Waiver Wire Report (9/3/22)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

Joey Meneses: Any team needing power (.350/.385/.612 with 7 HR in 109 PA) needs to be rostering Meneses.

Gunnar Henderson: Over two minor league levels, the 21-year-old hit .297/.416/.531 with 19 HR and 22 SB. So far, he’s started at second and short along with a home run and a steal.

Jake McCarthy: Finally, McCarthy’s roster rate broke 40%. Since the addition of Corbin Carroll, McCarthy (.284 AVG, 6 HR, 12 SB) has started all but one game.

Spencer Steer: Over three minor league levels this year, the third baseman has hit .274/.364/.515 with 23 HR. He’s already got 1 HR in 4 PA. I’m all in to see how he’ll perform.

Harold Ramírez: A solid batting average option (.332 AVG) with a bit of speed and power.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성: Great bench bat with no weaknesses (7 HR, 9 SB, .260 AVG) while qualified at three positions.

Oswald Peraza: In AAA, the 22-year-old was hitting .259/.329/.448 with 19 HR and 33 SB. The issue here will be playing time as Isiah Kiner-Falefa remains the starting shortstop according to Brett Boone.

Donovan Solano: He’s playing every day and is a decent source of batting average (.315 AVG).

Oscar Gonzalez: Since coming off the IL, he’s hitting .283/.303/.443 with 3 HR and 1 SB.

Manuel Margot: He’s starting every day while hitting .318/.354/.409 since coming off the IL. The power is lacking (.091 ISO and 0 HR) since the knee injury.

Bubba Thompson: A great stolen base play (10 SB, 0 CS) with no power (.051 ISO, 54% GB%).

Triston Casas: I have no clue how to value the 22-year-old. He was hitting fine in AAA (.273/.382/.481, 11 HR, 0 SB, 317 PA). His Steamer600 projects him to hit .254/.340/.458 with 23 HR. That is around replacement level for a first baseman and he needs to play every day to reach that level of production. In weekly leagues, I’m looking to add and bench this week to see how much he plays.

Michael Toglia: The first baseman made four straight starts after hitting .249/.341/.511 with 30 HR across two minor league levels. The Rockies have six games at home (vs MIL and ARI) so he might be worth taking a chance on (ranking high based on the home starts). Strikeout might be an issue with a 30% K% in AA and 29% in AAA.

Lane Thomas: Overall, he has been OK (14 HR, 5 SB, .237 AVG) while showing some second-half improvement (.652 OPS to .783 OPS).

Brendan Donovan: While Donovan has been a decent source of batting average (.290) and positional flexibility (1B, 2B, 3B, OF), his playing time has been sporadic at times. Right now, he’s playing but might sit against lefties. It’s tough to tell since they have faced just one righty in 10 of the last 11 games.

Isaac Paredes: The 23-year-old is one of the few power options (18 HR in 295 PA) on the wire. One issue is playing time with six starts (4 vs LHP, 2 vs RHP) in the last 10 games. The other is a .222 AVG (.233 xAVG).

Keston Hiura: He did improve his strikeout rate from 44% in the first half to 38% in the second. YEAH! He’s just destroying righties (1.049 OPS) and struggling against lefties (.558 OPS). Platoon play who is scheduled to face six righties next week.

Gavin Sheets: He is only rosterable against right-handed pitching (.775 OPS vs RHP, .492 OPS vs LHP). This upcoming week, he’s scheduled to face just four righties.

Nick Pratto: While delivering power (6 HR, .228 ISO) he is having problems making contact (36% K%, .197 AVG). His playing time might take a hit with Vinnie Pasquantino on a rehab assignment.

Rodolfo Castro: He has been decent (.248/.312/.426, 5 HR, 4 SB) in 154 PA but his playing time can be erratic.

Garrett Mitchell: He was promoted from AAA to play center field (.287 AVG, 5 HR, 17 SB across three minor league levels). In seven games, he has struggled at the plate (.133/.235/.333, 41% K%) with pitchers feeding him a steady stream of fastballs (72% of the time).

TJ Friedl: The speedster (6 SB) is on the strong side of a platoon with Stuart Fairchild. The Reds are scheduled to face five righties this upcoming week.

Albert Pujols: He’s cooled down and is hitting .192/.290/.385 with 1 HR over the last 10 appearances. Part of his struggles might be that the Cardinals faced nine righties in a row and Pujols started in five of them.

Jose Siri: He sits against most righties and the Rays face five this week. His stolen base total (10 SB) would be higher if he could get on base more (.266 OBP).

Corey Dickerson: Starting against righties while hitting .286/.319/.432 with 5 HR in 192 PA.

David Fletcher: He’s leading off for the Angels while getting no No Respect.

Wil Myers: Why? He has a .254 AVG and 3 HR in 211 PA. Ignore.

Franchy Cordero: He’s sort of playing half the time at first base.

Miguel Vargas: While he hit .304/.404/.511 with 17 HR and 16 SB in AAA, it might be tough for him to find playing time on the major league club.

Mark Mathias: While he is hitting .429/.467/.714 with 2 HR in 30 PA, he’s on the short side of a platoon with Kole Calhoun

Catchers

Yainer Diaz: For a catcher, he did great across two levels (.306/.356/.542 and 25 HR). The biggest question will be how much he plays in the majors.

Carson Kelly: After a hot July (1.042 OPS), he is just hitting .238/.340/.333 since then.

Hitting Prospects

Josh Jung: In 87 AAA PA, he’s hitting .284/.333/.580 with 6 HR and 1 SB.

CBS Batter Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change%
Harold Ramirez DH TB 36% 39% 3%
Carson Kelly C ARI 34% 36% 2%
Gunnar Henderson SS BAL 33% 61% 28%
Oscar Gonzalez RF CLE 32% 34% 2%
Manuel Margot RF TB 30% 32% 2%
Miguel Vargas DH LAD 30% 32% 2%
Brendan Donovan 3B STL 28% 40% 12%
Isaac Paredes 3B TB 28% 34% 6%
Ha-seong Kim SS SD 28% 33% 5%
Albert Pujols DH STL 28% 33% 5%
Joey Meneses RF WAS 27% 36% 9%
Josh Jung 3B TEX 26% 28% 2%
Jake McCarthy RF ARI 23% 41% 18%
Nick Pratto 1B KC 15% 19% 4%
Wil Myers RF SD 15% 17% 2%
Oswald Peraza SS NYY 12% 20% 8%
Keston Hiura 1B MIL 11% 15% 4%
Lane Thomas LF WAS 11% 14% 3%
David Fletcher 2B LAA 10% 12% 2%
Garrett Mitchell CF MIL 7% 14% 7%
Gavin Sheets RF CHW 7% 14% 7%
Bubba Thompson LF TEX 7% 11% 4%
Donovan Solano DH CIN 7% 9% 2%
Michael Toglia RF COL 3% 9% 6%
Jose Siri CF TB 3% 5% 2%
Rodolfo Castro SS PIT 2% 5% 3%
Corey Dickerson LF STL 2% 5% 3%
Franchy Cordero 1B BOS 2% 5% 3%
Spencer Steer 3B CIN 2% 4% 2%
TJ Friedl CF CIN 1% 8% 7%
Yainer Diaz C HOU 1% 3% 2%
Mark Mathias DH TEX 0% 2% 2%

Starting Pitchers

Ken Waldichuk: The 24-year-old lefty just had his major debut with a 95 fastball and a change and slider. He got six strikeouts in 4.2 IP. He’s always been able to generate strikeouts with a least a 10.0 K/9 at every minor league stop. One issue is that he can walk too many batters (4 in his debut). With so few starting pitcher options, he is a must-add.

Drew Smyly: Someone of his talent level should not be one of the week’s best options, but this is where we are this season. He’s got a 3.24 ERA (4.24 xFIP), 1.20 WHIP, and 7.4 K/9.

Kyle Bradish: A .396 first-half BABIP pushed up his ERA and WHIP. The BABIP has normalized and in the second half, he has a 2.66 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 8.4 K/9.

Cody Morris: In AAA, Morris had a 2.35 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and 17.6 K/9. He had all kinds of trouble in his first major league start (2 ER, 3 SO, 2 BB, and 1 HR in 2 IP). Our projections have him as a 3.50 pitcher going forward and I might take a chance on that information alone.

Hunter Brown: Brown was amazing in AAA with a 2.55 ERA, 11.4 K/9, and 1.08 WHIP. The issue right now is that while he’ll start against Texas on Monday, he is likely headed to Houston’s bullpen.

Bailey Falter: He has the makings of a decent pitcher (8.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9) except he gives up a ton of flyballs (31% GB%) and therefore home runs (2.0 HR/9).

Dean Kremer: A fine streaming option who cut his walks in half in the second half (2.6 BB/9 to 1.3 BB/9) dropping his xFIP to 3.63. He faces Toronto next week.

Austin Voth: Voth has been a pleasant surprise with the Orioles (2.72 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.7 K/9) but his talent has tailed off in August (6.4 K/9, 4.61 xFIP) with his fastball velocity heading down.

