Archive for Uncategorized

This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Rockies aren’t known for developing successful pitchers but the organization should benefit from a strong wave of arms.

1. Eddie Butler, RHP: Butler suffered through a down year — by his standards — as he struggled with injuries and consistency. Even so, he made three MLB starts and should enjoy much more time in The Show in 2015. In a bubble, prospect-mate Jonathan Gray might be the better pitcher, but Butler is better suited to pitching in Colorado due to his heavy stuff and ground-ball tendencies. If healthy, he has the ceiling of a No. 2/3 starter.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: Despite a veteran-heavy roster, the Dodgers may receive the biggest impact from freshman players in 2015 than any other club thanks to a solid mix of ceiling and polish.

1. Joc Pederson, OF: I’ve been cautious with my expectations for Pederson over the past few years but I’ve finally jumped in with both feet. The trade of Matt Kemp also helps clear some of the roadblock in front of him. He spent all of 2014 at the Triple-A level at the age of 22 and was a 30-30 player (homers-steals) while hitting more than .300. The only thing that might slow him down in the early stages of his big league career is his struggles with southpaws, but he made huge strides in that area last season. Pederson should open the year as the Dodgers’ starting center-fielder.

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Mike Podhorzer and Chad Young embarked on a journey–quest to find an offensive expected (x)HR/FB rate.

Based on batted ball distance and angle, you can go to Baseball Heatmaps (BHM) and find expected versus actual homers or verify HR/FB ratios through HR+FB average distance.

Here’s an uber simple descriptive balls-in-play (BIP) expected homer (xHR) formula:

xHR = PA*Contact%*OFFB%*HR/FB. Looking at the outcomes from last year we have the following list first ordered by the most likely regressions:

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We’ve already unveiled round one, and talked about Michael Brantley vs Ryan Braun, and there’s more analysis about specific picks coming.

But now it’s time to look at the second round as a thing. Because maybe in the early decade, it seemed like the sure things bled into the second round. Now it seems you can’t get out of the top ten without questions.

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Last week, I started a review of the players I am targeting to acquire and trade away, going position by position through the infield.

Today we look 12 more players – outfielders and starting pitchers who will factor heavily in my trade talks.

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I am a chronic off-season Mets rosterbater. Many of my potential Mets trade Tweets are far from rational. Some have included proposals for Troy Tulowitzki, which then leads to trading Daniel Murphy in order to open second base for a long-term competition between Wilmer Flores and Dilson Herrera.

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It’s become trendy in recent years to resolve stuff on January first. This totally new trend probably has something to do with Harry Potter or the one with the vampires.

It’s with this young tradition in mind that I resolve to slay mine foes. Not only is the statement cool in a German kind of way, but it’s also badass to slay things. Plus we just finished singing slaying songs whilst jingling bells. It has me in the mood.

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Based on stuff, there are very few starting pitchers that can hang with Gerrit Cole. 96 mph heat, plus three other pitches that rate well by peripherals — it’s very fun to watch. But look at the numbers at the end of the year, and the overall results are less whelming. With a team that has very defined (and so far, successful) ideas about pitching, is it possible The Pirates’ Way has sunk Cole’s fantasy value?

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The ottoneu off-season is well underway and I know many leagues have been wildly active, making the Padres and Dodgers look dull in comparison.

My leagues, however, have had slow developing trade markets, so rather than being able to report on what I’ve done, I am instead going to provide a list of players, by position, who I am targeting (or would be, if I had a need) in trade talks. For good measure, I’ll add in a player I am trying to trade away, too (or would be, if I owned him). We’ll hit the infield today and I will follow up with the OF and pitchers.

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In many different ways, Jon Niese is average. But when it comes to fantasy, average is not very attractive. Elite needs to be valued more highly. This sort of realization has repercussions for leagues of any sort and size.

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