Archive for Waiver Wire

Dunning-Kreuger and the $1 Player

In my Tout Wars auction held just over a week ago, 72 players were rostered who cost just $1. While I rostered my standard four, one owner got 10 with two others at nine*. I wondered if there is a point that having too many $1 players on a team is a detriment.

First, a little background on the auction. Here is the plot of the auction bids compared to the actual 2019 results.

The 2019 production leader was at $47 (Razzball) and $43 (FanGraphs auction calculator). Six players went at or above the $47 mark and eight over $43. The idea of spending more early on is to grab some $2 to $8 guys in the end game for $1. In this auction, everyone was taking that approach. I used my standard “lesser stars and scrubs” approach.
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When to Breakout the Wallet with FAAB Bids?

While it might be better to focus on FAAB usage right before the season starts, I wanted to have an idea on how to focus my draft resources. Also, FAAB management was one of my major faults after I picked over my 2019 teams. It was an issue and I need to address it. Now is the time. I took the 50 players with the highest average FAAB bids in the 2019 NFBC Main Event ($1000 in FAAB) and found which players were the best and worse deals and did the best deals have similar actionable traits.

Note: One unintended side effect was that the minimum average value was $51, so all players with a bid of over $50.

To rank the player’s usefulness, I pair them up against each other and let my Twitter followers which of the two players were a better deal last year. While not ideal or the only method I could have used (I could create from value to EOS), it was the quickest and the rankings pass the idiot check (me, myself, and I).

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Sunday Night FAAB & Waiver Wire Chat

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: First, a little house keeping.

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: The chats will move to a weeknight in the offseason. I haven’t decided which night, possibly Monday night. It will also bounce around during the postseason since I won’t do a chat with a playoff game going on.

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Second, I’ve spent all weekend in the rain watching my son play soccer. I’m not even close catching up on the news

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Tout Wars FAAB results:

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: GHampson: 22
RHill: 16
ZEflin: 15
JHapp: 13
MGonzalez: 12
HCastro: 11
JRamirez: 6
JUrquidy: 3
GRichards: 1
NWalker: 1
AHaseley: 1
JSheffield: 0
DPomeranz: 0
JDiaz: 0
JHoffman: 0
OArcia: 0
MWacha: 0
AAlmonte: 0
YGomes: 0
ADiaz: 0

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A Week and a Half of Pirates Saves: Deep League Wire

After the shocking news broke of Felipe Vazquez’s arrest, Pirates saves will be earned by someone else in the bullpen over the final week and a half of the season. Fantasy owners don’t even have to play in deep leagues to speculate here, but luckily, all the candidates are lightly owned.

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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Hello everyone. Give me a sec while I collect tonight’s FAAB bids from Tout Wars

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction:
NHoerner: 191
NMarkakis: 153
KLewis: 75
DLamet: 51
LUrias: 39
SMurphy: 37
CStewart: 37
BreAnderson: 36
NMartini: 27
TFrazier: 26
JChacin: 26
AVoth: 10
LSeverino: 6
ARomine: 3
JrgLopez: 3
TDuffey: 2
SVogt: 2
GGarcia: 1
MDubon: 0
JCastro: 0
MRojas: 0
SLong: 0
DSmeltzer: 0
WCastillo: 0

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: JDiaz: 77
KLewis: 66
NHoerner: 66
JCueto: 13
CMaybin: 8
ROHearn: 2
BNimmo: 2
AVoth: 1

7:35
Jay: Have Rizzo in 10 team redraft. Who are some good pickups?

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: Tough to know without options.

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FAAB Projections (9/14/19)

Compared to last week when nothing happened, a few interesting names popped up this week for those still with FAAB left to spend.

