Big Kid Adds (9/6/22)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more of these leagues:

Corbin Carroll (9) and Gunnar Henderson (9): There has been a ton of content written and spoken on these two and all I have to add is to watch Carroll’s playing time. In eight games since being promoted, Carroll has sat twice, both times against lefties. The Diamondbacks have some interesting outfield options they need to work through.

Michael Toglia (9): The Rockie has started in seven straight games (1B and OF) and has six home games this week. Across two minor league levels this season, he hit .249/.341/.511 with 30 HR and 7 SB. He has been respectable so far in the major with a .808 OPS with 1 HR considering he has only one home start.

The one issue with him will be strikeouts. He had a 30% K% in the minors this season and it’s up to 35% in the majors.

He’s a fine roster for this week but probably a drop on the road.

Sean Bouchard (8): Bouchard is another Rockie getting a look at what he can do in the majors. In AAA, he hit .300/.404/.635 with 20 and 12 SB. In the majors, he is hitting .167/.355/.292 with 1 HR. He was called up in June for a handful of games but since this promotion, he has made six straight starts.

A Rockie with six home games is always a decent add.

Jimmy Herget (8): Herget looks to be the Angels closer after recording the team’s last three Saves. He has been decent this season with a 2.63 ERA (3.29 xFIP), 0.95 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9.

Elvis Andrus (8): As much as it makes no sense, Andrus, who OAKLAND let walk, is in demand. It helps that the White Sox have no shame are leading Andrus, and his .305 OBP, off for six straight games. I guess he is hitting .303/.333/.500 with 3 HR so far with the Sox.

I don’t think the 34-year-old has found a new level and is only a deep league add.

Ken Waldichuk (7): The 24-year-old lefty has been a strikeout and walk machine in the minor and that trend continued into his major league debut where he struck out seven batters and walked four in 4.2 innings (93 pitches) against the Nationals. Our projections have him around a 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9. With the lack of starting pitching on the waive wire, I can see why these projections are interesting.

The strikeouts should continue to come with his 95-mph fastball and two decent breaking pitches. Here are his pitch comps.

Fastball (57% usage)

Change (22% usage)

Slider (18% usage)

The swing-and-miss isn’t an issue. Instead, his results will be determined by how much of the plate he gets.

Most likely, he’s a sit this week against the Braves but how he throws will determine if he gets used in a scheduled two-step the next week against Texas and Houston.

Spencer Steer (7): Steer has been great in the minors across two teams and two levels (.274/.364/.515 with 30 HR and 4 SB). He gets to his power without a major strikeout rate (18% MILB K%). The 24-year-old is now getting a chance to go out every day and play first or third (1.083 OPS in 12 PA).

Any team needing power should consider him.

Luis Patiño (6): I’ve never understood the hype behind Patino. In over 100 MLB innings, he has a 4.45 ERA, 5.33 xFIP, 8.4 K/9, and 4.1 BB/9. He has the deadly combination of too many walks and home runs (33% GB%). He can get away with one but not both.

The other issue is that he has lost over 2 mph off his fastball since his 2020 debut (96.8 mph to 95.7 to 94.6).

He hasn’t shown any improvements so ignore him until he does take a step forward.

Michael A. Taylor (6): The simple combination of playing time (started in nine of the last 10 games) and decent production (.274/.310/.390 with 4 HR and 2 SB in 2H) means Taylor is getting some love.

Nick Senzel (5): Senzel has struggled in the majors with a .673 career OPS. And he has hit a .582 OPS since the All-Star break with 1 HR and 3 SB. He has started six games in a row, but does it matter? Possibly people are trying to get ahead and get nine shi … bad games from him next week … if he is still playing.

Javier Assad (5): He has a 5.4 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9. His groundball rate is 44%. He throws a 93-mph fastball. He throws six pitches thereby violating the Yu Darvish Rule. None of those traits profile a pitcher who should be rostered.

The deal is that Assad has 0.00 ERA and 0.0 HR/9 in 10 IP. Maybe his home start against the Reds on Wednesday sucked in some fantasy managers.

Marcell Ozuna (5): He must be off double secret probation since he has started in three straight games after being on the bench for nine in a row.

Max Castillo (5): The 23-year-old Castillo, who the Royals obtained in the Whit Merrifield trade, has been decent as a starter in 17 IP (3.71 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, and 6.4 K/9). As a reliever, he had a 10.8 K/9 and 2.03 ERA. Time to dig in and find out who he is.

First, he has maintained his fastball velocity as he transitions between being a starter and a reliever. Starting with his fastball (48% usage), it’s a below-average pitch that does nothing (7% Swstr%, 43% GB%). Here are its comps.

His change (13% SwStr%, 62% GB%) and slider (14% SwStr%, 54% GB%) are average or better pitches bases on results and comps.

Change (36% usage)

Slider (16% usage)

The two breaking balls give him a solid foundation as a streaming option but the fastball needs to take a step forward.

Ildemaro Vargas (5): He’s been a steady contributor who has been on a bit of a hot streak. In the second half, he has hit .306/.343/.459 with 3 HR and 2 SB. Additionally, he has started 24 straight games while being qualified at shortstop and third base. A volume play who is at least a decent fantasy bench bat.

Cody Morris (5): Morris intrigued me so much that I went back and watched the shellacking the Mariners gave him in his first MLB start (2 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 4 H and 1 HR in 54 pitches). The first item that caught my attention was projections of about 10 K/9, 1.25 WHIP, and 3.75 ERA. Rarely does a prospect’s projection look this favorable. The next item was his upcoming schedule where he is in line to face the Royals this week and then have a two-start week against the Angels and Twins.

After watching his start, he has a dominant fastball but zero control over any of his other pitches. The lack of command is most likely from a shoulder injury that had him on the IL for most of the season. Starting with his fastball, here is a video of it.

Nice. And here are its comps.

This is a nice base. The rest was a mess, for example, here are two cutters with two completely different shapes.

I don’t even want to run comps with the pitch being so different. I added him in a few spots without the intention of starting him this week. I want to see how his start against Kansas City goes and then maybe use him for next week’s two-step.