm. In what will likely be a recurring feature again this year, let’s look at the ottoneu most added (and cut) players in the early going.

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At the beginning of the year, a couple of the things I’m keeping close tabs on for hitters are lineup spot and platoon situation. If a player hits in a better lineup spot than expected, they immediately get a value bump. That concept isn’t Earth shattering, and Mike Podhorzer discussed some players whose value changed due to batting order here and here.

A player who shares less playing time than expected gets a value boost, too — under most circumstances. If you’re in a league that allows daily lineup changes, there’s zero downside for a player playing more than expected since you can conceivably still sit them in their weaker split situation. If, however, that player makes strides against the handedness of pitcher they typically struggle against, the additional playing time can pay off in the form of more counting stats. Having kept tabs on those things during the opening week of the season, a trio of players stand out as better options than I expected entering the year. Read the rest of this entry »

In our last edition of Deep League Draft targets, we took a closer look at three catchers who, perhaps overlooked in standard leagues, represent attractive draft day targets in deeper ones. Today, we move onto first base.

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My Tout Wars prep continues. I have already examined the league’s historical aspects which I have used to create initial auction values and a draft outline. With the initial projections out of the way, I am refining them. One step in this process is to find the replacement level player and adjust players who will miss time accordingly.

The concept behind the replacement level player is fairly simple. If a good player is expected to miss significant time, his fantasy value is based on just the games he is expected to play. For the games he misses, some lesser player (replacement level player) will fill. The better player’s total value will be both his and the replacement player’s contribution.

For example, I don’t expect Yoan Moncada to get called any earlier than the Super Two deadline around June 1st. For the months he’s in the minors, a less talent replacement level player will be subbing in for him. The same idea works with pitchers. Tyson Ross is expected to miss at least a couple of months so a replacement is needed until he gets healthy.

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Every year, people around the country decide that the beginning of the year is the time to make resolutions. These New Year’s resolutions are typically ridiculous attempts at self improvement that tend to fade away by Valentine’s Day.

If I sound angry or bitter, I apologize. I just quit smoking and went on a diet. Read the rest of this entry »

First, a quick thought on Jose Fernandez. A lot has already been said about the joy and enthusiasm with which he played the game and I second every last bit of it. Watching him pitch, he appeared to exist on another plane, one lacking a dimension for growth or improvement because how could that even be possible? His jump from A-ball to the majors was simultaneously remarkable and laughably uneventful. He even made Tommy John look easy.

Perhaps the adversities that Fernandez experienced in Cuba equipped him with the knowledge and perspective to make the athletic adversity felt by most seem inconsequential. I don’t know. What I do know is that Jose Fernandez put a face and vividness to the Cuban ballplayer’s experience that our sports media previously only alluded to in off-handed whispers. He shared personal experiences so heavy, their mere mention caused him to float above his peers.

I’ll miss watching him pitch. I wish I watched him more. But I’ll try not to think of what could have been because what was, was pretty damned significant.

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Ah, the final week of fantasy baseball. The time of year when guys you would normally never consider rostering become crucial lynchpins in your quest for championship glory. If you’re still reading fantasy content in the last week of September, chances are you’re in a highly competitive league, so I’m not going to waste your time talking about players that are likely owned. Instead, I’m focusing solely on players who are available in nearly every league. (If speed is your need, take a look at Mike Podhorzer’s column from this morning.)

Adam Rosales – San Diego Padres

Shocked doesn’t come close to describing my reaction to Rosales’ 2016 numbers. Entering this season, the 33-year-old journeyman infielder had a 0.9 Wins Above Replacement through 1,226 major-league plate appearances. This year, he’s sitting on a 2.3 WAR, with just 245 PA. In the past, Rosales always hit lefties better than righties, but it’s not like he mashed lefties either:

• vs LHP (pre-2016) – 529 PA – .242/.311/.375, .133 ISO, 15 HR
• vs RHP (pre-2016) – 697 PA – .215/.281/.317, .102 ISO, 12 HR

Now take a gander at his numbers from this season, his first in San Diego:

• vs LHP (2016) – 113 PA – .242/.354/.505, .263 ISO, 6 HR
• vs RHP (2016) – 132 PA – .224/.295/.500, .276 ISO, 7 HR

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