Yesterday, I wrote about the replacement level hitters in the NFBC 12-team Online Championship (OC) and the 15-team Main Event (ME). In the comments, Joe Wilkey asked:

There are a couple of good questions here, so it’s time to start working through them. I’ll start with “Is batting average unpredictable?” Yes, with any given player’s actual range being unacceptable for a fantasy manager. Looking back at Steamer Projections (2010 Steamer to 2021), I found the standard deviation for the difference between the projected and actual batting average. Read the rest of this entry »

If you go to our 2021 Leaderboards, look at team relief pitcher stats, and sort by wins, you’ll see an interesting top five. The Rays, as you might have guessed, are holding the one spot by 10 wins at 56. They are followed by the Giants (46 wins), the Yankees (45 wins), and the Mets and Brewers (tied with 44 wins). If you’re like me and you’ve given up on your pitching ratios long, long ago, but are still fighting to win your league, you need wins and saves. Strikeouts are also welcome, too.

Read the rest of this entry »

In most weekly leagues, the ability to add and drop players is gone for this season. Since there are no more moves, I’m going to analyze the most added and dropped players in NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship with the main goal to create a composite replacement-level player.

For reference, the Online Championship (OC) leagues have 12 teams while the Main Event (ME) has 15. Both of the leagues require 23 starters each week with 7 bench spots (no IL spots). At all times, 360 players will be rostered in an Online league and 450 in a Main Event league. The reason I decided on the two NFBC formats were:

• The data is freely available.
• The information is from several leagues (43 Main Events, 199 Online Championships) with the same ruleset.
• The leagues remain competitive longer since there is decent money on the line.
• With two formats (12-team and 15-team), a comparison can be done on the different player pools.

I know at times we may seem a little NFBC centric here at Rotographs. Now, if some other platform had the ability to select a league type and make available all the adds and drops, I’d use them. The NFBC is the only platform that offers this service. Read the rest of this entry »

Congrats for making to the season’s end and hopefully I’ve been of some help during the season. I’ll see everyone next season. -Jeff

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

The Final Week Decisions Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

League Updates

Strategy Section

• Final Week Strategies & Decisions
  • No fear of droping players
  • Categories categories categories
  • Players in a pennant race
  • Younger players
  • Hot hand
  • Projections vs. final month stats
  • Roster flexibility in the final week
  • Go with your gut
  • Rotation schedules revamped for playoff bound teams

Injry Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.

Housekeeping

• Upcoming Episode Schedule
• Thank you for listening !!!

Follow us on Twitter

• Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY)
• Reuven Guy (@mlbinjuryguru)
• Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod)

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This time of year, there tend to be a flurry of veteran players cut as Ottoneu managers either try to grab young upside for the future or dump underperforming veterans to add someone who they think can help them down the stretch. This presents a nice opportunity to find some buy-low candidates before the off-season even starts. Read the rest of this entry »

The following recommendations are based on just winning next week. Nothing matters at this point so don’t be afraid to release any “stars” if they don’t help you win. It could mean all closers for a pitching staff. Or dropping all closers. Putting in all sluggers (e.g. DJ Peters and Jesus Sanchez). There are no weeks like but it’s time to bring home some trophies and cash.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

The Mid-September Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Strategy Section

• Last 2 weeks of the season
  • No more fear of droping players
  • Specific team schedules in the penultimate week, and lineup decisions
  • Contending teams and playing time

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.

Live show announcement!

Follow us on Twitter

• Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY)
• Reuven Guy (@mlbinjuryguru)
• Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod)

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The dropped players make up a shortlist this week as the season winds down. Lots of the moves are from the fantasy managers playing the weekly short game and not caring about the long-term production. They are the right moves with just three weeks left in the season.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in six to nine leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report. Read the rest of this entry »

Like the last couple of weeks, this week is again low on usable hitters, but there are plenty of one-start options on the wire.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »