Wilmer Flores – Just You Wait
I am a chronic off-season Mets rosterbater. Many of my potential Mets trade Tweets are far from rational. Some have included proposals for Troy Tulowitzki, which then leads to trading Daniel Murphy in order to open second base for a long-term competition between Wilmer Flores and Dilson Herrera.
In any case, Wilmer Flores is never included in my proposals. I believe he offers a ton of long-term value AND sufficient near-term value not to trade him.
First, David Wright’s shoulder may not hold up. Jeff Zimmerman provides this ominous MASH Report. Wilmer Flores should be kept as a third base solution if Wright misses significant time.
Second, Daniel Murphy might currently have the most perceived value to the Mets organization, but there are still a number of teams that require a better solution at second base, and Murphy is still a very good win-now solution for whichever team(s) do not land Ben Zobrist: Blue Jays, Nationals, Giants among others. Steamer projects Flores for .5 more WAR than Murphy as is and Flores has more room for growth.
Third, Dilson Herrera looks like he will be very good long-term, but he will only be 21 and could have contact issues for another year. It is on this point, where Wilmer Flores is already elite. Last year, for Major League hitters with 250+ Plate Appearances, Wilmer Flores had the 25th best contact rate (87.9%): .7% more than Robinson Cano and .1% less than Jonathan Lucroy for contact context.
While his Isolated Power was a tad-bit below the MLB average for the season, his ISO from mid-August onward was .205 relative to the MLB average of .135 or the average middle infielder ISO of .113 for the season. And let us not forget that he will only be 23 next year. He made 10% more contact than others 23 or younger last year.
Outside of Steamer, I haven’t seen one top 20 ranking for Wilmer Flores at shortstop yet (or any other infield position for that matter). Rotochamp ranked all positions deep enough where Flores showed up as the #32 shortstop and #37 second baseman. Faketeams has him as the 23rd best shortstop in their early position rankings. And without much hesitation, I think that Flores can outperform Asdrubal Cabrera, Brad Miller (based on playing time), Daniel Descalso (obviously) and Jed Lowrie whom are all ranked higher in Steamer by wOBA.
I think Wilmer Flores can provide value beyond Matt Carpenter next year contingent on his BABIP rebounding or if we are looking beyond runs produced (R+RBI-HR). Flores makes a little less contact, but has much more power potential. If we double Carpenter’s 2012 season, he basically averaged 11 homers and 3 stolen bases with a .305 batting average with an inflated .353 BABIP and .166 ISO for 2012 and 2013. Last year, Carpenter regressed back to a .318 BABIP and .103 ISO.
Steamer projects Flores for a .145 ISO and .270 BABIP. I will not call this Flores’ floor, but I will say that he has a much higher ceiling based on his BABIP potential. While he lacks speed (like Carpenter), a BABIP closer to his minor league average of .315 would mean a batting average closer to .275. While defensive shifts could limit his full BABIP potential, his batted ball spray looks healthy enough, and he already has a 20+% line drive rate in the majors.
Prior to Flores’ Triple-A season, which was even more impressive albeit in the Pacific Coast League, using a 250 Plate Appearance qualifier, Flores ranked #24 overall in Double-A with a .381 wOBA at 20 years old. The 23 hitters ahead of him averaged 24 years old. Only Jon Singleton was also 20 at the time.
Flores is relatively aggressive. Using 250 plate appearances as the qualifier, only 82 hitters had a higher swing%, but only two of those hitters made as much contact as Flores: Jose Altuve and Erik Aybar. Naturally, he has more power than both of them. Of those with a contact rate beyond Flores’, only Victor Martinez, Michael Brantley, Ian Kinsler, Martin Prado, Melky Cabrera, Stephen Vogt, and Jonathan Lucroy had a better ISO in 2014.
This is a recipe for success: a relatively aggressive approach at the plate with a great contact rate and above average, developing power. And as a middle infielder, he is a valuable fantasy asset. If Wright or Cuddyer miss time or Murphy gets traded, Wilmer Flores can consume a more impactful spot in the lineup which would up the counting stats. He was an excellent run producer in the minors with 75+ RBI’s as a 18-20 year old and 80+ RBI’s thrice.
Just you wait, but if he somehow winds up in Colorado as part of a Tulowitzki trade… pounce, because: Aggressive + Contact + Power + Colorado = we’ll have another Nolan Arenado on our hands:
| Name | Age | K% | Swing% | Contact% | SwStr% | IFFB% | HR/FB | GB/FB | GB% | FB% | LD% | BABIP | ISO |
| Nolan Arenado | 23 | 12.40% | 53.10% | 84.7% | 8.0% | 15.2% | 11.4% | 0.90 | 37.6% | 41.8% | 20.6% | 0.294 | 0.213 |
| Wilmer Flores | 22 | 11.30% | 49.60% | 87.9% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 0.99 | 39.7% | 40.2% | 20.1% | 0.265 | 0.127 |
Daniel Schwartz contributes for RotoGraphs when he's not selling industry leading thermal packaging. You can follow him on twitter @RotoBanter
Stole some of my thunder. Been working on a Flores piece for the Community section. I’m quite high on him this year to hit. In Colorado, yeah, he could be a High Avg, High HR monster.
Wil Flores being given away as not good enough reminds me of the Mets giving away Nelson Cruz, Kevin Mitchell, Quilvio Veras, Angel Pagan and a bunch of others who seemed to lack the ability to hit and/or filed enough and all four became solid players. Flores is insurance for Wright, a potential replacement for Murphy, and a seven inning shortstop if the Mets decide to wing it and see how the first half goes. I hate to think of seeing him as Texas or Oakland’s third baseman batting 26 91 .303 in 2017 or San Diego’s star second baseman with 20 87 .314 next to his name.
Seems like a big reach. He’s nothing more than a average backup.
His offensive projection suggests his ceiling as a righty Victor Martínez offensively while playing up the middle. His likely outcome is well below that but still projects him to be one of the better hitting 2B/SS in baseball. You’re not paying attention.
This beyond a reach, he’s a poor defender, and even the 94 wRC+projected by steamer is optimistic. Nothing about him suggests that he will be close to victor Martinez offensively.
Wow you know his ceiling because you saw him as a 21 yo in major league? He cannot possibly improve from his age 21 year?
With his advance hit tool, which was one of the best at every stop in the minor despite being youngest player at almost every level add to that his power tool and I think he is a very exciting mi prospect. It is not like the bar for a good hitting ss is very high
Everything I’ve heard since 2011 tells me there’s no chance he’ll reach the potential scouts saw in him when he was 16. Does that still mean somewhere above-averageish?
Seems like he has a .300/.350/500 ceiling with ~25 homers and a ton of doubles. That’s perfectly cromulent at 2B.
I’m guessing this projecton is for Cuban series league? because no chance he ever approaches that in the majors.
Why move away from Arenado as the comp? They have similar profiles and Arenado’s 2015 Steamer projection looks like the upside for Flores this season: .282/.326/.461 .344 wOBA and 103 wRC+. That may not be exciting in a 10 team league, but in deeper format like Ottoneu that’s a top 10 SS and great value.
@Lucky Strikes, the Arenado comp would be for 2015, not a ceiling 4 years down the road. I certainly wouldn’t him to expect him to come close to that in the near future, and probability is that he doesn’t reach that line ever, but that’s why it’s a “ceiling”.
Steamer projects Arenado with a line of .282/.326/.461 .344 wOBA and 103 wRC+ for 2015. I’d expect him (Arenado) to beat that pretty easily, but that same Steamer projection is in the realm of upside possibilities for Flores in 2015. In deeper formats a .344 wOBA and 103RC+ is a starting SS considering the SS position is so weak.
That is not a remotely realistic ceiling.
Cromulent? That would be perennial all-star.
Also, I agree completely; he was getting Miguel Cabrera comps when he was 16. He is no Miguel Cabrera and never will be but you don’t have to be Miggy offensively to be valuable at 2B or SS.
I’m thinking somewhere between matt carpenter and Michael Brantley without speed ie more power than carpenter obviously but might take a couple of years to really translate (like brantley’s 27yr old breakout last year)
More realistically than these bad comps he is Daniel Descalso and won’t be in the league for long
Descalso had an ~80 wRC+ in AAA. Flores had a ~130 wRC+ in AAA. It’s like you’ve forgotten which site you are on completely.
Nope. Descalso had a wRC+ in AAA of much higher than 80. Gotta look at that PA column, friend.
Descalso had a 98 wRC+ as a 23yo in AAA, and a 76 wRC+ as a 22yo in AAA.
Flores had a 129wRC+ as a 21yo in AAA and a 137wRC+ as a 22yo in AAA
they are not comparable, Descalso was barely a prospect, his ceiling is a bench bat from his AAA stats, Flores was younger and a superior prospect. Anyone comparing them is clueless
Matt, Your opinion on Wilmer Flores is very misinformed. He has all the marks of becoming an above average major league hitter. He’ll probably end up more valuable in fantasy than real life because of his defense and lack of walks, but the guy has big time fantasy potential. The number of guys who possess his contact rates with his ISO potential (.150-.175), is small and most of them are successful major league hitters.
Comparing him to Daniel Descalso is just trying to be obnoxious for the sake of being obnoxious. That’s an incomprehensible and outlandish comp.
Actually the Descalso comparison is much more justified that the ridiculous suggestions of Matt Carpenter or Brantley. The one big difference between Flores and Descalso is Wilmer’s superior O-Contact%, something I wouldn’t assume will be maintained at that same impressive level. I believe that Steamer’s .148 projected 2015 ISO is on the optimistic side, as I expect Flores to be more along the lines of ~.130.
Flores had a 129wRC+ as a 21yo in AAA and a 137wRC+ as a 22yo in AAA
Carpenter is actually a bad comparison, as he only reach AAA at 24yo where he had a 126wRC+, Flores was younger and better as a 21yo in AAA then Carpenter at 24yo
Brantly is closer, as he was a 101wRC+ as a 21yo in AAA and a 127wRC+ as a 22yo
Note Brantly as a 22yo in the ML had a 73wRC+, while Flores had a 88wRC+ as a 22yo in the ML
Jd
Are we talking about the same guy who hit 13hr in 55 games in aaa as a 22yo last year.
For reference Baez had 23hr in 104 games in aaa. The guy hit 18hr between savanah and st lucies 2 years ago too
Without data, you’re just another guy with an opinion.
Batted ball distance avg for Flores in 2014 – 272.40, 198th in MLB
considering he had an obvious different, first half and second half of the season using stats with the entire season isnt helpful.
This is an interesting article. Not sure there’s any reason to bump his draft value up any because of a possible Coors Field move.
What are the odds that Tulowitzki gets traded? Maybe 25%? Odds that Tulo is traded specifically to the Mets? Maybe 5-10%? Odds that Tulo traded to the Mets, Wilmer is part of the return, and the Rockies immediately start him make him a full time major leaguer? Small enough that I won’t be sweating it until there’s something much more concrete.
I’m saying Flores could be a top 10 shortstop with luck (from a fantasy perspective). Coors simply inflates his value and expeditedly so. I Dont think he’ll be involved in a tulo trade and I think tulo to the mets is a 25% chance – if healthy and during spring training. This gives mets confidence and providing the value that rox should want (syndy, plawecki and then some). Right now, this doesn’t happen.
Flores doesn’t steal, he doesn’t hit many home runs, and the value of making contact is dependent upon the quality of that contact.
Concur 100%. Point = there’s quality in his contact at SS. Level of contact and agressivnees means balls in play. Spray and BIP breakdown could be good enough to get back to MiLB babip levels of .305+
As Farley notes above, Flores is well below average in terms of the quality of his contact. There’s nothing in Wilmer’s history to even remotely justify your incredibly optimistic appraisal.
Geez. So much angst over a guy you can get in the 15 th round and slot into your MI position. Do that and the sun will rise tomorrow
I love Flores but this article is a bit over the top. He isn’t better than Matt Carpenter in fantasy; at least in an OBP league. But I would agree that he’s definitely being undervalued.
What interests me about Flores is his split vs RHP. He’s actually hit them. .290/.303/.440, .150 ISO last year in 208 PAs and he sucked in a short sample against lefties. .119/.212/.169 in 66 PAs. His Minor League splits do not foretell this to be the case. There was a clear 100 pt OPS lean towards LHP throughout the minors.
I think when he puts it all together he’s going to be a useful fantasy player, think .280, 20 HRs.. He’s got good bat speed and he’s built like a tree. He just puts the head of the bat on the ball at a major league rate. There’s no doubt in my mind he’s going to figure it all out and hit.
Perfect comp for Wilmer Flores = http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3336&position=2B/3B Expect any more than that and you’re highly likely to be disappointed.
Haha – 2 years older when full time. By contact, sure, but not nearly same power potential. In any case, what’s so bad about about that ’09?! That’s of value at SS considering he has more power potential.
Daniel, you blindly insisting that Flores has considerable power potential flies in the face of both his history and his recent batted ball data. Cheerleading a player with no statistical justification and against the available information is something that might be appropriate for BleacherReport but really doesn’t belong on FanGraphs. And it’s not just analytics that are against you when it comes to Wilmer’s power potential, as scouts downplay it as well. Baseball America described his eventual power peak as “fringe-average,” while two weeks ago Kiley McDaniel put his future value on the same level as Kirk Nieuwenhuis.
Baseball America never said that. When he was a prospect they regularly described his power as at least average or above average.
2014 Prospect list: “his minor league track record suggests he will hit for at least average power”
2013 Prospect list: “a natural power stroke to right-center field.”
He’s slugged well every stop since 2012 in Double-A. His second half ISO this past year was .151. Your assertion that he has no power is based on nothing. Bad batted ball distance numbers from the first half of the season when he was barely playing and making a lot of weak contact. You’re focusing on one half of a major league season while ignoring the second half of that season and 3 years of minor league data.
@Jalsonmi
You may look at his 2nd half and cherry pick numbers to prove your narrative, but I’ll take it a step further and say look at his April 2 game. Clearly from that game we can conclude he is one of the worst offensive performers of all-time!
jalsonmi, “fringe-average power” is exactly the phrase used in the latest edition of the prospect handbook. Feel free to apologize to me at your convenience. Considering that Wilmer never hit many home runs in the minors, ignoring his batted ball data to insist that he’s a future 20+ home run hitter with no justification whatsoever behind that is frankly stupid.
Zero logic in that comp. Just stop trying, you’re embarrassing yourself.
It is a very reasonable and probably accurate comparison. What’s embarrassing is thinking that mindlessly sucking up to a writer is preferable to employing critical thinking.
Share your critical thinking that arrived to the conclusion that Callaspo and Flores are even remotely similar players.
I’m not jdbolick, but here’s a comparison:
Flores Career: 20.5 LD%/42.4 GB%/37.1 FB%/8.9 IFFB%, 85.5 Contact%, 3.7 SwSt%, 35.6 O-Swing%, 65 Z-Swing%
Callaspo career: 20.5 LD%/42.7 GB%/36.8 FB%/8.5 IFFB%, 91 Contact%, 7 SwSt%, 24.5 O-Swing%, 65.1 Z-Swing%
Callaspo has definitively better plate discipline and contact skills, but Flores also hits the ball harder. Callaspo routinely fits near the bottom of the average flyball/homerun distance leaderboard, whereas Flores was around the 33rd percentile. Flores might have more power potential, but it’s only potential at this point.
I think the article’s outlook is too rosy and I don’t think he is a lock by any stretch of becoming a .280/20 HR player, but he has more potential than current-day-Callaspo in his future.
*Oops, switch the SwSt% where Flores has 7 and Callaspo has 3.7.
Steven
you know you are comparing the stats of a 22yo in major league with a veteran?
On the other hand you can compare Flores’s 88wRC+ as a 22yo in major league and 137wRC+ in AAA
Callaspo on the otherhand had a 130wRC+ as a 24yo in AAA and a 34wRC+ in major league and as a 23yo in AAA a 135wRC+ and a 52wRC+ in major league.
Callaspo is older and hit major league worst at 24yo than Flores at 22yo
@dovif
I was finding a major league comparison to what they had done so far, so their age didn’t matter in that regard. In projecting Flores’ future compared to Callaspo’s career, I stated that Flores had a higher ceiling.
I have literally never heard a single person say we should only look at the numbers and age when projecting a player forward into the majors. In general, scouts weren’t that enthused with his before his major league debut, and I have seen nothing to suggest he has a great chance to become a great hitter (look back at the numbers I posted). A 78 wRC+ from a 22-23 year-old has a very good chance be improved as he matures, but that is very different from saying his age means that he will immediately become a much better hitter next year (he called a 94 wRC+ his floor for all intents and purposes) because his babip will magically rise (Steamer doesn’t project it to, and his speed/power/batted ball profile don’t suggest a significant imminent increase) in addition to his power (because of minor league ISOs in the PCL where Las Vegas is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the PCL [and park factors aren’t included in Milb wRC+]).
As I’ve said, he does have a chance to become much better than his 2014 season, but I think the article is overly rosy over his chances to do so.