The projection guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.
Projected FAAB For Hitters
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Cory Spangenberg 2B | MIL 0% 1% 1% $1
Ryan McBroom 1B | KC 0% 1% 1% $1
Cornelius Randolph LF | PHI 0% 1% 1% $1
Tyler Wade 2B | NYY 0% 1% 1% $1
Jose Trevino C | TEX 1% 2% 1% $1
Reese McGuire C | TOR 1% 2% 1% $1
Dylan Moore SS | SEA 2% 3% 1% $1
Cedric Mullins CF | BAL 2% 3% 1% $1
Austin Romine C | NYY 4% 6% 2% $1
Martin Maldonado C | HOU 4% 5% 1% $1
Kyle Lewis CF | SEA 5% 14% 9% $4
Mauricio Dubon SS | SF 6% 8% 2% $1
Nico Hoerner SS | CHC 7% 15% 8% $3
Victor Reyes LF | DET 8% 11% 3% $1
Aledmys Diaz SS | HOU 8% 9% 1% $1
Sean Murphy C | OAK 11% 17% 6% $2
Joey Wendle 2B | TB 13% 15% 2% $1
Austin Nola SS | SEA 17% 21% 4% $2
Christin Stewart LF | DET 17% 18% 1% $1
Eric Thames RF | MIL 18% 21% 3% $2
Nick Solak 2B | TEX 19% 26% 7% $7
Trent Grisham RF | MIL 19% 23% 4% $3
Garrett Cooper LF | MIA 25% 27% 2% $5
Adam Frazier 2B | PIT 26% 33% 7% $12
Tommy Edman SS | STL 34% 46% 12% $30
Starlin Castro 2B | MIA 38% 48% 10% $29
Robinson Cano 2B | NYM 43% 49% 6% $26
Jorge Alfaro C | MIA 43% 44% 1% $18
Wil Myers LF | SD 48% 66% 18% $68
Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF 49% 52% 3% $28
  • Kyle Lewis: For any owner needing outfield help, he’s a must-add. The highly-touted prospect is hitting .400/.375/1.067 with three homers in his first four games. If anyone has money left, it’s going towards Lewis.
  • Nico Hoerner and Mauricio Dubon: Both are regulars with Hoerner starting five straight and Dubon nine straight. They both are the same skill-set of a great eye for contact with some speed and power.
  • Nick Solak: A 26% ownership rate is criminally low for someone hitting .342/.453/.570. He’s started 10 straight games while batting cleanup in all but one of those games.
  • Adam Frazier, Tommy Edman, Starlin Castro, and Robinson Cano: While not the sexy options like Hoerner and Dubon, they’re comparable hitters.
  • Wil Myers: A huge jump in ownership, but he should have been owned in deeper leagues since the Franmil Reyes was traded to the Indians.
  • Sean Murphy: Since being called up, Muphy is hitting .409/.458/1.091 in eight games with four homers.
Projected FAAB For Pitchers
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Ronald Bolanos SP | SD 0% 2% 2% $1
Seung-Hwan Oh RP | COL 0% 1% 1% $1
James Karinchak RP | CLE 1% 3% 2% $1
Jorge Lopez RP | KC 2% 5% 3% $1
Jairo Diaz RP | COL 3% 7% 4% $1
Nick Wittgren RP | CLE 3% 4% 1% $1
Chad Green RP | NYY 4% 5% 1% $1
Anthony Kay SP | TOR 7% 9% 2% $1
Yusmeiro Petit RP | OAK 7% 8% 1% $1
Will Harris RP | HOU 8% 9% 1% $1
Trevor May RP | MIN 9% 10% 1% $1
Arodys Vizcaino RP | SEA 10% 11% 1% $1
Trent Thornton RP | TOR 11% 13% 2% $1
Drew Smyly SP | PHI 14% 16% 2% $1
Johnny Cueto SP | SF 21% 46% 25% $21
Justus Sheffield RP | SEA 27% 35% 8% $1
Dylan Bundy SP | BAL 28% 30% 2% $1
Michael Wacha SP | STL 33% 37% 4% $1
Gio Gonzalez SP | MIL 34% 38% 4% $1
Ross Stripling SP | LAD 38% 40% 2% $1
Seth Lugo RP | NYM 42% 45% 3% $1
Zach Eflin SP | PHI 43% 45% 2% $1
Alex Young SP | ARI 45% 56% 11% $6
Nathan Eovaldi SP | BOS 45% 52% 7% $2
Sandy Alcantara SP | MIA 46% 49% 3% $0
Merrill Kelly SP | ARI 47% 54% 7% $3
Chase Anderson SP | MIL 47% 50% 3% $0
Reynaldo Lopez SP | CHW 48% 56% 8% $4
Martin Perez SP | MIN 50% 55% 5% $2
  • Johnny Cueto: He’s back and threw five shutout innings. His fastball sat at 91.3 mph which is at his preinjury level. I am a little worried he posted just a 6% SwStr% on the game.
  • Alex Young: Young finally pushed his ownership over the 50% mark. He’s been one of the few decent starting options on the waiver wire.
  • Michael Wacha: I noticed while going over the Vegas lines, Michael Wacha had stepped up his game in the second half with a 3.86 ERA and a 4.14 xFIP.
  • Nathan Eovaldi: Why? Let me look. A two-step against the Giants and at the Rays. It’s tough to trust a 5.00 to 5.50 ERA talent pitcher.