Brayan Bello: Bello’s results have been all over the place but one constant has been the walks (5.2 BB/9) that have pushed his WHIP up to 2.08. Should face Baltimore next week.

Clarke Schmidt: I can see the upside with an 8.7 K/9 from a 95-mph fastball. His issue is that he has allowed 4.6 BB/9 pushes up his WHIP. Streamer.

Jordan Lyles: While Lyles (4.25 ERA, 4.51 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, 7.3 K/9) got the shutout against Cleveland, he is in line for a two-start week against Toronto and Boston.

Spenser Watkins: By eliminating walks (1.0 BB/9) in the second half, he has become a streamable pitcher.

JP Sears: I’m not buying the 2.37 ERA induced by a .235 BABIP with runners on base and 0.6 HR/9. He’s scheduled to face the White Sox (Giolito) this next week.

Rich Hill: On the season, he’s averaging 75 pitches per start. Additionally, his stats (4.52 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 1.29 WHIP) are blah. Stream against weak opponents.

Roansy Contreras: His 3.57 ERA (4.37 xFIP) is hiding a ton of flaws. The biggest issue is his WHIP killing 4.1 BB/9. Also, his average fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph over the last 2 games (96.1 mph to 95.2 to 94.7). He’s a streamer and I’ll pass against St. Louis next week.

Dylan Bundy: He has not been great this season (4.51 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.4 K/9) but middle of a two-start week. My issue is that his fastball velocity is tanking (-4 mph from the season’s start). In August, he had a 4.50 K/9 and 5.38 xFIP. While he was able to maintain a 2.63 ERA, he could blow up at any time.

David Peterson: While Peterson has been decent (3.32 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9), he’s likely to lose his rotation spot when Carlos Carrasco comes off the IL.

Javier Assad: The miracle continues with no earned runs over 10 IP. Besides the low ERA, he’s providing little chance for a Win, 1.60 WHIP, and just 5.4 K/9.

Adrian Houser: Houser is a long reliever/sixth starter with a 5.02 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Ignore.

Tommy Henry: Henry goes out and gets lit up by the Phillies for seven runs in four innings and pushes his ERA up from 3.25 to 4.83 … and fantasy managers are still adding him.

Adam Oller: I’m not sure how a pitcher with a 2.0 K%-BB% has a spot in a major league roster, but Oller does. His profile is a complete mess (5.66 ERA, 5.98 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, 5.3 K/9).

CBS Starter Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change%
David Peterson SP NYM 38% 53% 15%
Jordan Lyles SP BAL 35% 38% 3%
Roansy Contreras SP PIT 31% 33% 2%
Dylan Bundy SP MIN 30% 35% 5%
Drew Smyly SP CHC 30% 32% 2%
Austin Voth SP BAL 22% 25% 3%
Dean Kremer SP BAL 20% 32% 12%
JP Sears RP OAK 19% 21% 2%
Adrian Houser SP MIL 18% 21% 3%
Brayan Bello SP BOS 17% 22% 5%
Spenser Watkins SP BAL 16% 26% 10%
Ken Waldichuk SP OAK 11% 20% 9%
Clarke Schmidt RP NYY 9% 13% 4%
Hunter Brown SP HOU 8% 18% 10%
Rich Hill SP BOS 7% 12% 5%
Tommy Henry SP ARI 7% 9% 2%
Kyle Bradish SP BAL 5% 13% 8%
Bailey Falter SP PHI 4% 7% 3%
Cody Morris SP CLE 4% 6% 2%
Adam Oller SP OAK 2% 4% 2%
Javier Assad SP CHC 1% 3% 2%

Relievers – Saves-based ranks

Jimmy Herget: Good reliever who is the closer.

Kyle Finnegan: OK reliever who is the closer.

Rafael Montero: Good reliever who is temporarily the closer.

Brandon Hughes: Good reliever who should get most of the Save chances.

A.J. Puk: Good reliever who is sharing the closer duties.

Nick Martinez: Good reliever who seems to be the closer until Josh Haders rights himself.

James Karinchak: Great reliever (now) who is next in line for Saves.

Adam Ottavino: OK reliever who is the backup closer.

CBS Reliever Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change%
Rafael Montero RP HOU 33% 47% 14%
Kyle Finnegan RP WAS 31% 35% 4%
A.J. Puk RP OAK 20% 22% 2%
James Karinchak RP CLE 13% 15% 2%
Brandon Hughes RP CHC 11% 20% 9%
Nick Martinez RP SD 10% 31% 21%
Adam Ottavino RP NYM 8% 10% 2%
Jimmy Herget RP LAA 1% 9% 8%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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alan fogelmember
1 year ago

Great stuff to read. Thanks for making my day! Have a great holiday!