Steven
As I have said in my comparison. It is not easy to succeed as a 22 yo in ml. Flores has actually been quite good, probably top 25%. Actually age is often use to predict future success in the prospect community. A 24yo prospect dominating a ball is not as good prospect as a 20yo struggling in aaa and there are a lot of research that says. A guy who reach major by 21 and was near average will become a superstar. Age is very important in looking at prospect
As for Flores status as a prospect. He was not expected to stick at ss and most through he will end up at 1b. Still he was a top 100 prospect, whose ranking would be much much higher for a ss.
If you compare Bradleys age 22 year with his career you would also say he is a non prospect. Doing that comparison is useless. Players peak is 27-31, almost everyone will hit harder and be stronger as he ages. Comparing Flores with callespo is useless
I also love all the hate for Flores’ defense, which while it is not great, when he actually saw regular playing time late in the season He graded out as an average shortstop that almost always makes the easy play, but has trouble getting to the more difficult stuff.
If Flores gets full-time AB in 2015 he will be:
.274/.305/.447 15HR and i think this is on the cautious side
I am a Reds fan, I would take Flores in a heartbeat. Also as noted in the article, Flores is a good contingency plan for injury to 3B or LF or 2B. It can only help the team to let Flores show what he can do with full-time AB. If he proves his bat is ML worthy with some pop, it would raise his trade value even if you dont think he can stick at SS.
Of course you would. You’re a Reds fan. Your favorite team gave 500+ shortstop PA’s to Zack Cozart. Literally the worst player in MLB to get 500 PA’s.
At this point, Reds fans would take a ham sandwich and start it at SS in a heartbeat.
To be fair, Cozart is the best defensive SS in the league not named Andrelton. He does have value….just none of it offensive.
I think possibly he meant “take him” for his own fantasy team? (i.e. “I’m a Reds fan, not a biased Mets fan”) That’s how I read it anyway.
Very interesting article. I think Tulo to the Mets is a pipe dream for this year. The best thing for the Mets in my opinion is to sign Stephen Drew to complement Flores at SS, and if Drew can’t hit then Flores is the guy. Mainly, I’m saying Drew for his glove.
Interesting with the Arenado comp if he goes to Colorado as part of a Tulo package.
I do believe Flores has 15 HR power this year though, even at Citi Field. I would certainly take that.
Stephen Drew would be a horrible idea for the Mets. There’s a strong probability he’s not better than either Flores or Tejada in 2015. There’s a reason Steamer has him for a 82 wRC+. The majority of his career (outside of a couple blips of production) he’s been a very mediocre player.
Jeez. Do people ever rely on their eyes anymore for common sense perspective?
Power potential with those mechanics nearly all upper body is rather paltry.
With those faulty mechanics he shows no opposite field power, looks rather awkward hitting in that direction. Which teams will stupid enough to pitch down the middle or to his strength down and in rather than his opposite field weakness? Unless he changes his mechanics, his warts will be extremely exploitable, forcing him to right field as weak singles hitter with very, very poor foot speed. Again, use your eyes, people.
He’s an athletically-challenged SS with perhaps the worst wheels ever playing that position, is basepaths liability who has some work to do to keep his bat from warting out. This is the major leagues. Teams smell weaknesses and will exploit every bit they can. If he doesn’t change his mechanics, he’s a bench player.
Looking at the comment thread here, this piece should be entitled “Wilmer Flores – Baseball’s most polarizing fringe prospect.”
Well Said Corey.
As someone who seems to be stuck with him as a top 3 MI option in a dynasty league, I’m hoping for the more optimistic projections to come through (and to cobble together decent SS production from a combo of him and Lowrie next year)
This discussion is deceiving, as there really isn’t much debate about Flores in the scouting or analytics communities. Daniel and the handful of Wilmer cheerleaders in this thread are pretty much on their own.
New Years Resolution: Don’t ever become as jaded and rigid in my view of the world and how it works as jdbolick
Nice work, Dan. At some point, my deep league sleeper piece on Wilmer will hit ‘that site you and I used to work on together’ and I’ll probably be pointing some readers back your way for a bit more of the dig down. Hope your holiday season went well and keep on keeping on.
If he bats .270/15/60 he will be a stud shortstop for the Mets, even with his defensive liabilities.
Plain and simple….Wilmer Flores can hit but he is weak defensively. He needs to learn the outfield.