Closer Rankings (Saves focused)

  1. Seth Lugo
  2. Nick Wittgren
  3. James Karinchak
  4. Trevor May
  5. Will Harris
  6. Chad Green
  7. Jairo Díaz
  8. Seung-Hwan Oh
  9. Yusmeiro Petit
  10. Arodys Vizcaíno
Week 25 FAAB Bids in 2019 NFBC Main Event
Add Avg Bid Leagues (38)
Gavin Lux $11 35
Kyle Gibson $9 9
Zach Eflin $8 5
Johnny Cueto $8 5
Robinson Cano $7 9
Rich Hill $6 23
Brandon Nimmo $6 10
Dylan Moore $6 23
Tyler Glasnow $6 14
Justus Sheffield $5 17
Patrick Sandoval $5 6
Raimel Tapia $5 6
Seth Brown $5 6
Adam Haseley $4 5
Ross Stripling $4 8
Brendan McKay $4 14
Jairo Diaz $4 8
Joey Wendle $3 11
Dawel Lugo $3 9
Josh James $3 6
Harold Castro $3 5
Drew Smyly $3 5
Josh Rojas $2 17
Mauricio Dubon $2 10
Robert Dugger $2 13
Austin Pruitt $2 6
Matt Beaty $2 8
Tyler Beede $2 5
Garrett Hampson $2 5
Tyler Mahle $2 13
Dereck Rodriguez $2 10
Phillip Ervin $2 5
Ben Zobrist $2 10
Anthony Kay $1 7
Austin Voth $1 5
Julio Urias $1 6
Austin Hedges $1 6

 

Week 26 FAAB Bids in 2018 NFBC Main Event
Add Avg Bid Leagues (34)
Yairo Munoz $16 6
Ross Stripling $16 5
Sandy Alcantara $14 12
Daniel Mengden $14 7
Brandon Lowe $13 6
Terrance Gore $11 9
Jose Fernandez $10 11
Yoshihisa Hirano $10 21
Ryan Borucki $10 12
Delino DeShields $9 5
Erick Fedde $7 24
Ty Buttrey $7 20
Jose Alvarado $6 9
Chris Stratton $6 6
Ji-Man Choi $5 14
Willians Astudillo $5 19
Sean Reid-Foley $5 9
Joe Ross $5 10
Steve Cishek $4 10
Cody Reed $4 7
Nate Jones $4 6
Jorge Bonifacio $4 6
Tyler Skaggs $3 5
Brett Anderson $3 6
Jason Vargas $3 7
Daniel Norris $3 8
Christin Stewart $3 10
Jake Bauers $3 7
Wilmer Difo $3 6
Jake Cave $2 7
Aaron Altherr $2 5
Joe Mauer $1 5
Robbie Erlin $1 7
Victor Caratini $1 9

 


Matt Beaty and Yu Chang: Deep League Wire

Injuries have pushed these two hitters into starting roles and without a whole lot of fanfare, are therefore likely to be available in your deeper league. With only two and a half weeks to go, buying playing time is the best strategy to fill holes.

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Waiver Wire Week 24: 10 SP Targets

Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 20% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy Pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, ordered by ownage %:

Under 20% Owned

Homer Bailey (Oakland Athletics, 19%) – In September, scrutinizing expected matchups is critical and Bailey could have a favorable schedule across your fantasy playoffs, save for a date with Houston next week. In the short term, he gets the Tigers one start after flexing a fantastic splitter against the Yankees. There’s upside for more than a strikeout per inning against one of the worst lineups in the game, and those that are looking for a strong option to close the season should be excited for his pair of starts against the Rangers and Mariners.

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Sheldon Neuse and Ronald Guzman: Deep League Wire

It’s an exciting time in the fantasy world when the calendar flips to September, as rosters expand, resulting in call-ups galore. New players get opportunities for playing time and it gives us fantasy owners a chance to plug some holes with a month to go in the season.

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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry about no chat last week.

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the @toutwars mixed league FAAB bids

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: GLux: 103
SHilliard: 99
JCave: 64
DanNorris: 55
CMoran: 53
JLuzardo: 51
SCastro: 33
TBeede: 26
SDoolittle: 24
JCueto: 20
RRodriguez: 19
BDrury: 19
AFrazier: 13
WFont: 11
JFraley: 7
DVerHagen: 6
DPeters: 6
RDugger: 6
JZimmermann: 6
ACabrera: 4
SGreene: 3
TLocastro: 1
RCano: 1
JProfar: 1
TFlowers: 0
IKinerFalefa: 0
DAgrazal: 0

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: SManaea: 88
CBiggio: 57
NLowe: 23
AKittredge: 17
JBauers: 17
WFlores: 15
JMeans: 11
SBrown: 8
SHilliard: 4
TDArnaud: 4
WHarris: 3
TShaw: 3
AToro: 3
TFlowers: 0
MDubon: 0

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